Football is not merely about the passing game with wide receivers and tight ends. A good team will balance it with a strong and competent rushing attack, led by a strong running back. Fantasy football is no different in that regard; a competitive team needs some strong runners.
However, average draft position is not the safest metric to select one’s team. With running backs taking up multiple starting spots on a fantasy team, it is important to know which ones are safe.
The previous outlooks for quarterbacks and pass catchers displayed a mixed bag of outcomes. In comparison, running backs look dire with just one season of less than 50% of the top-12 falling off year over year.
There is no true good side for running back changes
There is a tie with the “best” odds of returning to the top tier of running backs (RB1). Those spots are 4 and 8, and they stay put just 40% of the time.
The players at those spots from the last fantasy football season are Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry. These are a pair of guys who are stud running backs. If there is a weakness in either player’s game, it would be pass catching, but that is nitpicking.
One case against Taylor would be if Daniel Jones is less of a dual-threat quarterback; would that make opposing defenses stack the box in anticipation of the run? Potentially. However, there is a lot that needs to be seen with Jones’ health before saying anything with any certainty.
With Henry, there is no real case against him other than the same argument of “he is old” that has been used for years now. The king will decide when he wants to step down from the RB1 ranks.
There are three coin flips to return to the top of the running back mountain next season. Those spots are 1, 2 and 5, each with a 50% rate of change.
The players at those 2025 ending positions are Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson and De’Von Achane. The only real argument against any of them is the injury bug. However, that can go for anyone, really.
Each of these running backs is expected to have a high workload. Although, San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is on the record saying he wants to lower McCaffrey’s touches heading into the 2026 campaign.
If that happens, his health could be preserved, and he could be at a lesser risk of injury. However, the question becomes how much will the 49ers limit his touches, and is McCaffrey at risk of not getting enough of an opportunity to repeat as an RB1?
There is a lot of downward movement in the top running back ranks
Slots 3, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11 and 12 all have at least a 60% chance of moving down in the fantasy running back rankings next season. That is a total of seven spots.
The best odds belong to the 3, 10 and 12 positions, with a 60% rate of change over the last decade. The first player this correlates to is Jahmyr Gibbs.
The good news is that Gibbs is heavily involved in both the running and passing attack in Detroit. The only case against him is how sustainable is his usage? After a while, a running back breaks down.
While the Lions' star runner is still on his rookie contract, his total touches have increased each year since coming into the NFL.
Considering Gibbs is the only player with a trend attached to his 2025 ending result, it feels fair to bring it up here. Since 2020, four of the six times a player from the 3 position has fallen out of the RB1 rankings have taken place, giving the Detroit running back a red flag for fantasy football.
The second player in the 60% club is Travis Etienne. His case feels really simple. How will the first-year Saint mesh with the offense?
The offensive line feels comparable to the one he had in Jacksonville. The workload, however, could be different from what Etienne had. There is no telling what New Orleans may do with Alvin Kamara, with all of the rumors about his future circulating.
As such, there is no way of telling what Etienne’s workload might look like for the upcoming season, making him a bit of a risk.
The final member of the 60% rate of change club is Javonte Williams. There is only one case that can be made against him other than health.
Dak Prescott misses big chunks of time in even-numbered years. If that phrase sounds familiar, it is because it has been brought up in each positional breakdown so far. However, it is a wildly important tidbit for every player.
As discussed with Taylor earlier, the quarterback and any potential threat he poses as a runner can make all the difference for the fantasy success of a running back. If Prescott goes down for another prolonged period of time in 2026, Williams likely will not be as effective as he was last season.
The worst of the running back downward spiral
Spots 6, 7, 9 and 11 each sit at the worst rates of change over the last decade of fantasy football, with 70%. The first player is James Cook, who has been an RB1 in each of the last three seasons, which gives a good outlook for him.
Just about the only case against Cook is any possible injury he may incur. However, given he is in the 70% fall off club, if a reader is unsettled by the odds, it might be a decent idea to fade Cook in fantasy this year.
Up next is Chase Brown. There is a case for Brown falling out of the RB1 ranks in 2026. Which version of the running back will drafters get out of him?
Brown started horrendously slow last season before picking it up about halfway through. If the Bengals running back did not have the back half of the season he had, he would not have so much as sniffed the top-12 last year. Inconsistency could cost Brown his RB1 status if it continues into 2026.
The penultimate member of the 70% droppers club is Kyren Williams. The case for him is super simple. Does Blake Corum continue to ascend?
By the end of the season, it felt like Corum and Williams were trading drives. If that continues, it is easy to imagine Williams not seeing enough touches to repeat as an upper-echelon running back in 2026.
Finally, there is Ashton Jeanty. The sophomore running back dealt with one of the worst offensive lines last season. That unit was addressed and improved upon over the course of the offseason.
There is realistically one case against the Raiders running back that does not include the mention of injury. That comes down to how many targets will he get this season? With a new offensive-minded head coach, a pair of new quarterbacks, including one of them being a rookie, and a healthy Brock Bowers, it feels like Jeanty could see less than the 73 targets he had as a rookie.
The question then becomes whether or not the revamped offensive scheme and line will allow him to reach a higher rushing threshold. Everything feels like a wait-and-see for the Las Vegas running back.