With NFL organized team activities (OTAs) currently underway and mandatory minicamp only a couple of weeks away, excitement for the 2023 season is rapidly growing. All 32 teams have been posting pictures and videos on social media for fans to see and scout. With daily content from OTAs, it’s easy to get caught up in player hype from teammates, coaches, journalists, analysts, etc. It’s especially easy to get caught up in player hype if you play fantasy football and are looking for undervalued and sleeper RBs.
Fantasy football drafts will be taking place all summer long. While it may feel early for redraft or best ball drafts, it’s never too early to start researching players, average draft positions, strategies, etc. I’m here to get the ball rolling, starting with running backs. These undervalued running backs are being drafted at their floor in fantasy football drafts while they have a higher ceiling. Meanwhile, these sleeper running backs are being drafted at the end of drafts, or going undrafted, when they’re more than worthy of a roster spot. These players, their current PPR positional rank, and their current PPR average draft position will be provided below.
Undervalued, sleeper running backs for fantasy football in 2023
Undervalued RBs
1. Joe Mixon, Bengals
Positional rank: RB19
Average draft position: 46
Disclaimer: Joe Mixon was recharged with misdemeanor aggravated menacing. He pleaded not guilty in April. He has not been cut and is not facing league suspension at this time.
Joe Mixon was a sneaky winner of free agency and the NFL Draft. While there are still some notable free agents like Ezekiel Elliott, Kareem Hunt, and Leonard Fournette available, it seems unlikely that any of them will sign with the Bengals. Mixon has controversy swirling around him due to his facing legal trouble this offseason, and still, no additional running back was signed. The Bengals did draft former Illinois running back Chase Brown in the 5th round, but the day 3 draft capital is no indication he will supersede Mixon on the depth chart this season.
Joe Mixon is arguably on the best offense of any running back on this list. The Bengals were top-10 in total yards and offensive points per game in 2022. The Bengals are trotting out the same playmakers in 2023 with an improved offensive line. As the featured back, Mixon finished as RB10 in PPR formats in 2022. His target and touchdown volume helped him average 16 points per game. All signs point to Mixon finishing top-10 or top-15 for what will be the 5th time in his 7th season. He is great value at RB19 and the end of the 3rd or beginning of the 4th round.
Miles Sanders, Panthers
Positional rank: RB20
Average draft position: 52
After Miles Sanders had a career season and finished top-5 in rushing yards in 2022, the Eagles opted to not bring him back. Money was likely the motivating factor, as the No. 1 rushing yards leader Josh Jacobs and the No. 4 rushing yards leader Saquon Barkley both received the franchise tag, rather than signing long-term guaranteed deals. Instead, Sanders signed with the Panthers in the offseason, signing a 4 year, $25.4 million dollar contract.
This was the largest running back contract for a running back joining a new team in 2023, and amongst one of the highest contracts for the same criteria in the past 5 seasons, which is a good indicator that Sanders will be heavily featured. Sanders joins veteran playmakers Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, and Hayden Hurst as new additions to the Panthers. The Panthers’ biggest offseason addition, though, is the No. 1 overall pick, quarterback Bryce Young.
The Panthers were top-10 in rushing yards and top-12 in rushing attempts in 2022, and will likely finish in the top half again with a rookie play-caller at the helm. Being on the team that was No. 5 in rushing yards and No. 3 in rushing attempts helped Sanders finish as RB15 in PPR formats. He finished even higher in Half-PPR formats, and top-10 in Non-PPR formats. Sanders is now sharing the backfield with Chuba Hubbard and Raheem Blackshear, but they will likely serve as the pass-catching backs. Sanders has finished top-15 in his two full seasons, and he is being drafted as RB20 in the 4th or 5th round. Great value.
James Conner, Cardinals
Positional rank: RB25
Average draft position: 66
Joe Mixon figures to be on arguably the best offense of any running back on this list, while James Conner figures to be on arguably the worst offense, and worse team, of any running back on this list. Of course, that is no fault of his own. Starting quarterback Kyler Murray will not be available for the beginning of the season, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins was just cut, edge rusher JJ Watt retired at the end of the season, and the list goes on.
The team has many holes and few bright spots, but amongst the bright spots is Conner. He is the unquestioned featured back on the Cardinals and has the talent to be the unquestioned featured back on other NFL teams. While there are no trade rumors involving Conner at the moment, I wouldn’t rule out him being dealt before the trade deadline if the Cardinals are losing and want to continue tanking.
As it stands, though, Conner’s current team will likely struggle to pass and will be forced to commit to the run. When healthy, Conner is capable of being a workhorse. He is a physical runner who has a nose for the end zone. He is also a capable pass catcher who can help move the chains. While he has missed games in all six of his seasons, he’s never missed more than 10. When playing, he’s always effective. He has two top-10 PPR fantasy football finishes, and was top-10 in points per game in 2022, averaging 15.3 FPTS. Being drafted as RB25 in the 5th or 6th round, Conner is the best value on this list.
Sleeper RBs for fantasy football in 2023
Alexander Mattison, Vikings
Positional rank: RB33
Average draft position: 93
Many thought free agent running back Alexander Mattison would leave the Vikings in the offseason and sign somewhere he’d have a clearer path to being a starting running back. Instead, he returned to the Vikings, signing a two-year, $6.35 million contract. Hindsight is 20/20, but it appears Mattison has a chance to start, after all. The Vikings are rumored to either trade or cut current starting running back Dalvin Cook before the 2023 season starts. In his last 5 starts in the past 2 seasons, Mattison had 2 games with over 100 yards rushing and 3 games with a rushing touchdown.
Currently being drafted as RB33 in the 7th, 8th, or 9th round, Mattison’s draft stock will immediately rise if and when Cook is on a new team. However, he will still be amongst the undervalued and sleeper RBs. Although his ranking and average draft position will rise, it won’t rise above Cook’s, who finished as RB11 as the starting running back of the Vikings in 2022. He’s still a discounted starting NFL running back and one of the top sleeper RBs.
Jerome Ford, Browns
Positional rank: RB67
Average draft position: 200
Jerome Ford finds himself in a prime position in 2023. The 2022 5th-round pick was buried on the Browns’ depth chart and had limited opportunities in his rookie season, but the team let Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson walk in free agency. Ford is now expected to step up and be the No. 2 running back on the depth chart and could provide change-of-pace to No. 1 running back Nick Chubb. Ford has the floor of being a handcuff, and the ceiling of being a weekly flex play on a new pass-first Browns team.
Currently being drafted as RB67 in rounds 16-20, Ford is currently only being drafted in leagues with many teams or many roster spots. He is going undrafted in most leagues, though. He is worth a flier in the last round in drafts, or a waiver wire claim in leagues that have completed their draft already. He will emerge as one of the top sleeper RBs. He’s a must draft for anyone who drafts Chubb.
Keaontay Ingram, Cardinals
Positional rank: RB83
Average draft position: 286
Fellow Cardinals running back James Conner was already mentioned earlier in this article. He has struggled with injuries in the past, which has benefited the No. 2 running backs on the Steelers and Cardinals in seasons prior. Keaontay Ingram is currently in position to benefit if Conner were to miss anytime. The 2022 5th-round pick had limited opportunities in his rookie season but showed a flash on his touchdown play in the regular season. Ingram has the floor of starting 1-2 games and the ceiling of starting 4-6+ games as a handcuff.
Currently being drafted as RB83 in rounds 23-28, Ingram is currently only being drafted in leagues with many teams or many roster spots. He is going undrafted in most leagues, though. He is worth a flier in the last round in drafts, or a waiver wire claim in leagues that have completed their draft already. He will also emerge as one of the top sleeper RBs. He’s a must-draft for anyone who drafts Conner.
Malik Davis, Cowboys
Positional rank: RB87
Average draft position: 301
The Cowboys backfield changed midway through the 2022 season as Tony Pollard leapfrogged Ezekiel Elliott as the lead back. In 2023 it changed in a big way, as Elliott was designated a post-June 1 cut. Now, Pollard is the unquestioned lead back. The only other running back currently on the roster that was also on the roster in 2022 is Malik Davis.
The 2022 UDFA earned his roster spot on the Cowboys’ 53-man roster and served as their No. 3 running back. He showed flashes when the Cowboys were up late, earning more opportunities than either Jerome Ford or Keaontay Ingram. He will have to work on pass protection and beat competition veteran Ronald Jones and 2023 6th round pick Deuce Vaughn, but has a chance to be the No. 2 back behind Pollard, who is recovering from a leg injury.
Currently being drafted as RB87 in rounds 25-30, Davis is currently only being drafted in leagues with many teams or many roster spots. He is going undrafted in most leagues, though. He is worth a flier in the last round in drafts, or a waiver wire claim in leagues that have completed their draft already. He is one of my personal favorite sleeper RBs. I even like him better than fellow Cowboys running back Ronald Jones, who is being drafted before him. (See below)
BONUS:
Ronald Jones, Cowboys
Positional rank: RB85
Average draft position: 282