This offseason will be filled with many questions about where players will end up. One name that has highlighted this storyline for the last few years is Aaron Rodgers. Every offseason seems like a saga when following Rodgers. Will he retire? Will he return to Green Bay? Will he be traded? If I had to put my money on it, I would say that the 39-year-old quarterback will get traded this offseason.
There are quite a few teams that come up in this conversation, but the two that make the most sense and most plausible landing spots for Rodgers are the Raiders and Jets.
The first team that I will discuss is the Raiders. Las Vegas is coming off a pretty disappointing season, going 6-11 despite acquiring Devante Adams from the Packers to pair with Derek Carr, while adding talent on the defensive side of the ball as well. Carr’s stint with the Raiders is clearly concluded, and Las Vegas front office needs to make sure that it does not waver Adams’ confidence in the direction the organization is going. Tom Brady was the most popular bet to be the Raiders’ next quarterback in 2023, but after announcing his retirement on Wednesday, it has opened the door to discussing the possibility of landing Aaron Rodgers.
Why the Raiders make sense for Rodgers
The Raiders are in an interesting spot this offseason. Las Vegas is in a win-now mode with the pieces that it has, but it feels like the Raiders are trying to reload and rebuild at the same time.
The Raiders possess the seventh pick in the 2023 draft, a spot that is very plausible for a quarterback to be available, but Josh McDaniels may not have the time to develop a quarterback. After failing to make the playoffs, and in the fashion the Raiders lost games last season, McDaniels could be on a very short leash. Because of this, the Raiders may be more aggressive in acquiring a quarterback that can help the team make the playoffs right now.
The major component in all of this is Adams. The Rodgers-Adams connection in Green Bay was historically great, and the two future Hall-of-Famers are not getting any younger. Adams is 30 years old and the window of winning a championship with Adams is smaller than what the Raiders probably want to admit. Pairing Adams with Rodgers could elevate this offense to new levels in 2023.
In addition, this offense would supply Aaron Rodgers with plenty of weapons. However, a piece that would most likely be included in the trade package is Darren Waller. Having Waller in the trade could save the Raiders a first-round pick. So, the pass-catching options would most likely consist of Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Mack Hollins.
Las Vegas currently holds $19.7 million in cap space heading into 2023 and can free up another $30 million by releasing or trading Carr before Feb. 15. That paired with the salary cap expected to be increased to $224.8 million – a $16.6 million increase from the 2022 NFL season – allows the Raiders to have enough room to fit Rodgers under the cap while having the ability to retain Josh Jacobs and add a couple of pieces in free agency.
Why the Raiders do NOT make sense for Rodgers
Rodgers has shown the willingness to discuss retirement openly the last few offseasons, and that could be a riskier proposition for a team that may have to give up some type of haul for the 39-year-old quarterback. It would be very risky to potentially trade the seventh pick, Waller, and possibly other draft compensation for possibly one or two years with Rodgers at the helm.
Trading for Rodgers is one thing, but another aspect is the fact the Raiders are in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. The division got a little more crowded with Kellen Moore being named the offensive coordinator for the Chargers and Sean Payton being hired as the Broncos head coach.
The AFC West was underwhelming this past season, but I expect the Chargers to be a much better offense with an actual competent offensive coordinator and the Broncos may just have to be in a middle-of-the-pack offense to be competitive with that defense.
If Rodgers wants to compete for a championship without going through a gauntlet just to win the division, it may not be the smartest idea. The Chiefs have won seven straight division titles and are going nowhere as long as Mahomes is the quarterback. Herbert has been labeled as a “social media quarterback”, but being paired with Kellen Moore should finally allow the 24-year-old quarterback to unleash his talent and abilities. We are not sure how Russell Wilson will look with Payton, but it cannot be as bad as last season. Wilson will most likely look like a completely different quarterback in 2023, and Denver’s offense has an abundance of talent on the offensive side of the ball. Our proclamation that the AFC West is the best division in football may have been a year too early.
Playing with Adams may sound too appealing to turn down, but this is not the NFC North with two teams that have been historically awful and the main competition for the division being led by Kirk Cousins. There are two cornerstone quarterbacks in Mahomes and Herbert, and another quarterback being paired with a great offensive mind in Denver.
Why the Jets make sense for Rodgers
With that being said, the Jets are on the other side of this conversation. New York went 7-10, missing out on the playoffs, but with competent quarterback play, would have been a surefire playoff team. However, Zach Wilson was one of, if not the worst quarterback in the league in 2022. It is obvious that the Jets are done with the Wilson experiment, and are ready to become a legit, competitive football team.
Despite being the laughingstock of the NFL for over a decade or so, it does appear the Jets are turning a corner in its franchise’s history. New York has solidified a top-tier defense with young, ascending talent in Quinnen Williams, Jermaine Johnson, D.J. Reed, and Sauce Gardner, who stepped in on day one as a rookie as a top-three cornerback in the league. The talent on the offensive side of the ball isn’t too shabby with the likes of Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, and Breece Hall as some of the best young weapons in the league. Rodgers would be entering a similar situation as in Green Bay with young talent on the outside. Because the Jets have so much young talent, they are not paying players at all yet, having more than enough room to fit Rodgers under the cap.
Familiarity is another factor in this whole thing. I was not a huge fan of the hire, but the Jets brought in Nathaniel Hackett as the offensive coordinator. Whether you like it or not, the main reason for this hire was to entice Rodgers to join the Jets. While I think Hackett is a terrible offensive mind, Rodgers did win back-to-back MVPs with him as the offensive coordinator in Green Bay.
Another component of this is the fact that the AFC East is not as good as we think. The Bills went all in for this season and failed. Josh Allen regressed this season without Brian Daboll, and the Bills offense is heavily reliant on Allen. Not to mention that Buffalo has a number of players who will be entering free agency, such as, Jordan Poyer, Rodger Saffold, Tremaine Edmunds, Devin Singletary, and Dane Jackson, among others that will leave the Bills with many needs heading into the offseason. Von Miller will also be coming off an ACL injury, while Allen and Stefon Diggs’ contract extensions will be kicking in next season. Both players will account for $60 million combined. Buffalo does not have the luxury of building around a quarterback on a rookie deal anymore.
The Dolphins are in a tricky situation with Tua Tagovailoa. The 24-year-old quarterback suffered multiple concussions this past season, and when healthy, has shown his limitations with athletic ability and arm talent. Miami was a streaky team last season, starting the season with three straight wins, then losing three straight, then winning five straight, then losing five straight heading into the season finale needing a win to make the playoffs. The Dolphins are clearly a talented team, but it is a team that could be held back by quarterback play.
Then, there are the Patriots who should not concern anyone in the slightest.
The New York media is another factor in all of this. It will eat young quarterbacks alive, but Rodgers would be able to step in and handle all the criticism and scrutiny. He has been doing that for the last few years.
If the Jets were to land Rodgers, I would expect New York to win the AFC East and host at least one playoff game.
Why the Jets do NOT make sense for Rodgers
There are not a lot of reasons to say this move does not make a lot of sense for the Jets, but there are a couple of elements that could pose problems for the Jets.
One, the offensive line is not the best unit, and Rodgers would probably like to play behind an offensive line that will allow him to stay in the pocket to pick apart defenses. Rodgers can still play outside the pocket, but at this point in his career, he wants to stay upright.
Secondly, Rodgers has shown reluctance to be committed in the offseason, and we saw how long it took to mesh with the young receivers in Green Bay. The Jets’ weapons are young, and obviously have no experience with Rodgers. It would be monumental for Rodgers and these receivers to gain chemistry early in the process.
It is really nitpicking, but those are reasons to consider if you are the Jets. If I’m the Jets, I am not trading multiple first-round picks. I would give up this year’s first, second, and next year’s second. Rodgers could easily retire after one season, and I am not going to get burned for that.
Verdict: The Jets make the most sense for Aaron Rodgers
With all that being said, the Jets are clearly a better situation for Aaron Rodgers. Competitively, talent, familiarity, pressure taken off shoulders with an excellent defense, and a better chance of winning a division is why the Jets are a great fit for Rodgers.
New York has more solidified than the Raiders, and Las Vegas has many more holes on its roster that Aaron Rodgers would have to cover up more than he would with the Jets. It also may not be a big deal to a lot of people, but while the Raiders have a third-place schedule, the Jets have a fourth-place schedule.
If Rodgers lands in New York, the Jets are serious contenders in the AFC.