Indianapolis Colts: 8 wins
The Colts were one of the best teams in the NFL last season entering their bye week, and then everything quickly started to fall apart.
This team went from 8-2 entering their bye week to missing the playoffs completely, which is not an easy thing to achieve. They are generally considered another one of those teams in the AFC projected to win 8 or 9 games this coming season, and I just don't see how the Colts are any better -- roster-wise -- than they were last season.
The injury to Daniel Jones can provide both hope and dread for this coming season. If he can sustain that level of play for 17 games, the Colts might shoot right past this projection. If the injury remains an issue, they are going to struggle once again.
Kansas City Chiefs: 9 wins
I think the Kansas City Chiefs have one of the most egregious preseason projected over/under win totals of any team in the entire NFL, not just the AFC.
The Chiefs' over/under is set at 10.5 wins this coming season, which means that the NFL world and oddsmakers in Vegas are expecting a major bounce-back for them. There are just a few problems with that. The offensive line is a huge question mark. The wide receiver position is already not good, and made worse by Rashee Rice's latest situation. The defense is going to be young, especially in the secondary.
The Chiefs will have to do more with less this year, and Patrick Mahomes is coming off of a major knee injury. Even if he's progressing well in his recovery, Mahomes's greatest strength as a player is making plays on the move.
Everyone in the NFL media last year threatened that we shouldn't doubt the Chiefs or count them out, and I won't do that. But it feels like this team's ceiling is 9 or 10 wins as opposed to that being the floor.
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