The 2025 season was a very strange year for the AFC overall. The playoff field didn't include a number of familiar faces, including Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson.
Entering the 2026 season, most are expecting the star power to return to prominence in the AFC, but the new teams that joined the conference's elite last season also figure to be sticking around. This could be one of the most competitive and drama-filled seasons we've had in recent memory.
As OTAs loom for all teams across the league, we're going to assess all of the changes made this offseason, players getting healthy, roster status, and make our predictions for how many games each team in the AFC will win in 2026, starting from the lowest win projection to the highest.
NFL Predictions: Predicting every AFC team's record for the 2026 season
Miami Dolphins: 3 wins
The worst record in the NFL last season was 3-14 (multiple teams), and that feels about where the Dolphins are going to end up this year. Now, if the Malik Willis signing is a hit, and he's a true game-changer for Miami at that position, then all bets are off. But right now, the Dolphins' over/under is set at a pretty generous 4.5 wins for this season, and that feels right.
This is a rebuilding team, and even the Chargers are accusing them of tanking at this point.
As we've pointed out all offseason, a new GM and a new head coach typically means roster and culture overhaul. And that typically comes at the expense of winning games.
Las Vegas Raiders: 5 wins
The Las Vegas Raiders won three games last season, and they've once again completely reshaped the roster in 2026.
The biggest addition this team made was obviously #1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza, who will be the team's future at the quarterback position. But the present at quarterback is Kirk Cousins, and the Raiders have arguably the worst wide receiver room in the entire NFL right now.
We need to see offensive line improvement (which the Raiders also paid for in signing Tyler Linderbaum), as well as marked improvement on the defensive front before we buy the resurgence of the Raiders. Rookie head coach and roster question marks -- even with many improvements made -- usually equals more moral victories than actual ones.
Cleveland Browns: 6 wins
The Cleveland Browns won five games last season, and they were in the mix for a few more. As with every team in the entire NFL, the projection for the Browns largely depends on what happens at the quarterback position, but they do feel like they could be better this year record-wise than they were last year.
In fact, I'll push a little more optimism for Browns fans and say that I think six wins for this team is about the absolute floor that I would predict at this point. The primary reason for that is the Browns' improvement in the trenches.
This team is going to prioritize running the ball and playing good defense. Todd Monken is going to have that new-look offensive line playing at a high level each week, and I wouldn't be shocked if the Browns are a lot tougher this year, even if they're still a mortal lock for double-digit losses.
New York Jets: 6 wins
The Jets feel like a significantly improved team on paper, but only time will tell.
The biggest reason for trepidation here is quarterback Geno Smith. Even after being an interception machine last year for the Raiders, the Jets seemingly prioritized bringing Smith back to where he started off his NFL career in 2013.
Is Smith going to be able to take better care of the ball? He certainly has much better weapons at his disposal now with the Jets than he did with the Raiders, which counts for something. The Jets' defense also looks vastly improved on paper, even without Sauce Gardner at the cornerback position.
This team has an interesting combination of youth and experience, and over/under 5.5 wins seems like a decently easy "over" right now.
Tennessee Titans: 7 wins
I've been high on the Titans pretty much all offseason, so I'm not going to be stopping that train anytime soon. And it doesn't appear as though I'm alone.
The oddsmakers in Vegas have the over/under for the Titans' win total this season at 6.5, which I found to be really surprising. You typically see more conservative win/loss projections for teams like this at this point of the offseason, but everyone's buying what the Titans are selling.
And what they're selling is a Year 2 leap for Cam Ward, the impact of head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, and an improved defense overall. The Titans' roster took some devleopmental lumps last year, but after winning just three games in 2025, they're poised to at least double that total.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8 wins
The Pittsburgh Steelers never had a losing season under head coach Mike Tomlin, so it feels almost like a stroke of destiny that they would have a losing season in their first year without him.
That's not what Steelers fans want to hear, of course, but this team has been stuck for a long time in the "good" category. They need to find a way to break through, but they also might need to take a step back before they can take two steps forward under Mike McCarthy.
The over/under for the Steelers is set at 8.5 wins right now, and that feels about right. This just feels like an 8 or 9 win team, maximum. Even with Aaron Rodgers returning, and even with the Steelers winning the AFC North this past season, they just don't feel like true contenders.
Indianapolis Colts: 8 wins
The Colts were one of the best teams in the NFL last season entering their bye week, and then everything quickly started to fall apart.
This team went from 8-2 entering their bye week to missing the playoffs completely, which is not an easy thing to achieve. They are generally considered another one of those teams in the AFC projected to win 8 or 9 games this coming season, and I just don't see how the Colts are any better -- roster-wise -- than they were last season.
The injury to Daniel Jones can provide both hope and dread for this coming season. If he can sustain that level of play for 17 games, the Colts might shoot right past this projection. If the injury remains an issue, they are going to struggle once again.
Kansas City Chiefs: 9 wins
I think the Kansas City Chiefs have one of the most egregious preseason projected over/under win totals of any team in the entire NFL, not just the AFC.
The Chiefs' over/under is set at 10.5 wins this coming season, which means that the NFL world and oddsmakers in Vegas are expecting a major bounce-back for them. There are just a few problems with that. The offensive line is a huge question mark. The wide receiver position is already not good, and made worse by Rashee Rice's latest situation. The defense is going to be young, especially in the secondary.
The Chiefs will have to do more with less this year, and Patrick Mahomes is coming off of a major knee injury. Even if he's progressing well in his recovery, Mahomes's greatest strength as a player is making plays on the move.
Everyone in the NFL media last year threatened that we shouldn't doubt the Chiefs or count them out, and I won't do that. But it feels like this team's ceiling is 9 or 10 wins as opposed to that being the floor.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 10 wins
The Jacksonville Jaguars won a whopping 13 games last season, and nearly put together a strong enough streak in the back half of the season to become the #1 overall seed in the AFC.
That didn't quite happen, but this is one of the more balanced teams in the AFC when it comes to their efficiency both offensively and defensively. But it's also possible that the Jaguars are this year's version of what the Washington Commanders were in 2024 and 2025.
Despite the insane run they went on last season, the Jaguars lost two major players in running back Travis Etienne and linebacker Devin Lloyd, and they didn't properly replace either guy. They were inactive in free agency, and most people felt like they had a bad 2026 NFL Draft class.
I don't see how the Jaguars got better, so they had better hope they can catch the same type of fire they had last year. The over/under is set at 8.5 wins, which means Vegas is expecting a major regression from them as well.
Baltimore Ravens: 11 wins
When healthy, it's impossible to argue against the Ravens being one of the best teams in the entire NFL. And all throughout last season, I think it's safe to assume we all felt like things were going to start clicking for the Ravens at some point.
They didn't.
The Ravens made the somewhat shocking decision to fire John Harbaugh this offseason, replacing him with defensive guru Jesse Minter. If Minter can work his magic on that Ravens defense, and Lamar Jackson gets back to form, it's hard to see this Ravens team winning less than 11 games.
And that's right where the over/under is set -- 11.5 wins for this team. The Ravens still have question marks on the offensive line and in the pass rush department defensively. Dre'Mont Jones led the team in QB hits last season despite not even playing the whole season with the team (acquired via in-season trade). There are issues beyond just Lamar Jackson staying healthy, but we know this Ravens team can bounce back, and we expect them to do so.
New England Patriots: 11 wins
After seeing them get dismantled in the Super Bowl by the Seahawks, a lot of fans and analysts in the NFL world did a little revisionist history with the Patriots.
While everyone was singing their praises all throughout the 2025 season, calling Drake Maye an MVP candidate, many of the same people were quick to call the Patriots frauds for playing an easy schedule in the regular season before a rather atrocious postseason run, at least offensively.
Still, you can't ignore or deny what the Patriots were able to do last season. If they can figure out a way to finalize the AJ Brown trade, that offense could vault to even crazier levels in 2026.
What's the primary issue with the Patriots right now? It's ironically their head coach, Mike Vrabel. We have no idea how his off-field issues right now are going to impact the Patriots -- if at all -- this coming season. The Patriots won 14 games last season, but a regression to 10 or 11 wins feels realistic with a tougher slate of opponents.
Los Angeles Chargers: 11 wins
There might be more reasons to like the Los Angeles Chargers this year than any other year of the Justin Herbert era.
The Chargers have a great head coach in Jim Harbaugh. They hired Mike McDaniel to come in and call the offense this year, and McDaniel is a genius when it comes to drawing up a run game scheme. Especially for a team like the Chargers, that is huge. The Chargers need balance offensively, and they need to stay healthy on the offensive line. McDaniel can help with at least one of those things.
Defensively, the loss of Jesse Minter probably isn't getting talked about enough. He was truly one of the elite coordinators in the league, which is why the Ravens stole him away as their new head coach. The Chargers have a veteran-laden defense, but a first-year coordinator in Chris O'Leary.
This Chargers team won't win fewer than 10 games this coming season so long as Herbert stays healthy.
Cincinnati Bengals: 11 wins
If there's one team we're buying some offseason hype for right now, it's the Cincinnati Bengals.
The return of a healthy Joe Burrow immediately makes the Bengals a contender in the AFC, but the additions they've made defensively could really push them back into "elite" status as a team.
Dexter Lawrence is one of the most disruptive interior linemen in the entire NFL, but the Bengals have a cast of characters around him that can really get after the quarterback. Last year's 1st-round pick -- Shemar Stewart -- is now joined by the likes of Cashius Howell and Boye Mafe off the edge. The Bengals got veteran Jonathan Allen as another steady presence on the interior.
If Burrow is healthy, that defensive line looks good enough to help this team make a deep run. Given their "easier" schedule, no team is currently favored in more games for the 2026 season than Cincinnati.
Houston Texans: 12 wins
With how good the Texans' defense already is, they should be guaranteed at least 10 wins for the upcoming season. It's hard to see Houston winning less than 10 with that defense as a whole, and they got even better this offseason with the additions of players like 2nd-round pick Kayden McDonald and veteran safety Reed Blankenship.
The question mark with this team is obviously on the offensive side of the ball. Houston's offense has seemingly regressed over the past two years, which makes very little sense considering how great CJ Stroud looked as a rookie. Can he find a way to get back to that level of play once again?
The over/under for Houston is set at 9.5 wins right now. It's just really hard to see them winning less than 10 games, but we've seen more shocking things in the NFL before. I'm thinking they're more of a mortal lock to win the AFC South this coming season.
Buffalo Bills: 12 wins
Just like the Houston Texans seem like they're guaranteed to win at least 10 games this season solely based on their defense, the Buffalo Bills seem like they get a guaranteed 10 wins just because of the presence of Josh Allen.
I don't think this is the "most talented" Bills roster we've seen in the Josh Allen era, and it's fair to be a little skeptical of a 12-win projection given the fact that the Bills fired Sean McDermott as their head coach, replacing him internally with Joe Brady stepping in.
Still, the Bills have a few things going for them that they've leaned on to overcome any deficiencies roster-wise in the past, including the presence of Allen and one of the best running games in the entire NFL. Buffalo also quietly had an elite pass defense last season.
The over/under is set at 10.5 wins for Buffalo this season and I see them getting past that number quite easily.
Denver Broncos: 12 wins
After winning 14 games and hosting the AFC Championship Game last season, the Denver Broncos might be the easiest "over" projection of the 2026 season. They are currently set at an over/under of 9.5 wins, which feels borderline offensive.
The Broncos easily have the highest percentage of returning snaps from last season (well over 90 percent), and they added Jaylen Waddle to the mix to be one of Bo Nix's favorite new targets.
Just like every NFL team, the Broncos have plenty of question marks still. They won 11 games last season by one score, and need to find ways to win more decisively in 2026. They also had a very inconsistent offense and sub-par running game much of the season, which is part of the reason why wunderkind Davis Webb is now going to be calling plays instead of Sean Payton.
The Broncos have a tough stretch of six games to start the 2026 season, but this team's talent and depth is good enough to set the floor at 10 wins and go from there.