2026 NFL Schedule Release: Which teams have the hardest schedule?

The NFL has not yet officially announced the dates for the schedule release, but the opponents that each team will play are locked in when the regular season is over. The fun part is simply waiting to see when teams will play their opponents.

Contending teams also typically have more primetime action than others, and with the NFL not being afraid to schedule teams to play on notable days like holidays, that's also something to look forward to. Fortunately, we are able to look at which teams have the toughest and easiest schedules for the 2026 season.

Using data assembled below by @sfdata9ers on X/Twitter, we can look at, first, the teams that will have the toughest schedule in the NFL for the 2026 campaign. The rankings are assembled using the win totals by each team from the 2025 regular season.

These teams are projected to have the hardest schedule for the 2026 season

1. Chicago Bears - .550

You just have to feel for the Chicago Bears and their fans. Not only do the Bears have the hardest schedule in the NFC North, a division they won in 2025, but they also have the toughest schedule in the entire NFL. And it's not like the Bears were particularly dominant last year, either.

Caleb Williams' completion percentage was below 60 percent, and the defense, outside of forcing a ton of turnovers, was bad.

2. Miami Dolphins - .542

We could see the Miami Dolphins struggle to win a single game in 2026. With the second-hardest schedule in the league, the Dolphins might soon emerge as a huge favorite to earn the first overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, and with next year's draft projected to be quite deep at the quarterback position, this year might actually pay off in the long run.

3. Green Bay Packers - .538

The second NFC North team in the top-3, the Green Bay Packers collapsed down the stretch after a strong start and lost in the first round of the NFC Playoffs. The Packers have treaded in 'good not great' waters for multiple years now, and one of the toughest schedules in the league might not change that, either.

4. Arizona Cardinals - .538

Another team that could struggle to win a game this year, the Arizona Cardinals may already be 0-6 when you think about it, as they have to play Los Angeles, Seattle, and San Francisco twice. Having six games with those teams is surely inflating this schedule, but either way, the Cardinals have an uphill battle for even a small handful of wins this year.

5. Kansas City Chiefs - .536

I would personally pump the brakes on the Kansas City Chiefs in 2026. Not only do they have a tougher schedule, but there's no guarantee that Patrick Mahomes will be fully ready for the start of the regular season. With the fifth-hardest schedule in the league and the team coming off a six-win season, where is the genuine optimism coming from?

6. New England Patriots - .531

Going from the easiest to one of the hardest schedules in the NFL, the New England Patriots might be as obvious a team as any to regress a bit in 2026. Sure, Drake Maye could still be a hyper-efficient quarterback, and the roster is solid, but this is a total 180 schedule-wise.

7. Las Vegas Raiders - .529

The Las Vegas Raiders have a tough schedule and are probably not wanting to throw rookie Fernando Mendoza into the fire this early, which could be a smart move. Vegas did add a ton of talent this offseason and could be a frisky team, but a top-10 schedule might prevent that.

8. Buffalo Bills - .528

Buffalo always seems to be atop the AFC hierarchy in some capacity, so while their Super Bowl aspirations might again be dashed in the playoffs, there really isn't any reason to believe that the Bills won't win a ton.

9. Los Angeles Chargers - .522

The Los Angeles Chargers have gone 11-6 in the regular season in both years of the Jim Harbaugh era. Given that the Bolts have another tough schedule, and given that this roster didn't get substantially better in 2026, it's hard to see how they eclipse 11 wins.

10. Carolina Panthers - .521

After a very odd season in which the Carolina Panthers won just eight games but also won the NFC South, the team will have a tougher schedule. It's hard to see how Carolina builds on their 2025 season, as I'm not sure Bryce Young is good enough, but they've gone in the right direction in each year of the Dave Canales era.