Fantasy Football: Two things top second-year receivers have in common

The 2023 NFL Draft will be starting on April 27th. Incoming rookie wide receivers Zay Flowers, Puka Nacua, Tank Dell, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Charlie Jones, Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnson, and Jonathan Mingo have been tested, respectively.

As more scouting and breakdowns are performed, more experts have proclaimed this draft class isn’t as top-heavy or deep at the wide receiver position as years before. In this 2023 Mock Draft, five wide receivers are mocked in the 1st round, but only one in the top half of the draft. In the 2022 NFL Draft, six wide receivers were drafted in the 1st round, and five of those six were drafted in the top half of the draft. All things considered, second-year wide receivers are being prioritized over rookies in dynasty football leagues. Three of them have two things in common and as a result, they should be on your radar.

These three wide receivers are Garrett Wilson (Jets), Chris Olave (Saints), and Christian Watson (Packers). All three impressed as rookies in 2022. Garrett Wilson won AP 2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Chris Olave and Christian Watson both had 3 games with over 100 receiving yards. In one game, Chris Olave had 147 yards, which was his season-long best performance. In a four-game stretch, Christian Watson had 27 targets, 15 receptions, 323 yards, and 7 touchdowns, which made him a top-10 fantasy football wide receiver in weeks 10-13. This is what they have in common as second-year wide receivers in 2023.

Fantasy Football: Commonalities among star second-year WRs

1. All 3 wide receivers are top-25 in 2023 WR Keeper and Dynasty rankings

According to FantasyPros, there are six second-year wide receivers ranked in the top-25 in fantasy football dynasty and keeper rankings. The rankings and respective wide receiver go as follows:

6. Garrett Wilson, Jets

11. Chris Olave, Saints

14. Drake London, Falcons

21. Christian Watson, Packers

22. Treylon Burks, Titans

23. Jameson Williams, Lions

While these rankings will fluctuate some between now and the start of the season, these players have only risen in rankings. Considering Wilson and Olave both finished as WR2s (top-24) in fantasy football as rookies, their becoming WR1s (top-12) in a couple of seasons is highly likely. Especially with WR1s such as Davante Adams (Raiders), Tyreek Hill (Dolphins), and Stefon Diggs (Bills) are 29+ years old. Considering Watson finished as a WR3 (top-36) as a rookie, his becoming a WR1 in a couple of seasons is highly likely. Especially if he can continue to score two or three touchdowns in individual games.

2. All 3 wide receivers will have different starting quarterbacks in 2023

Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Christian Watson will have different starting quarterbacks throwing to them in 2023. Although Christian Watson had Jordan Love throw to him in a game in 2022 (see Christian Watson, Jordan Love), he was not the starting quarterback that season or that game. Meanwhile, in 2022, Drake London played in four games with Desmond Ridder, Treylon Burks played in 8 games with Ryan Tannehill, and Jameson Williams played in six games with Jared Goff. Although the starting quarterback of their respective teams could change, nothing is imminent. If something changes, expect another article to address the new QB/second-year WR combo.

One of the first quarterback dominos to fall this off-season was Derek Carr’s signing with the Saints. Another quarterback domino that hasn’t fallen quite yet, but should be any day now, is Aaron Rodgers being traded to the Jets. When he does, Jordan Love will have his first opportunity to be the starting quarterback of the Packers. That includes a full off-season to prepare as a starter with their respective receiving groups. All three have situations that differ greatly from their situation in 2022. The situations also differ from one another.

Garrett Wilson, Aaron Rodgers

Garrett Wilson caught passes from Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Chris Streveler in 2022. Although he individually had a great season, the Jets finished 7-10 and missed the playoffs. With a top defense and young offensive playmakers in Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, the Jets feel as though they are just a veteran quarterback away from making a deep playoff run. Many things have transpired with Aaron Rodgers, the Packers, and the Jets this off-season, but at this point, there is still mutual interest from all.

If and when Aaron Rodgers is traded to the Jets, Garrett Wilson will be the biggest winner of these three. Aaron Rodgers has a strong history of supporting prolific fantasy football wide receivers. With Donald Driver and Greg Jennings prior to 2013, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, and DaVante Adams from 2013 to 2021. You can view a breakdown of Aaron Rodgers’ fantasy football finishes and his top wide receivers’ fantasy football finishes, per season (minimum 12 games).

Despite the additions of Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman and the departure of Elijah Moore, Wilson is expected to be the number 1 target for the Jets and presumably for Aaron Rodgers in 2023. He will command a high percentage target share and avoid tackles at a high level as he did in 2022 (24.9%, 21st in NFL; 10 BRKTKL, tied for 2nd in NFL). His ADOT (average depth of target), catch rates, and touchdowns should increase with a veteran quarterback passing to him.

Chris Olave, Derek Carr

Since Drew Brees retired after the 2020 season, the Saints have been trying to find their next franchise quarterback. Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, and Andy Dalton are significant quarterbacks that have started games. Winston has played well but has not stayed healthy. Hill has reverted back to tight end/offensive weapon. Dalton proved he could be a game manager, but nothing more. All things considered, signed Derek Carr sometime after he was released by the Raiders.

With Derek Carr now expected to be the Saints’ starting quarterback for the foreseeable future, Chris Olave is the second biggest winner of these three. Derek Carr has a history of supporting productive fantasy football wide receivers. With Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper, Hunter Renfrow, and Davante Adams from 2015 to 2022. You can view a breakdown of Derek Carr’s fantasy football finishes and his top wide receivers’ fantasy football finishes, per season (minimum 12 games). 

Outside of the pass-catching Alvin Kamara, re-structured wide receiver Michael Thomas, and the re-signed tight end Juwan Johnson, Chris Olave doesn’t have much competition for targets in 2023 on the roster at this time. He already had a high target share in 2022 (26.7%, 16th in NFL), along with a high ADOT (14, 9th in NFL). So long as the Saints’ offense improves, Chris Olave should show positive regression in these categories and/or others e.g. touchdowns.

Christian Watson, Jordan Love

Of these three now second-year wide receivers, Christian Watson played with the best quarterback in 2022 in Aaron Rodgers. If and when Rodgers is traded to the Jets, Watson will be playing with the most questionable quarterback of the three wide receivers in 2023. Jordan Love is a former No. 26 pick, but and has been the Packers’ backup quarterback for three seasons. He got to sit behind a future Hall-of-Famer and is familiar with the offense, but there are still some question marks.

While I don’t have a spreadsheet to show Jordan Love’s fantasy football finishes and his top wide receivers’ fantasy football finishes like the others, I have a highlight of them playing together in a game, unlike the others:

The Packers wide receiver room struggled as a whole at the beginning of 2022. Amongst the silver linings and later developments: Allen Lazard was consistent, and Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs showed flashes. Lazard signed with the Jets in free agency, so Christian Watson is atop the wide receiver room at this time. Watson showed playmaking ability in 2022, so Love could rely on him, but there’s no guarantee Love can produce for him. Nonetheless, Watson scored 7 receiving touchdowns (tied for 12th in NFL (tied for 1st amongst rookies)), 9 total touchdowns (tied for 4th in NFL, and 13.8 ADOT (12th in NFL).