The 2023 NFL Free Agency class is rather loaded no matter what way you look at it, but perhaps no position group is more over-saturated than running back. This year’s running back group is outstanding from top to bottom, including All-Pro Josh Jacobs and Pro Bowler Saquon Barkley.
This free agent group of running backs includes five players who ran for 1,000 yards this past season. Even if that number doesn’t carry as much weight as it used to, there were only seven players to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards in the entire NFL in 2021. In 2022, that number jumped back up significantly, but a number of those 1,000-yard backs could now be changing homes.
We’re going to take a stab at predicting where those new homes might end up being. To keep this from being completely boring, we’re also going to pick a team for players if they leave, even if the likeliest projection is them staying put. You can also check out our predictions of 50 top NFL free agents and where they might sign here.
2023 NFL Free Agency: Where will the top 10 running backs sign?
1. Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs went from having his fifth-year option declined by the new regime in Las Vegas (Josh McDaniels, Dave Ziegler) to being one of the hottest offensive weapons in the entire league. Although you can chalk it up to Jacobs really showing out in a contract year, he’s managed to be pretty productive through four years with the Raiders, racking up at least 1,200 yards from scrimmage in all of his first four seasons, as well as 40 total touchdowns.
It reached a pinnacle for him in 2022, however, when he racked up 2,053 all-purpose yards and 12 total touchdowns.
The Raiders would be fools to get rid of him, right? Then again, they’re also dumping Derek Carr for nothing. It seems like the way things work with Josh McDaniels goes like this: You say you don’t want to play for the team he’s part of, and he finds a way to get you out of there quickly.
Jacobs seems like one of the likeliest franchise tag candidates in the NFL, to me, but with the Raiders, you just never know.
Prediction: Tagged by Raiders
If he leaves: Signs with Denver Broncos
2. Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
After his tremendous rookie campaign back in 2018, it felt like NFL fans were simply left longing for the good old days with Saquon Barkley. Injuries limited him tremendously from 2019-2021, but we finally got the chance to see the closest thing to 2018 Saquon Barkley here in the 2022 season.
Most everyone on the New York Giants this past season got a new jolt of life when the team brought in Brian Daboll and his coaching staff. Daboll was fortunate enough to have a healthy season from Barkley, who ran for over 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns. Although Barkley wasn’t as involved this past year as a receiver as he was in that sensational 2018 season, he was still a key piece of that aspect of the offense as well.
Given the fact that Barkley was so limited by injuries from 2019-2021, it stands to reason that the Giants are going to be cautious when it comes to potentially just throwing a huge contract his way. He seems, to me, to be one of the likeliest franchise tag candidates of all 2023 NFL Free Agency, right up there with his 2023 classmate Josh Jacobs.
It’s just hard to see the Giants putting so much money in a long-term deal for Barkley given what we saw three out of the last five years. But if the Giants were to let him leave, you had better believe some team would pay for his talent.
It’s funny how that works in the NFL, isn’t it? The team that knows you best might not give you the best deal, while teams that are desperate for an influx of talent might end up giving you the bag and regretting it later. That’s free agency in a nutshell.
If he leaves: Signs with Los Angeles Rams
3. Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
For years now, a lot of people have been saying that Tony Pollard is the best running back in Dallas — not Ezekiel Elliott. Well, it’s possible now that the Dallas Cowboys will have to choose between one or the other given Elliott’s current contract situation, and Pollard’s deal expiring following the best season of his NFL career.
Pollard earned Pro Bowl recognition this past season after he ran for over 1,000 yards, racked up over 1,300 yards from scrimmage with 12 total touchdowns, and also continued to add value on special teams with 489 kickoff return yards (28.8 average) and a kick return touchdown.
This guy is a playmaker, and plenty of teams out there would love to have him. The unfortunate thing for Pollard? Well, Pollard suffered a broken leg, high-ankle sprain, and some ligament damage that needed to be repaired as the Cowboys were eliminated from the playoffs in January. The timing of such a devastating injury for Pollard could not have been worse.
You have to hope, at this point, that the Cowboys do right by Pollard and give him the franchise tag. That would guarantee him over $10 million this coming season where his status is obviously going to be in question. Even if he’s able to come back and play this year, will he be the same guy?
The Cowboys aren’t exactly flush with cap space right now, though, and they have other needs they have to address. They simply can’t let Tony Pollard walk out the door, though. Some other team would likely pay him a back-loaded deal with a big signing bonus, banking on him coming back fully healthy at some point.
Can you imagine if the Cowboys let this guy go, and he somehow signs with the Kansas City Chiefs?
Prediction: Tagged by Cowboys
If he leaves: Signs with Chiefs
4. Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles made it to the Super Bowl this past year thanks largely to the effectiveness of their running game. Miles Sanders was a big part of that all throughout the season, although if you do a quick scan through Twitter, it doesn’t seem like many Eagles fans would be sad to see him go.
Over the course of his four years with the Eagles, Sanders has averaged 5.0 yards per carry. He made the Pro Bowl this past season after finishing just shy of 1,300 rushing yards with 11 total touchdowns. The Eagles certainly used a variety of running backs but Sanders was the leader of the pack.
It seems like there are many people out there who project that Sanders will be the “top” running back to actually hit the market if you consider the top four players on our list here (Jacobs, Barkley, Pollard, Sanders) to be the consensus top four. If he does hit the market, Sanders shouldn’t have much of an issue finding a new home.
Anytime free agents leave one team for another, you’ve got to look for some major coaching connections. Considering the fact that Miles Sanders is a Pennsylvania lifer at this point (Pittsburgh native, played at Penn State, drafted by Philadelphia), it stands to reason he would want some level of comfortability with his new destination.
It just so happens that former Eagles running backs coach and assistant head coach Duce Staley (who was around for the beginning of Sanders’ NFL career) is now part of Frank Reich’s Avengers-level coaching staff in Carolina. The Panthers don’t have Christian McCaffrey anymore. Their top back — D’Onta Foreman — is a free agent (more on him later). They have a need for offensive playmakers.
We saw how heavily Reich emphasized the running game when he had Jonathan Taylor in Indianapolis. Now, I think we’ll see him land a big-time player like Sanders in Carolina, with an assist to Duce Staley.
Prediction: Signs with Carolina Panthers
5. Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions
Who had Jamaal Williams leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns on their 2022 BINGO card? The 2022 NFL season was kind of a weird one, but Williams becoming addicted to the end zone was a very welcomed sight. Especially after he poured his heart and soul out on the HBO series Hard Knocks, it was cool to see him have such a monster season in a contract year.
Williams basically exemplifies everything the Detroit Lions probably have plastered all over the walls of their facilities. Whatever you can think of as far as a phrase or cliche when it comes to toughness, team-first, hard work, or anything of that nature, Williams exemplifies it.
And he produced at a very high level for Detroit.
Even with virtually no involvement in the passing game at this point, how do the Lions not bring back Jamaal Williams in 2023? This guy is so crucial to their offensive plan, whether you’re talking about getting ahead of the sticks on early downs, converting in short-yardage situations, or punching the ball into the end zone when they get red zone opportunities.
He’s their closer on strong drives, and he was one of the best in the NFL this past season with 17 touchdowns.
I’m banking on Detroit giving Williams a 2-3 year contract to continue being that guy for them.
Prediction: Re-signs with Detroit
If he leaves: Could also follow Duce Staley to Carolina Panthers
6. Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns
In a year’s time, maybe less, we could look back on this list and regret having Kareem Hunt so high on it. Is it possible that Hunt is merely the sixth biggest name among 2023 NFL Free Agent running backs? Very much so, yes.
Hunt was trying to demand his way out of Cleveland last year in a trade to prove that he could still be someone’s lead back before hitting free agency in 2023, but the Browns did not oblige. Instead, Hunt had one of the worst seasons, at least statistically, that we’ve ever seen from him. His average yards per carry were down to 3.8, the lowest of his career. He wasn’t breaking tackles at as high of a rate.
Hunt simply wasn’t as effective on a per-touch basis as we’re used to seeing from him. It’s very possible that his best days are well behind him at this point, but I think it’s worth a shot to sign him to a short-term deal and perhaps see if he can bounce back for a couple of seasons.
Hunt has always been known for a couple of things:
- He doesn’t need to come off the field
- He’s one of the best at creating yardage after contact in the NFL.
Those two things have really defined Kareem Hunt throughout his professional career, at least on the field. Now, when it comes to off-field, that’s another aspect of Hunt’s free agency that certainly complicates matters. Teams will be leery of signing Hunt, potentially, and that’s understandable.
I feel like we’ll see him have plenty of suitors although it might take a little bit of time for his free agency to really materialize.
Prediction: Signs with Buffalo Bills
7. D’Onta Foreman, Carolina Panthers
We saw a couple of shocking late-bloomer types of stories throughout the NFL in the 2022 season, and one of them was D’Onta Foreman having a true breakout year as a member of the Carolina Panthers. Foreman was once considered a pretty stellar prospect coming out of Texas. He was drafted by the Houston Texans with the 89th overall pick back in 2017.
He played in just 11 games for the Texans before he didn’t play at all in 2019. He resurfaced with the Titans in 2020 and 2021 where he sort of found his footing. In 2021, he had 566 rushing yards in nine games averaging 4.3 yards per carry. With the Panthers in 2022, Foreman really stepped up in a big way, especially after the Christian McCaffrey trade.
He ran for 914 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. He didn’t offer much as a receiver in the passing game but Foreman proved he can carry the rock and do some damage when he’s given a solid workload back there.
He will be 27 this coming season and I’m sure the Panthers, even under a new regime, would love to have him back at the right price. The question is, what is the situation in Carolina going to look like? Are they going to bring in other players on this list as I’ve already speculated?
Foreman has to get the maximum value he possibly can on this contract. It might be the only big one he gets as an NFL player given his age and how the league looks at the running back position. maybe we see a reunion for Foreman with his old pals in Tennessee this offseason given the fact that Dontrell Hilliard is hitting free agency as well.
I just think he has a great situation in Carolina with this new coaching staff coming in, and if the Panthers do go out and draft a young QB, they are going to need as many guys as they can get at running back to carry the load. I think a combination of Miles Sanders and D’Onta Foreman in that Carolina backfield behind an improving offensive line sounds tremendous.
Prediction: Re-signs with Panthers
8. David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
David Montgomery is a player that I think you could tell from his days at Iowa State — this guy’s going to be good for a long time in the NFL. He always did everything so well and we’ve seen that translate to the NFL as Montgomery has been given a high volume of touches both in the running game and passing game.
His three-down ability will certainly endear him to offensive coaches, and he’s racked up over 1,000 total touches in his first four NFL seasons. He’s also averaging over 1,000 yards from scrimmage in those four seasons. His career yards per carry average is a slightly concerning 3.9, but then again, Montgomery hasn’t been running behind the best offensive lines in the league, either.
He’s a Cincinnati native, so could we see him head off to play for the Bengals if they move on from players like Samaje Perine and maybe even Joe Mixon? It’s not impossible, depending on what kind of price point we’re looking at.
Could the Chicago Bears bring him back? Maybe, but it also doesn’t seem like that’s part of their plan at this point. You could maybe see the Bears being bigger players for some of the top guys in this market if they do actually end up hitting the market.
But I think Montgomery will get plenty of looks from other teams and his added value as a receiver definitely helps with his overall valuation.
When you look at what Montgomery brings to the table, his overall usage with the Bears the last four years and also his usage at Iowa State can raise a red flag. He might only get a two-year offer from teams because of that, but that’s just the ugly nature of the beast right now if you’re an NFL running back.
Prediction: Signs with Cincinnati Bengals
9. Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills
Devin Singletary has had a pretty quiet four seasons with the Buffalo Bills, but he’s been a productive back when you look at his numbers on the whole. As we approach NFL Free Agency, he’s probably one of the most underrated players available.
Singletary has found a way to average over 1,000 yards from scrimmage in each of his first four NFL seasons, and he racked up 14 total touchdowns from 2021-22 for the Bills, including a career-best eight a season ago.
Singletary doesn’t have a single season in the NFL yet with 200 or more carries, so you’ve got to think he’s got plenty left to offer whatever his next NFL team may end up being.
As with any player hitting NFL Free Agency, you’ve got to look for connections around the league. Obviously, Singletary wouldn’t have to move too far to go and be with his old pals Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll, who are now with the New York Giants.
Let’s just get way ahead of ourselves here and say that Saquon Barkley does leave in free agency — wouldn’t Singletary be a nice piece for the Giants to add at a greatly reduced cost?
Prediction: Signs with New York Giants
10. Damien Harris, New England Patriots
The New England Patriots saw Damien Harris skyrocket in value as of the 2021 NFL season when he racked up 15 rushing touchdowns and 55 first down runs, but his value diminished a bit in 2022 when Rhamondre Stevenson really became the bell-cow back for the Patriots’ offense.
Now that Bill O’Brien is back in the mix, perhaps the Patriots will consider re-signing Harris in 2023 NFL free agency. With that being said, Harris is just 26 years old and the former third-round pick out of Alabama is going to have plenty of teams after his services, especially in such an over-saturated market where he could come at a bargain price.
Harris might be more inclined to take a short-term deal somewhere where he knows he can maximize his value, but then again, what good is that for running backs in today’s NFL?
I don’t know if there’s a more obvious fit for Harris than the Las Vegas Raiders. Although the possibility exists that the Raiders will re-sign Josh Jacobs and make signing someone like Damien Harris total overkill, there’s also a chance that we would see Jacobs bolt in free agency and become one of the most coveted guys on the market.
If Jacobs leaves Las Vegas, I think Damien Harris becomes a real option there. You’ve got to think that Josh McDaniels believes in the guys he’s coached in the past. Not that every free agent pickup for the Raiders will be a reunion, but certainly a player like Harris who scored 15 touchdowns for McDaniels in 2021 is someone he’d like to reunite with in NFL Free Agency.