The NFL MVP award has been won by a quarterback every season since 2013, and there is no sign of that streak ending anytime soon. Some have called the award the 'best quarterback' award, which isn't that inaccurate.
Some don't really like to see quarterbacks winning the award each year, but the NFL is clearly a quarterback-driven league. And even while the running game is making a bit of a comeback, the quarterbacks still stand tall.
In 2024 and 2025, Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford won the MVP, so it's been two years in a row of first-timers winning the award. Could that streak continue in 2026? We power-ranked the most likely first-time MVP winners for this coming season.
Power-ranking the most likely first-time MVP winners for 2026
6. Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
With well over 2,000 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns in 2025, Bijan Robinson was a true weapon on offense for the Atlanta Falcons, not just a running back. If the MVP-quarterback streak ends, Robinson would be the one to do it.
He's one of the more dynamic players we've seen in the NFL in quite some time, and he's really only gotten more productive as his career as progressed. If Atlanta gets competent quarterback play in 2026, Robinson could continue to rack up the yardage, and it would at least be impossible to not include him as a finalist.
6. Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos
Bo Nix is an interesting player, but he's now surrounded by a ton of talent, including the best offensive line in the NFL, a running back room that is suddenly spilling over with talent, and a wide receiver room that saw Jaylen Waddle come into the mix.
Nix's statistical output has been dragged down due to the Broncos struggling with drops, but adding Waddle to the mix is going to make everyone's life easier, and rookie running back Jonah Coleman could have a bigger impact in the backfield than you think.
5. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence ended the 2025 season as an MVP candidate for the Jacksonville Jaguars, so he got into the conversation. If Lawrence can build on how he ended the 2025 campaign, he could sustain a full MVP-caliber season for 2026. Losing Travis Etienne in free agency does hurt, but Lawrence may finally have some stability for the first time in his career.
4. Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks
Sam Darnold helped lead the Seattle Seahawks to a Super Bowl title in 2025, but much of that was also due to a top-tier defense. Darnold did struggle to keep the ball out of harm's way, but even back in 2024 with the Minnesota Vikings, he's proven to be able to be a high-volume passer.
Now set to enter year two with many of the same weapons, it's worth wondering if Darnold's passing production can elevate a bit. He did throw 35 touchdown passes in 2024, and it'd be hard to not look at him as an MVP candidate if he had that type of season, especially if the Seahawks keep winning.
3. Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
Jared Goff has consistently been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL, but since he isn't a dual-threat passer, he's not necessarily propped up like others. He's also been around for 10 years now, so there just isn't a lot of the media push coming his way.
However, Goff is a high-end passer and has put up MVP-caliber numbers before. Goff does get close to the MVP in 2026, the Detroit Lions will not only have to win a ton of games, which they've done before, but Goff will have to keep up this efficient pace through the air.
He's thrown no fewer than 29 touchdown passes in each of the last four seasons and has thrown 101 over the past three.
2. Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots
Drake Maye finished second in the MVP voting in 2025, and while the New England Patriots schedule will be tougher, Maye has at least proved he can get close to winning the award. Maye is kind of a blend between guys like Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, and perhaps even Goff with his big frame, huge arm, and off-schedule ability.
He's got the makeup to be an MVP and is in a stable situation with Josh McDaniels as the offensive coordinator.
1. Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Given the defensive overhaul that the Cincinnati Bengals underwent this offseason, Joe Burrow is in an ideal position to win the MVP this year, and he's the top player in our power rankings. One of the best pocket passers in recent NFL memory, Burrow has sometimes struggled to stay on the field, and the Bengals front office hasn't exactly done Burrow many favors.
But this team did make the Super Bowl in 2021 and got back to the AFC title game in 2022. They've won at a high level before, and this group, on paper at least, could be the most talented Burrow has been a part of. He would be a wise player to look at in 2026 as a potential MVP winner.