Every year, NFL Free Agency offers fans for many teams the opportunity to be optimistic. If your team is active in free agency and you can win in March, putting a better team down on paper, maybe things will be different come time for the regular season to begin. Unfortunately, a lot of decisions get made during NFL Free Agency that general managers and executives around the league live to regret.
Especially when the market dictates a player gets paid more than his production — to this point — is really worth, you get into some dangerous risk-reward territory. It’s impossible to truly know whether a free agent is getting overpaid until we see the proof of what they can do on the field at their next destination, but let’s try to predict the 10 NFL free agents in 2023 who will be overpaid in this current market.
10 players who will be overpaid in 2023 NFL Free Agency
10. Chiefs WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman
With the amount of team success the Kansas City Chiefs have had over the last six years, they have become a brand name in the NFL that teams want to emulate as much as they possibly can. Whether you’re talking about having so much speed offensively or finding a quarterback that can work in and out of structure as well as Patrick Mahomes, every NFL team would love to have a piece of what the Kansas City Chiefs have.
It just so happens that you can have a couple of pieces of their offensive weaponry in 2023 NFL free agency.
These two pieces in particular are wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman. Spotrac.com has calculated Smith-Schuster’s annual market value at $14.6 million per year and Hardman’s annual market value at $10.3 million per year. No matter what way you slice it, you’re probably looking at these guys being two of the most overpaid players in NFL free agency, for a couple of reasons.
1. They are coming from Kansas City
2. This year’s wide receiver market is extremely thin
NFL teams should remember how ice cold they were on JuJu Smith-Schuster in last year’s free agency before he signed a very modest deal in Kansas City. With Mecole Hardman, questions should be asked about why he wasn’t able to step into a bigger role despite plenty of opportunities to do so. He was also only on the field for eight games this past season.
There are big-time Curtis Samuel vibes there from Hardman, although he might be a worthwhile dart throw for some teams.
9. Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
It was really hard to include Saquon Barkley on this list. When healthy, I think he’s one of the biggest difference makers in the league, but that’s obviously the big asterisk here, isnt it?
After the Giants took Saquon with the second pick of the 2018 NFL Draft, he gave them a very quick and impressive return on investment with over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns in his first NFL season. From that point on, it was uphill trudging for Barkley who would miss 24 games over the next three seasons.
He was finally healthy for most of the 2022 season in New York and at the age of 26 looks poised to cash in big in free agency if the New York Giants let him get there. The big caveat here is that the Giants have to let Barkley get to the market, or perhaps work out a sign and trade if they franchise tag him.
Although the Giants have plenty of cap space, Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen have not historically shown they are prone to investing a ton in the running back position. In fact, the entire NFL right now is really on a kick of not investing in that position group. Perhaps Le’Veon Bell’s historically bad deal signed just a handful of years ago has scared folks away…
Barkley’s current market value of just over $12 million per season seems like a bargain but what we’re looking at here in terms of being “overpaid” is guaranteed money a team is willing to give Barkley. If you put a ton of guaranteed money down at the running back position, you could be setting yourself up for massive disappointment.
It just rarely works out in today’s NFL to pay running backs a ton of cash, although there are some exceptions.
8. Javon Hargrave, DL, Philadelphia Eagles
Three years ago, Javon Hargrave was one of the top values in NFL Free Agency. Here in 2023, he might be one of the worst. This is not to try and diminish the great things Hargave has done on the field, which need to be highlighted.
Javon Hargrave 2023 stats
- 60 total tackles
- 11.0 sacks
- 16 QB hits
- 10 tackles for loss
- 18 pressures
Although some of these numbers were the best of Hargrave’s career, this production hardly came out of nowhere. He’s been an outstanding player since his days with the Pittsburgh Steelers and he’s only evolved and gotten better over time. So why is he shaping up to be one of the most “overpaid” free agents? Well, unfortunately, Hargrave has crossed the age 30 threshold that seems to be so important in the NFL, and he certainly doesn’t play a very ageless position in the trenches on the defensive line.
Given his age and the contract he’s set to command (possibly north of $20 million per year), can you really count on Hargrave producing at the level we saw in 2022 again at any other NFL stop? He had such an amazing cast around him with the Philadelphia Eagles which certainly helped aid in his overall productivity, at least statistically. Although Hargrave is a difference-maker on his own, he was in a great situation as well.
It’s just hard to see him having the same amount of success with a team like the Bears on a five-year, $100 million deal as we saw him have in Philadelphia the last three seasons. Prior to the last two years, he averaged about 7 QB hits per 17 games. If he returns to that form, he’s not going to be worth the $20 million per year price of admission.
7. Allen Lazard, WR, Green Bay Packers
Allen Lazard was undrafted in the class of 2018 out of Iowa State, and quite frankly, that was a mistake by most NFL teams. Lazard was a good player in college, and has proven to be a very solid player at the NFL level.
With his big 6-foot-5 frame, Lazard is a good fit for the modern NFL “big slot” role and can also provide value as an outside receiver, red zone threat, and occasional big-play threat downfield. What he lacks in speed, he makes up for with his length, catch radius, and blocking abilities.
Over the past four years, Lazard’s 17-game averages include:
- 51 receptions
- 677 yards
- 6 TDs
- 13.3 yards per reception
With a market value of almost $13 million per season, some team is shaping up to pay Lazard much more than he’s probably worth at the present moment. The Packers have really maximized his value, landing him as an undrafted free agent and watching him blossom before their very eyes over the last four seasons.
This past year, Lazard was supposed to take on a vastly increased role with the departure of Davante Adams in a blockbuster deal with the Raiders, but that didn’t happen. He received 100 targets but his efficiency dwindled with a career-low catch rate of 60 percent. His drop percentage went from less than two percent in 2021 to six percent in 2022.
Lazard does plenty of things well and he’s a good player, but for a contract worth nearly $35-40 million over the next three years? That’s an investment only a team with more cap space than they know what to do with should make. Luckily for Lazard, a couple of former Packers assistants in New York and Chicago (Nathaniel Hackett, Luke Getsy) could use his services.
6. Dalton Risner, LG, Denver Broncos
There might not be any team in the NFL more desperate for offensive line help than the Denver Broncos, and yet they are poised to let Dalton Risner — who has started for them the last four years at left guard — walk in NFL Free Agency. What does that tell you?
Maybe the Broncos are fools for doing so, and we’ll find out. There’s one thing we know for sure — Dalton Risner is one of the best human beings in the NFL. He was the Broncos’ Walter Payton Man of the Year nominee in 2022 and is well-deserving. He’s always doing great things in the community, adding value to others.
But what does Risner bring to the table as a player? Well, at Kansas State, he started at multiple positions and was pretty outstanding in a number of them. Coming to the NFL, he slotted in perfectly for the Broncos at left guard and he had a good rookie season where it looked like he would be a staple for years to come. But as the years have gone by, Risner has struggled to adequately protect the QB in Denver. Has Risner been the sole reason why that has happened?
Absolutely not. The Broncos have just routinely gotten blown up in the middle of the offensive line, and players like Risner and former third-round pick Lloyd Cushenberry have been weak links. When Risner hits free agency, some needy team is going to pay upwards of $12-14 million per year for his services.
I think the Broncos would gladly let him walk at that price and I also think they’re better off moving forward in another direction.
5. Mike McGlinchey, OT, San Francisco 49ers
It’s hard to keep the “band” together in the NFL with the salary cap the way it is. Teams simply can’t afford to keep the entirety of their roster core intact, and that’s something the league needs to improve in the future. With that being said, it speaks volumes that the San Francisco 49ers, one of the best-run teams in the NFL, are about to let a player they once took in the first round of the NFL Draft walk in free agency, right?
Mike McGlinchey was once taken in the first round out of Notre Dame by the 49ers. He’s been a starter for them ever since and has been a fairly steady player, even if what he brings to the table on a consistent basis is not quite elite-level play.
The tackle position is so valuable in today’s NFL, and you’d think the 49ers would tag McGlinchey in a worst-case-scenario type of move if they felt that McGlinchey was someone they couldn’t live without.
The fact that the 49ers are letting McGlinchey out the door is about as telling as it gets, no?
His market value right now is somewhere in the $14-15 million per year range. There have been rumors that McGlinchey and some of the other right tackles in this market could be seeking upwards of $20 million per year.
A team like the Chicago Bears — with almost $100 million in cap space — could view McGlinchey as a massive upgrade (rightly so) and pay him what he wants rather than what he’s worth.
4. Dalton Schultz, TE, Dallas Cowboys
It’s brutal to be so harsh on some of these guys, but I’m not sure there are many more overrated 2023 NFL free agents than Dallas Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz. Schultz has certainly been productive for the Cowboys over the last handful of years. He’s caught 17 touchdown passes in the last three seasons, and he’s reeled in over 70 percent of his career targets.
He has developed into a really solid player for Dallas, but his market value of $15 million per season is absolutely absurd. The Cowboys franchise tagged Schultz last offseason and he came out and gave them another five touchdowns this past year, but they aren’t tagging him in 2023 and understandably so.
As steady as Schultz has been for Dallas, he’s not a dynamic weapon at the position. He’s a pretty boring player at the position, for lack of a better term. Is he going to make a team better in free agency? Sure. Is he worthy of getting one of the highest annual values of any free agent on the offensive side of the ball?
I don’t know about all that.
Greg Olsen was all over the ruling to wind the clock on a Dalton Schultz catch.
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) January 23, 2023
"When you go out of bounds, you have to be going forwards if you are contacted by the defender... you've gotta turn up and be physical into contact and get that official to stop the clock." 🏈 pic.twitter.com/KmwR4Nh5Pq
Unfortunately, Schultz had a chance to elevate his stock in the eyes of the masses and failed to do so in the most clutch moment of his NFL career.
The Los Angeles Chargers hired Kellen Moore to run their offense in 2023, so perhaps a reunion between he and Dalton Schultz could make some sense since Justin Herbert might need another tight end to get the ball to.
3. Jakobi Meyers, WR, New England Patriots
Have I mentioned that this year’s wide receiver group in NFL Free Agency is bad?
It’s bad.
Jakobi Meyers is probably the top overall player at the position when you consider his last couple of years work in the Patriots’ offense. Heck, it’s probably elevating his value that he’s been able to be as productive as he has been in that Pats offense.
Meyers isn’t a true WR1. He’s a pretty prototypical WR2 type of player whose value is pushed up considerably by the lack of talent around him in this market, and the fact that a player like Christian Kirk did so well to earn the massive payday he got in 2022 from the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Meyers’ pitch in free agency could definitely include a “look what Kirk did for the Jags” in 2022 and he should send Kirk a thank you note if he’s able to land a deal worth close to $18 million per year, or more.
Spotrac only projects Meyers to sign a deal worth $12.5 million per year, but given what we saw Christian Kirk get last offseason, that would be rather surprising. Especially considering this is a thin free agent wide receiver group, and Meyers is only 26 this season.
Perhaps NFL teams will play it safe on someone like Meyers, who didn’t come out of NC State with elite speed traits or anything. Perhaps they will look at his career 11.7 yards per reception and see a tougher road to a return on investment than someone like Christian Kirk, who at least had 17 touchdowns in his first four NFL seasons compared to the eight for Meyers.
One way or another, in this free agent market, Meyers is shaping up to be one of the most overpaid players until proven otherwise.
2. Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith signed a three-year deal worth reportedly $105 million in total money
Alright, so we get to react to this one in real time, because as this post is being written, Geno Smith has agreed to a brand-new deal with the Seattle Seahawks for the next three years. There are already some conflicting reports about the value of this contract, which should come as no shocker if you’ve been following a lot of the very inconsistent reporting from major NFL people in the 2023 offseason so far.
The #Seahawks’ deal with Geno Smith has a base value of $25 million per season (three years, $75 million) with $40 million fully guaranteed at signing, sources say.
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) March 7, 2023
Smith will earn $28 million in the first year of the deal. He has $30 million in incentives.
So, a three-year deal worth $35 million per season was initially reported, but now we’re seeing that the base of this contract is for $25 million per year with those additional $30 million coming as incentives for Geno Smith.
Well, now I’m kind of torn about having him on this list. I think at $35 million per season, you’re about in the right range for what Geno Smith did in the 2022 season which was play out of his mind en route to the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year award. Given the way Geno Smith played last year, I think the Seahawks actually kind of made him bend over backwards here to not get the franchise tag. He got about $8 million more than the franchise tag number in total guarantees. Instead of getting $32 million this year on the tag, he’s getting $28 million in the first year of the deal.
Did Geno Smith just go from projecting as one of the most overpaid players in 2023 NFL Free Agency to being one of the most underpaid? I think so. The Seahawks gave Geno a lot of money, there’s no question. But let’s see what happens now with Daniel Jones and the Giants in the coming days. I just feel like Geno Smith really sold himself short here. He got an incentive-based contract when, if he was willing to do that, why not just force the Seahawks to slap the tag on you and do it again next offseason?
He could have more than doubled his guaranteed cash that way by betting on himself, which is what you’re doing when you’re accepting a three-year deal with $30 million of incentives. I still think Geno Smith projected as one of the most overpaid free agents in the league, we just happened to be wrong about that rather quickly.
1. Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants
I don’t know that any free agent in all of NFL Free Agency in the 2023 offseason — maybe the last couple of offseasons — is shaping up to be overpaid quite like New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones. This is not meant to be a roast of Daniel Jones, but where in the world are these $45 million per year (or more) rumors coming from?
Are they actually coming from Jones’ camp? I guess you can’t fault Jones for shooting his shot. Unfortunately, any deal this guy signs over $20-25 million per year is going to qualify as him being vastly overpaid. Jones went from looking like a first-round NFL Draft bust from 2019-2021 to being a much more competent game manager in 2022. The Giants did have team success, winning a playoff game in the first year of Brian Daboll’s reign as head coach.
Even with the Giants having team success, it doesn’t necessarily mean that Daniel Jones is the primary catalyst of that. He did a much better job of limiting mistakes in 2022 but was his improvement this past season worth $45 million per year? The Giants might need to take the risk of letting Jones hit the QB market and really see his true market value.
What would other teams be willing to pay him? Is Jones just holding the Giants hostage here? He will probably get the franchise tag (the deadline is approaching as I’m writing this piece) which means that he will be one of the most overpaid players in the league in 2023. $32 million-plus for Daniel Jones? 100 percent of that counting against the salary cap?
It’s just a really bad situation for the Giants, who don’t really have great alternatives at their disposal but this is a truly brutal situation for them. Jones seems to think he’s worth much more than he actually is, and trying to get the Giants to pay for the position rather than the player. I hate it.