Taking a way-too-early look at the NFL free agency class of 2023. Where could big-name players like Deebo Samuel, Lamar Jackson, and Tom Brady land?
Just when you thought things couldn’t get any crazier…the initial 2023 NFL Free Agency predictions start popping up.
I’m not sure we’ll ever see anything quite like the madness that has been the 2022 NFL offseason, but there’s certainly a chance it could simply be the start of a new way of doing business in the NFL rather than a rarity.
The 2023 NFL offseason will include much better quarterback prospects coming out in the NFL Draft, and we could see some more significant player movement at the wide receiver position yet again.
The floodgates at that position group have been opened, no question.
In this post, we’re going to attempt to predict some big moves in the 2023 NFL Free Agency period, almost an entire year out.
It should be fun to look back on next offseason but for the time being, this can serve as an early look at what players are realistically going to be hitting free agency, which players are likely to be tagged, and what players could be tag-and-trade candidates.
I want to use a combination of realism and boldness with this post, so there will be some predictions in here that seem vanilla but there will be others that might feel very off-the-wall.
2023 NFL Free Agency predictions for 24 top players
2023 NFL Free Agency: Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: Stays in Baltimore (long-term deal)
We’re starting off with a rather vanilla, maybe borderline boring prediction here. What could happen if the Baltimore Ravens let Lamar Jackson walk in free agency?
We’ve seen a lot of crazy things in the NFL, but that simply does not happen. Jackson is a 25-year-old quarterback who has already won an MVP award. To think he will hit free agency is bordering on insane.
Do I think Jackson has slightly hurt himself contractually by being self-represented? Absolutely. The whole story about Jackson not wanting a new deal until he determined he was worthy of it is a great testament to his work ethic and belief in self if true, but a player like Jackson should have a massive deal right now with no less than $130-150 million in guaranteed money.
Unfortunately for him, he’s playing out his fifth-year option.
Barring something catastrophic in 2022, I think Jackson will get a fair long-term deal from the Ravens. I think a worst-case scenario for him is the franchise tag in 2023.
Time will tell.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: Tag-and-trade to Houston Texans
The Deebo Samuel saga is going to be a fascinating one to watch in 2022.
The 49ers clearly aren’t motivated to trade him, but that could have been said about almost every team that traded away a big-name wide receiver over the course of the 2022 NFL offseason.
None of these teams want to trade their star receivers, necessarily, but they are getting forced into these situations due to the amount of money the receivers want.
The 49ers may not be willing to pay Deebo Samuel the type of money he’s asking for, but the Houston Texans — armed with cap space and extra draft capital — might.
The Texans have been more aggressive in 2022 than anticipated and if Davis Mills can make strides in 2022, they might be even more aggressive on this kind of front, especially if the going rate is similar to what we saw for Tyreek Hill or Davante Adams.
In Houston, Samuel would join an offense that includes recently re-signed receiver Brandin Cooks as well as 2022 second-round pick John Metchie III.
Samuel would be the new centerpiece of Houston’s rebuild.
The nice thing is, if Houston stinks in 2022, they could use their top pick on a player like CJ Stroud or Bryce Young and deal the other one (from Cleveland) away for a player like Samuel. It wouldn’t be a one-for-one, but the first-rounder could be used as the centerpiece.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: Signs with Miami Dolphins
Could we actually see the crazy Tom Brady, Miami Dolphins thing come to fruition in 2023?
I mean, why not?
Brady could potentially have some stake in the Dolphins. He could continue to make a massive income in the state of Florida with no income taxes.
He could throw to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
He could play the Patriots twice next season.
It would be fascinating to see happen, there’s no question about it. If Brady hits the open market, I’m sure the Dolphins — as well as many other teams — would have interest.
In order to leave the Bucs, Brady would obviously need to be going to a great situation and the Dolphins appear poised to be exactly that.
They are building a very strong defense, they have playmakers on offense, and other guys would undoubtedly want to follow Brady to Miami.
The only real drawback is playing in the AFC again where the competition is as tough as ever.
As if Brady is afraid of a little extra competition.
If Tom Brady is willing to leave the New England Patriots in free agency, why would he not be willing to leave the Buccaneers? Bruce Arians has retired as the team’s head coach.
The Bucs could be in a tight spot next year with the salary cap.
I think this potential pairing makes as much sense as any if Brady leaves Tampa Bay.
2023 NFL Free Agency: DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Prediction: Tag-and-trade to Green Bay Packers
Four years of DK Metcalf in the NFL went pretty quickly.
It feels like just yesterday we experienced Metcalf’s inexplicable drop from a top-10 prospect in the 2019 NFL Draft class to being the last pick of the second round to the Seattle Seahawks.
The Seahawks certainly aren’t going to complain about the value they have gotten out of Metcalf and the value that could still be on the horizon.
The Seahawks opted for a teardown in 2022 with the trade of Russell Wilson. Is that a sign of things to come regarding a potential trade of DK Metcalf?
Maybe.
If the Seahawks are going to blow things up, they aren’t going to let Metcalf walk without some value in return.
He’s one of the top playmakers in the league at his position and should command outstanding value. It seems like the Green Bay Packers would make an interesting destination for Metcalf given the fact that the Packers just traded away Davante Adams in 2022.
A couple of things to consider.
First of all, Metcalf is younger than Adams.
Second, it doesn’t seem like Adams’ departure was really an issue of the Green Bay Packers not wanting to pay him. It seems as though he simply wanted to leave and go play with Derek Carr and the Raiders.
The Packers need to do whatever it takes to maximize Aaron Rodgers’ final years with the team. Adding a star like DK Metcalf could help accomplish that.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns
Prediction: Signs with Seattle Seahawks
Ultimately, Baker Mayfield has got to go somewhere, right?
He’s still one of the top 25 starting quarterbacks in the NFL when healthy, and he’s much better than top 25 when he’s playing at the top of his game.
Unfortunately, things haven’t worked out for the former number one overall pick in Cleveland. He’s helped make this franchise better, but he’s also held them back at times enough that the team decided to go all-in on Deshaun Watson in the 2022 offseason.
Time will tell if that was the right call to make.
One way or another, I don’t hate the idea of Mayfield getting a shot with the Seattle Seahawks as they continue to rebuild and reload.
I don’t know if Seattle will be bad enough this year to land someone like CJ Stroud or Bryce Young, but maybe. They should have a shot at other quarterbacks that end up rising up draft boards over the course of the next 10 months but Mayfield would be a worthwhile dart throw for them regardless.
We’ll see what ends up happening with Mayfield in 2022. If he goes somewhere besides Seattle in a trade, that could obviously change this prediction significantly.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: Signs with Chicago Bears
Here’s another bold prediction for 2023 NFL Free Agency.
What happens if Justin Fields doesn’t develop as expected? What happens if he shows some good things but still has some lows that are too low?
I think the Chicago Bears are an intriguing team to potentially be on next year’s quarterback carousel.
I am hoping I’m wrong about that and Justin Fields goes out and kills it this year, but you never know.
Depending on where the Bears are at, what you typically see with a new head coach and general manager in the NFL is a change at the quarterback position.
Of course, Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus inherited the recently drafted Fields, but they could be a sneaky landing spot for a free agent like Jimmy Garoppolo, a native of Illinois who would be returning to play for his hometown team.
Garoppolo gets a lot of flak but I think when he’s healthy, he is probably one of the top 20 most efficient quarterbacks in the league.
He has helped get his team to the NFC Championship two out of the last three years. If it happened one time, you might be able to convince me it was just a blip on the radar. But the 49ers haven’t just dragged Garoppolo there each time they’ve been there.
He may not be consistent, but he’s had stretches of really good play, for sure.
If Fields falters in year two, the Bears could look to Jimmy G. to stabilize their QB position while continuing to develop Fields, or maybe Garoppolo would come in to push him. Maybe they would move on from Fields completely and draft someone else.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders
Prediction: Signs long-term deal with Commanders
Over the last handful of years, Terry McLaurin has been one of the most underrated players in the entire league.
If you’re a fantasy football player, that’s certainly not the case, but if you were to poll 100 casual NFL fans and ask them to list off 10 of the top wide receivers in the league, you’re probably not going to hear McLaurin’s name called too often.
That could change dramatically in the near future as McLaurin now has an upgrade at quarterback with Carson Wentz coming to town.
He’s also not showing up at OTAs absent a new contract, so we’ll see how that plays out.
My guess?
The Commanders make McLaurin a featured piece of the franchise’s new look. Star receivers like this have certainly been in high demand from other teams and the Commanders could look to trade McLaurin, but that would be foolish of them because they have no proven alternatives at this point.
The franchise did just take Jahan Dotson out of Penn State in round one, which could add some fuel to the McLaurin trade fire, but I think they’re more likely to try to re-sign him than trade him to recoup draft picks, especially after acquiring Carson Wentz.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
Prediction: Signs with Miami Dolphins
It wasn’t long ago that another former high draft choice at the running back position decided to join Tom Brady in Florida.
Just as Leonard Fournette signed on with the Buccaneers a couple of years ago, I can see Saquon Barkley joining Tom Brady — remember, this is all hypothetical — in South Beach.
Think about this offense for the Dolphins…
QB: Tom Brady
RB: Saquon Barkley
WR: Tyreek Hill
WR: Jaylen Waddle
In this scenario, we’ve got tight end Mike Gesicki bolting for another team, but the Dolphins could obviously try to recruit Rob Gronkowski to come and play in South Beach. That feels on-brand for him.
Saquon Barkley may need a change of scenery. We’ll see how well he does in Brian Daboll’s offense but regardless of how well he does, will he be getting franchise tagged in 2023?
I’m not so sure. Anything is possible, but barring some incredible season from Barkley this year, I think he’ll hit free agency and I think teams would be lining up to sign him to see if they could get the best out of him.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: Re-signs with Pittsburgh Steelers
Minkah Fitzpatrick has become a staple for the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense in recent years. He also represents a pretty substantial deviation from the norm for former general manager Kevin Colbert.
For the longest time, the Pittsburgh Steelers primarily focused on building their roster through the NFL Draft and almost strictly through the NFL Draft.
They rarely made big-money free agent signings. They rarely made bold trades for veterans.
Then the Minkah Fitzpatrick trade happened.
It was a pretty shocking trade to begin with because Fitzpatrick was such a young, promising first-round pick at the time.
Since getting traded by the Dolphins, Fitzpatrick has been an absolute machine for the Steelers as a tackler and turnover creator.
He has 13 career interceptions, four forced fumbles, three defensive touchdowns, and 36 total passes broken up.
There’s no doubt that he’s a stud and an integral piece of the Steelers’ defense, which is why I don’t think they’re going to let him get to the open market.
Even if they have to franchise tag him first, I think a long-term deal is on the near horizon for Fitzpatrick.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Elgton Jenkins, OL, Green Bay Packers
Prediction: Signs with Denver Broncos
I’m going out on a bit of a limb with this one because Jenkins has been so critical for the Packers in recent years, but with all of the moves they made and money they spent in 2022, can they really afford to bring Elgton Jenkins back on a long-term deal after this season?
The Denver Broncos just hired Nathaniel Hackett as their new head coach, bringing the former Packers offensive coordinator over along with Justin Outten, an assistant with Green Bay who will now be the Broncos’ OC.
The connections and ties are there, as well as the need for the Broncos. It doesn’t really matter at this point whether you project Jenkins as a guard, center, or right tackle — he could play any of those spots in Denver.
Jenkins is coming off of a torn ACL but he’s proven his worth in the NFL as one of the most versatile players who can step in at a variety of positions in a pinch.
Perhaps his best projection in Denver is at the left guard spot, where he would take over for fellow class of 2023 free agent Dalton Risner.
The Broncos have had longstanding issues with their offensive line but they are obviously hoping the new scheme change to a wide zone will really help.
Jenkins could be a great addition for Denver to play next to left tackle Garett Bolles or potentially even bookend him as the team’s new right tackle.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Orlando Brown Jr., OT, Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: Re-signs with Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs made a big investment in Orlando Brown Jr. last offseason and I highly doubt they did it for just two seasons.
The Chiefs want Brown to be their fixture at left tackle for the foreseeable future, and I think a long-term deal will get done.
Brown got slapped with the franchise tag this offseason and that’s understandable given the nature of the kind of contract he’s going to be signing to become one of the highest-paid offensive linemen in NFL history, in all likelihood.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Derwin James, S, Los Angeles Chargers
Prediction: Franchise tagged by Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers won’t be able to quit Derwin James.
One of the best football players in the NFL, James has simply had a brutal time staying healthy in the NFL.
He missed all but five games from 2019-2020 and bounced back last season by playing in 15 games.
Can he stay healthy in a contract year?
Even if he doesn’t, he’s too good of a player for the Chargers to just let him walk. He’ll get tagged at a bare minimum.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Bradley Chubb, EDGE, Denver Broncos
Prediction: Re-signs with Denver Broncos
The last three seasons have been really tough for Bradley Chubb, the former fifth overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft.
Chubb was outstanding in his rookie season back in 2018, nearly breaking Jevon Kearse’s longstanding rookie sack record (1999).
He then unfortunately tore his ACL early in the 2019 season, and in his bounce-back year in 2020, he got better and better as the year progressed before suffering an ankle injury late in the season.
The ankle injury caused him problems early in the 2021 season and he went on IR yet again.
The Broncos still believe that Chubb can become a superstar off the edge but he needs to stay healthy. If he can do that in 2022, I think he’ll get a long-term deal from the Broncos, who will have a new owner with deep pockets.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Jessie Bates III, S, Cincinnati Bengals
Prediction: Signs with Philadelphia Eagles
The Cincinnati Bengals and Jessie Bates appear headed toward an odd separation.
Just a couple of years ago, it looked like Bates would be a fixture in the Bengals’ defense, but now it looks like these two parties may be far apart on a long-term deal.
That can change at any time, but if Bates leaves in free agency, the Philadelphia Eagles are one team with a need at the safety position that could make a lot of sense.
The Eagles have invested a ton in their secondary lately but a player like Bates could really complete the overall makeover.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Daron Payne, DL, Washington Commanders
Prediction: Signs with Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks are going to have to spend their cap space somewhere.
After clearing Russell Wilson’s contract off the books and, in this case, trading DK Metcalf, the Seahawks would have a boatload of space to work with and could revamp their roster any way they would see fit.
One of the top defensive linemen available next offseason will be Washington’s Daron Payne, a former first-round pick and one of many high picks on that Commanders defensive front.
Payne would join a reloading Seahawks roster but he could be a centerpiece for them defensively and he probably wouldn’t care about the team’s rebuilding status with the massive paycheck he’s going to be receiving.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Prediction: Signs with Houston Texans
Another team that will still be in the midst of a rebuild/reload next offseason is the Houston Texans, but that really depends on how well Davis Mills can do with his full-time starter audition in 2022.
If Mills can prove himself worthy of another season (or better), the Texans could be interesting players on next year’s NFL Free Agency and trade market.
I think a player like Josh Jacobs could actually help them a lot and wouldn’t be surprised to see former Patriots executives Dave Ziegler (Raiders) and Nick Caserio (Texans) come together on a deal involving Jacobs at some point this year.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Hunter Renfrow, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Prediction: Re-signs with Las Vegas Raiders
Over the last few seasons, Hunter Renfrow went from being “that guy who made a big catch in a big game for Clemson” to becoming one of the best slot receivers in the entire NFL.
Renfrow is a true weapon offensively and Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has built an outstanding rapport with him.
Renfrow topped 1,000 yards last season and I think even with the arrival of Davante Adams, the Raiders are going to find a way to prioritize their stud slot receiver in the 2023 offseason.
If they don’t, he’ll get a ton of money from some other team. What Renfrow lacks in flash, he more than makes up for in overall productivity.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: Tag-and-trade to Kansas City Chiefs
After becoming one of Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite targets the last few seasons, what does the future hold for Diontae Johnson with the quarterback changes in Pittsburgh?
There’s no doubt that Johnson is still going to be heavily targeted, but the Steelers have started preparing to move on from Johnson just like they do with about every other receiver they draft.
I’m on the fence about whether they’ll actually let Johnson walk in free agency, but if he does, the Chiefs would make plenty of sense.
Kansas City was willing to go up to a certain point to pay Tyreek Hill but they drew a line in the sand. I think they’d be able to get Johnson for less than $30 million per season, obviously, and I also think he’d be incredible with Patrick Mahomes throwing him passes.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Marcus Davenport, EDGE, New Orleans Saints
Prediction: Signs with Atlanta Falcons
The most likely eventual outcome for Marcus Davenport in 2023 NFL Free Agency could simply be a boring franchise tag.
With that being said, the New Orleans Saints moved around so much money in the 2022 offseason, you can’t help but wonder when that kind of maneuvering is going to catch up to them and they just simply won’t be able to spend.
Davenport had a big 2021 season and with a new contract on the horizon in 2023, he could be a tag-and-trade candidate if he plays well again.
Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot came from the Saints organization and obviously had a hand in trading up to draft Davenport. Perhaps the two could reunite in Atlanta, where pass rush help is desperately needed.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Jack Conklin, OT, Cleveland Browns
Prediction: Signs with Chicago Bears
Everyone is trying to figure out why the Chicago Bears didn’t do much on the offensive line in 2022. Perhaps the class of 2023 is a reason why they didn’t go all-in on guys in the 2022 class.
A player like Jack Conklin could be a massive coup for the Bears at the tackle position, should the Cleveland Browns actually let him go.
I’m not sure if Conklin is a true franchise tag candidate but the Browns are another team that spent so much money in 2022, it’s hard to know what their limitations will be in 2023.
If Conklin is a casualty of their 2022 spending, a team like the Bears would be wise to scoop him up.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Roquan Smith, LB, Chicago Bears
Prediction: Re-signs with Chicago Bears
It’s safe to say the 2022 offseason has not been an overly popular one for the Chicago Bears.
I think fans should be excited about the makeover the secondary has received, but offensively, how is this team going to be supporting Justin Fields?
Properly, that is.
The Bears have a lot of cap space and better NFL Draft resources next offseason to really try and load up the roster, and I think they’d be fools to let Roquan Smith out the door.
The former first-round pick has been exactly as advertised coming out of Georgia — a tackling machine and a weapon for you on all three downs.
The Bears should be bringing him back on a long-term deal.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Mike Gesicki, TE, Miami Dolphins
Prediction: Signs with New York Giants
Another free agent tight end could make some sense for the Giants as well — Dawson Knox is slated for free agency but I would expect the Buffalo Bills to give him the tag.
If Knox doesn’t hit NFL Free Agency in 2023, I think the Giants could go after one of the next best options.
Gesicki is a New Jersey native who played his college ball at Penn State and could return to the upper northeast on a massive free agent contract.
Brian Daboll and the Giants could maximize Gesicki’s outstanding talent and the Dolphins simply have too many guys to pay offensively to keep him around.
Plus, would Rob Gronkowski join Tom Brady in South Beach to truly finish out his playing career? I would think so, at least, in this hypothetical scenario.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Quenton Nelson, OG, Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: Re-signs with Indianapolis Colts
Nothing crazy here. I don’t think Quenton Nelson is really even in danger of being franchise tagged, although you just never know.
Nelson has been one of the best interior offensive linemen in the NFL since he was drafted back in 2018, and the Colts are not going to let him walk out the door.
He’s a cornerstone piece for this team.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Mecole Hardman, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Signs with San Francisco 49ers
If Deebo Samuel is going to be getting a sign-and-trade to make his wish of playing in a new NFL city on a massive contract come true, the 49ers are going to need to replace him.
They still have Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings, but Samuel is the obvious centerpiece of this offense’s passing attack.
All due respect to tight end George Kittle, of course.
The Kansas City Chiefs are also going a different direction at receiver in this scenario, which means that Mecole Hardman could be one of the top available receivers in 2023 NFL Free Agency.
I think at this point, it’s safe to say that things haven’t worked out as well as they could have for Hardman, who came into the NFL with a rather similar size profile and athletic makeup as Tyreek Hill.
Up to this point, Hardman has not proven himself capable of being that same type of receiver, though. Perhaps a relocation to San Francisco could help him get things going in the right direction.