Given how talented and loaded the AFC was in 2025, there should be some good teams that miss the playoffs in the conference in the 2026 NFL Season. There were also some breakout teams like the New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars that made things very interesting in 2025, to say the least.
Even if the NFL further expanded to eight playoff teams in each conference, we would still see some talented teams on the outside looking in, but limiting the playoff teams does make the playoff push and Super Bowl run that much more meaningful and urgent.
Now that OTAs and minicamp across the league is wrapped up, and training camp is on the horizon, let's dive into predicting the sevel AFC playoff teams, and their seeds, for the 2026 season.
Predicting all 7 AFC playoff teams with seeding following OTAs and minicamp
7. Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals revamped the defensive side of the ball this offseason, adding new key players like Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, and Bryan Cook. The defense is going to look totally different, and even if the unit is just barely average, that should create a team plenty good enough to make the playoffs.
With how explosive the offense can be with Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins, you really aren't asking much from the defense, which should ease the pressure. The Bengals may not be quite ready to rack up 12+ wins, but a more modest 10 or 11 wins could be a positive step in the right direction, and that would help the franchise get back into the playoffs for the first time since 2022.
6. Los Angeles Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers have gone 11-6 and earned a Wild Card playoff spot in both years of the Jim Harbaugh era, and I truly struggle to see how this team improved enough to avoid that. Sure, the roster is good, but this is more of a 'high floor' team than a high ceiling, Super Bowl-caliber squad.
Somehow, the offensive line is still a concern, and the weaponry surrounding Justin Herbert didn't get significantly upgraded this offseason, either. The defense lost a stud coordinator in Jesse Minter, so a slight regression on that side of the ball is not unrealistic.
Overall, the Chargers know how to win games and will do that in 2026, but this offseason felt like the time to take that next step into contention, and I am not sure if that was done. Another Wild Card spot could be coming for the Bolts in what feels like one of the more important seasons for the team in recent memory.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars
There is a lot to like with the long-term view of the Jacksonville Jaguars, but in the present, I am not sure this team is going to be quite as good this year as they were in 2025. What is clear, though, is that the Jaguars seemed to have finally figured out the right head coach, as Liam Coen had this team playing excellent football in 2025.
Typically, a head coach proves themselves one way or another in year one, and while some of the best head coaches have had losing records early in their careers, there is typically something tangible they can take going into future years.
The Jaguars slide into the fifth seed in the AFC in our predictions. Two big roster losses of Travis Etienne and Devin Lloyd are going to hurt, and this 'rebuild,' if you even want to call it that, is still just in year two.
It's going to take now-GM James Gladstone more than two seasons to clean up some of the mess left by former GM Trent Baalke. The Jaguars also won 13 games last year, which creates a very slim margin for error. I would expect a slight regression, perhaps into that 10 or 11-win window, which would still be good enough for a playoff spot, which would be two years in a row the Jaguars, of all teams, get into the postseason.
4. Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens return back to the top of the AFC North in our latest playoff predictions. The Ravens hired Minter away from the Chargers, and that should end up being a great move, as defenses are able to be improved a bit quicker than offenses, as defenses have begun to take back the advantage over offenses in recent years.
Given how quickly Minter was able to improve the Chargers defense during his stint there, a similar improvement could be coming for the Ravens defense. And it's not like this team can't score a ton of points on offense, either.
Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and Zay Flowers make for one of the league's best offensive trios. All in all, the Ravens are going to bounce back nicely from an injury-riddled 2025 season. They'll win the AFC North and slide into the fourth seed in our playoff predictions, which would give them a Wild Card Round showdown with the Jaguars.
Let's see who our top three teams are in our updated AFC playoff predictions.
3. Houston Texans
The Houston Texans snag the No. 3 seed in our AFC playoff predictions following OTAs and minicamp. Despite starting 0-3 in 2025, which was a shockingly horrid start, the Texans still managed to finish with 12 wins, and it's clear that this team is here to stay.
In the offseason, GM Nick Caserio went out and improved the offensive line with Wyatt Teller and Braden Smith, two reliable veterans. Running back David Montgomery was added to the mix, and the defense even got a boost with Reed Blankenship and Kayden McDonald. It was hard to envision just how the roster could get even better, but Caserio got it done.
The big unknown is quarterback CJ Stroud, as he's been average for most of his career, and if he can't throw it back to his rookie season in 2023 when 2026 rolls around, Houston will again lose in the playoffs.
With the improved offensive personnel, Stroud might be able to fall in between his 2023 performance and what he's done in 2024 and 2025, which could allow him to carve out a top-12-ish season. That, coupled with the elite roster, would thrust Houston back to the top of the AFC South.
2. Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos won 14 games in 2026 and won the AFC West with games to spare. Denver's roster is elite and might be the best in the AFC. Quarterback Bo Nix turned into one of the more clutch players in the NFL last year, and the defense was still thriving as well.
Adding wide receiver Jaylen Waddle to the mix only helps out Nix in a crucial year three, and, like the Texans, the Broncos roster really doesn't have many holes, but most would surely pick Nix over Stroud, and that could end up being the deciding factor in, for example, Denver going 13-4 and Houston going 12-5.
1. Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills earn the top AFC playoff seed in our latest predictions, They did move on from Sean McDermott in the offseason, but new head coach Joe Brady was already with the franchise, so this transition should be a lot smoother than if this team hired an external head coach.
Quarterback Josh Allen is a superstar, and this team has won double-digit games each year since 2019. The Bills own the regular season and could have honestly been a head coaching change away from making the necessary change to actually finally make a Super Bowl run.