Another week of NFL picks and predictions, another week of unpredictability. What a wild week it was in Week 10 action of the 2022 NFL season, right? The Minnesota Vikings have continued to defy the odds, going on the road and getting a win against the Buffalo Bills.
The Green Bay Packers had a stunning comeback against the Dallas Cowboys, one of the best defenses in the league. The Colt McCoy-led Arizona Cardinals got a victory. The Las Vegas Raiders fell to Jeff Saturday in his professional head coaching debut.
It was just an all-around stunning weekend and my picks reflected that. It was easily my worst week of NFL picks and predictions all season with a record of 4-9 going into Monday night’s game between the Eagles and Commanders.
Teams on Week 11 bye: Seahawks, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Jaguars
2022 NFL picks and predictions for Week 11
Tennessee Titans (6-3) at Green Bay Packers (4-6)
Thursday, November 17, 8:15 PM ET
What a stunning victory on Sunday afternoon for the Packers as they made a comeback against one of the top overall defensive units in the entire league. Aaron Rodgers found a way to get the Packers’ passing game going despite attempting just 20 passes and completing only 14 of them. Among his 14 completed passes against the Cowboys on Sunday were three touchdowns to rookie receiver Christian Watson.
It was a desperately needed breakout performance from Watson and a desperately needed win at home for the Packers, who get to stay home this week against the rugged 6-3 Tennessee Titans.
The Titans may not win pretty, and they may not make a lot of highlight reels, but they are tough as nails under Mike Vrabel and they showed some resilience this weekend against the Denver Broncos. Facing a 10-0 deficit, the Titans scored 17 unanswered points and shut the Broncos down in the second half, notching their sixth win of the season.
As these two teams collide, you tend to buy in a little more to Aaron Rodgers keeping things going at home, even against a tougher defense. I think I’m taking the Packers on a short week here.
Prediction: Packers win 24-18
Chicago Bears (3-7) at Atlanta Falcons (4-6)
Sunday, November 20, 1:00 PM ET
If you ordered a matchup between two of the best running quarterbacks in the NFL, this would certainly be among the top 3-5 options here in 2022. Justin Fields and Marcus Mariota have been outstanding running the ball this season and over the last month, it’s possible that nobody in the entire league has been as dynamic individually as Justin Fields when it comes to running from the QB position.
Fields has shown incredible running instincts and speed, torching opposing defenses and literally setting NFL records for rushing yards by a QB in a single game. Unfortunately, as Fields has continued to progress in his overall game, the Bears simply haven’t been able to win outright. They blew a lead to the Detroit Lions this past weekend and Fields threw a pick-six in the process, leading to disappointment. But Chicago fans can see the forest through the trees.
Atlanta is not quite in the same boat. As much as people will want to see the positives of how the offense has progressed this season with Marcus Mariota at the helm, questions over his long-term sustainability in that spot remain, and the Falcons aren’t really in a great position to be able to draft someone high. The offense has been too good for any sort of “tanking” to happen here.
As far as NFL picks are concerned with this particular game, this is truly a toss-up. These two teams are quite similar but I think for my money, I would take the dynamic abilities and upside of Justin Fields lately. The Bears’ offense has been hot. If they can find a way to keep the Falcons under 30, I thin kthey stand a good chance here.
Prediction: Bears win 31-27
NFL Picks, Bills quarterback Josh Allen comes off the field after mishandling the snap from center that led to the Vikings go ahead touchdown late in the 4th quarter . The Bills went on to lose in overtime 33-30.[/caption]
Cleveland Browns (3-6) at Buffalo Bills (6-3)
Sunday, November 20, 1:00 PM ET
The Buffalo Bills have recently faced quite a bit of unexpected adversity. Remember back to Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season. The Bills were on the road against the reigning Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams, and they put on an absolute clinic. They looked like the league’s most well-oiled machine and people on Twitter were legitimately saying they didn’t think the Bills would (or could) lose a game.
Here we are entering Week 11 action, and the Bills have lost three. They have lost some tough matchups and while there’s no shame in losing an 8-1 team, the Bills kind of had to have that game at home, at least to recapture some momentum. Unfortunately, having the two parts of the Minneapolis Miracle on their roster (Case Keenum and Stefon Diggs) was not enough to derail the freight train that is the Minnesota Vikings.
Playing at home and coming off of a loss, how could you take the Cleveland Browns in this game against Buffalo?
The Browns got absolutely smacked this past weekend by the Miami Dolphins, an absolute drubbing to the tune of 39-17. Unfortunately, simply running the ball with Nick Chubb as often as possible doesn’t really do it over the course of four quarters against explosive offensive attacks. The Buffalo Bills, even with an injured Josh Allen or Case Keenum (if he has to play) are a much better team playing at home compared to the Browns.
Cleveland will have just one more game without Deshaun Watson this season and I think he’s almost guaranteed to inherit a 3-7 squad next week.
Prediction: Bills win 27-20
Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5-1)
Sunday, November 20, 1:00 PM ET
The Indianapolis Colts, to their credit, really rallied this weekend despite some of the craziest circumstances you’ll ever see for an NFL team. In less than a month’s time, they fired offensive coordinator Marcus Brady, benched quarterback Matt Ryan, fired head coach Frank Reich, and then made an unprecedented interim head coaching hire of Jeff Saturday.
And then they went on the road to beat the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday.
As sorry as the Raiders are right now as a franchise, you’ve got to tip your cap to the way the Colts were able to rally because the Colts fired head coach Frank Reich — after benching Matt Ryan — only to then bench Sam Ehlinger and reinsert Matt Ryan back into the lineup.
The Colts did Frank Reich dirty there, but for the time being, you can’t really argue with results. How long will the honeymoon last? The Colts have a tough test coming back home this weekend against the mighty Philadelphia Eagles, arguably the best team in the entire NFL this season.
The Eagles have been playing so well this season that it’s hard to pick against them, even if you consider some of the good vibes with the Colts right now. They got that momentum for a week, got an emotionally-charged win, and now the real test is coming. How do you defend your home field against the most well-rounded team in the league right now?
It’s going to be brutal. I will give the Colts credit here. I think they’ll make it a tight game if everything goes right for them, but I think the Eagles will keep rolling after the speed bump against Washington.
Prediction: Eagles win 23-20
New York Jets (6-3) at New England Patriots (5-4)
Sunday, November 20, 1:00 PM ET
Bill Belichick vs. Zach Wilson, part two.
The New England Patriots absolutely had Wilson in a tizzy last time these two teams faced off against each other, which was just a couple of weeks ago in New York. On October 30, Wilson threw three interceptions in a loss to the Patriots, but the Jets were able to bounce back and win the following week against the Buffalo Bills. That was undoubtedly one of the most shocking turnarounds of the season considering the fact that the Jets lost Breece Hall and ran for just 51 yards against New England.
The Patriots specialize in making life hard for opposing quarterbacks. They may not have the most star-studded cast of defensive playmakers, but New England is always in the right position, they are always disciplined, and when a quarterback like Zach Wilson feeds off of playing out of structure, the Patriots often feast.
That’s what I think will be the Jets’ downfall in a matchup like this, especially if they can’t get the running game going again. The Patriots playing at home doesn’t carry the same kind of weight as it once did, but it’s still and advantage for them in a matchup like this, even with the Jets coming off of a bye week.
I think Belichick and company are going to have a great plan for defending against Zach Wilson once again, and if they can force the ball into his hands, it’s tough to see the Jets going on the road and getting a win here, even with extra time to prepare.
Prediction: Patriots win 23-16
Los Angeles Rams (3-6) at New Orleans Saints (3-7)
Sunday, November 20, 1:00 PM ET
The 3-6 Los Angeles Rams against the 3-7 New Orleans Saints. Nothing says midseason blockbuster quite like this, does it?
If John Wolford is starting again this week for the Rams along with Andy Dalton for the New Orleans Saints, this might be one of the least watchable games of the season. Not to mention, the Rams are almost undoubtedly going to be without Cooper Kupp for a bit of time after the superstar receiver suffered an injury this past weekend that looked scarier than it turned out to be.
Stafford was in concussion protocol this past week so his status for this game is iffy at best, but let’s assume he clears protocol and plays against the Saints. Is that going to be enough for the Rams, especially without Stafford’s safety blanket out there? Who knows? Maybe Kupp will miraculously be back out there on the field for this one.
Either way, I’m not sure it changes much.
Not that the Saints are that good, the Rams have just been horrendous this season. But so have the Saints.
The Saints don’t know who their quarterback of the future will be. Injury issues have continued to mount for Michael Thomas. There has been no consistent production from really anyone in the passing game and week-to-week, how do you know what version of Andy Dalton you’re going to get?
If this turns out to be a defensive battle with two quarterbacks known for their willingness to put the ball in harm’s way, I guess I’m going to take guys like Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald, but this is one of the NFL picks of the week I’m not overly confident about.
Prediction: Rams win 24-21
Detroit Lions (3-6) at New York Giants (7-2)
Sunday, November 20, 1:00 PM ET
Now this game is fascinating. The New York Giants have been one of the best teams in the NFL this season, but just like the Tennessee Titans, they are kind of out there winning “ugly” on a week-to-week basis. Saquon Barkley has been the workhorse for the Giants, running the ball 35 times in the team’s win over the Houston Texans this past weekend and carrying the offense.
What has been really impressive this season is the turnaround of the New York Giants defense, especially in the pass rush department. Against the Houston Texans this past weekend, the Giants racked up 12 QB hits, four sacks, and five tackles for loss. They are living behind the line of scrimmage.
They will be put to the test this coming weekend against the Detroit Lions, who boast one of the top offensive lines in the NFL right now. The Lions are also winners of two straight games as the offense has found a way to get back on track after starting the season hotter than just about anyone else.
This past weekend, the Lions had a come-from-behind victory against the Chicago Bears which included a pick-six off Justin Fields after the Lions fired their secondary coach. The pick-six by Jeff Okudah was the difference-maker as the Lions won 31-30 on the road against the Bears, and Amon-Ra St. Brown was heavily involved in the offense scoring 24 of those 31 points.
Something’s got to give in this game. Will the Giants’ defensive line get the better of Detroit’s offensive line? Will Detroit be able to make plays against Daniel Jones and force him to turn the ball over a time or two?
I’ve been betting against the Giants all year in NFL picks but I’m taking them at home in this one.
Prediction: Giants win 22-20
Carolina Panthers (3-7) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
Sunday, November 20, 1:00 PM ET
The Carolina Panthers might get the chance to see what Sam Darnold’s got left after they’ve cycled through every other quarterback on their roster so far this season, limping to a 3-7 record midway through the season without their head coach of the future under contract. Still, they’ve managed to win two of their last four games, including two divisional wins. They also came inches away from winning another in the three-game stretch, so perhaps their head coach of the future is already in the house (Steve Wilks).
PJ Walker has a high-ankle sprain and Baker Mayfield will be the starter this week, going up against a very familiar opponent in the Baltimore Ravens. Mayfield has played the Ravens twice a year since his rookie season back in 2018 and he has not fared overly well against them. Although they are a divisional opponent, Mayfield has thrown more interceptions against the Ravens (9) than any other team.
The familiarity between Mayfield and the Ravens will work much more in the Ravens’ favor this week as Lamar Jackson and company are coming off of a bye week and get to play at home in this one.
Looking at this game from an NFL picks perspective, the Ravens are a pretty easy call to make. It would require a weird upset for the Panthers to come away with a win in this one because Baltimore is coming out of the bye looking to prove they are one of the best teams in the AFC the rest of the way here in 2022.
I think the Ravens win this one easily.
Prediction: Ravens win 30-17
Washington Commanders (5-5) at Houston Texans (1-7-1)
Sunday, November 20, 1:00 PM ET
Sadly, the debut of Chase Young is going to have to wait one more week. The Commanders aren’t going to activate their defensive star before this game against the Houston Texans, but he has a good chance of playing next week if all goes well. That’s great news for Washington, and perhaps also great news for Houston.
Young’s debut will have to wait, which means Davis Mills won’t have to worry about running away from him. Unfortunately, the Commanders are still going to find ways to get after Mills, whose Texans are a league-worst 1-7-1 this season and competing for the no. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Washington is proving to be competitive this season despite having injury issues at the quarterback position. Taylor Heinicke is buying himself a pair of Jordan 1 shoes with every victory bonus he receives this season, and so long as he continues playing, the Commanders’ offense seems to be pretty decent with him out there, even if it’s slightly limited.
Houston’s offensive issues certainly don’t have anything to do with star rookie running back Dameon Pierce, who has instantly become one of the best and most consistent backs in the entire NFL. Will the Commanders be able to bottle him up? They have been pretty stingy this season, allowing just 4.4 yards per carry and only four rushing touchdowns all season.
If they can limit Dameon Pierce, the Commanders should be able to scrape and claw one inch closer to one of those NFC Wild Card positions.
Prediction: Commanders win 20-15
Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) at Denver Broncos (3-6)
Sunday, November 20, 4:05 PM ET
When it comes to unmet expectations, it could be argued that no teams have been more disappointing this season than the Las Vegas Raiders and the Denver Broncos. These two teams went absolutely bonkers this offseason trying to upgrade their rosters and keep up in the AFC West arm’s race, which looks at this point to be the Kansas City Chiefs and no one else.
The Raiders gave Derek Carr a big extension and traded for his best pal Davante Adams. They signed Chandler Jones in free agency and hired Josh McDaniels away from the New England Patriots. It hasn’t mattered. The Raiders have blown leads, they have been blown out, and they have been horrendous.
The Denver Broncos haven’t been much better.
They’ve been lucky to win three games so far this season with Russell Wilson at the quarterback position, which has been painful to watch. The Broncos’ offense is pathetic, barely averaging two scores per game so far this season. Nobody expected things to be this bad when Wilson left Seattle and got traded to the Broncos, joining Nathaniel Hackett in Denver.
And yet, things have been worse than bad. They have gotten to the point that the Broncos have to be wondering if they are stuck with Russell Wilson and still in QB purgatory rather than having found their savior at the position.
As of right now, Wilson and the Broncos are a laughing stock in the NFL. They can’t run the ball. They lead the league in penalties. They have a ton of starters injured. Wilson isn’t playing well or even passable.
Yet in this matchup, somebody has to win. Somebody has to get on the right track. First to 20 wins?
Prediction: Broncos win 23-20
Dallas Cowboys (6-3) at Minnesota Vikings (8-1)
Sunday, November 20, 4:25 PM ET
One of the famous lines from Marvel’s Captain America is, “I could do this all day.”
As much resilience as Steve Rogers showed, taking hits and getting back up again, I think I have taken a similar approach to Vikings games in NFL picks so far this season. And by that I mean, every single week, I doubt the sustainability of what they’re doing and every single week, they go out there and get a win.
The Vikings have been one of the most resilient teams in the entire NFL so far this season, and Justin Jefferson has vaulted into probably the no. 1 spot for wide receivers this year. Minnesota has been so impressive and after a stunning road win against the Buffalo Bills in Week 10, they return home to their fans for a massive game against the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas had a huge lead on the road against the Green Bay Packers before crumbling late, giving the game away in overtime. It was only their third loss so far this season but it was a brutal one for Dallas, who is pretty far behind the Eagles in their own division at this point.
Simply put, this is the best game on the slate in Week 11 of the 2022 NFL season. There’s not going to be a more widely watched game than this one and everyone is going to be tuning in to see how legit the Vikings are. Although a win against Buffalo is as impressive a notch on your belt as you can get these days, that win simply got everyone to buy in to this Vikings hype train.
Probably too late, but better late than never.
Can Kevin O’Connell’s crew continue this epic winning streak? Can Dallas find a way to come back from a brutal loss at the hands of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers?
I think this one is going to be close, and I think there are going to be some fireworks. I’m going against the habit I’ve had all year and I’m picking the Vikings.
Prediction: Vikings win 30-27
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)
Sunday, November 20, 4:25 PM ET
TJ Watt came back to the lineup for the Pittsburgh Steelers after suffering what many believed in the moment to be a season-ending injury, and to no one’s surprise, the Steelers were much more formidable. They were able to overcome their offensive woes this season as Watt had a QB hit in his return to the field while Alex Highsmith had a pair of sacks.
Kenny Pickett was sacked six times this past week against the New Orleans Saints, but thankfully for him, he’s going to be facing off against one of the league’s worst pass rush units this season in terms of sacks per game.
The Steelers will have to score at least 20 points to beat the Bengals, but that’s proven to be very difficult for them so far this season with less than 16 points per game so far in 2022. The defense has given up a couple of ugly numbers on the scoreboard this season, and they have given up more passing yards (and touchdowns) than just about every other team in the league this season.
The Bengals desperately need to find a way to win on the road this week against the Steelers and TJ Watt is going to make it borderline impossible for them to do it. Joe Burrow has been sacked 30 times in nine games and the problems the Bengals had last year protecting him clearly haven’t gone anywhere.
In this matchup, I don’t think you can discount the return of TJ Watt to the lineup. As he gets used to being back out there on the field, he’s the type of player that can dominate games. I think playing at home, Watt is going to be the difference maker late in a close game as the Steelers take this one.
Predictions: Steelers win 24-23
Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)
Sunday, November 20, 8:20 PM ET
The NFL flexed this game into prime time, and flexed out the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers. Rightfully so, because the Bengals and Steelers aren’t what NFL fans really want to see in prime time right now.
The question is, can the Chargers find a way to win at home against the mighty Kansas City Chiefs? Is anyone really banking on it? As good as Justin Herbert is, the guy has a serious issue in the fourth quarter and the Chargers are one of the worst fourth-quarter teams in the league since he became their starting quarterback. The Chargers have had some bad injury issues at receiver this year, so Herbert’s struggles have been somewhat understandable, but he’s currently on pace for his worst season yet as a pro, statistically.
But against the Chiefs, Herbert finds a way to get up. He threw three touchdowns in the last meeting between these two teams (in September) and you’ve got to think his receivers are going to work hard to get up for this game as well.
The Chiefs are simply too good offensively to bet against right now. Their only kryptonite seems to be the Tennessee Titans, but even against the Titans, the Chiefs found a way to win.
Patrick Mahomes threw four touchdown passes this past weekend to four different receivers, and Kansas City racked up five sacks in the team’s win over the Jaguars. Can the defense keep the heat on against Justin Herbert, or will Herbert find a way to get back on track against them?
He’s got 13 career touchdown passes against the Chiefs, and I think he’s going to throw a handful more this weekend. Unfortunately, I think it’s going to be in defeat.
Prediction: Chiefs win 33-28
San Francisco 49ers (5-4) at Arizona Cardinals (4-6)
Monday, November 21, 8:15 PM ET
The Arizona Cardinals did one thing right this past weekend in their 27-17 victory over the Los Angeles Rams — they got the ball to their best players on offense. Colt McCoy has now improved to 3-1 as the starter for the Cardinals when he’s asked to step in, and he got the ball to DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore 19 total times — 10 for Hopkins and nine for Moore — in the Cardinals’ much-needed bounce-back divisional win.
Those two players were targeted a total of 27 times and the Cardinals’ offensive results are hard to argue with. They scored 27 points and it helped McCoy to an overall QB rating of nearly 97. They are going to need those players to step up in a big way in their home game against the San Francisco 49ers, who are coming off of a prime-time win against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday night.
The 49ers’ defense paved the way for their fifth win of the season, shutting down Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler as Elijah Mitchell returned to the lineup and Christian McCaffrey scored the game-winning touchdown.
The 49ers got nine QB hits on Justin Herbert on Sunday night and they have proven in recent weeks that they are the type of team right now that can win in a variety of different ways. They can win by playing tough defense, they can win by grinding things out in the running game, they can be explosive in the passing game…the 49ers are just going to be tough to get by as the season goes along.
I think it’s going to take a huge effort from either Kyler Murray or Colt McCoy to get the Cardinals a win in this game, even playing at home.
Prediction: 49ers win 24-20