Trey Lance’s time as a member of the San Francisco 49ers has been turbulent, to say the least. Since being drafted third overall by the 49ers in 2021, Lance has struggled to find his footing in the NFL.
The 22-year-old quarterback entered the NFL with only one year of college experience at a FCS school in North Dakota State. It was already expected that Lance would take some time to develop. There are problems with this situation.
Trey Lance’s injuries, youth have stunted his development early on
For one, Trey Lance has not been able to develop because he has not been able to stay on the field consistently. Some of that is on Kyle Shanahan who continuously ran Lance into harm’s way on quarterback power. That play requires the quarterback to run straight into the line-of-scrimmage, instead of running to the outside where there is more space. That is exactly the play that Lance broke his ankle on last season in week two.
Secondly, the former first-overall pick was entering a situation where he did not necessarily have the luxury of time. When Lance was in the draft process, the 49ers had recently been to a Super Bowl, and the one position that was holding them back from getting over the hump was the quarterback position. Jimmy Garoppolo has proven time and time again that he is neither durable nor good enough to win a Super Bowl. In addition to San Francisco in win-now mode, the team also traded three first-round picks to move up and select Lance.
The amount of pressure for a 21-year-old quarterback with limited experience in college at a lower-level program can be overwhelming. It’s the NFL, so there is going to be little sympathy for Lance, but high expectations paired with little experience is the main reason why this experiment in San Francisco seems to be coming to an end.
Ian Rapoport reported on Wednesday that the 49ers were receiving calls regarding Lance’s availability.
"“The 49ers have received inquiries from several teams looking into a potential trade for former No. 3 pick quarterback Trey Lance,” Rapoport said. “The conversations have been the result of San Francisco fielding the calls, not making them, with teams aware that Brock Purdy is likely the future starter.”"
With that being said, there are a number of teams that could be great solutions for Lance and his future.
Trey Lance trade option no. 1: Minnesota Vikings
This is one of the most obvious spots because it has been reported the Vikings are potentially interested in Lance.
According to Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk, the 49ers and Vikings had talks revolving around a trade for Lance.
"“At this year’s Scouting Combine, there were rumors of a potential Kirk Cousins trade from Minnesota to San Francisco,” Florio said. “Those rumors may have come from the reality that the 49ers and Vikings had discussions about another quarterback. Per league source, the two teams talked about Trey Lance.”"
Cousins, 35, is under contract through 2023, and it is possible that the Vikings do not bring Cousins back in 2024. The Vikings and Cousins have seemingly hit a wall, as the quarterback has struggled in big spots, such as the playoffs.
It also looks like the Vikings are not necessarily heading into a rebuild, but more of a re-tool season. Minnesota lost Adam Thielen in free agency, and now Dalvin Cook could be a cap casualty. Releasing Cook would save the Vikings $9 million in cap space. By no means are the Vikings looking to lose or anything like that, but it may be time to hit the reset button at the quarterback position.
As mentioned earlier, Lance is still only 22 years old and still possesses the potential to be a very good quarterback in the NFL. We simply do not have enough game film to determine whether or not Lance can be a starting quarterback in the NFL.
One problem in this scenario is the Vikings would take a cap hit of $38 million if they trade Cousins before June 1. However, we have seen examples of teams eating a detrimental amount of dead cap by trading quarterbacks on expensive contracts. The Eagles dealt with a $33.8 million dead cap hit when they traded Carson Wentz to the Colts. The Rams dealt with a $22.2 million dead cap hit by trading Jared Goff to the Lions. Both teams have represented the NFC in the Super Bowl in the last two years. It would not be the end of the world for the Vikings.
As for Lance, he would be heading into a situation where he can contend, while Justin Jefferson is a great go-to option for a young quarterback. Head Coach Kevin O’Connell is a smart, young offensive mind that can enhance Lance’s development in a new environment.
Trey Lance trade option no.2: Houston Texans
One team that makes a ton of sense is the Texans. Houston has the second overall pick in the upcoming draft but is non-committal about selecting a quarterback according to Peter Schrager.
"“I’m hearing the Texans are not falling in love with CJ Stroud and I don’t think they are going to take a quarterback for the sake of it,” Schrager said. “There’s also something to that fact that Stroud is represented by the same agent who represents Deshaun Watson.”"
It has been rumored that the Texans are enamored by pass rusher Will Anderson, and that could very well be the direction the Texans go.
If the Texans do indeed go that route, trading a mid-round pick for Lance makes a lot of sense. Texans’ Head Coach DeMeco Ryans was formerly the defensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers since 2021. He has been in the same building as Lance and went up against the quarterback in practice and training camp for multiple seasons.
In addition, because the Texans have two picks inside the top 12, this would allow Houston to grab the best player available, while filling the need at the quarterback position.
For the sake of the argument, let’s say the Texans grab Anderson at two, Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 12, and then trade a third- or fourth-round pick for Lance. It would allow Lance to step in with less pressure, as he will enter a situation where the team is not looking to win right away. It would also give the Texans the ability to build a stronger roster, and not sacrifice a first-round pick on an unknown commodity at the quarterback position. Yes, Lance, at this point is an unknown, but the risk is much lower than whiffing on a quarterback at second overall.
It makes too much sense, especially if the Texans decide to pass up on a quarterback in the first round.
Trey Lance trade option no. 3: Tennessee Titans
Familiarity is the main factor in this landing spot for Lance. Tennessee’s general manager has ties with Lance going back to his rookie season. Ran Carthon, who was named the Titans’ General Manager in January, was the director of pro personnel with the 49ers. He was in the position when the 49ers drafted Lance in 2021.
Tennessee holds the 11th overall pick in the upcoming draft, and the quarterback could be in discussion for the Titans.
Ryan Tannehill will be 35 years old entering the season, and his production is not meeting the value of his price tag. Tannehill carries a $36 million cap hit in 2023, but the Titans can save $17.8 million by moving off Tannehill before June 1.
Instead of trading a boatload to move into the top five for a quarterback, Tennessee should consider using cheaper draft compensation on Lance, who is around the age of the incoming quarterbacks in the draft.
The Titans have other needs outside of quarterback, and trading multiple picks to move up would leave Tennessee with fewer draft picks that they desperately need in the next few years.
Lance is a low-risk, high-reward proposition that could allow Tennessee to address other needs on the roster with early-round selections.
Trey Lance destination no. 4: Indianapolis Colts
This is a wild-card spot for Lance, and it greatly depends on how the first few picks in the draft play out.
If three quarterbacks come off the board before the Colts’ selection at four, and Indianapolis does not love the quarterback left, then I could see them considering other options.
One of those options could be acquiring Lance for a mid-round pick.
The Colts have traded for or signed multiple quarterbacks in the last few years and could be looking to draft and develop their own guy. However, trading for Lance would be much different.
Unlike the other quarterbacks, Lance is not fully developed and has only started four games in his NFL career. Indianapolis did not draft Lance, but the team will be given the opportunity of developing a player that is in his early 20s.
In addition, Head Coach Shane Steichen dealt with a similar situation when he coached Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia. Before this past season, there were many questions about whether or not Hurts could be a franchise quarterback. Hurts had his best season as a pro, earning a five-year, $255 million extension earlier this week.
Indianapolis is another team that has more needs outside of quarterback on its roster. The Colts may choose to go best player available instead of reaching for a quarterback like Will Levis. By trading a later pick for Lance, the Colts could also consider trading down and accumulating more draft picks to help build the roster.
Lance is similarly built like Hurts, and Steichen had great success with Hurts’ playstyle. Steichen could unlock Lance’s full potential on a team that is desperate to find its next franchise quarterback.