With the NFL Draft almost upon us, here are five potential first-round picks that could see a draft day tumble.
With the NFL Draft being far from an exact science, it isn’t uncommon to see plays many project highly to slide.
Sometimes this is due to the draft community overvaluing them, other times it is because of underlying behavioral or health issues but slides from top prospects aren’t unique.
Here is a list of the five most likely NFL Draft sliders in the first round.
2022 NFL Draft prospect Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
No one can argue against the impact that Kenny Pickett had in his final season with the Panthers. He went from an average quarterback to a great one and help lead his team to one of their best seasons ever.
This has since launched his draft stock to the moon. That said, there is a real chance Pickett ends up sliding this year.
While Pickett’s college play was impressive, he is pretty much developed already as a passer. That means whoever selects him is getting a relatively pro-ready quarterback with a limited ceiling.
There are teams that can want that instant starting ability, but with his upside as low as it is other teams will likely pass.
The only way, in my opinion, that he doesn’t slide is if Carolina takes him at sixth overall, which is a distinct possibility. They need an impact starter now, as the coaching staff doesn’t have the luxury of developing a prospect.
If they go elsewhere though, there isn’t an obvious team that would select Pickett. A slide to the tail-end of the first round and potentially even out of it altogether is a possibility. Don’t be surprised to see him fall down the draft if the Panthers look elsewhere in the first.
2022 NFL Draft prospect Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
At one point in time, Tyler Linderbaum was viewed as the top interior lineman in the draft and a lock to be taken in the first 15 picks of the first round. Fast forward to now, and there are quite a few questions with the Iowa product that has teams pausing.
He will likely still go in the first round, but it will likely be later than most expect.
When putting on his tape, you see a technically sound and aggressive blocker. Based on that alone, it was easy to see why most teams viewed him as a top first-round option.
His measurements are going to limit him as a pro though, as he has short arms and is undersized to be a dominant lineman at the next level.
The other issue for Linderbaum is that Zion Johnson has seen his stock surge during the pre-draft process. He is better built for the NFL, and he took some snaps at center during the Senior Bowl.
There is a good chance he has leap-frogged Linderbaum on most draft lists. As a result, Linderbaum could be heading towards the late first round before he is selected.
2022 NFL Draft prospect Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
Despite this being one of the deepest receiver classes ever, most viewed Treylon Burks as the favorite to be the top receiver off the board in 2022.
The Arkansas product was a versatile weapon that won from all over the field and could damage a defense in a variety of ways.
Most expected some strong testing numbers on top of all of this to really cement Burks as a top name in the NFL Draft.
Those testing numbers never came to be, and now many are doubting Burks’s ability to translate to the pro game. Considering Arkansas used him akin to Deebo Samuel as a receiving and rushing weapon, straight-line speed could be overrated here.
That said, Burks struggled in the agility drills as well, further limiting him as an athlete.
With the receiver class being so competitive, it seems likely that Burks falls late into day one and potentially even out of the first round entirely.
A team will have to figure out a way to use him despite his athletic number being so poor. For a receiver with so much hype earlier in this process, Burks could be set for a free fall in the draft.
2022 NFL Draft prospect Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson
One of the better prospects in this class, Andrew Booth has all of the makings of a great cornerback in the NFL. He has the size and athleticism to hold his own against pro receivers as well as the coverage ability to want in a top cornerback.
His game doesn’t have many flaws, yet he seems to be getting slept on as of now.
The reason for this potential fall stems from the other top cornerbacks in the class. Ahmad Gardner is unquestionably the top cornerback in this class, and to me, it isn’t close.
The issue is that Derek Stingly has seemingly restored himself as a top prospect due to his tremendous pro day. Add in the rise of a name like Trent McDuffie, an option for both the slot and outside, and Booth may struggle to go as high as his talent suggests.
If Booth slides, it will be likely due to other cornerbacks around him having their names called before his as opposed to his own talent letting him down.
He should still land somewhere in the first round, but his tape suggests that he is a legitimate top-15 talent in this class. With the rise of other prospects in this class though, Booth may experience a draft-day slide.
2022 NFL Draft prospect Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
At one point in time, Kyle Hamilton was perceived as the top overall prospect in this class and a lock to go within the first three picks. Fast forward to now, and there are some that believe Hamilton could fall into the 20s after a disappointing pre-draft process.
At a bare minimum, he is no longer viewed as a lock to be a top name in this class.
Hamilton is a freaky player with impressive size and coverage ability. On tape, he can play sideline to sideline and can line up anywhere in a secondary. He is effective in the box, playing deep, or manned up against top tight ends.
While his tape backs him up as a top prospect, his athletic testing did him no favors.
No, Hamilton isn’t unathletic, but his overall speed numbers were far lower than most expected. Add in the general devaluation of safeties in today’s game and you suddenly have a prospect who isn’t the top name anymore.
There is a real chance Hamilton falls out of the top 10, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him fall into the teens. His poor athletic tape has cost him, as a lot of teams don’t view him as the best talent in the class anymore.
NFL Draft Day slides are a natural thing in the NFL. Some players are overhyped or have unknown concerns that cause them to fall later into the first round than most expect. Keep an eye on these five NFL Draft prospects, as they have all the makings of the next group of players to go later than most expect.