The MVP of the NFL has gone to a quarterback every single season since 2013. It's become a quarterback-driven league and 'best QB' award, for the most part. For some NFL fans, that isn't anything to get excited about.
But for others, it's great to see quarterbacks winning the award, as they generally are the most valuable players on the field in most seasons. With how this trend has continued for over a decade, there really isn't any reason to believe that it won't continue in the 2026 NFL Season.
Here are how the last several MVP awards have looked, for some context:
2019: Lamar Jackson
2020: Aaron Rodgers
2021: Aaron Rodgers
2022: Patrick Mahomes
2023: Lamar Jackson
2024: Josh Allen
2025: Matthew Stafford
Now, let's predict quarterbacks most likely to win their first MVP award in 2026, ranking them from least to most likely.
Predicting QBs most likely to win their first MVP award in the 2026 season
6. Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Drake Maye did just barely lose the MVP award to Matthew Stafford in the 2025 season. Maye was otherworldly efficient and could simply keep that up in 2026. One huge reason that people might be doubting Maye and the New England Patriots is obviously the insanely easy schedule they took advantage of, but the other side of this is the possibility that the Patriots and Maye are 100 percent for real.
Since Maye got so close already, it really would not make sense to not include him on this list. I do personally believe that the franchise is going to regress a bit, but Maye's excellence in 2025 could surely spill over into 2026.
5. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Jared Goff finished fifth in the MVP voting back in 2024, so he has gotten somewhat close. What plays to Goff's advantage is just how easily prolific he seems to be each year. In each of the last four seasons with the Detroit Lions, Goff has at least thrown for 4,438 yards and 29 touchdowns.
His statistics over the last four years are almost too excellent to believe as well:
45-23
18,206 yards
130 touchdowns
39 interceptions
103.4 passer rating
Goff has played out of his mind, and if the Lions defense can improve just a hair, that should be plenty for the team to scrape together a few more wins and finally see Goff emerge as a legitimate MVP candidate in 2026.
He deserves more credit and is among the best at the position.
4. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
In the 2025 season for the Denver Broncos, Bo Nix led the NFL with seven game-winning drives, and he also ahd five fourth quarter comebacks. He took fewer sacks, threw for more yards, led the league in passing attempts, had a higher success rate, and had a higher QBR.
While some continue to say that Nix had a 'down' year for the Broncos, it was anything but. Denver won 14 games and captured the AFC West title as well, and Nix himself turned into the most clutch quarterback in the league.
Now with Jaylen Waddle added to the mix, Nix has an ideal personnel situation around him, and, frankly, has no excuses not to explode in 2026. We should be able to see career-high numbers across the board with his passing production, and if that's the case, getting some MVP love would follow.
3. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams was the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and did live up to it in the 2025 season. While the Chicago Bears did leave some meat on the bone, Williams was great. The completion percentage definitely needs to get better, but that could simply improve as time goes on.
Already, Williams is one of the more 'household names' in the NFL, and is already on the cover of Madden. The sort of social aspect of his career could honestly help him in the MVP race.
If the Bears are winning football games, and Williams is playing well, he'd likely find himself in the MVP race in 2026.
2. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence was an MVP candidate to end the 2025 season, finishing fifth in voting. He was also playing out of his mind over the Jacksonville Jaguars' final six games:
6-0
1,600 yards
15 touchdowns
1 interception
113.2 passer rating
If Lawrence would do that over a 17-game season, he'd finish with 4,533 yards, 43 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. So, yeah, that would be plenty enough to win the MVP award. Lawrence does have to do this for a majority of the season, and with his entering year two working with Liam Coen, it's extremely possible.
1. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow finished fourth in MVP voting back in 2022, and again finished in fourth in 2024. Burrow has the raw passing talent to win the MVP, but it's really about not only staying on the field for a full 17 games, but also seeing a complete team.
With the Cincinnati Bengals having revamped the defensive side of the ball, it does finally seem like the Bengals have enough to once again be a juggernaut, and we could soon get to a point with the Bengals where everything is set in place and there are no major weaknesses.