NFL Free Agency 2023: Predicting landing spots for top 10 QBs

Although it apparently no longer includes the legendary Tom Brady, this year’s NFL Free Agency crop of quarterbacks is highly intriguing from top to bottom. It may not be littered with long-term answers at the position for teams in the market, but there are very good bridge QBs, very good backups, worthwhile reclamation projects, and more.

No matter what your team’s quarterback needs are, you can probably find an answer in the 2023 NFL Free Agency market, which is pretty rare and also exciting. It will certainly make for some fun storylines in the 2023 offseason.

Let’s take a look at the top 10 quarterbacks in this year’s NFL Free Agency group and try to predict where they might land in the Spring.

NFL Free Agency 2023: Top 10 QBs and where they will land

1. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson 2022 stats

• 12 games
• 62.3 completion rate
• 2,242 yards
• 17 TD
• 7 INT
• 764 rushing yards, 3 TDs

Simply put, Lamar Jackson is one of the most dynamic offensive weapons in the NFL today. Jackson was the MVP in the 2019 season when he had arguably the most ridiculously efficient offensive output you will ever see from a QB. Jackson and the Ravens were 32nd in the NFL in pass attempts that year, yet he ranked 1st in the NFL in passing touchdowns.

Jackson has multiple 1,000-yard rushing seasons. He’s obviously incredibly gifted and one of the signs of good faith from the Ravens as they hope to bring him back (obviously) is that they are giving Jackson input on who the OC will be this coming season. As of the time of this writing, we don’t know officially who that will be, but that doesn’t matter as much as the hundreds of millions of dollars the Ravens are going to have to offer Jackson very soon.

There has been talk — and it’s fun to talk about it — of Jackson getting traded this offseason. I think that’s an option until it’s not (never say never) but the smart bet is on the Ravens figuring out a way to get a deal done, or bringing Jackson back on the franchise tag.

Prediction: Re-signs with Baltimore Ravens

2. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith 2022 stats

• 17 games
• Pro Bowl
• NFL Comeback Player of the Year
• 69.8 completion rate
• 4,282 yards
• 30 TDs
• 11 INT
• 366 rushing yards, 1 TD

To put it rather simply, Geno Smith had his NFL breakout campaign at the age of 32. What many people thought we would see from the former West Virginia star 10 years ago when he was a New York Jet, we finally got to see in 2023 with the Seattle Seahawks.

As Geno himself said, people may have written him off, but he ain’t write back:

It was a tremendous year for Geno Smith, and it was a pretty outstanding year for the Seahawks with all things considered. Most people did write off the Seahawks after trading away franchise legend Russell Wilson and releasing another franchise legend in Bobby Wagner. The Seahawks, who had an open competition in training camp between Smith and Drew Lock, appeared to be in rebuild and reload mode.

They made the playoffs.

Now, depending on whether or not you’re a glass-half-full type of person or not, the Seahawks might be considered victims of their own success. Geno Smith’s 2022 campaign is going to necessitate — at worst — a franchise tag. And any short or long-term deal will likely require the franchise tag number as a starting point.

Will the Seahawks pay $30 million per year to keep Geno Smith around? It sounds like that’s the plan…

Prediction: Re-signs with Seattle Seahawks

3. Daniel Jones, New York Giants

Daniel Jones 2022 stats

• 16 games
• 67.2 completion rate
• 3,205 yards
• 15 TD
• 5 INT
• 708 rushing yards, 7 TD

The New York Giants may not have imagined, in their wildest dreams, that hiring Brian Daboll as the team’s head coach would pay such immediate dividends for former first-round pick Daniel Jones. Jones was a top-10 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft and as of this time a year ago, everyone was trying to figure out what the team was going to do to replace him.

As it turns out, the work we saw with Daboll in Buffalo with Josh Allen was, in fact, translatable to the Giants and Daniel Jones. Daboll and the Giants’ offensive staff (which includes HC candidate Mike Kafka) helped Jones to his best year as a pro so far in terms of overall efficiency, and the Giants won a playoff game with Jones at the helm (on the road vs. Minnesota).

Similar to the situation with Geno Smith in Seattle, you could view the Giants as victims of their own success here. They don’t have the luxury of another year of Jones on his rookie deal (declined his 5th-year option) in order to be able to see whether or not this season was a fluke or a sign of things to come.

Jones played well enough to get another year with the Giants, but is he going to hold out for more money elsewhere? I don’t see that being the case. Jones seems self-aware enough to realize that he’s got a good situation in New York and needs to stay there to grow, even if it means taking a bit of a discount. I still think we’ll see Jones get the type of money that seems outrageous given the perception of him as a player, but on a relatively easy to get out of deal for the Giants.

Prediction: Re-signs with New York Giants

4. Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers

Jimmy Garoppolo 2022 stats

• 11 games
• 67.2 completion rate
• 2,437 yards
• 16 TD
• 4 INT

I’m not sure there’s a better marriage out there for Jimmy Garoppolo than with Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers. Like it or not, Garoppolo has been one of the best game managing point guards in the NFL since he was traded to the 49ers back in 2017. QB wins may not be a stat that matters to everyone, but over a large sample size, it’s impossible to ignore that the 49ers are 38-17 with Garoppolo under center and they’ve been to the NFC Championship game three times since he came aboard.

Now, this past season, the 49ers had to make it to the NFCCG without Garoppolo, but he still helped them earn one of the best records in the NFL over his 11 games.

Again, I don’t know that there’s a better marriage for him in the NFL than in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. The 49ers seemingly said their goodbyes to Garoppolo last offseason, and Garoppolo certainly said his goodbyes in front of the San Francisco media. It was purely a last resort that he ended up back in San Francisco in the first place.

Now, in 2023, he doesn’t have the hurdles of offseason shoulder surgery or a big, ugly cap hit standing in the way of being pursued by other teams. Are the 49ers going to go into the 2023 season assuming one or both of Trey Lance/Brock Purdy will be ready to go?

Can they risk that given what this team has gone through injury-wise in recent years? Will it cost them extra to keep Garoppolo around, given the fact that they can’t guarantee him a role?

Will he opt to sign with a team like Houston and the Texans where DeMeco Ryans just landed a head coaching gig? Will he re-join forces with Josh McDaniels as a member of the Las Vegas Raiders?

Ultimately, I think teams would be foolish not to pursue Garoppolo. As the Kyle Shanahan tree bears fruit around the league, plenty of new teams make sense like the Texans and Jets, who have former 49ers assistants in the head coach’s chair.

It sounds like the writing is on the wall for his departure from the 49ers, however.

Prediction: Signs with Houston Texans

5. Baker Mayfield, Los Angeles Rams

Baker Mayfield 2022 stats

• 12 games
• 60.0 completion rate
• 2,163 yards
• 10 TD
• 8 INT

I know everyone has a different opinion of Baker Mayfield, but I think we could mostly all agree that in 2022, he got a raw deal from the Cleveland Browns. The Browns strung Mayfield along all offseason, knowing he wasn’t part of their immediate or future plans, only to trade him to the last willing team in the league instead of setting him free early on in the offseason.

If the Browns had done the right thing and released Mayfield earlier, or even traded him earlier, he might have gotten into a much better situation than the sinking ship that was the Carolina Panthers. By the time Steve Wilks took over as interim head coach, it was too late for Baker. That ship had sailed and Mayfield ended up hitting the waiver wire late in the season.

The Los Angeles Rams suffered a few injuries this season at the QB position, so they took a shot on Mayfield and it paid off for them. I guess, depending on how you look at it.

Mayfield provided some excitement early on. He helped the Rams to an obscene victory on Christmas over the Broncos that got Nathaniel Hackett fired in Denver. He was much more effective in Sean McVay’s offense than we’ve seen him in recent years, and you can’t help but wonder if there’s more opportunity for growth there.

I love the idea of Mayfield sticking with the Rams or going to the 49ers this offseason. I also love the idea of him latching on as Russell Wilson’s backup in Denver, working with Sean Payton. Mayfield has to go somewhere where the coach has a vested interest in seeing his development through. At this point, he’s a reclamation project, but not one without merit. Mayfield was the 2018 NFL offensive rookie of the year. There’s talent there. It’s going to take the right coach to unearth it and rehab his value so he can get more opportunities down the line.

Mayfield’s an Austin, TX native. Could we see a reunion between Mayfield and one of his former college coaches in Houston? It’s not out of the question, but the marriage with Sean McVay is too good of a situation for Mayfield presently.

Prediction: Signs with Los Angeles Rams

6. Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland Browns

Jacoby Brissett 2022 stats

• 11 games
• 64.0 completion rate
• 2,608 yards
• 12 TD
• 6 INT

Jacoby Brissett was not exactly spectacular in 2022, but he did pretty well considering the circumstances he was in with the Cleveland Browns. The Browns made the blockbuster trade with the Houston Texans to acquire Deshaun Watson, and Brissett was playing with a clear sand timer on his time in the lineup.

The added pressure didn’t seem to faze Brissett, who ended up playing better than I think a lot of people thought he would. Although the offense flowed through the running game and Nick Chubb, Cleveland had some big offensive outputs with Brissett under center, including a shocking Halloween victory over the Bengals where the Browns scored 32 points and Brissett had a passing and rushing TD.

Looking for his next possible destination is not overly difficult. Frank Reich was the head coach of the Indianapolis Colts when they traded for Brissett back in 2017. Brissett and Reich know each other extremely well, and it just so happens that Carolina is going to need a bridge QB for whatever they’re about to do in the NFL Draft, and Brissett can operate Reich’s offense.

Not only that, but he’s going to do well to show a young QB how to manage the game. Brissett doesn’t do much off-script, so he’s going to be able to set a good example for Reich in Carolina if the Panthers go out and get themselves a talent like Will Levis or Anthony Richardson in this draft class.

I think this one is a no-brainer, but time will tell. Brissett played his college ball at NC State, so this would be a homecoming of sorts.

Prediction: Signs with Carolina Panthers

7. Sam Darnold, Panthers

Sam Darnold 2022 stats

• 6 games
• 58.6 completion rate
• 1,143 yards
• 7 TD
• 3 INT

Sam Darnold appeared to be a lost cause for the Carolina Panthers until he got on the field this past season and almost immediately started raising eyebrows with his play. Darnold’s completion percentage was still below the 60 percent threshold that is typically acceptable, but he helped the Panthers win four of the six games he started, had his highest TD percentage ever, and cut down on the turnovers.

Darnold’s situation this coming offseason is not all that dissimilar to what Jameis Winston was facing after his 30-interception campaign with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He needs to get with the right coach to get him on the right track. He’s still just 25 years old, believe it or not, and his NFL career is far from over as we saw late in the 2022 season.

I don’t know if there’s a better situation for Darnold than to go work with Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos. It wasn’t exactly a glowing endorsement, but Payton felt back before the 2018 NFL Draft that Darnold would be the last of that year’s QBs standing, if he had to guess.

That seems like a massive indictment on Payton for missing on Josh Allen, but keep in mind that Allen was not unanimously considered a great prospect back then due to his tremendous accuracy issues. As it turns out, he’s become one of the best QBs in the league. It’s also important to note that Lamar Jackson was wrongfully not considered up there with the likes of Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, and Josh Allen in the 2018 NFL Draft class. He was considered a borderline first-round pick.

But I digress.

At any rate, Russell Wilson needs a backup that can actually push him. There are a few options on this very list that make plenty of sense, but perhaps none more so than Darnold, who was once the apple of John Elway’s eye. Elway is no longer making the decisions in Denver (GM George Paton and HC Sean Payton are), but the Broncos saw Darnold up close this past year, and got beat by him pretty bad.

Darnold has actually played well against the Broncos on a couple of occasions, and he’s in the kind of situation right now where he might be the perfect player for the Broncos to sign to a two-year deal and hedge their bets with Russell Wilson.

9. Taylor Heinicke, Washington Commanders

Taylor Heinicke 2022 stats:

• 9 games
• 62.2 completion rate
• 1,859 yards
• 12 TDs
• 6 INTs

The Washington Commanders have found a decent amount of success with Taylor Heinicke under center as the starting quarterback. Given the price to have him on the roster, he’s probably been one of the better values at the QB position in the league. His statistics won’t blow anyone away, but he helped the Commanders win more games than they lost when he was the starter.

In 24 regular season starts with the Commanders, Heinicke was part of 12 wins, 11 losses, and a tie.

Over the course of his NFL career, the primary tie that has mattered — a lot — for Heinicke has been his ties with Scott Turner, the former OC of the Washington Commanders who is now with the Las Vegas Raiders. Considering Heinicke has followed turner from his start in the NFL with the Vikings in 2015 to the Carolina Panthers and then to the Commanders, why not make it one more?

Turner is the passing game coordinator in Las Vegas, where they are about to jettison Derek Carr. It would make sense to have a contingency plan like Heinicke on the roster.

Prediction: Signs with Las Vegas Raiders

10. Mike White, New York Jets

There was a point during the 2022 NFL season when it felt like the New York Jets‘ hopes hinged on whether or not Mike White could stay healthy. The Jets certainly had quite a bit of faith in him, tasking him with throwing 175 passes in just four appearances last season. Unfortunately, White couldn’t match what he showed in his first appearance of the season, a three-touchdown game against the Bears.

In fact, he didn’t throw another touchdown pass for the rest of the season after that. Still, there was a bit of a spark when White came into the fold and you don’t let a guy throw 175 passes in four games unless you believe in his ability to sling the rock around. White did okay for himself, and will undoubtedly land a short-term deal somewhere he’s got a coaching connection. When he came into the league in 2018, he was drafted by the Dallas Cowboys where Kellen Moore was the QBs coach.

It just so happens that Moore is now without a backup in Los Angeles behind Justin Herbert…

Another connection to consider: Former Jets OC Mike LaFleur resurfaced this offseason with the Los Angeles Rams. A move to LA seems likely for Mike White.

Prediction: Signs with Los Angeles Chargers

Honorable Mentions/Soon to join 2023 NFL Free Agency

Carson Wentz, Commanders

The Washington Commanders appear poised to clean house at the QB position once again. Keep an eye out for Carson Wentz’s release. If/when that happens, he jumps into the top 10 of these rankings and I would say he’d be a candidate for a team like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Derek Carr, Raiders

Things seem to be progressing rather quickly between Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints. If the Saints can get a deal done there, I think they’re getting one of the early steals of the 2023 offseason.

Jarrett Stidham, Raiders

Jarrett Stidham might end up being one of the Raiders’ top contingency plans with Tom Brady out of the question. Unless he’s not…

Jameis Winston, Saints

If Jameis Winston is a cap casualty for the New Orleans Saints, watch out for the former number one pick joining forces again with Sean Payton in Denver as Russell Wilson’s backup.

Teddy Bridgewater, Dolphins

At this point, Teddy Bridgewater can’t really be your top backup option, can he? He’s a good player, but he can’t seem to stay on the field. I’m sure he’d love to stay in Miami but watch out for the Bucs here as well as NFL free agency gets rolling.