The NFC landscape is much more crowded entering the 2026 season than it felt going into 2025. As is the case with the AFC, it feels like competition for playoff positioning this year is going to be at an all-time high, with some of the top contenders in the conference and breakout teams reloading to try and take down the Seahawks this season.
Last year, the NFC was crowded, but underachieved as a whole. This year, it feels like we're going to see teams like the Lions and Packers bouncing back, and possibly some new teams in the mix like the Cowboys and Saints.
Our latest NFL Power Rankings are going to take a look at the entire NFC landscape and rank every team by their projected win total for the coming season. We'll debate each team's over/under on wins for the coming season, and try to sort out one of the most crowded groups we've seen from this conference in quite some time.
NFL Predictions: Every NFC team's win total for the 2026 season
16. Arizona Cardinals: 4 wins
The Arizona Cardinals are in a rebuilding year after firing head coach Jonathan Gannon and moving on from former #1 overall pick Kyler Murray.
Teams with a quarterback holding out for a bigger contract are usually in a lot better of an overall position than the Arizona Cardinals, but with a rookie head coach and a seemingly low ceiling, this could be a long year for Arizona in the win column.
But that doesn't mean this team will be boring to watch. The Cardinals have one of the best tight ends in the game in Trey McBride, and they've now added Jeremiyah Love and Tyler Allgeier to the backfield to give the running game a massive boost. This team should at least be entertaining offensively while they figure out the long-term future of the roster.
15. Atlanta Falcons: 6 wins
Even with a veteran head coach like Kevin Stefanski coming in, and even with the Falcons playing some decent football late last season, it's just hard to see this team really being much of a factor in the 2026 season.
If Michael Penix Jr. can come back from injury and make a huge leap in his third NFL season (time really flies in the NFL), then the projection from the Falcons looks a lot different. But this team brought in Tua Tagovailoa for a reason. Penix has plenty of injury concerns from his past, but they are now directly affecting the 2026 projection of this Falcons team.
The cupboard isn't bare for Atlanta, by any means, and I love the retention of Jeff Ulbrich as the team's defensive coordinator. Having that continuity on defense could raise the floor for the Falcons, but this team is only going as far as Penix will take them. The current over/under of 6.5 wins feels right, and while I'm not exactly hammering the under, I think Atlanta could finish with one of the worst records in the league.
14. New York Giants: 7 wins
The first year of the John Harbaugh era is going to be a fascinating one to watch for the New York Giants. The Baltimore Ravens moved on from Harbaugh because they felt like they were really missing out on their window as a team, and that he was obviously part of what was holding them back.
But sometimes, a veteran coach who has worn out his welcome in one NFL city can be a gift from the football gods for another. The Giants definitely needed the veteran presence Harbaugh brings as the head coach and CEO of a team, and he should help raise the floor of the team overall.
The early over/under for the Giants' win total this coming season is set at a pretty healthy 7.5, and I wouldn't be shocked to see them hit the over. They have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, but right now, I'm erring on the side of caution due to the fact that injuries have been holding this team back in recent years.
13. New Orleans Saints: 7 wins
I felt like I was higher on the New Orleans Saints than most heading into the 2026 offseason, and then I saw their projected win total set at an over/under of 7.5 wins.
Just like with some of the other teams hovering around the bottom of the NFC, it feels like the quarterback position could swing the pendulum in a major way either direction this coming season.
The Saints spent a 2nd-round pick on Tyler Shough last year, so they obviously weren't overly surprised, but the fact that Shough looked as good as he did when taking over for Spencer Rattler really took a lot of folks in the NFL world by surprise.
If Shough can continue to make strides, the Saints could be a playoff team this coming season.
12. Carolina Panthers: 8 wins
The Carolina Panthers made some major improvements last season on the defensive side of the ball, and although it wasn't a season that's going to earn any banners in the rafters, the Panthers won the NFC South and have something to build on this coming season.
The one thing that's really holding this team's projection back is the offensive side of the ball, and maybe more specifically, quarterback Bryce Young. Just like the Saints, the Panthers' over/under is set at 7.5 wins for this coming season, and I'm taking a conservative "over".
I really liked the additions of Jaelan Phillips to one of the worst pass rush groups in the NFL, and the addition of Devin Lloyd to the middle linebacker posiiton really gives the Panthers another playmaker at the second level to keep that trajectory moving upward in 2026.
11. Washington Commanders: 8 wins
It doesn't feel like there's a general consensus with the Washington Commanders as we get into the meat of the 2026 offseason. The Commanders made it all the way to the NFC Championship Game just two seasons ago, but they were obviously one of the worst teams in the NFL in 2025.
What does that mean for 2026? Ultimately, it feels like nothing.
You can't base the 2026 projection of the Commanders on how good they were in 2024, because the roster is unrecognizable in a lot of ways compared to that team. You can't base the 2026 projection on last season, either, because the Commanders dealt with so many injuries on both sides of the ball.
The over/under is set at a low 7.5 wins, which should be an easy bar for the Commanders to clear as long as Jayden Daniels stays healthy.
10. Minnesota Vikings: 9 wins
The Minnesota Vikings have unofficially moved on from JJ McCarthy with the addition of Kyler Murray in NFL Free Agency, but time will tell if that move will lead to McCarthy's eventual departure from Minneapolis.
For the time being, it feels like the entire NFL world is operating under the assumption that Murray is going to be the starting quarterback for the Vikings, who still managed to win 9 games last season despite the fact that they had major quarterback issues all year.
The problem this season is that the Vikings overhauled their defensive front, they lost a key leader defensively in Harrison Smith, and their entire division is brutal. The over/under is set at 8.5 wins for the Vikings early on, and I like that number to start. Kevin O'Connell has earned the benefit of the doubt as his teams have played well above expectations almost every year that he's been with the Vikings.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9 wins
The Buccaneers are a team skating by on the reputation they've built over the past few seasons. And that reputation is on thin ice after the way they finished the 2025 season.
Early on last year, it looked like the Bucs were destined for the NFC Championship Game at worst, and that Baker Mayfield was on his way to MVP considerations. The second half of the season ended up being a brutal disappointment for the team, and many are wondering if this could be the last year in Tampa Bay for both Mayfield and head coach Todd Bowles.
Losing Mike Evans and Lavonte David hurts in terms of the veteran leadership, but the Bucs did get better in other ways this offseason. Most notably, I'm still in a state of shock over the fact that Rueben Bain lasted to the Bucs' pick in the middle of the 1st round of the 2026 NFL Draft. Getting Bain upgrades one of the weakest pass rushes in the league.
The over/under is set at just 8.5 wins for the Bucs this season, so the oddsmakers in Vegas are also operating with caution.
8. Dallas Cowboys: 10 wins
Believe it or not, the Dallas Cowboys currently have one of the highest over/under win projections in the NFC for this coming season at 9.5 wins.
And considering the way their offense played in 2025, it's hard to blame Vegas for thinking that way. If the Cowboys had even a semi-competent defense last year, they might have coasted into the NFC Championship Game. But that wasn't the case.
The Micah Parsons trade almost put some sort of a hex on that side of the ball as Dallas was not only horrendous defensively, but they were snake-bitten in the injury department. Now that they've reloaded with a lot of veteran and rookie upgrades alike, the expectations will once again be quite high for this Dallas team.
It feels like a 10-win season is well within reach.
7. Detroit Lions: 10 wins
When you think about the 2025 season, is there any team more disappointing than the Detroit Lions? It would be a surprise if you put anyone else on top of that list considering how close it felt like the Lions were at the end of the 2024 season.
The loss of Ben Johnson as the offensive coordinator and Aaron Glenn as the defensive coordinator proved to be much more detrimental to the whole operation than apparently Dan Campbell even expected.
It's another new era for the Lions in 2026, with Drew Petzing taking over the offensive play-calling and finding himself under a mountain of pressure with one of the most talented groups of offensive skill players in the entire league.
The oddsmakers in Vegas are expecting the Lions to bounce back with an over/under set at 10.5 wins. It feels like 10 wins should be well within reach, but I'm not 100 percent ready to smash the over on that projection yet.
6. San Francisco 49ers: 10 wins
Just like a number of the other teams on this list, we're going with a fairly conservative estimate of wins for the 49ers here, even though their over/under is set at a whopping 10.5 wins heading into the 2026 season.
The 49ers were one of the best teams in the NFL last season, despite the fact that they had to deal with one injury after another, including having to have Mac Jones in the starting lineup at quarterback for a huge chunk of the season.
What's really crazy is that the 49ers were as good as they were last season while finishing dead last in the NFL in sacks. They won 12 games last season, but do they have what it takes to get back to that total in such a competitive division? I'm going with a lower-end estimate here, but I wouldn't be shocked if the 49ers were back up in the 12-13 win range again this coming season.
5. Green Bay Packers: 10 wins
Late last season, the Packers lost star pass rusher Micah Parsons to a major knee injury, and all at once, there was no longer any wind in their sails. That injury crushed their entire 2025 season, and what could have been a deep playoff run.
This season, it's easy to project a little bit of a regression for Green Bay. They've lost some key veterans on both sides of the ball, and we don't know exactly when to expect Parsons back in the fold. Even with that in mind, Green Bay is set at an over/under of 10.5 wins.
I loved what they did getting Javon Hargrave when he hit free agency, boosting the interior defensive line. They cleaned house a little bit at wide receiver, but a more defined role for Matthew Golden this season could take the passing game to another level.
4. Philadelphia Eagles: 11 wins
At this point, we just expect the Philadelphia Eagles to have a floor of 10 or 11 wins, right? Even with a struggling offense, and plenty of drama to go along with it, the Eagles finished last season with 11 wins. And that felt like a bit of a worst-case scenario type of season.
With AJ Brown almost certainly gone in the coming weeks, does the projection for the Eagles change at all? The over/under projection for Philly this coming season is set at 10.5 wins, just like a number of other NFC teams, but unlike in previous years, I wouldn't exactly be smashing the over.
The feeling I have with the Eagles this offseason, especially if/when they end up trading AJ Brown away, is that this team's ceiling is going to be somewhere around 11 wins. It feels like the Eagles are going to have to overachieve a little bit, but with their defense, they have to be considered division title contenders once again.
3. Seattle Seahawks: 11 wins
I don't want to be overly negative when it comes to the Seattle Seahawks, but I'm going to rain on the Super Bowl parade just a little bit.
It isn't a small deal that this team lost offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who is now the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders. It's also not a small deal that they just let Kenneth Walker out the door, especially considering Zach Charbonnet is still recovering from a knee injury he suffered in the playoffs. A Super Bowl-winning team is expecting a lot out of a rookie running back -- Jadarian Price -- who was not even the starter on his own college team.
But perhaps that can work to his and their beneift. The real losses on this roster came defensively (Boye Mafe, Riq Woolen, Coby Bryant). Can the Seahawks reload without a ton of notable veterans who helped them win it all in February?
2. Chicago Bears: 12 wins
The Chicago Bears had a breakthrough season in 2025, and if you ask me, they're just getting started.
I'm a huge believer in Ben Johnson and what he's capable of doing in the chess game that is the NFL. Johnson is one of the biggest difference makers in the league when it comes to coaching and scheming, and he has elite talent to work with there in Chicago, starting at the quarterback position.
The Bears got a huge jump last year from Caleb Williams, and in so many ways. His accuracy was better, he cut down on mistakes, and he took way fewer sacks. Again, it feels like the sky is the limit for this team. The Bears won 11 games last year, so I'm going with a conservative projection, but improving to 12 wins or more is very much on the table.
The over/under is set at a very low 9.5 wins for the Bears, and they might be the easiest "over" projection in the entire NFL, much less the NFC.
1. Los Angeles Rams: 13 wins
Predicting a team to win more than 12 games in a given season is lofty, no matter how good a roster is. But the Los Angeles Rams are worthy of that kind of lofty prediction.
The Rams won 12 games last season, and for most of the year, it felt like it took the best effort of every team that ended up beating them just to get across the finish line. And now, the Rams have made one of the most substantial improvements of any team in the entire league, making a blockbuster trade to acquire Trent McDuffie from the Chiefs.
The over/under is set at 10.5 wins for the Rams, but that just doesn't feel right. It would require some monumental late-game collapses -- on multiple occasions -- for this Rams team to lose more than 5 games this coming season.
I don't see any way the Rams win less than 12, and I wouldn't be shocked if they get 14 or 15.