Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season was yet another wild and crazy week of NFL action. As promised, there were exciting games from start to finish, and some of the best matchups of the week delivered in terms of the late-game theatrics. But how did our Week 4 NFL picks hold up? As you might expect, it was up and down across the board with a 9-7 record on NFL picks last week.
Despite having a coin flip’s chance of being right on many NFL picks, you’ve got to try and anticipate the surprises and take some risks. Otherwise, where’s the fun? At any rate, we’re pressing onward to NFL Week 5. Let’s take a look through every game on the slate for this week, give a little recap of where teams are at and preview where they could be headed, and make some NFL picks.
As always, if you intend on making any bets based on these game previews, these are just my opinions based on what we’ve seen so far this season. Bet at your own risk, and have some fun!
Week 5 byes: None
2022 NFL picks and predictions for Week 5
Indianapolis Colts (1-2-1) at Denver Broncos (2-2)
Thursday, October 6, 8:15 PM ET
The Denver Broncos have not been living up to the lofty expectations fans had for them going into the 2022 NFL season. Despite the best performance we’ve seen from Russell Wilson yet in orange and blue, the Broncos lost on the road to the Las Vegas Raiders and now have a brutally short turnaround against the Colts. What was most concerning for Denver against the Raiders was the rate at which this team gave up yardage in the running game.
Josh Jacobs had a career-high in rushing yards (144) as the Raiders gashed the Broncos for four quarters on the ground. The Broncos can’t have that kind of defensive play against the Colts, who could feast with Jonathan Taylor, even if he isn’t 100 percent.
Taylor’s status for this game is in question, so a lot of pressure will be placed on Matt Ryan’s shoulders regardless. The Broncos have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL and the Colts shouldn’t expect much out of Michael Pittman Jr. — or anyone else, for that matter — when matched up against Pat Surtain II. Surtain is playing out of his mind early on this season.
Luckily for the Colts, the Broncos are somewhat of a mess offensively and will be without their starting running back as well Javonte Williams suffered an apparently serious knee injury against the Raiders and could miss significant time. Perhaps the biggest factor in this game will come down to which team’s quarterback can take over, and which team can limit turnovers.
Prediction: Broncos win 24-17
New York Giants (3-1) at Green Bay Packers (3-1)
Sunday, October 9, 9:30 AM ET
There are some things just completely out of Aaron Rodgers’ control, and yet the Green Bay Packers are sitting in pretty darn good shape at 3-1 through the first four weeks of the 2022 NFL season. Case in point, Rodgers threw an absolute dime to Romeo Doubs in this game for an apparent touchdown. Everyone for the Packers was celebrating on the field, but Doubs couldn’t control the ball as he hit the ground and it was determined he didn’t make a football move or prove possession long enough.
One of the best throws of the year for Rodgers will go down in the stat books as an incomplete pass.
That’s the kind of season it has been for Green Bay in the passing game, which is reflected in my (and many of yours) fantasy lineups. While the Packers work through things offensively, they have one of the best defenses in the league and a matchup against the New York Giants, whose QB situation is currently a huge question mark.
You’ve got to credit head coach Brian Daboll for the job he’s done early on with this Giants team, getting them to three wins and so far, keeping pace with the rest of the NFC East which has the undefeated Eagles and the shockingly 3-1 Cowboys.
Despite the Giants’ success thus far, does anyone really see them going into Green Bay and getting a win? It would be the biggest upset of the week, in my opinion, despite the fact that these two teams have identical records.
Prediction: Packers win 31-21
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3) at Buffalo Bills (3-1)
Sunday, October 9, 1:00 PM ET
Kenny Pickett took over as the Steelers’ quarterback against the New York Jets, but it couldn’t spark the team to victory even as the Jets were seeing the 2022 debut of Zach Wilson.
Pickett should be the Steelers’ starting quarterback from here on out after some dismal performances early on by Mitchell Trubisky. The Steelers’ offense at least started moving the ball well with Pickett in the lineup, and he might have had a stellar debut if not for his receivers letting him down. And by letting him down I mean letting the ball hit their hands and float into the waiting arms of Jets defenders.
The Steelers gave their Week 4 matchup away to the New York Jets, and now they’ve got an even bigger AFC East foe to deal with. The Buffalo Bills look like one of the NFL’s juggernauts through four weeks. Yes, they have lost a game. Yes, they were in a tight one with the Ravens this past week. With all of that being said, Josh Allen looks incredible this year (once again) and this is a good matchup for Buffalo at home.
Without TJ Watt affecting the game, I don’t know if the Steelers can do enough to keep Buffalo at bay. This team just has way too many ways it can beat you in the passing game. If the Steelers can somehow force some turnovers and get Josh Allen frazzled, they might have a shot in this one. You never know what kind of offensive explosiveness you might get out of Kenny Pickett if he has a full week to prepare as the starter.
Still, the safe bet in this one is Buffalo at home.
Prediction: Bills win 34-20
Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-2)
Sunday, October 9, 1:00 PM ET
Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season seems to be all about teams with similar records going on completely different trajectories. The Los Angeles Chargers and Cleveland Browns both have pretty talented rosters at the top end but struggle with depth in certain areas. Injuries and/or suspensions have caused these teams to be testing their depth early on in 2022.
The Chargers have Justin Herbert under center, which gives them a clear advantage going into this game or pretty much any other. Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks in the game, and because of his presence, the Chargers are capable of going off for 30-40 points on any given week. Unfortunately, injuries have caused this team to also be a bit enigmatic and we’ve seen instances of that multiple times already in 2022.
The Browns, on the other hand, are very straightforward as of right now. They have gotten stretches of decent play from Jacoby Brissett in the first four weeks of the season, but this team goes as the running game and defense go. Unfortunately, a car accident caused Myles Garrett to miss this past game, and thankfully that was the extent of his injuries up to this point. His situation is in wait-and-see mode at this point and that makes predicting this game a little bit easier.
A fully healthy Myles Garrett and strong running game combined with the home atmosphere in Cleveland would all work together to give the Browns a decent edge, but with Garrett’s status in question and Jacoby Brissett anything but a sure thing to out-duel Justin Herbert, the smart bet here is probably Los Angeles.
Prediction: Chargers win 27-20
Chicago Bears (2-2) at Minnesota Vikings (3-1)
Sunday, October 9, 1:00 PM ET
At this point, it feels like the Chicago Bears are riding a bike, and one by one, screws are coming loose and the wheels are about to fall off. Although Chicago is 2-2 right now, there are major concerns about this Bears team heading into Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season. With the Packers at 3-1 and the Vikings at 3-1, the Bears are obviously not thinking about tanking right now, but this season has got to be all about getting a clean evaluation on Justin Fields.
At this point, can you really say we’ve gotten one? There are 13 games left for the Bears to sort of figure things out as far as Fields and his future with the team are concerned. They aren’t really cutting him loose in the passing game and somewhat understandably so. We saw him complete just 11 of his 22 passes against the New York Giants on Sunday.
The Minnesota Vikings might be a bit of a fraudulent 3-1 team right now, but they are 3-1 nonetheless. The way the Bears have been trending early on this season, it wouldn’t surprise me if this was one of the bigger blowouts of the week.
The Vikings may not be a model of consistency on offense or defense early on this season, but they are capable of going off for huge offensive output at any point in time. Justin Jefferson may be ascending to “best WR in the NFL” status this year and there’s just too much firepower for the Bears to keep up unless they can rattle Kirk Cousins early.
Prediction: Vikings win 30-13
Detroit Lions (1-3) at New England Patriots (1-3)
Sunday, October 9, 1:00 PM ET
It feels weird to say this, but I will say it anyway — it’s a bit surprising that both of these teams are 1-3 heading into Week 5 action. The New England Patriots were a playoff team a year ago, but that felt like more of a mirage than something that was bound to continue year after year given how much the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and even New York Jets have improved in the AFC East. With that being said, 1-3 to start the year? A Bill Belichick-coached team?
Not exactly unprecedented, but the Patriots are declining quicker than I anticipated. Now, they may be heading into this particular home game with Bailey Zappe at the quarterback position with Mac Jones nursing an ankle injury and Brian Hoyer being taken out of the game on Sunday due to concussion protocol. Despite the fact that both Hoyer and Zappe had to play against the Packers, the Patriots took Aaron Rodgers and company to overtime with strong defensive play and a balanced running game.
Detroit is a high-octane offense but they will give up points defensively as well. It feels weird to call Detroit the former, but they are exactly that. They are one of the NFL’s best offenses through four weeks, and it doesn’t even matter what their personnel is out there. They scored over 40 points against Seattle without D’Andre Swift or Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Jared Goff is actually kind of killing it right now with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions in the first four games of the year. If he has his weapons back against New England, can the Lions go into Foxboro and get a win? The Patriots can’t let this game get to a shootout, because they’ll lose in that case.
Prediction: Lions win 31-17
Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)
Sunday, October 9, 1:00 PM ET
Perhaps the idea that the Seahawks were just going to tank for a great pick in the 2023 NFL Draft were a bit premature. The Seahawks are 2-2 after a game against the Detroit Lions this past weekend in which almost 100 total points were scored. The Seahawks offense has shown signs of progression this year even without Russell Wilson, and Seattle fans have been acting like they finally got a bothersome wart off the heel of their foot.
We’ll see how kind the next 13 games are to Geno Smith and the Seahawks, but right now, he’s playing some good football and the Seahawks are more than just competitive. There are times when this team looks flat-out good. They have a chance this weekend against the New Orleans Saints to start making some significant noise in the NFC West with another win.
The Saints are an interesting team, coming off of the already infamous double doink against the Minnesota Vikings in London. If the Saints are fully healthy, I think Andy Dalton is good enough to push this team to a victory, especially playing at home.
Even if they’re not fully healthy, we saw them compete toe-to-toe with the Vikings this past weekend. Perhaps with a full week to prepare, Dalton and the Saints can get back on track with a much-needed home victory.
Prediction: Saints win 23-20
Miami Dolphins (3-1) at New York Jets (2-2)
Sunday, October 9, 1:00 PM ET
The more I dwell on this game, the more I can’t help but wonder if this is shaping up to be the upset of the week in the NFL. The Miami Dolphins were looking like they could potentially be the best team in the league after a handful of weeks and a win against the Buffalo Bills. Against the Cincinnati Bengals last Thursday night, though, the Dolphins came under fire from everyone who follows the NFL, even a little bit.
Seeing Tua Tagovailoa on the ground against the Bengals was one of the scariest things you can witness as a football fan, and it came just four days after Tua apparently had a concussion against the Bills. The Dolphins maintain he did not have a concussion in that game, but we all saw what we saw. Against the Jets, I don’t expect to see Tagovailoa playing, but Teddy Bridgewater is one of the best backup options in the NFL right now.
He can lead the Dolphins to a win on the road, but don’t you kind of like the New York Jets with what we saw from Zach Wilson in his debut? Maybe I’m romanticizing his return to the field a little bit, but I don’t hate the Jets in this matchup.
Robert Saleh is going to have his guys playing hard, no question. The Jets have a strong secondary and I think rookie Sauce Gardner is going to relish a matchup against Tyreek Hill.
Ah, what the heck…You’ve got to make bold predictions somewhere, right? Everyone’s going to be picking the Dolphins to win this game. I’ll be the guy that picks the Jets.
Prediction: Jets win 24-23
Atlanta Falcons (2-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2)
Sunday, October 9, 1:00 PM ET
This game is yet another example of I have absolutely know idea what to make of these two teams through four games.
On the one hand with the Atlanta Falcons, I have been lowkey buying into this team since they gave the Saints a legitimate scare in Week 1. I picked them to beat the Browns last week, which they did, and although that wasn’t a shocking outcome I think the fact that one of the favorites to pick first overall in 2023 is 2-2 speaks volumes at this point. The injury to Cordarrelle Patterson hurts, but the Falcons will lean on Tyler Allgeier and he will keep doing what he does out there. He averaged 8.4 yards per carry against the Browns last week.
On the other hand, you have the Buccaneers, a preseason pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this year with Tom Brady coming back for his 100th NFL season. After four weeks, the Bucs have limped to 2-2. They have very little balance offensively. The defense has proven to be a sieve at times. What gives? Are we meant to buy into this team or not?
I don’t know how I can pick against the Buccaneers at home in this game, but it just doesn’t feel like this team is worthy of that kind of treatment at this point, either. The Falcons have a top 10 scoring offense and are one of the top 10 teams this season in terms of forcing turnovers.
Am I really going to pick another massive upset here?
Prediction: Falcons win 28-24
Tennessee Titans (2-2) at Washington Commanders (1-3)
Sunday, October 9, 1:00 PM ET
The Tennessee Titans have now rattled off two wins in a row heading into their Week 5 matchup against the Washington Commanders, a team right now that is absolutely bleeding.
But first, the Titans.
What even is this team? They are a close Week 1 loss against the Giants away from being 3-1 and there’s really no great explanation as to why. Mike Vrabel and his staff deserve a ton of credit. They put their players in a position to succeed and Vrabel obviously knows how to manage a game well. He’s a really good coach, and after this weekend, I wouldn’t be shocked to see his team at 3-2.
The Commanders are just not a team you’re fishing for reasons to pick at this point. They can’t get Terry McLaurin properly involved in the offense. They aren’t playing well defensively, giving up 27 points per game. Not only are they giving up a ton of points defensively, but they’re also not creating takeaways.
Ultimately, this game could just simply come down to which team makes more mistakes, and how are you betting on anyone other than the Titans if that ends up being the case? The Titans deserve some respect as the reigning no. 1 seed in the AFC, and although I may be down on them as far as their future projection goes, I think they can win this game.
Prediction: Titans win 27-24
Houston Texans (0-3-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2)
Sunday, October 9, 1:00 PM ET
The entire NFL world seemingly jumped on the Jacksonville Jaguars bandwagon last week and then they had a date against the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. The Jaguars showed some fight against Philadelphia but ultimately fell short. They couldn’t overcome turning the ball over five times against the Eagles, and what team could? Especially on the road.
The Jaguars aren’t exactly known for having the greatest home-field advantage in the league unless you really love sitting in that hot tub, but they have a chance to bounce back on their home field against a divisional opponent that is struggling here in Week 5.
The Houston Texans are the NFL’s last remaining winless team through four weeks and I know at some point, they’re going to figure things out and win a couple of games at the very least. Dameon Pierce has been as-advertised so far this season and looks like an absolute star. Brandin Cooks is a big-time weapon when healthy.
The question mark for Houston right now is whether Davis Mills can start eliminating mistakes and keep his team in a position to win games late. Unfortunately, we’ve seen him buckling under pressure in recent weeks with really untimely interceptions and fumbles. So far this season, Mills has four fumbles and four interceptions. All four of those interceptions have come in the last two weeks.
I think the Jaguars are going to show some fortitude and resilience coming off of a tough loss against a really good team.
Prediction: Jaguars win 28-20
San Francisco 49ers (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)
Sunday, October 9, 4:05 PM ET
The Carolina Panthers are just really hard to watch. Maybe it’s because I have DJ Moore in my dynasty league, or maybe it’s because I saw something great in Baker Mayfield coming out of Oklahoma. Whatever the case, I would almost rather watch my Iowa Hawkeyes on a weekly basis than watch this Panthers team try and move the ball.
It’s a painful experience.
Carolina is lucky to have Christian McCaffrey mostly healthy this season because he’s been the only fun part of this team offensively to watch. Other than that, it looks like this team is headed for wholesale changes yet again in the 2023 offseason with a new head coach and quarterback. Starting from scratch yet again.
The 49ers are hoping for a much different trajectory, even after losing starting QB Trey Lance with a season-ending injury. Jimmy Garoppolo’s 2022 debut as the starter against Denver was an absolute disaster, and the Broncos made Garoppolo look absolutely silly on Sunday Night Football. But he has a chance to bounce back and you have come to expect that from Kyle Shanahan’s teams no matter where he’s been.
This 49ers team is simply too talented for the Panthers, even with Carolina playing at home.
Prediction: 49ers win 33-16
Dallas Cowboys (3-1) at Los Angeles Rams (2-2)
Sunday, October 9, 3:25 PM ET
You’ve got to tip your cap to the Dallas Cowboys at this point, Specifically, to Cooper Rush and the Dallas coaching staff. Regardless of the opinions of fans or outsiders, the Cowboys have stuck with Rush through the Dak Prescott injury, and nobody could have seen 3-0 with Prescott on the mend coming, not even the greatest of optimists. It was simply out of the question three weeks ago.
But that’s why you play the games, right?
The Cowboys haven’t just lucked into three wins, either. They’ve been playing some really good football. Thankfully, this is fuel for my “the Cowboys are better in 2022 than they were in 2021” narrative and I think they have proven that they can be formidable throughout January. Dallas has a legit defense. They have playmakers offensively. By the way, Michael Gallup looked great coming off of injury, didn’t he?
Especially if Dak Prescott is able to play against the Rams, I’m not certain that this Cowboys team shouldn’t be favored in this game.
Perhaps I’m just too low on the Los Angeles Rams. They are the reigning Super Bowl champions, but I just don’t see as good of a roster out there for Sean McVay and company this year. Still, the Rams have Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Cooper Kupp, and Matthew Stafford. They have the guns to win any kind of shootout.
This will be the NFL’s game of the week, no doubt. Everybody wants to see what the Cowboys do on a weekly basis — love them or hate them — and everybody is interested to see how the Rams are going to do in the aftermath of winning the Super Bowl with so many stars on the roster. I’m taking the Cowboys to win this one.
Prediction: Cowboys win 24-23
Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2)
Sunday, October 9, 4:25 PM ET
The Philadelphia Eagles are the NFL’s lone unbeaten team through four weeks of play. It’s not altogether surprising considering the Eagles have built a very strong roster from top to bottom on both sides of the ball, and it appears that Jalen Hurts is continually taking steps forward as an all-around quarterback. Going up against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 4, the Eagles caused five turnovers defensively and took advantage.
Can you rely on that kind of production defensively every single game? No, but then again, the Eagles had nine sacks the week before, so what kind of crazy outlier should we expect from that unit against the Arizona Cardinals?
At times, the Cardinals look like a force offensively and Kyler Murray seems to be locked in. Other times, you can tell he’s really forcing the issue and trying to do too much, maybe even out of necessity.
This matchup obviously features two of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league, but even with the Cardinals playing at home, the Eagles are simply playing too well right now. They are much more talented than Arizona on paper and there’s no way I’m taking Arizona in this game, even though they could absolutely put forth the type of offensive performance required to win it.
Over the course of four quarters, I just think Philadelphia is going to wear an inferior Arizona roster down, sending them to 2-3 on the season and staying unbeaten at 5-0.
Prediction: Eagles win 30-20
Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (2-2)
Sunday, October 9, 8:20 PM ET
Although one of these two teams will leave Sunday night with a record of 2-3, this is one of the best games on the NFL Week 5 slate. For both the Bengals and the Ravens, having two losses already this season is nothing short of brutal.
If the Ravens were to lose, it would be their sixth-straight loss at home dating back to last season. For a team that has been dominant at home through the John Harbaugh era (and beyond, frankly), that would be unprecedented. It would also represent the Ravens’ third loss within the AFC, something that could be detrimental at the end of the season.
If the Bengals lose here, it would only be their second loss in the AFC, but it would also be their second loss within the AFC North. Not only that, but it would give the Baltimore Ravens a huge edge to have an early two-game lead in the division with a tie-breaker already in place.
The Bengals have scored 27 points in consecutive games and the offense seems to be clicking now after a sluggish start. Beating the Dolphins last Thursday night was huge for Cincinnati but their excitement over a two-game winning streak could be short-lived.
The Ravens played the Buffalo Bills extremely tough and despite some questionable decisions in their Week 4 loss, it’s hard to bet against the Ravens playing at home, regardless of the streak they are currently on.
Prediction: Ravens win 27-24
Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-1)
Monday, October 10, 7:15 PM ET
The Las Vegas Raiders finally got their first win of the 2022 NFL season against the Denver Broncos in Week 4. Playing in front of the home crowd, the Raiders got their usual outstanding performance from Josh Jacobs, who seemingly becomes the second coming of prime Adrian Peterson anytime the Raiders face off against the Broncos.
The Raiders found some success force-feeding Davante Adams in Week 4 but most importantly, found some much-needed balance in their offensive attack. Things started clicking for them in the running game at just the right time because it will require a similar offensive effort for the Raiders to beat the Chiefs in Week 5. Kansas City looked like an absolute juggernaut on the road against the Buccaneers this past week after losing to the Colts in Week 3.
Obviously, everyone could see that Kansas City was on its way to some kind of slip-up when they played the Colts after flirting with disaster in the first two weeks of the season. With that being said, they played a rather dominant performance against one of the top contenders in the NFC and Patrick Mahomes was once again a wizard out there, making plays out of nothing. Under the prime-time lights, playing at home, how can you possibly bet against the Chiefs with the way they looked against Tampa Bay?
This could end up being an ugly blowout win for Kansas City since the Raiders were in desperation mode against the Broncos this past week. This is one of my easier NFL picks of the week.
Prediction: Chiefs win 34-20