There's very little in sports better than the stretch run of the NFL season, although it's hard to believe we're already at that point of the 2023 season. We're making NFL picks and score predictions with a Christmas flare, and the NFL is spreading the cheer this holiday season with games on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, including multiple games every day except Thursday.
Playoff races are heating up all over the league and after Week 15, we have some really significant matchups coming up in Week 16.
Let's not waste any time. Who is winning in Week 16? Here are our Week 16 NFL picks and score predictions.
New Orleans Saints (7-7) @ Los Angeles Rams (7-7)
Thursday, December 21, 8:15 PM ET
The New Orleans Saints are still in it, but they draw a pretty tough matchup in Week 16 with a road trip to Los Angeles to take on the Rams.
The Saints have found a way this season despite being perhaps one of the most inconsistent teams in the league week to week. But I guess the nice thing about being inconsistent week to week is that the Saints have found a way to win half their games so far, putting them in a position to possibly squeeze into the playoff picture whether as a Wild Card or perhaps even the NFC South division champs.
But if they’re going to win the NFC South, they need this game against the Rams, and I don’t know if they are going to get it. The Rams have been another inconsistent team, but more than the Saints, this Rams team has the feel of a team that has truly been ascending and getting better as the season progresses.
The early betting line has the Rams as four-point favorites in this game, and I like that projection.
Prediction: Rams win 24-20
Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)
Saturday, December 23, 4:30 PM ET
This matchup between two AFC North teams undoubtedly has playoff implications but it feels like each of these teams is headed in a significantly different direction.
The Cincinnati Bengals have come through with some clutch wins as of late, including another overtime win this past weekend against the Minnesota Vikings. With their backs against the wall and Joe Burrow on the sideline, the Bengals and backup QB Jake Browning have found some new life. It's really been exciting to watch, and Browning has played some great football for them.
While the Bengals have really put themselves in a great position, the Steelers have absolutely laid an egg over the last month. They've now lost three straight games, including matchups against the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots.
After dropping their matchup on the road this past weekend against the Indianapolis Colts, the Steelers are down bad. They desperately need a win here against the Bengals, and as crazy as it may be to say, they really need Kenny Pickett back. Although I'm not sure it really matters who is under center for the Steelers' offense at this point. Do we really have confidence in them to score 23 points?
First to 20 might win this ballgame, and I'm not confident in the Steelers getting 20 points at all.
Prediction: Bengals win 23-19
Buffalo Bills(8-6) @ Los Angeles Chargers (5-9)
Saturday, December 23, 8:00 PM
Well, that escalated quickly, didn't it?
The Los Angeles Chargers went from losing at home to the Denver Broncos to losing Justin Herbert for the entire season, and then losing to the Raiders 63-21. After that horrific loss, the Chargers then fired GM Tom Telesco and head coach Brandon Staley.
Sorry to all the folks who had the Chargers making it to the Super Bowl this season. At some point, we've all got to learn that the story of the Chargers is basically the same every year, and very few quarterbacks have lost as many games in their first four seasons as Justin Herbert. Those are just facts.
Now, the Chargers play a home game against the Buffalo Bills, who will gladly take this "gimme" on their schedule. The Chargers are beaten, battered, and broken. We know that teams can sometimes galvanize after firing a head coach, but this version of the Chargers is a shell of the team. There's no Justin Herbert, and even though Easton Stick deserves respect as an NFL quarterback, there's just no way (in my eyes) that the Chargers are getting a win here against Buffalo.
The Bills just need to make sure they don't shoot themselves in the foot, and this should be a relatively easy win.
Prediction: Bills win 27-13
Indianapolis Colts (8-6) @ Atlanta Falcons (6-8)
Sunday, December 24, 1:00 PM ET
The Indianapolis Colts have been one of the most interesting teams to watch all season long. Of course, they’re not the only team that’s had to use their backup quarterback for an extended period of time, but the way the Colts have played with Gardner Minshew under center is really impressive.
In his 10 starts this season, the Colts are 6-4 when Minshew is the starter, and head coach Shane Steichen deserves a lot of serious consideration as the NFL’s Coach of the Year with the way that team has played.
They’ve not only had to deal with the injury to Anthony Richardson, but they’ve also had to deal with injuries at running back. And they just continue to find ways to be productive on offense, put up points, and play tough defense as well.
Now, they’ve got to go on the road to face off against the Atlanta Falcons, whose hopes of winning the NFC South took a huge hit in Week 15. The Falcons couldn’t get the job done against the Carolina Panthers, which has sort of cemented the fact that this Falcons team is a pretender this season.
Despite their loss to Carolina, and despite the rather convincing win for the Colts against the Steelers, the early betting line has the Falcons as 1.5-point home favorites. I don’t know about all that. I think I’m taking the Colts by 7.
Prediction: Colts win 29-22
Seattle Seahawks (7-7) @ Tennessee Titans (5-9)
Sunday, December 24, 1:00 PM ET
At this point, the Tennessee Titans can only hope to play spoiler. The AFC South is locked in a three-way tie with three teams at 8-6, and the Titans are left watching the others have all the late-season fun like Squidward watching Spongebob and Patrick from his bedroom window.
They had a chance to do it against the Texans in Week 15 but couldn’t finish the job in overtime. That Titans offensive line nearly got Will Levis broken in half.
It was a tough performance as the Titans were riding some momentum following a clutch win against the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football. But this Titans team may have found its quarterback. Obviously, there have been some growing pains with Will Levis but with a rookie quarterback, you kind of have to live with those. He’s shown off his impressive arm talent, athleticism, moxie, and poise in big moments.
And he’s going to need to show all of that again as the Titans get ready to play host to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 16.
I just think this will be a really tough matchup for the Titans. Obviously, we’ve seen with their game against Miami and really even against the Texans that this team is going to be a tough out as the season goes along. But I think Seattle can go on the road and rattle Will Levis a little bit. Regardless of whether the Seahawks are going to have Drew Lock or Geno Smith at the QB position, I think we can see this Seattle team keep their playoff hopes alive.
They’re currently favored by 2.5 points, and a late field goal could get this one done.
Prediction: Seahawks win 23-20
Detroit Lions (10-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (7-7)
You can't help but wonder how good the Vikings might have been this season if Kirk Cousins had been able to stay healthy. You've also got to respect the job that Kevin O'Connell has done in making sure his guys are ready to compete week in and week out. Keep in mind, this Vikings team was looking like they were heading for a top-10 draft pick at one point, but they've managed to stay in the playoff mix even without Cousins and even Justin Jefferson for a large majority of the season.
But the Vikings might be heading down a slippery slope at this point.
Watching Nick Mullens operate the offense for Minnesota on Saturday against the Cincinnati Bengals, it's clear that this Vikings team is no longer equipped to hang with really good teams. They simply need everything to go right.
And I don't think that's going to happen against the Detroit Lions. Although the Lions hit a bit of a dry spell there dating back to their Thanksgiving loss to the Green Bay Packers, they got back on track in a big way against the Denver Broncos on Saturday night, winning 42-17. It was a dominant effort in which the Lions did a tremendous job of winning at the line of scrimmage and limiting mistakes.
If they can play mistake-free football, they're going to beat the Vikings rather easily. Minnesota just doesn't have the talent to keep up right now with a team like Detroit.
Prediction: Lions win 31-17
Washington Commanders (4-10) @ New York Jets (5-9)
After an impressive showing offensively a couple of weekends ago, the New York Jets were back to being pathetic against the Miami Dolphins.
And I mean pathetic.
This game between the Jets and the Commanders is clearly the America's Dud of the Week and it's hard to imagine you'll be seeing much of this game on the Red Zone Channel outside of whatever interceptions get thrown or fumbles are lost.
Both the Commanders and Jets are teams looking forward to next season already at this point. The Jets just have to be grateful their first-round pick is not going to the Green Bay Packers in that Aaron Rodgers trade at this point...
And as bad as the Jets have been offensively this season, I don't see the Washington Commanders posing much of a threat when it comes to playing against this Robert Saleh defense. The Jets have proven, even amidst their offensive struggles, that the defense isn't going to let the team go down without a fight most weeks.
This game should be expected to be very ugly, but I don't know that you can bank on the Jets scoring more than 10 points. Somehow, they are 3.5-point favorites on the opening line.
Prediction: Commanders win 13-10
Green Bay Packers (6-8) @ Carolina Panthers (2-12)
Sunday, December 24, 1:00 PM ET
The Carolina Panthers finally got back in the win column in Week 15 with a victory over their NFC South division rivals from Atlanta. It was a desperately needed sign of something good going on in Carolina. Although their 2023 season is lost, it’s still a time to evaluate the core players on this roster.
A 9-7 win against the Falcons isn’t exactly inspiring a ton of confidence going forward, but a win is a win in this league. And if you can play a little spoiler for the Falcons? Well, you’ll take that if you’re Carolina.
This season just continues to be a total uphill battle for rookie Bryce Young. Young has struggled badly in his rookie season, and the Panthers decided it was largely due to the coaching. Frank Reich is gone, and the search for that new coaching staff is likely well underway behind the scenes.
Because of all that, don’t be surprised if Carolina serves as a get-right team against the Green Bay Packers. The Packers lost another tough game this past weekend against the Buccaneers, and that was a game they desperately needed to win playing at home. They just couldn’t stop Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers offense, feeding into the “fire Joe Barry” cries coming from the Packers fan base.
I think Green Bay can go on the road and get the job done here, jumping back to 7-8 and keeping their playoff chances alive.
Prediction: Packers win 24-13
Cleveland Browns (9-5) @ Houston Texans (8-6)
Sunday, December 24, 1:00 PM ET
You just never know how things are going to work out in the NFL, do you?
This Week 15 matchups for the Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans includes two veteran quarterbacks – Joe Flacco for the Browns and Case Keenum for the Texans – who came through in the clutch for their respective teams in Week 15 to keep pace in the crazy AFC playoff picture.
What’s really fascinating about these two quarterbacks? They were pegged as the starting QBs for the Denver Broncos in consecutive seasons – Keenum back in 2018 and Flacco in 2019.
Now, at least Flacco's got a shot to help his new team to another clutch win. Houston’s defense kept them in a game last weekend against the Tennessee Titans, and Keenum and the offense made just enough plays to finish the job. In Cleveland, Flacco threw for a ton of yards but also made a handful of bad throws that nearly cost the game against Chicago.
This is shaping up to be the most interesting game in the early window and obviously it comes with huge playoff implications. I think I’m taking the Cleveland Browns – who have been so resilient – to win this one on the road, even with CJ Stroud potentially returning after missing last weekend's game. With Stroud back into the mix, I think Houston can keep it tight, but that Cleveland defense will humble a lot of QBs.
Prediction: Browns win 26-24
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
Sunday, December 24, 4:05 PM ET
Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers continue to be an intriguing team late into the 2023 season. Although the talk before the start of this season was that the Bucs would find themselves picking in the top five of the 2024 NFL Draft, that has been anything but the case and Tampa Bay is in the driver’s seat of the NFC South with just three games to play.
It’s not the most impressive run at a division you’ll ever see, but what makes it impressive is the fact that no one really expected Tampa Bay to be in this position.
But Mayfield is playing well, and the Bucs have shown some serious resilience. And now they’ve got a matchup in Week 16 at home against an in-state opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Right now, few teams are reeling as bad as the Jacksonville Jaguars. This team looked like it was en route to establishing itself as a true power in the AFC, and they are now looking at a three-way tie for the division lead with the Texans and Colts in terms of their overall record.
Things can change quickly in the NFL, but this has been a slow burn for the Jaguars. They desperately need a win here against the Bucs, and I have very little confidence they’re going to get it. They are early Yeah 2.5-point road favorites, but I’m taking the Bucs outright.
Prediction: Buccaneers win 27-23
Arizona Cardinals (3-11) @ Chicago Bears (5-9)
Sunday, December 24, 4:30 PM ET
I don’t think we can call the Cardinals and the Bears America’s Dud of the Week despite their pretty bad records on both sides. I think these two teams could actually provide us with a really interesting and fun game to watch.
Justin Fields had the Bears as close as you can get to winning on a Hail Mary as possible against the Cleveland Browns. His pass was batted right into the stomach of Darnell Mooney, who couldn’t quite reel it in. And as a result, the Bears’s playoff hopes are likely dashed at this point.
It’s unfortunate, because they have been playing some decent football as of late. If they had been able to keep it up, it would have been interesting to see what they could do in a Wild Card game.
At any rate, you now have two quarterbacks facing off in this game who can kill you with their ability to run the football. You’ve also got a number of really interesting offensive weapons on each side, and a Bears’ defense that has been stepping things up as of late. Montez Sweat, acquired at the trade deadline (and subsequently given a contract extension) has seven sacks in the last four games and has been proving himself to be worth the price of admission.
I like the Bears at home in this game. They are 4.5-point favorites, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one get into a little bit of a shootout.
Prediction: Bears win 31-27
Dallas Cowboys (10-4) @ Miami Dolphins (10-4)
Sunday, December 24, 4:25 PM ET
As I was getting ready to type in my preview for this game, I initially made an error and marked the Miami Dolphins down as being 11-4 already this season. Is that a sign of what’s to come in this game?
I don’t know about all of that…
The Dallas Cowboys just got absolutely wrecked on Sunday by the Buffalo Bills, a game in which I didn’t feel overly confident in picking the Cowboys thanks to how much the Bills had their backs up against the walls. Buffalo was the much more focused team on Sunday, even after the Cowboys dominated the Eagles the week prior.
When you look at this matchup between Dallas and Miami, I think it’s easy to see another slip-up coming for the Cowboys. Especially after what we saw against Miami, we know Vic Fangio is going to watch that tape and do a lot of the same things we saw Sean McDermott and that Bills defense do against Dallas.
Can the Cowboys rebound? Can they go on the road for a second consecutive week against a really quality AFC opponent and come away with a win? The oddsmakers like the Dolphins by 1.5 points in this one, and I don’t disagree with them on that.
On the one hand, it’s hard to pick against Dallas with the way they’ve played the majority of the season. On the other hand, the quick-strike Dolphins offense doesn’t really play into Dallas’s strengths.
Prediction: Dolphins win 34-31
New England Patriots (3-11) @ Denver Broncos (7-7)
Sunday, December 24, 8:15 PM ET
Things could not have gone worse for the Denver Broncos in Week 15. Sean Payton's crew had a chance to jump into one of the three Wild Card playoff spots with a win in Detroit against the Lions, but the Lions absolutely cleaned the Broncos' clocks.
It was an ugly 42-17 loss, and Denver was sent home after a disappointing 1-2 road trip that might have cost their postseason hopes. They have left themselves no room for error and falling (painfully) short against Detroit was detrimental to their season.
They're going to have to have a short memory with the New England Patriots coming to town in Week 16. It does appear as though the Patriots could end up losing the remainder of their games, potentially contending for that 1st overall pick in 2024. The Broncos are going to have to do their part to help the Patriots get there.
Although it wouldn't be a quality win in terms of the opponent, the Broncos desperately need this win against an AFC opponent to stay in the playoff race. Denver's playoff chances took a major hit with the Bengals, Colts, Texans, Browns, and others in the AFC coming away victorious. But if the Broncos can run the table (games against the Pats, Chargers, and Raiders), they've got a shot.
I think Payton will have his guys ready to play in this one, as opposed to what we saw against the Lions.
Prediction: Broncos win 23-13
Las Vegas Raiders (6-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs (9-5)
Monday, December 25, 1:00 PM ET
The Kansas City Chiefs finally got back on track in Week 15 with a road win against the New England Patriots. Times have really changed in the NFL, haven't they? A December road trip to Gillette Stadium is no longer an issue at this point.
And who would have thought that this game would feature a team that just scored 63 points in a game?
The Las Vegas Raiders, under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, scored a combined 63 points in two games played within four days of each other. Meaning, they were completely shut out on Sunday against the Vikings, and then dropped 63 on the Chargers four days later.
The NFL is weird.
But I don't think there's going to be anything weird about this game. The Kansas City Chiefs got back on track against the Patriots and while the Raiders will probably play them pretty tough, I think this is a Chiefs win by 10 points. Kansas City is going to be locking in for a late-season run and the Raiders are merely getting in the way.
Although this Kansas City team is certainly not the automatic win every week in NFL picks and predictions they were a season ago, I feel pretty comfortable about this one.
Prediction: Chiefs win 28-17
New York Giants (5-9) @ Philadelphia Eagles (10-4)
Monday, December 25, 4:30 PM ET
Although Tommy DeVito mania has coole off a little bit, the New York Giants still have one of the best stories in the entire NFL this season. For DeVito to play the way that he has given the circumstances?
You’ve got to tip your cap.
The New York Giants, though, can only really hope to go to Philadelphia and hope to play spoiler at this point. Unlike last season, this team isn’t destined to go to the postseason. Instead, they’re preparing for the potential of a slight rebuild or reload after the year is over.
The Philadelphia Eagles have been a weird team virtually all year. You almost feel like this Eagles team is playing up or down to its competition at times, but it feels like they’ve had the same types of struggles all season. And when I say struggles, I’m of course speaking relative because this Eagles team has clearly been one of the best teams in the league all year.
And yet there’s just something “off” about them. We obviously saw Philadelphia get beat pretty bad by both the 49ers and the Cowboys, but to lose to the Seattle Seahawks with Drew Lock at QB?
I mean, that about says it, doesn’t it?
Now, those guys in Seattle are pros, too. But that’s a game this Eagles team – trying to take that no. 1 seed in the NFC – certainly expected to be able to win.
I think they get a win against the Giants in Week 16, but the bigger picture for the Eagles is concerning.
Prediction: Eagles win 30-20
Baltimore Ravens (11-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (11-3)
Monday, December 25, 8:15 PM ET
This could be a Super Bowl preview as well as a Super Bowl rematch.
Only this time, no Joe Flacco.
The 49ers and Ravens have very clearly been the class of both the NFC and AFC, respectively, and they look like two of the most complete teams in the league right now. It’s pretty awesome to see this game on the regular season schedule, because otherwise we’d have to wait and hope for February to see these two teams play.
The 49ers are on another heater right now, just absolutely obliterating opponents in every possible way and taking care of their business with relative ease. Brock Purdy could legitimately win the NFL MVP award, and if he doesn’t win it, it might be his teammate, Christian McCaffrey.
The 49ers are firing on all cylinders after a little three-game skid earlier this season. They have scored 27 or more points in each of their last six games, and they’ve scored 31 or more in four of the last six. It’s been incredibly impressive offensive efficiency paired with defensive dominance. The 49ers look like an unstoppable force right now.
Of course, we’ll see how they fare against the Baltimore Ravens, who have been a similarly impressive team for much of the season. These are two of the top three NFL teams in overall point differential. All eyes will be tuned into this outstanding matchup on Christmas night, and surprisingly the 49ers are 5.5-point favorites.
Prediction: 49ers win 34-20