Buffalo Bills: 12 wins
Just like the Houston Texans seem like they're guaranteed to win at least 10 games this season solely based on their defense, the Buffalo Bills seem like they get a guaranteed 10 wins just because of the presence of Josh Allen.
I don't think this is the "most talented" Bills roster we've seen in the Josh Allen era, and it's fair to be a little skeptical of a 12-win projection given the fact that the Bills fired Sean McDermott as their head coach, replacing him internally with Joe Brady stepping in.
Still, the Bills have a few things going for them that they've leaned on to overcome any deficiencies roster-wise in the past, including the presence of Allen and one of the best running games in the entire NFL. Buffalo also quietly had an elite pass defense last season.
The over/under is set at 10.5 wins for Buffalo this season and I see them getting past that number quite easily.
Denver Broncos: 12 wins
After winning 14 games and hosting the AFC Championship Game last season, the Denver Broncos might be the easiest "over" projection of the 2026 season. They are currently set at an over/under of 9.5 wins, which feels borderline offensive.
The Broncos easily have the highest percentage of returning snaps from last season (well over 90 percent), and they added Jaylen Waddle to the mix to be one of Bo Nix's favorite new targets.
Just like every NFL team, the Broncos have plenty of question marks still. They won 11 games last season by one score, and need to find ways to win more decisively in 2026. They also had a very inconsistent offense and sub-par running game much of the season, which is part of the reason why wunderkind Davis Webb is now going to be calling plays instead of Sean Payton.
The Broncos have a tough stretch of six games to start the 2026 season, but this team's talent and depth is good enough to set the floor at 10 wins and go from there.
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