We take a look through some of the best bets for the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, including taking the under on QBs in the top 32.
While many view the NFL Draft as a time for their favorite team to hit it big on a franchise player or fill positional holes and turn their team into a Super Bowl contender, the NFL Draft is also one of the most underrated opportunities for sports betting.
While picking a spread or over-under is heavily based on personal analysis, betting the draft is much more technical. For example, if you think a team will win a game, you bet them on the money line and hopefully see positive results in a game with no predetermined result.
However, with the draft, the team picking gets to decide the outcome, and it becomes your job to arrive at the same conclusion as them.
This means that staying tuned to news, reading the market, and looking at positional needs is much more effective when betting on the draft than doing your own player analysis and putting it in the hands of these teams to arrive at the same conclusion as you.
It is also worth noting that lines move fast when betting on the NFL draft, so if you like a bet you should attack it before it is too late. With that being said, here are five of my favorite bets that I have placed for the upcoming 2022 draft, with all odds courtesy of WynnBet.
Under 3.5 First Round Quarterbacks Selected in the 2022 NFL Draft (-220)
A common theme in almost all of my NFL Draft bets is the fading of this quarterback class. What better way to do that than take the under on first-round quarterbacks selected, despite it being quite juiced to the under?
Instead of looking at how this bet can be, let us see where it can lose. The top three consensus quarterbacks are Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett, and Desmond Ridder. Assuming all three of these players get picked, which is a large assumption, Matt Corral would likely be the quarterback that pushes this bet to the over.
First and foremost, I think taking a quarterback in the top ten of this year’s draft would be a huge mistake. The prospects are simply not NFL ready and would be best suited on a team with a serviceable starting quarterback, not a team that would need them ready to go Week 1.
I project the first quarterback to go at Pick No. 20 to the Steelers, or possibly Pick No. 19 to the Saints. From there, I could see the Titans taking a quarterback at Pick No. 26, leaving the Detroit Lions as the only quarterback-needy team left in the first round.
If three quarterbacks are off the board at this point, I believe Pick 32 for Matt Corral would be a huge overpay and the Lions could simply take him at Pick No. 34 if they wanted.
With all that being said, I love the under on 3.5 quarterbacks selected up to -300 and would take under 2.5 quarterbacks as well if I was seeing around +200.
Over 6.5 First Round Wide Receivers Selected (-105)
For as weak as the quarterback class is, the wide receiver class certainly makes up for it a bit. Similar to the quarterback prop, you have to ask yourself who the seven receivers are that will make this prop hit.
There are five easy ones, as Wilson, Williams, London, Olave, and Burks all easily project to be first-round guys.
This leaves Jahan Dotson, George Pickens, Skyy Moore, and Christian Watson as potential first-round receivers. While I am a fan of all of these players, especially Skyy Moore, what really pushes me to believe two or more of these players will go in the first round are the teams selecting at the end of the first.
The Chiefs will almost certainly take a wide receiver with one of their two picks and the Packers are -150 to draft a wide receiver with their first pick. That alone gives this prop value at -105, but I think teams like the Cardinals and Cowboys could also be in the market for a wideout with Kirk and Cooper both departing in the offseason.
We have seen the market shift to value rookie wideouts more with the current price of receivers and the emergence of young talent like Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, so I love the price of -105 on over 6.5 receivers.
Falcons First Pick to be a Wide Receiver (-120)
These next two picks have a similar theme, as I believe it would be a huge mistake for the Falcons to take a quarterback with their first pick, and they desperately need help at the wide receiver position.
With Calvin Ridley being suspended and Russell Gage being shipped off to the Bucs, the Falcons easily have the worst wide receiver room in the NFL.
I do think the Falcons pull the trigger on Garrett Wilson here, so I also like the looks of his unders and Wilson to be the first wide receiver drafted, but I think this prop gives you the best value overall, and can only go awry if the Falcons manage to trade out of their No. 8 pick.
Panthers First Pick to be an Offensive Lineman (+100)
Similar logic here, it is a two-horse race for the Panthers between offensive lineman and quarterback. If the Panthers choose to take a quarterback here, Matt Rhule can say farewell to his job, as he will be en route to another five-win season.
Additionally, the Panthers need offensive line help and should have plenty of strong options in front of them at No. 6 overall.
My guess would be Charles Cross, who they have expressed lots of interest in over the offseason, so his under at 7.5 is also a wise bet. Just like the Falcons pick, I think if this one loses it will be due to trade.
Vikings First Pick to be a Cornerback (-120)
It is no secret that the Vikings need help at the cornerback position, and the No. 12 pick looks like the perfect place to change that.
They have not kept it a secret that they are interested in Washington’s Trent McDuffie, and he will likely be on the board for them as the third cornerback off the board.
More importantly, McDuffie represents the last cornerback in the top tier, so the Vikings will be very eager to grab him, and may even trade up a few picks if it looks like he may go off the board. At -120, I am more than happy to lay the juice as I believe the only way this loses is a cornerback run in the single-digit picks.