Every season 32 teams fight to finish at the top of their division to reach the postseason and possibly the Super Bowl, the NFL’s grandest stage. Only eight teams are so fortunate to finish first in their respective divisions and receive their “T-Shirt and Hat” (divisional championship gear).
In 2022 we completed the same predictions and were successful in picking five of the eight divisional winners.
Let’s review the eight teams that we believe are going to take their respective thrones in their divisions in 2023.
2023 NFL predictions: Who is winning each division in 2023?
AFC West winner: Kansas City Chiefs
Despite picking the Kansas City Chiefs as one of the teams with the worst wide receiver groups in 2023 they still finish as the favorite to win the AFC West. As long as Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce are on the field it is hard to bet against the Chiefs.
It doesn’t hurt that they are coming off a thrilling Super Bowl win, their second in four seasons, and finished the 2022 season with the best win-loss record in the AFC at 14-3. Within the AFC West, the Chiefs came out on top with only three regular season losses. The second team behind the Chiefs in the West was the Los Angeles Chargers who finished the season with a 10-7 record. It’s worth noting that the Chiefs did not lose a single game to an AFC West opponent but swept all three of their divisional rivals.
The Raiders (6-11) and Broncos (5-12) were not even close to competing for the AFC West title and they won’t be in 2023 either. The Chargers have a chance but as we all know, the Chargers are “gonna Charger” at some point and lose a crucial game they should have won. The Chiefs are going to take the #1 spot again in 2023 and will cruise into the postseason per usual.
NFC West winner: Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks were supposed to be jettisoned into several years of mediocrity after trading away Russell Wilson and losing the core of their once-famous defensive unit. Everyone was surprised in 2022 — myself included — when the Seahawks beat the Denver Broncos in Week 1 with Geno Smith at the helm.
The Seahawks ended up winning eight more games and finished 9-8 in the NFC West, behind the San Francisco 49ers who notched an impressive 13-4 campaign. The Seahawks went 4-2 in the division behind the aforementioned 49ers who, similar to the Chiefs, went undefeated in the division.
The reason the Seahawks take the edge in 2023 is not only because Geno Smith has found a resurgence in Seattle, or because the Seahawks had another excellent draft getting two “blue chip” starters (Witherspoon, Smith-Njigba) on Day 1, but because the San Francisco 49ers are a huge question mark yet again. The 49ers defense, absent their coordinator Demeco Ryans, will still be competitive but we have no clue who is leading the offense at the quarterback position.
Whether it’s Sam Darnold, Trey Lance, or Brock Purdy it’s very possible the Seahawks will still be the team to beat in the NFC West. Head coach Pete Carroll may be nearing his last season but he will not be going down without a fight. I’m taking the 12s in the NFC West.
AFC North winner: Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals are getting on pace with the Kansas City Chiefs and have made it to the AFC Championship two years in a row, with one Super Bowl appearance (loss). The Kansas City Chiefs have made it to the conference championship five years in a row with three Super Bowl appearances (2 wins).
The Bengals, also similar to the Chiefs, are doing their best to keep their core players intact in order to stay competitive and so far they are succeeding. The Bengals yielded the third-best regular season record in the AFC in 2022 going 12-4 and winning the AFC North handily.
The Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Cleveland Browns have all made improvements to their rosters, most of all being the Ravens. The Ravens were second in the NFC North going 10-7 but without Lamar Jackson, they did not have much of a chance. If this prediction is wrong it should be the Ravens taking the top spot, but I’m not comfortable betting against “Joe Cool” and his safety blanket; receiver Jamarr Chase.
The Bengals will be a contender once again taking the NFC North will become the norm for them, just like the AFC West title is for the Chiefs.
NFC North winner: Detroit Lions
It’s finally Dan Campbell’s time to shine. And the rest of the Detroit Lions.
This team is special and head coach Dan Campbell and general manager Brad Holmes have been amassing this roster to take over the NFC North. This may finally be the year they do it. The Lions finished second in the division in 2022 with a record of 9-8, trailing the Minnesota Vikings who went 13-4.
What is worth noting is that the Lions had the best inter-divisional record in the NFC North going 5-1, dropping a single game to the Vikings in September. The Lions swept the Packers and Bears and it would not be a shock to see them do it again. The Packers are without Aaron Rodgers (which didn’t seem to matter last year) and the Vikings have holes on both sides of the ball. The Bears unfortunately aren’t in the conversation this season either.
The Lions aren’t without their issues dealing with the absence of their outside threat at receiver, Jameson Williams, who is suspended for six games. This unit is tough and they were without Williams for a portion of last season as well due to injury. One of the main selling points for the Lions is the gutsy performance they showed in their final game against the Packers last season. The Packers had to win to get into the playoffs and the Lions were already eliminated from contention. Campbell and crew decided they weren’t going to hand the postseason to the Packers and instead dug deep and eliminated the Packers with a 20-16 win. It would be Rodgers’s last game as a Green Bay Packer.
The Lions are tough, determined, and they’ve been slowly but surely amassing a quality roster over the last couple of seasons. I think it would be a disappointment to all NFL fans if we were wrong about the Lions becoming the new “Kings of the North” in 2023.
Fun fact: The Lions haven’t won the NFC North since 1993. 30 years.
AFC East winner: Buffalo Bills
The hype last season surrounded the competitiveness of the AFC West (which turned out to be overinflated) but 2023 is the year of the AFC East. The Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and New York Jets all have the ability to win double-digit games in 2023. The New England Patriots are always in contention but there are lingering issues with the franchise that could spell trouble down the road.
While there were some offseason grumblings with star receiver Stefon Diggs, all appears well in Buffalo currently. Offseason rumors have declared this is head coach Sean McDermott’s last chance in Buffalo. McDermott has been incredibly successful in his tenure going 62-35, making him the most successful coach in Bills history. The issue could be despite making the playoffs five times, their playoff record is 4-5 with no Super Bowl appearances.
The Bills didn’t have an outrageous draft or free agency this offseason but made calculated moves and let go of certain players that may have desired above-average contracts. The Bills, like the Chiefs and Bengals, are after long-term sustained success but need to breach past their recent playoff limitations.
The Bills finished the 2022 season with a 13-4 record, second-best in the AFC. The next closest divisional rival was the Dolphins going 9-8. The Bills, Dolphins, and Jets all have strong playmakers on both sides of the ball, however, the Bills and Jets currently have the edge at quarterback. The Dolphins by far have the roster with the highest ceiling however a lot of it depends on the health and durability of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
The Bills are too dominant to bet against, especially with their do-it-all quarterback Josh Allen taking snaps under center. Unless the defense regresses and Josh Allen doesn’t fix his accuracy issues from the second half of last season it seems unlikely that the Bills are dethroned.
NFC East winner: Philadelphia Eagles
The Super Bowl hangover is a real occurrence in the NFL, but it would be a shock if the Philadelphia Eagles fell victim to it. The Eagles kept their veteran core intact with leaders such as Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox after losing the Super Bowl to the Chiefs as heavy favorites in the bout. Both of those players were on the roster when the Eagles won the Big Game in 2018.
In the offseason the Eagles once again “won the draft” with general manager Howie Roseman adding more playmakers to boost his roster. The assumption was that the Eagles went for broke in 2022 and after losing the Super Bowl they would have to back off and slowly fight back to relevancy. The Eagles instead bolstered their defense adding not only the best defensive tackle, but possibly the best overall player in the draft with Jalen Carter. They added Carter’s teammate Nolan Smith and other defensive players to add depth to their roster.
The Eagles won the NFC East in 2022 going 14-3 with their rival, the Dallas Cowboys, nipping at their heels going 12-5. Both the Eagles and Cowboys went 4-2 in the division going 1-1 against “dem boyz.”
The New York Giants and Washington Commanders can hold their own in the division but the Commanders should take a backseat pushing Sam Howell out as their starting quarterback. Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy is probably fighting to keep his job in 2023 so the Eagles should expect a battle anytime they face them. The Eagles however are stacked on offense and defense. It will be hard to find a roster in the NFC East let alone the NFC in general that can compete with this team.
Fly Eagles Fly.
AFC South winner: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars put themselves on the map by finding Trevor Lawrence a head coach that was already an established professional coach. They doubled down and handed the Los Angeles Chargers the third-largest comeback in NFL history in the Wild Card Round of the 2022 playoffs.
The Jaguars didn’t exactly dominate the AFC South in 2022 finishing in 1st with a record of 9-8. That says a lot about the division where the team in second place was the Tennessee Titans who went 7-10. The third and fourth-place teams, the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans, COMBINED for 7 total wins in 2022.
The Texans and Colts will both be trotting out rookie quarterbacks in 2023 and they won’t be without the standard growing pains every rookie quarterback experiences. Lawrence is entering his third season in the NFL and his second with head coach Doug Pederson who is undoubtedly craving a second Super Bowl win in his career. Continuity with the head coach and quarterback is crucial, especially when they have proven that they can be successful together.
The Titans will have their own quarterback dilemma after trying to trade Ryan Tannehill and after failing they drafted Will Levis whose play style is reminiscent of…Ryan Tannehill. The Jaguars’ adversity should be limited to the playing field and have a real shot at repeating as AFC South champs.
NFC South winner: New Orleans Saints
The NFC South was equally as competitive as the AFC South where there was no decisive winner in 2022. The New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, and Atlanta Falcons, all went 7-10 and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers squeezed out a win in the division going 8-9. There was no true front-runner in the division but 2023 will be a different story.
The Buccaneers will be entering 2023 without Tom Brady and it will be a rough one for Todd Bowles and company. The Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers are both entering the season with rookie quarterbacks (essentially as Desmond Ridder hasn’t had much playing time). All four teams are going into the new year with a new quarterback but the Saints have a distinct advantage in adding Derek Carr to lead them.
Carr has never played with an above-average defensive unit and if the Saints are good at one thing it’s defense. Carr reunites with his first head coach in the NFL, Dennis Allen, and Carr will have an array of weapons to work with in the Big Easy. The Raiders’ franchise passing leader should fix any offensive woes the Saints were experiencing since the departure of Drew Brees. Carr has his own issues and the Saints aren’t exactly signing a Hall of Famer but the ceiling is high for the Saints in 2023.
Expect a Saints NFC South division win and Carr’s third trip to the playoffs where hopefully can reach his first playoff win*.
There you have it, our divisional prediction winners for 2023. We went 5 for 8 in our predictions in 2022, how do you think we will fare in 2023?