The Deshaun Watson saga is over in Houston, as he’s now set to join the Cleveland Browns. But before he actually joins the Dawg Pound, there are so many factors coming into play for one of the biggest trades in NFL history.
Take a deep breath Browns fans, it looks like you have a new QB1. Ironically, after it was reported Cleveland was out of the Deshaun Watson race late Thursday, the enigmatic signal-caller forced an audible to land in The Land.
Not only did Cleveland commit to Watson, but the Browns also gave up three first-round picks, a third- and a fourth-round pick in exchange for him and a fifth-rounder. But Cleveland also gave him a deal spanning five years for $230 million guaranteed, which is far and away the biggest in NFL history.
Those $230 million guaranteed are over $100 million more than Aaron Rodgers’ $101.4 million from this week.
So let’s dive into the ins and outs of the deal, as well as the many different angles to look at for the move.
Deshaun Watson trade: Football Angle
Let’s start with the football side of things. Joining one of the most talented rosters in football, Watson comes to the Browns after three Pro Bowl selections as a Texan.
During his most recent season in 2020, the Clemson product led the NFL in passing yards (4,823) to go along with career-bests with 33 touchdowns, 70.2% completion rate, and a 112.4 passer rating, going against a career-low seven interceptions.
One of the top dual-threat QBs in the league, Watson also totaled 444 rushing yards that season, his third consecutive season going over 400 yards.
In Houston, Watson also led the Texans to two playoff appearances, including a win over the Buffalo Bills in the Wild Card round of the 2019 season.
Watson will join an offense that has an offensive line that ranked eighth in football last season, according to PFF.
He’ll have arguably the best RB tandem in the league in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, as well as Amari Cooper out wide after the Browns acquired him for Day 3 draft picks. Cooper, a four-time Pro Bowler, hauled in 68 receptions for 865 yards last season and tied a career-high with eight TDs.
The Browns also have talented compliments out wide with Donovan Peoples-Jones, Anthony Schwartz, and the newly acquired Jakeem Grant, and a deep TE group as well, featuring David Njoku and Harrison Bryant.
Defensively, the Browns were streaky in ’21 (5th in yards allowed, 18th in points allowed), but they are also loaded with talent on that side of the ball. Three-time All-Pro DE Myles Garrett, two-time Pro Bowl CB Denzel Ward, safety John Johnson III, and rookie standouts Greg Newsome and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah all return to a unit that has tremendous upside going into DC Joe Woods’ second season in that role.
Watson will also play in an offense led by 2020 NFL Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski and OC Alex Van Pelt.
Now the question that many are asking is where is Baker Mayfield headed? The 2018 No. 1 overall pick poured his heart out in a message to the city of Cleveland and requested a trade from the Browns before Watson was brought in. So here’s what may be happening on his end.
Deshaun Watson trade: Baker Mayfield’s Angle
Baker Mayfield was not a part of the Watson trade, meaning Cleveland will look for a viable destination for the QB entering his fifth NFL season. There’s no question Mayfield is a polarizing figure, and it isn’t without merit.
Good Baker has been tremendous. The 2017 Heisman Trophy Winner had a phenomenal rookie campaign, tossing a then-NFL record 27 TD passes, against 14 INTs, with 3,725 passing yards, a career-high 63.8% completion rate, and 93.7 passer rating. Year three was also good for Baker, as he posted 26 TD passes against eight INTs, as well as 3,563 yards and career-bests with a 95.9 passer rating and 65.5 QBR.
Mayfield and the Browns were able to make the postseason for the first time since 2002 and won their first playoff game since 1994.
But the bad Baker has reared his head as well, including a 21-INT season in 2019, as well as a disappointing 2021 season where the Browns went 8-9 and he threw for 17 TDs and 13 INTs.
It must be noted that his ’21 season was injury-riddled, but that does not take away from the fact that he has not shown as much promise as Watson throughout his career.
So where could he end up? Mayfield suggested Indianapolis as his preferred next destination, but who knows if Cleveland would be willing to do that. I think there’s really only one other place that makes sense for Mayfield if he does not get sent to the Colts; Seattle.
Obviously, the Seahawks are looking to reboot a bit in the post-Russell Wilson era. They may have gotten Drew Lock in the Russ trade, but let’s not act like bringing Mayfield in wouldn’t be an upgrade over him. And after sending Wilson to Denver, Seattle has the draft picks to play with, as they enter next month’s draft with eight pending selections.
Thinking about Seattle as well, Mayfield would not be seeing too far of a drop-off in talent on offense. No, the Seahawks offensive line is not in the same class as the Browns, but whoever is under center for them next season will have Pro Bowlers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, as well the ultra-talented Noah Fant at TE.
Rashaad Penny could also return after rushing for over 130 yards in four of his last five games played down the stretch in 2021.
I could see the ‘Hawks sending one of their second-round picks and a fifth-rounder in a package for Mayfield. Plus, I could see Mayfield fitting well into Shane Waldron’s system as a disciple of the Sean McVay/Kyle Shanahan tree (a system Stefanski similarly runs in Cleveland).
Okay now that that’s behind us, let’s look at the legal side of it all for Watson and the Browns.
Deshaun Watson trade: Legal Angle
Although Watson was cleared of criminal charges in his defense against sexual assault and harassment allegations by 22 women, there are still civil suits that need to be resolved on this matter.
No, Watson will not face jail time, but he should be expected to be punished by the NFL. The league is still doing its own investigation on the matter, plus Watson will have a tough time avoiding the NFL’s new personal conduct policy, despite swerving the Commissioner’s exempt list over the past year.
Here is the NFL’s policy as to what could happen following its investigation on the matter:
"An individual is subject to discipline under the policy if the person is determined to be guilty of a criminal charge or if the NFL investigation demonstrates the person engaged in conduct prohibited by the policy. Depending on the nature of the violation and the person’s record, discipline may be a fine, suspension, community service, or a combination of the three. Violations involving assault, battery, domestic violence or sexual assault will result in a baseline six-game suspension without pay, with more if aggravating factors are present, such as the use of a weapon or a crime against a child. A second offense will result in banishment from the NFL."
So who knows what the league may find with this ongoing investigation. Many believe that even though Watson proved to be exonerated criminally, the nature of these allegations with misconduct against massage therapists will most likely end with some form of suspension for Watson.
Six games is traditionally the benchmark for allegations of this nature, but will he get more? Less? We must wait and see.
Next up on our list, is the money angle.
Deshaun Watson trade: Money Angle
At $230 million, Watson’s deal is the third highest in the league in total value, just behind Patrick Mahomes (10 years, $450 million) and Josh Allen (6 years, $258 million). The $46 million average annual salary is right behind Rodgers’ $50.27 million.
The zaniest piece of it all, though, is the $230 million in guaranteed money. It is a part of a trend that has come about in recent years — Rodgers ($101.4 million), Allen ($100 million), and Dak Prescott ($95 million) each set a new record in terms of guaranteed money when they all got new deals over the past year. But nothing compares to Watson’s deal.
Even for a prime, superstar QB, who’s only 26 years old, Watson’s deal is so unprecedented it’s really not comparable to any football contract. In fact, his deal is actually similar to one of an NBA superstar. With his five-year, fully-guaranteed $228.2 million deal kicking in this season, reigning NBA Finals MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo has a deal much more similar to Watson’s.
So this deal will have huge ramifications for other players, particularly QB’s looking to strike gold. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson could argue for money in that same range after winning the 2019 NFL MVP award, being named to two Pro Bowls, as well as posting a 38-15 record as a starter (including the playoffs) with three playoff appearances.
If Justin Herbert adds to a resume that has a Pro Bowl selection and NFL Rookie of the Year honor, or if reigning Comeback Player of the Year Joe Burrow can get the Bengals back to a Super Bowl, who’s to say they don’t ask for deals in the Watson zone? What if Kyler Murray breaks through and adds to his honors that include two Pro Bowl trips and 2019 Offensive Rookie of the Year award?
This trade was monumental on many fronts, but with how different this bag looked, NFL players should be thanking Watson for helping them get paid.
Deshaun Watson trade: Final Thoughts
When considering all that went into this deal, it’s hard to blame the Browns for making this move. In a true player-for-player comparison, Cleveland upgraded from Mayfield with Watson. And considering how butt hurt the 2018 No. 1 pick seemed, it was in the Browns’ best interest to move on from him.
Now football aside, the move itself is not the most popular one in terms of public perception. Some have voiced their opinions as to why the Browns essentially sold their souls at the expense of competing for championships. But at the same time, can we really be surprised by that from this Cleveland franchise?
This is the same team that brought Hunt on after a gruesome video surfaced of him assaulting a woman. This same team put up with Josh Gordon’s issues across seven seasons. These same Browns had Sheldon Richardson from 2019-20, a player who’s had his off-field struggles as well.
Cleveland even had the Garrett on-field helmet debacle with Mason Rudolph in ’19, which some felt was worth a lifetime ban.
The Browns seem content with handling players who may come with some baggage. Even on a smaller scale, that’s why it makes sense that they brought players like Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry, despite some of the hoopla coming in with said names.
Maybe Watson not being criminally charged was the right decision. Maybe the NFL will find that there was wrongdoing on his end in this whole situation. Who knows. But all I do know is that this is a day that will go down in NFL history.
Now the question is will that be groundbreaking history or infamy? Only time will tell.