With NFL Free Agency right around the corner, we’re taking a look at three NFL teams who are most likely to overspend this offseason.
The month of March marks the end of the 2021-22 NFL calendar and the beginning of a new year and very busy NFL offseason.
The 2022 NFL Combine has already come and gone, which means we now turn our attention to the upcoming NFL Free Agency period, set to begin March 16 at 4 p.m. ET.
The NFL’s tampering period is set to begin at 12 p.m. ET on March 14. This is a time in which unrestricted free agents can empower their agents (and their agents only) to negotiate with front office personnel.
Players and coaches can join in on the negotiations once NFL Free Agency begins at 4 p.m. on March 16.
Every team has hopes of having a splashy free agent signing, but that takes a little bit of luck and a shrewd front office.
Some teams feel like they have to overspend in order to land a free agent. Sometimes it’s worth it if the player is a Pro Bowl-caliber talent and a true game-changer.
Then there are teams who feel that they have to make some signings out of either desperation or pressure from the fan base.
We’re taking a look at three teams who are most likely to overspend once free agency begins.
NFL Free Agency overspend candidate No. 1: Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts, who finished second in the AFC South last season with a record of 9-7, have made their fair share of questionable decisions in the past couple of seasons.
This is a front office that traded away multiple first-round picks for a damaged quarterback in Carson Wentz. For that reason alone, it’s hard to trust this front office.
Couple that with reports stating the Colts may already be looking for an upgrade at the quarterback position— historically one of the most expensive positions— makes them a strong candidate to over-pay for free agents this offseason.
Multiple reports have stated that the Colts are exploring trade options for current starter Carson Wentz and could even release him if a suitor is not found.
The team may have an eye on drafting their quarterback of the future in a draft class that has several big names.
The Colts do not currently own a pick in the first round, but they could look for their quarterback in rounds two or three. They could target someone like Carson Strong, Desmond Ridder or Brock Purdy, who all project to go at some point after the first round.
Selecting one of those guys would not preclude them from signing someone like Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota for two to three seasons while the rookie learns and gets acclimated to the NFL.
Both players will be looking to command more money than their previous deals, despite their inconsistent play and injury history.
Mariota last signed a two-year $17.6 million in March 2020. Winston signed a one-year $12 million deal in 2021.
As desperate as the Colts are to move on from Wentz, would they really be willing to spend $10-$15 million on yet another question mark at quarterback?
Beyond the quarterback, there are other areas of need like the offensive line and receivers. Indianapolis may need to go deep into the pocketbook of owner Jim Irsay to lure talent to a traditionally unsexy free agent destination.
If the Colts can’t retain T.Y. Hilton and miss out on top-tier wide receiver free agents like Chris Godwin, Allen Robinson, and Will Fuller, they may have to overpay to get a second-tier free agent in Indy.
NFL Free Agency overspend candidate No. 1: LA Rams
The Los Angeles Rams, fresh off an impressive win in Super Bowl LVI in their home stadium, are another prime candidate for teams that may be overpaying for talent this offseason.
The Rams have some key pieces that helped them win a championship that expects to be paid and paid well.
Reports state that starting QB Matthew Stafford is looking to receive an extension near the $45 million per year mark. That’s quite a bit more than the $41.4 million per year market value he has, according to Spotrac.
Will the Rams overpay to keep one of the game’s top gunslingers happy and in La-La land for the next three or four seasons? It’s tough to project, but they absolutely should.
The same report has already stated the Rams are hoping to extend Stafford for somewhere closer to $35 million per year, which is still a significant bump from the $27 million per year on his current deal.
Under his current deal, Stafford is the 13-highest paid quarterback in the NFL. A deal of $35 million per year or more would make him one of the top-five highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL, according to Spotrac.
The Rams also have to make decisions about whether or not to re-sign Aaron Donald, who will be entering his age 31 season. Reports from ESPN state Donald wants to be compensated like he’s the best player in the league.
The problem is, there are several players who have surpassed him as contending for the title of Best Defender in the NFL. Aaron Donald was tied for the seventh-most sacks last season (12.5), tied for the seventh-most forced fumbles (4). It’s tough to remain at the top of the mountain and Donald is slowly losing his grip. The Rams would be wise not to make him the highest-paid defender in the NFL.
Then, there’s the conundrum of re-signing Von Miller. There are plenty of interest and landing spots for the two-time Super Bowl champion and he still has a few years left in the tank. But his next contract is going to pale in comparison to his last contract, which was valued at $114 million over six years. Spotrac estimates his market value to be somewhere in the vicinity of $10.5 million per year.
There’s a decent chance the Rams will have to pay a “run-it-back” tax to make sure these cornerstone pieces are happy, paid, and ready to return to defend their championship.
NFL Free Agency overspend candidate No. 3: Cleveland Browns
Will the Cleveland Browns be able to satiate their rabid fan base, fix their weak spots on both sides of the ball, and give QB Baker Mayfield a fair shake in what could be his final season as the signal-caller in The Land?
Mayfield has endured a massive amount of criticism and has given the team mixed results. Will the team do right by him and get him the help he needs to compete and be successful next season?
The former Heisman Trophy winner is playing without a contract extension and could be one of the hottest free agent quarterbacks in years if he has a great bounce-back season in 2022.
It starts with keeping Mayfield on his feet and injury-free. To do that, the Browns need to bolster their offensive line. Last season, Mayfield endured six games in which he was sacked three or more times last week, including an eye-popping nine times against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
If the Browns miss out on top-tier offensive linemen in free agency, they may have to overspend to get someone like Brandon Scherff, Eric Fisher, or Trent Brown, which all come with their fair share of red flags.
It’s a talented pool of linemen, but these players, in particular, will probably expect to be paid like top-tier linemen. However, it may not be worth it, given their injury history.
The Browns have already placed the franchise tag on top free agent David Njoku. There’s talk that they could be negotiating a long-term extension to make him one of the top-five highest-paid tight ends in the NFL, according to the NFL Network.
That would be paying quite a bit based on potential. 2021 was the first time Njoku played 16 games in a season since 2018. He recorded 36 catches for 475 yards and 4 TDs in 2021— placing him right in the middle of the league’s tight ends, statistically speaking.