It’s certainly not the best time of year to be negative after every team is coming off of free agency and the 2023 NFL Draft, but we gotta be real with some of you here. We know the NFL is built for parity to reign supreme, and the 2023 season should not be expected to be any different.
In the 2021-22 season, there were seven new NFL playoff teams compared to the 2020-21 season. In The 2022-23 season, there were once again seven teams that made it that did not the year prior:
7 new NFL playoff teams in 2022-23
- Seattle Seahawks
- Minnesota Vikings
- New York Giants
- Baltimore Ravens
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Miami Dolphins
Now, that’s not to say that seven teams will once again enter the playoff picture again. Some of these teams could further establish themselves in either conference. But recent history and 14 total spots up for grabs would tell us that there’s a pretty good chance of 5-7 new teams entering the postseason in 2023, which means 5-7 teams that made it last year are going to miss out.
But who?
6 NFL teams that are not returning to the playoffs in 2023-24
6. Miami Dolphins
The 49ers were the only team on my list from last season that I actually got wrong. I’m not going to make that mistake again in 2023, although I think if you want to pick an honorable mention for this list, it’s got to be the 49ers with their question marks at QB and the loss of defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans.
At any rate, I’m taking the Miami Dolphins in the 6th slot here, although Dolphins fans should take comfort in knowing I have very little conviction in this. I think Miami made arguably the biggest move of the 2023 offseason by hiring Vic Fangio as their next head coach. Does that mean they are automatically going back to the playoffs? No, but I think it gives them a pretty darn good chance, especially after also trading for Jalen Ramsey.
The key here, and the primary issue, is the season-long status of Tua Tagovailoa. You literally have this guy learning how to fall in the 2023 offseason. It’s not mean to be a joke or to make light of his head injuries, but that fact alone doesn’t give me the most confidence that we’re going to see Tua for a full 17-game slate in 2023.
If that’s the case, we expect Mike White to lead the Dolphins to the playoffs in a division that now has Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, and Bill Belichick?
I’m not so sure.
NFL team not returning to the playoffs in 2023: Buccaneers
Let’s just be real here — this is the softest of soft-toss. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers — who are they kidding? They’re not making the playoffs this coming season barring something completely unexpected.
Right?
The Bucs have taken on water all offseason, starting with the substantial hole in the ship’s very foundation: The retirement of Tom Brady. The retirement of Brady set off a chain reaction which included cutting left tackle Donovan Smith, trading guard Shaq Mason, and plenty more.
This Bucs team had a losing record in 2022 and only managed to make it to the playoffs because of the manner in which they got to those eight victories, although just about any other NFC South team would have been more interesting in the postseason a year ago.
We’ll see how much of a “competition” it is this coming offseason between Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask. The former number one overall pick up against the former second-rounder out of Florida isn’t exactly riveting from a general NFL fan base perspective, but it’s going to be interesting to see what Mayfield can do after a little “rehab” stint in Sean McVay’s offense late last season.
New offensive coordinator Dave Canales brings a pretty similar brand of offense to Tampa, but we’ll have to wait and see just how beneficial it is for Mayfield. This might be Mayfield’s last real shot to put it together as an NFL starter before he becomes a career backup, and he’s got some weapons at his disposal, to be certain.
NFL team not returning to the playoffs in 2023: Chargers
Alright, we’ve done some picking on the NFC, let’s move over to the AFC for a moment. The Los Angeles Chargers are coming off of a monumentally disappointing finish to last season despite actually being one of the league’s “new” playoff teams in 2022. Justin Herbert and the boys finally found their way into the postseason. They not only made it in, but they mounted a massive first-half lead over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wild Card round.
That lead disappeared as quickly as it appeared in the first place, and the Chargers blew a 27-0 playoff lead. People make fun of the Atlanta Falcons so much because 28-3 happened in the Super Bowl, but 27-0 is one of the most embarrassing leads to ever be blown in NFL playoff history. Then you had Joey Bosa blaming the officials while simultaneously letting his emotions cost his team.
Following that historic loss, most people didn’t think Brandon Staley was going to make it through the night. The photoshop work had already been done to make Sean Payton the Chargers’ next head coach by many fans on Twitter, but the Chargers stuck with Staley.
They stuck with Staley and hired Kellen Moore to be their next offensive coordinator.
This is a team that has Justin Herbert leading the way at quarterback, but it’s possible that in the first four years of Herbert’s NFL career, the Chargers will have only made the playoffs one time. And for that reason, I think Brandon Staley will get canned at the end of the year.
If we’ve got to replace six total playoff teams, a few have to come from the AFC, right? I think the Chargers, out of any team in the AFC, have the worst coach. For that reason, I’m taking them to be the first AFC team getting replaced.
NFL team not returning to the playoffs in 2023: Vikings
Alright, back to the NFC.
Sorry, Vikings fans. Your team is not going back to the playoffs in 2023. The Vikings, simply and honestly put, were the luckiest team in the entire NFL in 2022. And yes, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.
The Vikings were a staggering 11-0 in one-score games throughout the 2022 season, virtually unprecedented success in such games. To even have that many one-score games throughout the course of a regular season is bizarre, but to win them all? Well, there’s no question that Kevin O’Connell was a coach of the year candidate. How can you not be when nobody can figure out how your team keeps pulling off these cardiac comebacks?
The Vikings are not a bad team, nor are they poorly constructed overall or anything. I think they are a solid 8-9 win team, but are they a playoff team? Well, with Aaron Rodgers out of the picture in the NFC North, the path is certainly a bit clearer. The NFC North has got to be one of the most ‘winnable’ divisions in the league, and the Vikings should be proud of winning 13 games a season ago.
But the team’s playoff loss at home to the Giants last season can serve as a bit of a sign of things to come in 2023: A regression to the mean. I mentioned that the Vikings were 11-0 in one-score games last season. Well, that was during the regular season. The only one-score game they lost in 2022 happened to be that playoff game against the Giants, a game in which the Vikings surrendered a staggering 28 first downs to the Giants and over 430 yards of total offense.
The Vikings scored 424 points last year and gave up 427. Their defense surrendered over 6,600 yards of total offense, 31st in the NFL.
Again, this team was luckier than it was good in 2023.
NFL team that won’t return to the playoffs in 2023: Seahawks
This one is tough. I don’t want to say it. I want to continue to see Geno Smith not writing back to those who had written him off.
Maybe he will do just that.
The Seattle Seahawks were a team that, in 2022, I think it’s safe to say “overachieved”. People thought this team was in dire straits after the Russell Wilson trade, given the fact they were having a competition last year in training camp between Drew Lock and Geno Smith for the starting job. And based on what we had seen in preseason play and what people were saying at Seahawks camp, it sounded like Lock may have been on his way to earning the job, and then this happened…
20 min apart pic.twitter.com/ZFVKY4yHNk
— Sayre Bedinger (@SayreBedinger) August 17, 2022
Seattle rolled with Geno Smith, never looked back, and they won quite a few games with Smith leading the charge. The team galvanized around the NFL comeback player of the year. A hot start to the 2022 season had the Seahawks sitting nicely with a 6-3 record. Over the final nine games of the season, including a playoff matchup against the 49ers, the Seahawks went 3-6.
Their three wins:
- 27-23 @ Rams
- 23-6 vs. Jets
- 19-16 (OT) vs. Rams
Two of those three wins in a two-month span came against the hapless and very injured Rams. One came against Mike White, Ty Johnson, and the Jets.
Not to diminish what the Seahawks did all throughout the season, but the second half of last season showed the team that many thought we were going to see all year. Did they get better this offseason? I would say so, but if this team only wins 7 or 8 games, don’t be shocked.
NFL team that’s not returning to the playoffs in 2023: Giants
Well, we really are taking our shots at the NFC this offseason, now, aren’t we?
The New York Giants are the sixth and final team to be put on blast here as a team not returning to the playoffs in 2023. Admittedly, it’s a pretty heavy lean to say four NFC teams will be swapped as compared to just two teams in the AFC, but it’s not impossible. Barring major injuries, does anyone see the top four teams in the AFC changing all that much in 2023 (division winners, anyway)?
I think when you look at the New York Giants, you are looking at one of a handful of teams that ended up overachieving significantly in the 2022 season. This is a team that, as I put together my weekly NFL picks and predictions last season, became the bane of my existence. Every week, I thought the Giants were going to come back to earth.
And every week, they proved me wrong. I would then catch the G-men fever, pick them for a week, and they would lose. I think I incorrectly predicted just about every Giants game last season, but that’s neither here nor there.
Actually, you know what, maybe Giants fans should take their team’s inclusion on this list as a good sign, in that case.
I just don’t think the Giants are going to find that source of good luck again in 2023 as we saw last season. The NFC East is loaded with the Cowboys and Eagles on top. I think the best the Giants can hope for is a 3rd place finish and to land that second Wild Card spot, and there’s just frankly going to be more competition there with improvement from NFC South teams as well as the rest of the teams around the NFC.
Is it possible the Giants will be the 6th or 7th team in the NFC again this year? Sure, anything is possible, but with Daniel Jones under center, I’m just not confident in this team.