The Kansas City Chiefs have been enjoying a pretty comfortable reign atop the AFC West since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter back in 2018. And frankly, the Chiefs had been really good before that as well. It's been the best stretch in franchise history, but for the first time in a long time, this Chiefs team might actually need to be looking over its shoulder in 2025.
The Chiefs have become masters of the one-score game in recent years and they find creative ways to win almost every single week. More often than not, the Chiefs don't even have to be great to win games, they simply just take advantage of the mistakes of the teams they're going up against.
That was true in their matchups against AFC West opponents last year as well where every single game was a one score victory and the only loss came in Week 18 when the Chiefs benched their starters in Denver to prepare for the playoffs. They won't have the luxury of benching starters late in the season in 2025. Not with how significantly improved this division is as a whole.
Let's take a look into our NFL prediction crystal ball and try to predict each team's record in this division in 2025.
NFL Predictions: Chiefs in danger of rising AFC West teams in 2025
Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5
I don't think it's a stretch, by any means, to say that the Chiefs were lucky to win 15 games last season. Like I said before, they have simply become masters of winning the one-score game and they've done it in creative ways. The 2024 season was proof that this Kansas City team simply knows how to close any type of game, whether they need a big stop on defense, a clutch drive from the offense, or a big play on special teams.
They fill up the BINGO card.
At some point, however, the luck has got to run out. The Chiefs winning 15 games last year was a complete shock if you watched how every one of their games unfolded. I think they will play just as well in 2025, if not better, but they won't be able to close out every single one-score game. I'm setting the over-under for the Chiefs at 11.5 wins and for now, I'll take the over.
Denver Broncos: 11-6
The Denver Broncos won 10 games last season and have progressed much quicker than anyone anticipated under head coach Sean Payton. The Broncos won eight games in Payton's first year with the team and they improved by two wins last year despite the fact that they were dealing with an NFL-record $90 million in dead cap.
Now, the Broncos have added even more talent to an already-talented roster. They upgraded a defense that already ranked 3rd in the league in points allowed and 1st in sacks last year. The Broncos were 1-6 last season in one-score games and you have to figure they won't be that bad again at closing tight ones in 2025.
This is a team that won nine games last year by nine points or more. They got blown out by the Ravens, but they kept every other game close enough to win. Pressure is on Bo Nix to progress but with an improved running game, it's hard to see this Broncos team being worse than 10 wins in 2025.
Los Angeles Chargers: 11-6
Yes, shockingly I think we could have three AFC West teams in the 2025 season winning more than 10 games. The Los Angeles Chargers were extremely impressive last year in the first year of the Jim Harbaugh era, and you can't help but feel like they're going to get even better in year two.
There has been plenty of roster shuffling going on from head coach Jim Harbaugh and general manager Joe Hortitz, but the Chargers look reloaded and tough on both sides of the ball.
I love the aggression to upgrade the offensive weaponry around Justin Harbert this offseason by signing Najee Harris and then drafting Omarion Hampton and Tre Harris early on. The Chargers do have some major question marks right now on the defensive front, but Jesse Minter's scheme last year was tough for teams to move the ball against.
Until we got to the playoffs, anyway.
Las Vegas Raiders: 8-9
I badly wanted to project every team in the AFC West to have a winning record this coming season. I have a lot of faith in Pete Carroll and Geno Smith to quickly turn things around for the Raiders and get this team back to a truly competitive status very quickly.
With that said, there are a lot of things that will have to go right for the Raiders defensively this season, and the work is just simply not done.
Pete Carroll is going to get the most out of his guys, and the offense with Geno Smith, Brock Bowers, and Ashton Jeanty is going to give teams fits. But this Raiders team is one or two injuries away from being a team that simply keeps games close for three quarters on a week-to-week basis. I think this team is going to be one of those that wins some games they shouldn't and then gains a bunch of confidence from people, only to have a letdown against an inferior opponent.
There have been so many nice additions to this roster in 2025 but the Raiders still are a step behind their AFC West peers.