Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season has finally arrived, so we’ve got one last chance to make predictions about who will win each division, who will make the playoffs, and who is going to be looking forward to the 2023 NFL Draft sooner than later. This is a last-minute gut feeling on each team as we head into the season. Are the Buffalo Bills really going to run away with the AFC East? Will the Kansas City Chiefs continue to reign in the AFC West?
Which NFL teams could end up surprising in the 2022 season either in a good way or a bad way? Which teams could go from worst to first? Which teams will be playoff-bound?
One last time before the 2022 season begins, let’s make some NFL picks for this year’s division winners and how each division will shake out in its entirety. We won’t be predicting win/loss records, just where each team will place within their division.
2022 NFL Picks: Predicting the AFC East
1. Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills are the class of the AFC East and maybe the AFC as a whole. There’s really not a weakness on this roster when you consider how the Bills attacked the pass rush and secondary in the offseason. Josh Allen could very well be the best quarterback in the league, and the Bills have dynamic playmakers at every position. This team looks like the NFL’s most well-oiled machine going into 2022.
2. Miami Dolphins
Last year, it was the New England Patriots in this slot and making the playoffs. The Miami Dolphins have been knocking on the doorstep over the last two seasons, but they’ve lost one too many games in each of those seasons to make it to the postseason. They are obviously banking on the addition of Tyreek Hill along with the hiring of new head coach Mike McDaniel being the difference in this team getting over the top. The Dolphins have a playoff-ready defense, but will the offense be consistent enough to get there?
3. New England Patriots
If I had the guts, I would put the New York Jets here. I am just not sure about Zach Wilson yet. The Patriots made the playoffs last year and they had one of the most boring offseasons of any team in the NFL. They lost offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and essentially didn’t replace him. I don’t know how that’s going to work out for a young quarterback in his formative years. I don’t think the Patriots have enough weapons offensively but Bill Belichick will have this defense playing tough.
4. New York Jets
I think we’ll see Robert Saleh’s team take a huge leap forward this year, even if it’s not reflected in the win/loss column. Of course, that’s the only thing that really matters, but the Jets have a much-improved roster from years past and Zach Wilson is just hurt to start the year, affecting their projection over the course of the season. I think they’ll be fun to watch weekly, even if Joe Flacco is playing QB.
NFC East NFL Picks for the 2022 Season
1. Dallas Cowboys
For once, I don’t think the Dallas Cowboys are overhyped going into an NFL season. The Cowboys have a few very crucial pieces returning for the 2022 season. They obviously have Dak Prescott under center, giving them one of the top quarterbacks in the game leading the offense. They’ve got unexpected continuity on their coaching staff with the return of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.
Unlike going into the 2021 season, the Cowboys also now have an established defensive superstar in Micah Parsons, who was just a promising unknown at this time a year ago. I think the Cowboys, if Prescott is healthy, are a legit contender in the NFC.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have one of the best rosters in the NFL going into the 2022 season. There’s just a bit of an unknown or projection when it comes to Jalen Hurts. He made strong strides last season and as a result, the Eagles’ reload or rebuild looked a year ahead of schedule. I love the additions they made this year and I think they are going to be right there with the Cowboys atop the NFC East in 2022.
3. Washington Commanders
The acquisition of Carson Wentz, the re-signing of wide receiver Terry McLaurin, and the drafting of Jahan Dotson are all strong moves for the Commanders in 2022. This team has a sneaky good offensive line. The big question mark here is Chase Young. When he comes back, is he going to be at full strength, or are we looking more at 2023 for that one?
4. New York Giants
I love the new infrastructure and brain trust in New York with general manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll. I think those are two home run hires but right now, this is a team without a solution at quarterback. To me, Daniel Jones is not the guy. I think at this point, he’s effectively proven that as one of the most turnover-prone quarterbacks in the game.
AFC South NFL Picks for the 2022 season
1. Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts are the definition of balanced, almost to the point of boring. Indianapolis is going to play good defense in 2022 once again, although we’ll see how the loss of Matt Eberflus affects that unit. They have one of the best offensive playmakers in the game in running back Jonathan Taylor. Can Matt Ryan get this team back over the hump? Frankly, the AFC South might be the worst division in football but the Colts look like the best team.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Depending on how things go in the AFC South this year, is it possible that nine wins could win this division? If so, the Jaguars could be one of the candidates out of the AFC to go from worst to first. I think we’ll see huge improvements from Trevor Lawrence under Doug Pederson. I think we’re going to see improvement from this team defensively with the combination of Travon Walker and Josh Allen coming off the edge. This should be a much smoother operation in 2022.
3. Tennessee Titans
The Titans were the top seed in the AFC last year and what has really changed for them? Well, they traded away their best receiver with AJ Brown heading to Philadelphia, replacing him with Treylon Burks. Is the loss of AJ Brown really going to take this team from the no. 1 seed to out of the playoffs? Probably not, I just feel like the Titans have been overachieving the last handful of seasons. We’ll see in a few months if I’m dead wrong about that one.
4. Houston Texans
The Houston Texans look like they could be one of the more interesting rebuilding teams in 2022. Last year, I thought the road ahead was about to be miserable for this team, but things are really looking up after the surprising development of Davis Mills. The Texans now have an interesting young quarterback, a potential phenom rookie running back, and some actual building blocks defensively. Another huge win? They got rid of Deshaun Watson.
NFC South NFL Picks for the 2022 Season
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady is still Tom Brady, no matter if he’s got to retire for a little bit or take some personal time during training camp. The Bucs are going to be a force once again in the NFL in 2022. Bruce Arians is not the team’s head coach anymore but as long as Brady is around, the offense will be humming. Todd Bowles will coach another loaded defense and the Bucs will be favorites for many people to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
2. Carolina Panthers
I’m drinking the juice, I’m buying the stock — however you want to say it, I’m buying this Carolina Panthers team. The Panthers made the big trade for Baker Mayfield and with that move, I think the franchise’s fortunes could turn around completely. Maybe I’m jaded with Mayfield, but I think when he’s healthy he can be an impact player, even if he’s a little erratic. I love the supporting cast and pieces the Panthers have at the skill spots as well.
3. New Orleans Saints
Can the New Orleans Saints survive in the post-Sean Payton era? Last year it was the loss of Drew Brees. This year, it’s Payton. I’m just not sure. The health of Michael Thomas, at least to start the season, is still a question mark. Jameis Winston is coming off the ACL. The Saints just traded Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. I’m selling Saints stock leading up to the start of this season.
4. Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons should be one of the worst teams in the NFL in 2022 but with a shot at some upside. We’ll see what happens with the reclamation project that is former first-round pick Marcus Mariota. Defensively, the Falcons have one of the game’s best corners in AJ Terrell but they have a lot of work to do in rebuilding that side of the ball. I just think the Falcons are still a work in progress with a couple of fun pieces on either side of the ball, and even before the season starts there’s one eye on the 2023 NFL Draft.
AFC North NFL Picks for the 2022 Season
1. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens lost a lot of really close games last year. So many, in fact, that a handful of games going a coin flip the other way and Baltimore may have had one of the best records in the entire AFC, and that was with one injury after another. I think we’ll see a scorched earth kind of season from Lamar Jackson, and the Ravens returning to prominence as one of the best teams in the AFC.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals got really hot at exactly the right time last year. Keep in mind, though, that the way they finished the season completely changed the optics of the state of this franchise. They had the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and made it all the way to the Super Bowl. I think it’s asking a lot of them to assume they’re going to be right back in the mix again in 2022. I think the Bengals take a step back in terms of their finish this season but the players all take steps forward as the organization continues to grow into a perennial contender.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers certainly have plenty of talent at the offensive skill positions. If Mitchell Trubisky can’t succeed in this kind of environment, the Steelers have first-round pick Kenny Pickett to turn to. This team could surprise a lot of people in 2022 if they can get strong play from Trubisky or Pickett (or both).
4. Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns have a solid roster but they will be without their $230 million quarterback for 11 games this season. With all due respect to Jacoby Brissett and the rest of this Browns roster, how can you think this team is going to be anything but last place in the AFC North? Even if Watson wasn’t suspended, I’d be skeptical of how things would go for this team. The entire AFC North could have eight wins or better in 2022 if Brissett proves to be a worthy placeholder.
NFC North NFL Picks for the 2022 Season
1. Green Bay Packers
As much grief as I (and many others) give the Green Bay Packers for the Davante Adams trade and the way they built their wide receiver position this offseason, you’ve got to hand it to general manager Brian Gutekunst. He navigated a really crazy situation with Aaron Rodgers masterfully, and he’s also built an incredibly strong defense over the last handful of years. In fact, the Packers’ defense is the reason I’m all but certain they’ll once again win the NFC North. Okay, having the back-to-back MVP at QB also helps.
2. Detroit Lions
Here’s one of the biggest surprises on this list. I thought about going chalk or conservative and swapping the Lions and the Vikings, but I like Detroit a little too much. I don’t think the Lions are going to contend with the Packers, but in the battle for second place in the NFC North, the Lions come away victorious. The talent is there in the trenches on both sides of the ball and the Lions have tons of playmakers offensively to spread the ball to.
3. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings should be a nine-win team at worst in 2022, but can they get there? What this team “should” be over the last five years based on its talent alone has never matched up to reality. The Vikings are constant underachievers, it seems. Will Kirk Cousins help them take that next step with a new GM and coaching staff in place?
4. Chicago Bears
The Bears have a defense that is bordering on playoff-ready and an offense that is in total rebuild mode. This team is so interesting going into the 2022 season but I’m a lot less cold on them as I was earlier in the offseason. Justin Fields showed some promise in the preseason. If he can take a big step forward in 2022, the Bears should at least be back on the right track.
AFC West NFL Picks for the 2022 Season
1. Kansas City Chiefs
I’m not bold enough to kick the Kansas City Chiefs out of this spot. I think they’ve earned the right to be almost a default in this position until proven otherwise. The loss of Tyreek Hill is massive in my opinion and I think too many people are downplaying it for how this offense has run the last few years, but Patrick Mahomes is still the trigger-man at QB. Because of that, I think the Chiefs will more than likely be just fine. He will find a way to make plays.
2. Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos have as good of a chance as any team in the NFL to go from worst to first. The addition of Russell Wilson has given this team the hope it needs to return to championship contention. For the last couple of years, analysts and pundits have been talking about the Broncos as being a “QB away” from said contention. Now they have one of the best to ever do it.
3. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are the definition of top-heavy. This is a team that constantly has huge expectations from the outside and they almost always fail to meet those expectations. I still think they’ll be a playoff team in 2022, but this team has to find a way to close out games and stay a bit more consistent throughout the season. A team as talented as people say the Chargers are shouldn’t run so hot and cold.
4. Las Vegas Raiders
Being fourth place in the AFC West may end up still being a first-place quality team in other divisions around the NFL. The AFC West might be campaigning for a playoff seeding format that involves the seven best records in the conference instead of requiring teams from all divisions to get in regardless if they even have a winning record or not. The Raiders are going to be good in 2022.
My biggest question marks with this team are on the offensive line and in the secondary. I think they’re going to struggle in those areas a bit much to hold up over the course of the regular season in terms of winning the AFC West.
NFC West NFL Picks for the 2022 Season
1. San Francisco 49ers
It’s easy to forget that the 49ers were in the NFL’s final four last year. As a matter of fact, they’ve been there two of the last three years, and the roster just keeps getting better. Trey Lance is certainly a wild card, but I think there could be a slight Super Bowl hangover for the Rams and the 49ers are too talented not to be at the top of this division.
2. Los Angeles Rams
Like I said, a little Super Bowl hangover here. The Rams are still a very good team and I think they’ll be a well-oiled machine offensively, but who is bringing pressure off the edge? Aaron Donald can do a lot of the heavy lifting, but he can’t do it all. The loss of Von Miller looms large for this team in 2022. The reality is this roster just isn’t as good as the one that won a Super Bowl. That’s a tough ask of any Super Bowl winner any year. I still think the Rams will be a playoff team in 2022.
3. Arizona Cardinals
To me, the Arizona Cardinals might be one of the biggest pretenders in the NFC. They got off to a hot start last year and couldn’t put anything together down the stretch. It wouldn’t shock me to see them as a slightly surprising playoff omission in 2022 with DeAndre Hopkins’ suspension proving costly over the long haul as well as just an underwhelming pass rush unit.
4. Seattle Seahawks
The trade of Russell Wilson has put the Seattle Seahawks firmly in rebuilding mode. Geno Smith is the opening day starter and while Seattle is talented enough offensively to win a handful of games this season, I think there’s just way too much work to be done on this roster to get anything over six or seven wins, and that may be generous.
NFL Picks 2022: AFC Playoff Teams (in no particular order)
Kansas City Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens
Indianapolis Colts
Buffalo Bills
Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals
Los Angeles Chargers
The Ravens, Broncos, Chargers, and Colts didn’t make the playoffs last year. They would be replacing the Steelers, Raiders, Titans, and Patriots which I don’t think is unreasonable. Although there is a chance all of those teams could be back in yet again in 2022, the loaded AFC could see some massive turnover in terms of its playoff teams.
NFL Picks 2022: NFC Playoff Teams (in no particular order)
San Francisco 49ers
Green Bay Packers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys
Los Angeles Rams
Philadelphia Eagles
Detroit Lions
I’m putting my money where my mouth is here. I’ve got the Detroit Lions as a surprise playoff team coming out of the NFC this year, and I think there are a lot more chances for surprise spots in that conference than there are in the overcrowded and overloaded AFC. That could lead to Dan Campbell winning the NFL’s coach of the year award.