Trey Lance thus far has not lived up to the hype after he was selected third overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. The San Francisco 49ers traded a significant amount of draft capital to move up to select Lance. Currently the investment is not paying off and there have been rumors circulating about the 49ers fielding calls about trading the young quarterback.
There have been a variety of reasons contributing to him drifting towards the unfortunate label “bust”. Lance should not be labeled as such just yet. However let’s examine three reasons why he could fall into the bust category at the conclusion of the 2023 NFL Season.
REASON #3: AVAILABILITY IS THE BEST ABILITY
Trey Lance has been in the NFL for two seasons and is about to begin his third with the San Francisco 49ers. In that amount of time Lance has seen action in only 8 games. In those eight games Lance has only been the starter in three of them and relieved an injury Jimmy Garoppolo at halftime in one. In the other remaining four games Lance was brought in for specifically designed plays.
In two seasons Lance suffered a hand finger fracture, a knee strain, and two separate ankle injuries both during zone-read running plays. Lance has been so injury prone in such a short amount of time that Draft Sharks have given Lance a 69.5% chance on getting injured in 2023.
Currently Lance’s situation in San Francisco is that he is entrenched in a quarterback battle to be the starter. Lance is up against former New York Jet/Carolina Panther quarterback Sam Darnold and “Mr. Irrelevant” Brock Purdy. Darnold has never played a full season in the NFL in his five years in the league. Purdy is returning from an elbow injury he sustained in the 2022 NFC Championship.
Both Darnold and Purdy may not have a clean health history but currently they are outplaying Lance who besides not playing well is injury prone. If Lance cannot stay healthy in 2023 the front office (and his fans) will continue to doubt his durability and question his future in the bay area.
REASON #2: CAN’T CLIMB THE LADDER IN THE QUARTERBACK ROOM
Trey Lance is currently listed as “QB3” in the San Francisco 49ers quarterback room. Trey was drafted with the influence of head coach Kyle Shanahan with the intention of utilizing Lance’s abilities as a dual threat quarterback. Lance was the backup quarterback upon entering the league behind Jimmy Garoppolo. Injuries hampered his rookie season until 2022 where he was named as the starter. Lance lost the opening game of the season to the Chicago Bears who only won two more games that season.
Lance, who has entered the 49ers 2023 Training Camp healthy, is up against Sam Darnold and Brock Purdy. The two are hardly household names as Darnold is on his third team in five years and Purdy was the last pick in the draft in 2022 before taking over after Lance and Garoppolo were injured.
What is concerning about Lance’s future is that he is being outperformed by these two quarterbacks so far in camp. The most recent media reports describe Lance only completing one of four pass attempts and two were supposedly “gimmies” that he should have completed. One out of four may not sound terrible but Lance is also getting less repetitions than Darnold and Purdy who went 4-7 and 6-11 respectively.
Purdy had an efficient showing in 2022 playing in 9 games and completing 67.1% of his passes throwing for 13 touchdowns with only four interceptions. Additionally Purdy threw for 3 touchdowns in the postseason with no interceptions. Darnold has a less impressive resume with a career completing percentage of 59.7% throwing for 61 touchdowns with a whopping 55 interceptions.
While Purdy was the unsung hero for the 49ers in 2022 it is not as if Lance is competing against Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes for a starting spot. His struggle to compete with a sophomore quarterback coming off an impactful injury and a veteran quarterback with a high turnover rate is very significant.
And just for comparisons sake Lance has a career completion percentage of 54.9% (worse than both Darnold and Purdy) and has thrown for just 5 touchdowns with 3 interceptions. One could argue that Lance has such a small sample size because he has only played in 8 games but that just adds credibility to the “availability is the best ability” argument.
REASON #1: WINNING OVER EVERYTHING
The most important thing in the NFL is winning. Which position you were drafted in or which impressive stat you can boast does not matter if you don’t win. While Trey Lance can be prideful that he was drafted third overall in 2021 it will not change the fact that when he has been available* to play he has not been winning.
Lance has only actually started in three games in his two year career (Bears 2022, Texans 2022, Cardinals 2021) and he came in at halftime against the Seahawks in 2021. As a starter Lance went 1-2 and if you want to include the halftime appearance he went 1-3. Lance has no postseason experience despite the 49ers being a consistent threat in the playoffs since his arrival.
Lance has not been available due to injury. He has not been able to compete against his fellow quarterbacks this far in training camp and is the third stringer heading into August. Worst of all, he is not a winner.
Trey Lance is still not a bust and should not receive that label. However, if he stays on the bench in 2023 he will be. What is almost worst is that if he does play but cannot win games or improve as a quarterback significantly he will deserve the title of a “bust.” We will all be watching Trey in 2023 to see if he can carve out a new identity for himself before he lands in a very unfavorable category.