Fantasy football is undoubtedly an inexact science, but there are some things you can just feel coming from a mile away. Every year, there are players getting over-drafted and going into your redraft, you certainly feel comfortable letting others in your league make the mistake of picking them, leaving other (better) players on the board at your picks.
With fantasy football drafts loading up the next couple of weeks, there are players you should be avoiding at their current ADP (average draft position). Don’t say we didn’t warn you.
Let’s take a look at five players around the league who could be absolute busts at their current ADP (via Fantasy Pros composite ADP rankings)
D’Andre Swift is being over-drafted in fantasy football in 2022
Current ADP – RB8, no. 14 overall
I really like D’Andre Swift as a player and I’m high on the Detroit Lions for 2022. As good as I think the Lions are going to be compared to the general consensus, I think D’Andre Swift is getting picked way too early in fantasy football leagues.
The current RB8 and 14th overall player according to Fantasy Pros composite rankings has had two straight seasons with at least three games missed and Swift’s career-best (through two seasons, granted) is 617 rushing yards. He does rack up a lot of targets in the passing game with 135 over his first two seasons, which is probably why he’s going so high.
Even with his heavy usage in the passing game, I think the Lions are going to lean quite a bit on Jamaal Williams in tandem with Swift. Can you expect Swift to play the whole season? I don’t think so. Can you expect him to have a career year in terms of rushing yards, yards from scrimmage, and touchdowns? Maybe.
I’m not saying Swift is going to be bad for the Lions, but I don’t think you should be taking him over players like Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara, CeeDee Lamb, and others.
Amari Cooper is being over-drafted in fantasy football in 2022
If you’re considering drafting Amari Cooper in fantasy football in 2022, buyer beware. The NFL is doing everything in its power to get Deshaun Watson suspended for the entire year. Watson’s presence in the lineup elevates Cooper’s value but with Jacoby Brissett under center?
I would be avoiding drafting Cooper at all.
Especially with his current WR22 standing and ADP of 62, Cooper is going ahead of players at wide receiver like Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Allen Robinson. There’s absolutely zero chance I would be taking Cooper over any of those guys at this point, even as the clear WR1 in Cleveland. I just don’t think that’s going to amount to much this season.
Kareem Hunt is a player to avoid in fantasy football in 2022
Let’s just stick with the Cleveland Browns, since we’re on the topic here. I would avoid Kareem Hunt in 2022, especially absent a trade from the Cleveland Browns. The Browns have a couple of backs on the roster right now that could challenge for touches this season behind Nick Chubb, and the fact that Hunt is demanding a trade really gives me pause about his fit on this roster going forward.
Unless he gets traded to a spot where he’s the clear RB1, there’s no way I’m taking Hunt at his current ADP (RB30, no. 80 overall) over the likes of Devin Singletary, Tony Pollard, and basically every rookie running back option.
Hunt’s displeasure with being in Cleveland isn’t a big deal. He could still go out and have 1,000 yards from scrimmage in tandem with Nick Chubb but that’s only happened once in three seasons with the Browns.
Chris Godwin is going too high in fantasy football after ACL injury
From the looks and sounds of things, Chris Godwin is progressing quite well in his recovery from an ACL injury that feels like it just happened a few weeks ago. Godwin had successful knee surgery in January after a major knee injury, and being that he will be only eight months removed from that injury at the start of the season, why is anyone taking him at his current ADP of 57.8?
Godwin’s average draft position is obviously over a lot of players, players that aren’t coming off of major knee surgery. It’s one thing to be coming off the ACL, it’s another thing to be barely seven months removed from surgery to repair it. If Godwin had torn his ACL in September last year, he might be worthy of this WR21 distinction.
Who knows? At the end of the season, he could look like an absolute steal as WR21 and a player you can get past the top 50 picks. In most leagues, though, you’re investing a starter pick in round five on a guy who may not be completely himself by the time the season gets rolling and the Bucs have contingencies in place.
Tyreek Hill is a risky fantasy football pick without Patrick Mahomes
The Miami Dolphins are going to find ways to get Tyreek Hill involved in the offense, there’s no question about it. After the price they paid to get him in the fold, both in terms of money and draft picks, you can expect them to force-feed him the ball. So why should you avoid him in fantasy football?
At this point, it’s hard to trust that Tua Tagovailoa is going to put Tyreek Hill in a position to be a top 20 overall fantasy football player in 2022. That’s what he’s been in redraft leagues and he’s been WR8 ahead of the likes of Mike Evans and Keenan Allen. Does Hill have the potential to be a top 20 player overall or better? Sure. Does that mean he’ll reach that with Tua throwing passes and another player that will require some manufactured touches like Jaylen Waddle?
I am just not sold on it at this point. I think both Tyreek and Patrick Mahomes could struggle a bit without each other, and with Hill, you’re taking him in the second round expecting him to give you WR1 production.