With free agency right around the corner, here are five NFL offensive veterans set to hit the open market that are vastly overrated.
The NFL season has officially concluded and now the focus of the league shifts to free agency and the draft. While teams will still be working on getting cap compliant by making cuts, the names of the free agents are starting to become clearer. While there are plenty of quality players available, free agency is a time where teams more often than not pay too much for an overrated player.
Here are the five most overrated free agents heading into this free agency period.
Free agency target Cam Robinson, T, Jaguars
Cam Robinson has enjoyed an up and down career with the Jaguars to this point in his career. He started off struggling mightily to stop pass rushers and was a liability to the team.
Time has helped him develop though, and while not an elite player at his position, Robinson has become an above-average starting left tackle. Fortunately for him but unfortunately to whoever signs him, average left tackles get paid handsomely.
Considering the importance the position plays, average linemen are commonly overpaid for in free agency. There is a real chance Robinson gets close to $20 million a season if he is a free agent which is far too much for a player of his caliber. Again, he is a fine starter but he isn’t some sort of premiere tackle.
That said, expect him to get paid like one, which makes him overrated heading into free agency.
Free agency target Cordarrelle Patterson
Cordarrelle Patterson has had one of the more unique careers of a player in recent memory. Drafted as a gadget receiver and returner for the Vikings in 2013, Patterson had a solid rookie season as both a receiver and return specialist.
Unfortunately, his offensive ability continued to regress, and it seemed as though he was only going to be a good return man moving forward. Then, the Patriots used him as a running back in 2018, which changed his offensive use going forward. That said, he still wasn’t seen as a premier offensive threat.
The Falcons used him as a running back and receiver out of the backfield to great success though, and now it seems as though Patterson should gain some interest from teams looking for that style of a player. He essentially jumped Mike Davis as the starter and was used regularly in the Falcons offense. He posted his best season as a professional as a result, as he nearly doubled his career-best total yardage in 2021.
He enters free agency with a lot of intrigue, but I have my reservations. While he can be a fine addition in a committee backfield, I doubt he can touch the ball as much as he did in 2021 and still be as efficient. As well, he will be 31 next season. While he doesn’t rely on pure speed to win as a player, his agility and quickness will likely begin regressing sooner than later.
If this was three or four seasons ago, adding Patterson as a running back/receiver hybrid would be fun and unique. It just seems like this move is too little too late, and while he should garner some interest and receive a nice deal, I’m doubtful he lives up to it. Expecting Patterson to be a starting quality back again and paying him as such is a mistake, and thus he makes the list as an overrated offensive-free agent.
Free agency target Evan Engram
Evan Engram exploded onto the scene as a rookie tight end, and he looked like the next big thing for the Giants. He combined great athleticism and good receiving ability to become a big target for New York’s offense. He has yet to achieve the same highs that he did as a rookie though, and now he enters free agency with more questions to a team than potential answers.
While Engram can still be an efficient receiver, injuries have limited his effectiveness on the field there. While he will stretch a defense, he lacks the same exposition that he entered into the league with. As well, his scoring has regressed in a major way. After scoring six times as a rookie, Engram has only found the end zone 11 times over the past four seasons.
While Engram flashed his earlier potential during a healthy 2020 season, he followed it up with a lackluster 2021 campaign. He can be a fine offensive threat, but he isn’t the game-changing receiver that George Kittle or Travis Kelce are. If he is added with the expectation that he will be a contributor on offense, not a vocal point, he should be fine. That said, he will likely want top dollar for his services.
What Engram brings to an offense is very reminiscent of Eric Enron from a few seasons ago. Both are fine receivers who can’t block, but their threat as receivers was vastly overrated. If Engram is added on a reasonable deal into an offense flush with other weapons, it should be a fine move. Unfortunately, it seems like Engram may fetch top dollar for an offense expecting an X factor.
Free agency target Teddy Bridgewater
One has to commend Teddy Bridgewater for coming back in the way that he has. After a horrific knee injury, he has found a way to go from injured to backup, and now back to a starter in the latter half of his career. He looked like a perfect fit early in the season when the Broncos were on fire, but once teams figured out his game plan he and that offense faltered.
Bridgewater is an average game-manager at this point in his career, and it seems like that won’t improve anytime soon. He can function in an offense with a good offensive line and a bevy of weapons, but other than that don’t count on him producing. Even in a good offense, he fails to push the ball. His conservative offensive style will limit most teams that he could play for.
While he would be a fine option for a season or two, it seems like he will get paid well this offseason. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Bridgewater land a deal somewhere in the $20-25 million a season range. With so many teams suddenly needing a quarterback, he should have a hot market. That said, that kind of money for a player like him is too much.
Even in a dynamic offense like the Buccaneers, Bridgewater would likely do more harm than good. His conservative play can win games when the rest of the team is clicking, but he can’t shoulder a load for a team on his own. Expect him to land with a team and start in 2022. That said, his financials shouldn’t be as much as many expect, and if they are, he will land into the overrated category this offseason.
Free agency target Chris Godwin
Let me make this clear from the start; Chris Godwin is a good football player and a good receiver. He runs sharp routes, has good athleticism, and can work out of the slot or on the outside. The issue I have with him is that Godwin has never had to be “the guy” for a team to this point. He has always split reps with threats like Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, and O.J. Howard before his fall-off.
He enters free agency as one of the hottest names and likely the top receiver. He may get in the range of $20-million a season and be a top-five paid receiver by the time the market settles. To me, that is an overpay for a player of his caliber. While he would still be an effective receiver, it shouldn’t be to the tune of a top contract.
Add in the fact that he has been a part of dynamic passing attacks for the past three seasons and Godwin makes the case for overrated. Tom Brady was an obvious aid to this offense while Jameis Winston, despite his mistakes, was still putting up massive yards in his last year with Tampa Bay. A worse offense where he is the only top threat may lead to some regression for Godwin.
Will Godwin bust out as a free agent? Probably not but expecting him to play in the caliber of where he is going to get paid is a different story. If he goes into an offense where he is a co-top target, he should do well. That said, if he goes to a team that pays him a lot to be their go-to guy, don’t be surprised to see him not live up to his deal.
As free agency draws near, the league will be prepared to throw its cap money around. While many players added will become key starters for their team, these five names seem like potential overpays. While each can be a serviceable player, don’t be surprised if each receives a deal far more than what their value is and thus become overrated.