Another week gone by and what a week it was in Week 11 for the NFL. More close games, more games with potentially massive playoff implications, and more dazzling performances from some of the league's best. And now, we get the chance to make our NFL picks and predictions for Week 12, one of the most fun weeks of the NFL season.
What makes this a fun week? Thanksgiving, of course.
There will be three games played on Thursday afternoon, and a Black Friday game for fans as well. You fantasy football players will be on your toes all weekend with this loaded slate of games, which features three pretty epic Thanksgiving matchups and some big ones on Sunday as well.
Week 12 NFL picks and score predictions
Week 12 byes: No teams on bye week
Green Bay Packers (4-6) @ Detroit Lions (8-2)
Thursday, November 23, 12:30 PM ET
The Detroit Lions are simply one of the best teams to watch in the NFL this season and one of the league's best teams period.
The Lions trailed late in the fourth quarter at home against the seemingly upstart Chicago Bears with Justin Fields making his return to the field, and there was a little Michigan on Ohio State crime at the end of regulation. Aidan Hutchinson, the former Michigan star edge defender, came screaming off the left side of Detroit’s defense, hit Justin Fields from behind, knocked the ball loose, and sealed the win for the Lions.
The Lions are now 8-2 this season and will host the Packers for their classic annual Thanksgiving Day game, and the Packers are actually bringing some momentum into this one.
Jordan Love has really started finding a groove with his young receivers and is spreading the ball around to everyone effectively. As exciting as that has been to watch players like Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs, and even tight end Luke Musgrave find their footing as this season has progressed, how can you pick against the Lions at home here?
Prediction: Lions win 28-24
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Washington Commanders (4-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
Thursday, November 23, 4:30 PM ET
The Washington Commanders really came out in Week 11 and laid an egg against the New York Giants. The Giants, starting Tommy Devito again at the quarterback position, pretty much controlled the game against the Commanders, who had to scrape and claw to get back in it late in the 4th quarter.
And then Sam Howell unfortunately couldn’t finish the job once again.
The Commanders now have a short week to go on the road and face off against another divisional opponent to keep their season alive. The problem with that? The Commanders have already been swept by the rest of the NFC East so far this season including two losses to the Giants. It doesn’t get any easier with a road matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, who improved to 7-3 over the weekend with another dominating victory over a bad team.
The Cowboys have to be absolutely kicking themselves for losing to the Arizona Cardinals earlier this season. Dallas has certainly been imperfect this season overall but they’ve got so many dominating victories that it’s hard to see how they’re going to go out and lose this one against Washington.
Dallas boasts one of the best scoring offenses and one of the best scoring defenses in the entire NFL. The Commanders obviously have been resilient at times this season but I don’t think there’s any way they’re getting a bite of the six-legged turducken on Thanksgiving Day.
Prediction: Cowboys win 31-16
San Francisco 49ers (7-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
Thursday, November 23, 8:20 PM ET
Before or after you have your third (or fourth or fifth) slice of pie, cap off the night with one of the top matchups of the week in Seattle with the 49ers coming to town for a massive divisional matchup.
After a spell of three games where they weren’t able to score more than 17 points and where they lost their first three games of the season, the 49ers appear to have figured everything out once again and are back to absolutely torching teams with their star-studded offense.
Brock Purdy continues to look like a much better player than just a game-manager out there for the 49ers, and Brandon Aiyuk continues to make himself a lot of money with the way he has played this season. The 49ers are a well-oiled machine, and they took it to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon.
The Niners open up as 5.5-point favorites on the road against the Seahawks, and this will be the first of two matchups in just a couple of weeks for each of these teams. And these matchups could very well determin the NFC West division race before mid-December.
But it starts in Seattle, which is obviously a great advantage for Seattle. It’s why the 49ers are only favored by 5.5 points despite the fact that they have consistently blown out opponents this season. Just ask the Jaguars, who took a 34-3 loss on their home field a couple of weeks ago to the 49ers…
This game has potential to be close, but I think the 49ers gut out a road victory.
Prediction: 49ers win 34-23
Miami Dolphins (7-3) @ New York Jets (4-6)
Friday, November 24, 3:00 PM ET
The Miami Dolphins found a way to escape with a victory against the Las Vegas Raiders, who have clearly been given a jolt by the firing of former head coach Josh McDaniels. Once the Raiders fired McDaniels and promoted Antonio Pierce into the interim head coach position, that team started playing much more complementary football and they hung with Miami to the very end.
Unfortunately, Aidan O’Connell messed around and found out what happens when you throw the ball at Jalen Ramsey…
Ramsey, playing in just his third game of the year so far, proved exactly why he’s long been considered one of the very best cornerbacks in the game, picking off two Aidan O’Connell passes. He’s already got three interceptions so far this season…
Offensively, the Dolphins have the firepower to really outlast anybody. Although they set a bit of an unfair precedent for themselves by scoring 70 points earlier this season against the Denver Broncos, you can’t help but think they’re going to be able to go on the road and get a win against the New York Jets, barring an absolute disaster of a performance in terms of turnovers.
The Dolphins can’t sleep-walk to a win, by any means, but if they go in and take care of business, this is a game they should be able to win. Vic Fangio has historically been really great at scheming defense against quarterbacks like Zach Wilson who are really limited in terms of what they can do passing the ball.
This is a game where Miami should be able to pull away as the game goes along.
Prediction: Dolphins win 24-15
New Orleans Saints (5-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (4-6)
Sunday, November 26, 1:00 PM ET
The Atlanta Falcons are coming off of a bye week and thanks to the division they play in, they have a chance to continue making a playoff push in Week 12 despite currently being projected to pick in the top 10 of the 2024 NFL Draft.
The Falcons come out of their bye week with a home game against the division-leading New Orleans Saints, and the only unfortunate bit of news for Atlanta is the fact that the Saints are also coming off of their bye week. So they’ve had time to plan for this as well and make some necessary corrections with some time off.
This game really sort of feels like the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object. Not in terms of the quality of each of these two opponents, but it just really feels like picking one of these two teams on a weekly basis is a true shot in the dark.
What do we have to base our picks on here? Neither of these teams are consistent. The Falcons are 3-2 this season at home and the Saints are 3-3 on the road. Neither of these teams have a stable QB position right now.
So what are we supposed to do as far as NFL picks are concerned? Well, that’s a great question. You’ve got to go with your gut here. Which teams is going to be better prepared coming off of a bye week? Which team is going to limit turnovers offensively?
This is truly a coin flip on paper.
Prediction: Falcons win 26-24
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-5)
Sunday, November 26, 1:00 PM ET
You just can’t help but feel absolutely gutted for Joe Burrow at this point.
Burrow has been sacked more times up to this stage of his young NFL career than Andrew Luck was as a member of the Indianapolis Colts, and remember that Luck ended up retiring over injuries as a result of taking so many hits. The two situations are completely different and I’m not implying that Burrow is going to retire, but the fact of the matter is, the Bengals haven’t appropriately protected their franchise superstar, and he’s now suffered a second season-ending injury in just his fourth NFL season.
Remember, Burrow suffered a season-ending knee injury in his rookie year back in 2020.
Now, the Bengals will have a home game in Week 12 against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that is going to be like sharks smelling blood in the water. This Pittsburgh defense did just lose a game against a backup QB, but allowing only 13 points, it’s had to really blame them.
The Steelers’ offense is pathetic, and it has been all year long. It’s a wonder they’ve been able to win six games in the first place.
When you look at this game on paper, you immediately want to give the edge to the Steelers because the Bengals are going to trot Jake Browning out there to start, but Kenny Pickett is so bad on the other side that I can’t honestly say the Steelers are making this pick easy.
In fact, Pickett is so bad and Browning showed some decent enough stuff late on Thursday night that I’m not so sure the Bengals won’t rally around him for at least a game and get a win at home here.
Prediction: Bengals win 19-17
Carolina Panthers (1-9) @ Tennessee Titans (3-7)
Sunday, November 26, 1:00 PM ET
At least if Will Levis and Bryce Young are playing in this game, it should be fun to watch.
Unfortunately, this game has potential to also be the biggest dud of the week. We might honestly need to start talking about Panthers head coach Frank Reich being on the hot seat. Carolina basically went out this offseason and spared no expense when it came to allowing Reich to build his coaching staff, and then they traded DJ Moore and a bounty of picks to go and bet the future of the franchise on Bryce Young.
Considering how well CJ Stroud is playing for the Houston Texans, you can’t help but wonder if Panthers ownership is going to be furious (if they’re not already) about the Panthers holding the #1 overall pick and still missing out on the best QB in this class.
Situation obviously matters, but wow, Stroud looks lightyears ahead of anyone else in this year’s class.
That would include Will Levis as well, a second-round pick who has shown some promise early on with four touchdowns in his NFL debut. He had a bit of a dry spell over the last two games with no touchdowns in almost 80 pass attempts, but he bounced back with a decent performance against the Jaguars statistically, completing 13-of-17 passes with a pair of touchdowns (and a lost fumble) in a 20-point loss.
Mike Vrabel and Frank Reich could both be on the hot seat going into this game.
Prediction: Titans win 23-19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) @ Indianapolis Colts (5-5)
Sunday, November 26, 1:00 PM ET
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers follow up a tough matchup on the road against the San Francisco 49ers with a trip to the midwest to face off against the well-rested Indianapolis Colts.
As great of a story as Baker Mayfield has been this season, you can’t help but wonder if the Colts can keep things interesting in the AFC South. If they can get a win in this game against the Buccaneers, they will be able to at least keep a bit of pace when you look at the Jaguars and Texans going up against each other.
And the Colts have done a good job this season when facing off against teams that currently have a losing record. They’re 3-1 against teams currently with a losing record and the Colts also have a couple of signature wins with road victories against both Houston and Baltimore.
The Colts are a curious case, though. Gardner Minshew is obviously their QB1 after Anthony Ricahrdson’s season-ending injury, and while Minshew has done a solid job, the Colts have been carried by a top-10 running game and a defense that forces a lot of turnovers.
They’re going to need to bait Baker Mayfield into some bad throws in this one because the Bucs boast one of the NFL’s best run defenses (6th in yards allowed) and a defense that also forces a ton of turnovers.
I think the Bucs’ defense is going to be able to get the better of Gardner Minshew in this one, even with the Colts having had the extra time to prepare. The oddsmakers aren’t overly confident in the Colts (-1) playing at home.
Prediction: Buccaneers win 23-20
New England Patriots (2-8) @ New York Giants (3-8)
Sunday, November 26, 1:00 PM ET
I’ve got to hand it to Tommy Devito and the New York Giants. I had very little expectations for this team based on what we had seen in the first couple of starts of his NFL career, but Devito had a nice game against the Washington Commanders and has caused me to think that maybe this game won’t be the absolute worst of the week in Week 12.
In terms of teams facing off with the worst records, this game is the dud of the week and there’s really no question about it. The Patriots have played in a number of my “dud of the week” games and that’s because they are borderline unwatchable when it comes to the way their offense has played.
How about the Pats coming off of a bye this week? Does that really matter right now?
The early betting line has the Patriots favored on the road here by 5.5 points. I tend to think that a Bill Belichick-coached team is going to be able to come off of a bye week and beat Tommy Devito.
But we do have to give Devito his flowers. He somehow threw three touchdowns while also taking a whopping nine sacks against the Commanders on Sunday. I just don’t think that kind of success is going to be sustainable, but I’ve been dead wrong about the Giants before.
I’m going to take the Patriots coming off of a bye in this one, even as horrendous as their offense has been all year.
Prediction: Patriots win 17-10
Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3) @ Houston Texans (6-4)
Sunday, November 26, 1:00 PM ET
Here it is -- the NFL's game of the Week in Week 12.
Unfortunately, it’s mixed in the 1:00 window with a bunch of other games. Not that the schedule-makers should have known that these two teams were going to be jockeying for 1st place in the AFC South at this point, but this is certainly one you’d love to see flexed in a week where most of the best games are in prime time slots.
At any rate, this one will draw a ton of attention, and for good reason.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have carried over somre positive momentum from the second half of last season, and with the progression we’ve seen from Trevor Lawrence at the QB position, I think it’s safe to say that this is a team that has found its stride. They are 7-3 and have a chance to go on the road this week and gain some serious ground in their division.
But there are few teams in the entire NFL hotter than the Houston Texans right now, and there are few quarterbacks who are slinging the rock as confidently as rookie CJ Stroud. Now, that confidence may have gotten the better of stroud a little bit against the Cardinals as he threw three interceptions, but he still threw a pair of touchdowns and the Houston pass rush/pass defense bucked down at the right moment to seal their sixth win of the year, and third win in a row.
As far as this matchup is concerned for NFL picks, the Jaguars are 1.5-point road favorites. That means Vegas is really on the cusp of buying this Texans team straight up, but not quite. I think you can bank on this one maybe being a bit more chess match than shootout, although NFL fans would love to see two young stars in Trevor Lawrence and CJ Stroud sling the ball around the yard for three hours.
Prediction: Texans win 24-23
Cleveland Browns (7-3) @ Denver Broncos (5-5)
Sunday, November 26, 4:05 PM ET
The Cleveland Browns have been a pretty inspirational team this season, all things considered. The Browns made a mistake trading away Joshua Dobbs before the start of the season, but you can’t exactly blame them from taking the offer of a 5th-round pick for a guy who wasn’t in their plans for the short or long-term. And luckily for them, it hasn’t exactly “cost” them their season, either.
With Deshaun Watson playing only six of this team’s 10 games, the Browns have had to deal with missing their QB1 for a good chunk of this season, as well as the injuries earlier this year to star running back Jack Conklin and running back Nick Chubb. This team has endured, thanks largely to one of the best defenses in the entire NFL.
And they’ve now won games with Watson, PJ Walker, and rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson. DTR got his first NFL win on Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Browns have put themselves in great position before going on the road against Denver in Week 12.
And this Denver Broncos team is playing some inspired football as of late. Are the Broncos perfect? Absolutely not, but Sean Payton has his team winning, and they are not only playing relatively mistake-free football offensively (in terms of turnovers), but the defense has forced a whopping 12 turnovers in the last three games.
Now you’ve got the chance to go up against a Cleveland team with a very young quarterback at home and get a desperately-needed AFC win to keep on making a playoff push.
I think the Broncos extend their winning streak to five in this one.
Prediction: Broncos win 20-16
Los Angeles Rams (4-6) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-9)
Sunday, November 26, 4:05 PM ET
The Arizona Cardinals showed a lot of fight once again in Week 11, almost winning back-to-back games with Kyler Murray back in the lineup as the team’s starting quarterback. Unfortunately for them, they simply didn’t have enough against the Houston Texans and rookie phenom CJ Stroud, a team currently beating any and everyone that steps in their path.
The Cardinals, though, are pretty fascinating as a team despite being just 2-9 this season. They played pretty well while Joshua Dobbs was their starter, and aside from a total clunker with Clayton Tune in as the starter a couple of weeks ago, this is a team that I think can continue to make life tough on everyone they play for the remainder of the season.
Here in Week 12, they are taking on the Los Angeles Rams, a team that has been tough to figure out all year.
I do believe this Rams team is capable of going off at any point, but they simply don’t have the consistency right now to inspire any sort of confidence that they can go on the road and get a divisional win, even against a team like the Cardinals.
The Super Bowl champs from just a couple of seasons ago look like a shell of their former selves.
I really don’t know about the early betting line having the Cardinals as home underdogs by 2.5 points in this game. I think with Kyler Murray gaining some steam, this Arizona team can get their third win of the season and keep the Rams in a tailspin.
Prediction: Cardinals win 27-24
Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) @ Las Vegas Raiders (5-6)
Sunday, November 26, 4:25 PM ET
The Las Vegas Raiders have been playing some inspired football since the team’s decision to fire head coach Josh McDaniels and replace him with interim head coach Antonio Pierce. Pierce and the Raiders gave the Miami Dolphins all they could handle over the weekend, and they did it with rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell going up against a Vic Fangio-coached defense.
O’Connell needed to throw the ball a few more times to Davante Adams instead of Jalen Ramsey in the game, but you can’t help but be impressed with how the Raiders are fighting.
They now get the chance to take a shot at Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who just shockingly lost a home game coming off of a bye week. That simply doesn’t happen to Andy Reid-coached teams…
The Chiefs are in somewhat of a funk right now. They’ve lost two of their last three games, and the offense for Kansas City has only scored 20 points or more twice since Week 5 (once vs. the Chargers, once vs. Miami). The Chiefs obviously just lost to a quality opponent at home, playing against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles have the best record in the NFL and they showed why they are probably the NFL’s best team right now.
And the Chiefs’ flaws have been obvious all year. Patrick Mahomes doesn’t have receivers outside of Travis Kelce that he can trust.
I don’t think the Raiders are winning this game, but it might be more interesting than the Chiefs would like.
Prediction: Chiefs win 27-20
Buffalo Bills (6-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)
Sunday, November 26, 4:25 PM ET
After losing back-to-back games the Buffalo Bills finally got back on the board with a much-needed win against the New York Jets, who are legitimately one of the hardest teams to watch in the NFL.
The Bills simply had to go out and take care of business on Sunday afternoon, as good as the Jets’ defense has been at times this season, and that’s exactly what they did. After losing to the Denver Broncos in heartbreaking fashion on Monday night, the Bills bounced back against an AFC East rival and will head into Philadelphia with some renewed confidence.
And they’re going to need it. The Philadelphia Eagles have obviously been one of the best teams in the league all year long, and this will be a fascinating road matchup for Josh Allen to prove that he’s not on some sort of rollercoaster ride no one really wants him to be on.
The Philadelphia Eagles are 9-1 and coming back home after a really hard-fought win against the Kansas City Chiefs. Does this have the potential to be a trap game for Philadelphia? We all know the Buffalo Bills aren’t going to be overlooked by really anyone, not with Josh Allen at the quarterback position, but it could very well be a “letdown” kind of week for the Eagles.
Philadelphia is a 3.5-point home favorite in this game, which is a pretty clear indicator of how close Vegas really thinks this game is going to be. I’m actually a little torn about it as far as just a straight up NFL picks matchup. If the best version of the Buffalo Bills shows up, anything is possible.
You know what? Let’s just say the Bills keep it rolling in Week 12. The Eagles can’t win ‘em all, right?
Prediction: Bills win 31-28
Baltimore Ravens (8-3) @ Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)
Sunday, November 26, 8:20 PM ET
The Baltimore Ravens got back on track in Week 11 with a big win over the Cincinnati Bengals, a game where Cincinnati obviously lost star QB Joe Burrow to a season-ending wrist injury.
The Ravens continue to play good football as a team, and I will say again what I’ve already said seemingly a million times at this point: I think the Ravens are the best sum of their parts out of any team in the NFL right now.
What do I mean by that? What I mean is that Baltimore may not be the most talented team in the NFL in terms of looking at their roster on paper, but they play as well together as any other team in the NFL.
I’m not typically a fan of picking road teams coming from the East Coast to play against West Coast teams at home, but this is one of the rare exceptions. This is one of the rare exceptions for a few reasons.
First, and foremost, the Chargers are not playing well as a team right now. They just aren’t. Say what you want about Justin Herbert, injuries, Brandon Staley, or whatever. The Chargers just aren’t playing good enough football as a team.
Second, the Chargers don’t have a good home-field advantage as it is. It’s a big advantage for a team like Seattle playing at home, or Denver, or San Francisco. It’s not really an advantage for a team like Los Angeles.
The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites and while I think that’s fair because the Chargers can score a lot of points, I also think that’s selling the Ravens a bit short. The Chargers are 2-4 in their last six games, and their two wins have come against the New York Jets (who are incompetent offensively) and the Tyson Bagent-led Chicago Bears.
Prediction: Ravens win 29-24
Chicago Bears (3-8) @ Minnesota Vikings (6-5)
Monday, November 27, 8:15 PM ET
What an absolutely gut-wrenching loss for the Chicago Bears in Week 11...
Even with Justin Fields back in the lineup, and even after taking the Detroit Lions within an inch of their lives on the road, the Chicago Bears open up as 4.5-point underdogs on the road in Week 12 against the Minnesota Vikings.
The Bears made some big plays in Justin Fields’ return from injury, and Fields kind of picked up where he left off with a touchdown pass and over 100 yards as a runner. But it wasn’t enough.
Fields and the Bears literally fumbled the game away as they had a chance to at least tie in the final minute of the game before Fields was hit by Aidan Hutchinson, losing the ball in the process and ultimately, the game. This Chicago team is winning while it’s losing because they are currently projected to finish with multiple top-five picks, including the first overall pick thanks to the Carolina Panthers.
The Minnesota Vikings are coming off of their first loss in over a month, a tough loss on the road against the Denver Broncos. You can't help but wonder if we see Justin Jefferson back for this game with the urgency ramped up yet again. It would be the first time we've seen Jefferson catching passes from the "Passtronaut" himself.
I think the Vikings cap off a tremendous weekend of football with a close win.
Prediction: Vikings win 24-22