2023 NFL picks, score predictions for Week 10

After an absolutely dominant 14-2 record on NFL picks and predictions back in Week 8, it wasn't looking good in the early slate of Week 9 action. We started off with a 1-5 record on picks before slowly creeping back into it and ended Sunday with a very respectable 8-5 record in just straight-up picks. What does Week 10 have in store?

Four more teams have bye weeks in Week 10, including the two teams that played in last year's Super Bowl (Chiefs and Eagles). We'll pick another 14 games for this week including a handful of really underrated matchups as teams make their playoff pushes in the second half of the season.

2023 NFL picks and score predictions for Week 10

Week 10 byes: Chiefs (7-2), Rams (3-6), Dolphins (6-3), Eagles (8-1)

Carolina Panthers (1-7) @ Chicago Bears (2-7)

Thursday, November 9, 8:15 PM ET

This is just what the NFL world needs, isn't it? A matchup between the 1-7 Panthers and 2-7 Chicago Bears in prime time TV. I'm sure Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit are thrilled...

At any rate, questions remain as to whether Justin Fields will be coming back for the Bears anytime soon. The Bears have gotten a really good look at rookie Tyson Bagent, who has played solid for Chicago but has also not exactly prevented fans from wanting to see Fields back out there as soon as possible. We saw Fields on the sideline talking to Bagent during the game with a cast on his thumb, so that's obviously not a great sign, but he did get in his first practice this past week.

Given this is a short week, and the Bears don't have a bye until Week 13, it would make some sense to rest Fields one more game.

Carolina got their first win of the season a couple of weeks ago, but it wasn't the start of any sort of run, by any means. This team is struggling just to get by and develop Bryce Young right now, which must be disheartening considering what we've been seeing with the development of CJ Stroud in Houston.

Somewhat shockingly, the Bears are favored by 3.5 points. This one is the definition of a coin flip to me.

Prediction: Bears win 20-17

Indianapolis Colts (4-5) vs. New England Patriots (2-7)

Sunday, November 12, 9:30 AM ET (Frankfurt, Germany)

The Patriots are going to Germany this week to take on the Indianapolis Colts. Not that playing at home is much of an advantage for the Pats right now, but they'll take any advantage they can get. Having to go across the Atlantic to play this game in the NFL International series is probably not what Bill Belichick wants for his team at the moment, but maybe the change of scenery can provide some type of spark.

After all, nothing else is really working, is it?

The Patriots have the worst record in the AFC at 2-7. They are one of the worst offenses in the entire NFL this year. They are the epitome of dysfunction on that side of the ball and they're going up against a rather underrated Colts defense in this game.

The Colts, who are looking to improve to a shocking 5-5 record this week and stay in the thick of things in the competitive and fun AFC South.

The Colts got a much-needed win over the Carolina Panthers in Week 9 after dropping three straight games. Despite the Colts having dropped three straight games prior to Sunday's win over the Panthers, this team has the 7th-ranked scoring offense in the NFL right now.

Unless the Colts are turning the ball over a bunch in this game, I think they have enough firepower to outlast the Patriots right now. And I have absolutely no confidence in New England's offense.

Prediction: Colts win 24-16

Houston Texans (4-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-3)

Sunday, November 12, 1:00 PM ET

We must all take the time to stop and recognize the greatness of what CJ Stroud did on Sunday. For anyone who watched the Texans' matchup against the Buccaneers, you were witness to arguably the best performance of a rookie quarterback in NFL history.

Adam Schefter of ESPN narrates:;

It was a sensational game from Stroud, and more than just statistically. It was the type of performance from a young quarterback that gives a franchise confidence knowing they have solidified the most important position on the roster for the foreseeable future.

Given all that has transpired in Houston over the last three years, seeing Stroud do what he did against the Bucs and a really solid Tampa Bay defense was something to witness.

He'll be going up against another former Ohio State quarterback as the Texans travel to take on Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. Okay, the Ohio State thing is a little tongue in cheek. We know Burrow was one that got away from the Buckeyes program, but this is still must-see TV from a quarterback play perspective.

The Bengals have caught some fire lately and the Texans will give them a challenge, but I think the betting experts are right to project Cincinnati as a 7.5-point favorite in this matchup. That seems disrespectful to the Texans, who will fight hard in this game, but the Bengals are a legitimate AFC contender and I think they will flex that status in this one.

But will they cover?

Prediction: Bengals win 30-23

New Orleans Saints (5-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-4)

Sunday, November 12, 1:00 PM ET

Here comes one of the most fascinating games on the Week 10 NFL slate. I don't know if there is a tougher game to predict from a distance in Week 10 than this one because it's impossible to know what version of the Saints you're going to get on a given week.

It looked like the Saints' offense was really on track there for a couple of weeks, but then they really struggled against the Chicago Bears in Week 9 somewhat surprisingly and had to ride big plays from Taysom Hill on offense as well as a variety of turnovers from Bears QB Tyson Bagent to get the win.

In other words, it wasn't exactly a "convincing" win for the Saints, but good teams find ways to win games, even the ugly ones.

The Vikings, on the other hand, were incredibly impressive in Week 9. I don't know if I'm jaded or what, but Joshua Dobbs has been one of the most interesting stories of the year and deserves a ton of respect from NFL fans around the globe. Dobbs had barely gotten to know his teammates, barely even practiced with the team before getting on the field on Sunday and helped Minnesota score over 30 points and get their fourth-straight win.

Part of me wants to pick the Saints in this game because of their defense and even just the potential that the offense will bring their best on Sunday, but the other part of me would rather just pick Josh Dobbs and be willing to be wrong about it.

The Saints are only 2.5-point favorites despite the Vikings being without Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson...

Prediction: Vikings win 24-21

Green Bay Packers (3-5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)

Sunday, November 12, 1:00 PM ET

The Pittsburgh Steelers continue to be incredibly impressive, but in the worst way. Is that the right way to say it?

The Steelers are 5-3 this season, and clearly on their way to a playoff berth barring an unexpected losing streak. Mike Tomlin is actually allergic to losing records, it's a proven fact. It's crazy how this Steelers team galvanizes and comes together to win ball games when they are being so clearly carried by one side of the ball (defense).

Kenny Pickett already has six game-winning drives in his NFL career, so as inefficient as the Steelers' offense has been, Pickett has at least come up clutch when he's needed to. And now the Steelers are welcoming Jordan Love and the Packers into town for an AFC/NFC North clash.

The Packers got a much-needed win in Week 9 over the Los Angeles Rams, although considering it was Brett Rypien starting for the Rams, it's hard to really say much about it.

Hey, a win is a win. And the Packers will take it.

But going into Pittsburgh to face off against this Steelers defense? I just don't think I can keep picking against the Steelers at this point. In fact, I've got to apologize to Steelers fans out there who read these picks, although you've got to empathize with me a little bit. The Steelers offense is so weird week to week, but they somehow find ways to do just enough and the defense always puts them in positions to do so.

Steelers are 3.5-point favorites in this one.

Prediction: Steelers win 23-19

Tennessee Titans (3-5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)

Sunday, November 12, 1:00 PM ET

Just when you start to get a little bit of confidence in the Titans after Will Levis throws four touchdowns in his NFL debut and has their passing game going, they face off against the Steelers' defense and take a major step back.

But the Titans shouldn't feel too bad about it, because the Steelers do that to most teams they play against. I don't know where to go for this Week 10 matchup as a result of what we saw against the Steelers, however. In this AFC/NFC South clash, you're getting two teams that have shown some really nice things this season, but have also had some serious duds.

If Will Levis can play against the Bucs like he did against the Falcons, the Titans have a good shot in this one. But this Buccaneers defense, like the Steelers, has been legit for most of the season. And they can get after the QB.

Seeing the Buccaneers offense make a bunch of plays against the Houston Texans, you've got to have at least a bit of confidence in them here to come home and get a win after that tough loss to CJ Stroud and DeMeco Ryans.

This is one of nine games with a spread of 3.5 points or less, and the Bucs are only being favored by 1.5 points at home.

Prediction: Buccaneers win 23-20

San Francisco 49ers (5-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2)

Sunday, November 12, 1:00 PM ET

This is not the way the San Francisco 49ers wanted to come out of the bye week. Or the Jacksonville Jaguars for that matter. This is one of the best games on the Week 10 slate, and it features two teams who are coming off of Week 9 byes.

Let me just get out of the gates saying that I don't like teams coming from the West Coast to play on the East Coast in the 1:00 time slot. It just doesn't work great most of the time, at least that's what it seems like. Now, for the 49ers, perhaps there's an advantage coming off of a bye, or perhaps there's an advantage that this game is being played in November instead of September with the heat index and outrageous humidity.

Now that we've gotten the intangibles out of the way, how about this actual football game? The 49ers are struggling right now. They have lost three straight games after looking like arguably the most dominant team in the NFL. What's been going on? Well, it looks like the 49ers' offense has run into a buzzsaw of sorts. They have scored just 17 points in three straight games.

That's not a recipe for success. They're going to have to score more than 17 to beat the Jaguars, who have won five straight games and scored 30-plus points in two of their last three.

I don't think there's anything more to this as far as NFL picks are concerned other than I don't think the 49ers are going to lose a fourth straight game. Even traveling to Jacksonville for this one, I think we see the Niners get a much-needed win on the road.

Prediction: 49ers win 27-24

Cleveland Browns (5-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (7-2)

Sunday, November 12, 1:00 PM ET

Who is ready for a throwback AFC North November matchup?

The way we have seen both the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens play defense so far this season, with all due respect to each offense in this game, I think we're expecting this one to be rather low-scoring, aren't we?

Let's check in with our friends in Vegas...

The Ravens are favored by 5.5 points at home and the over-under is set at 38.5 total points in this game. A classic 21-17 AFC North showdown could be in the works.

The Cleveland Browns have been absolutely dominant at times this season defensively. They have allowed their opponent to score three or fewer points on three separate occasions, including this past weekend against the Cardinals where they made Clayton Tune likely reconsider whether or not he wants to be an NFL quarterback.

The Ravens have been equally impressive this year, boasting the top-ranked scoring defense in the league at under 14 points per game, including four games already where they allowed just nine points or less to their opponent.

I think if this game were being played in Cleveland, I would have a little more confidence in the Browns. They have also been dealing with a variety of injuries this year and the Ravens just look like one of the most well-rounded teams in the league. There's a reason why they're favored by 5.5 points at home in a game where they're playing the no. 3 scoring defense in the league.

I don't know if there's a better "sum of its parts" team in the NFL right now than the Baltimore Ravens.

Prediction: Ravens win 21-17

Atlanta Falcons (4-5) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-8)

Sunday, November 12, 4:05 PM ET

If Clayton Tune is starting this game at QB for the Cardinals, you can take the Falcons and the under (41.5 points). However, it appears as though there is a legitimate chance that Kyler Murray will make his 2023 debut for the Cardinals in Week 10...

As a matter of fact, as this post was being written, Jonathan Gannon even announced Murray will start against the Falcons.

Murray's return to the field helps soften the blow at least a little bit, but the idea of the Arizona Cardinals trotting out Clayton Tune against one of the NFL's best defenses this past week is asinine. It's crazy it came to that point. How is it possible that Joshua Dobbs was "benched" for Tune at all?

I think Jeff Darlington of NFL Network summed this up pretty perfectly with a strongly-worded Tweet during Sunday's action:

I'm really not sure how the Arizona Cardinals can justify trading Dobbs, unless they say they were simply doing Dobbs (and the Minnesota Vikings) a huge favor. Putting Dobbs in Minnesota has put him in a situation to potentially maximize his financial earnings going forward, but it's also put the Cardinals in a really weird spot. Clayton Tune showed us all against the Cleveland Browns that he's nowhere near ready to step foot on an NFL field in a legitimate game.

So, will the NFL penalize the Cardinals for "tanking"? Ultimately, we won't know for some time. What we do know is that fantasy football players everywhere hate Arthur Smith's guts. Bijan Robinson has played just over 65 percent of the Falcons' snaps this season, and his usage seems so unpredictable week-to-week. He has gotten 25 total touches in the last three weeks combined.

Perhaps the Falcons will find a way to actually involve their best players against arguably the worst team in the NFL.

With the added wrinkle of Kyler Murray playing, should we all change our projections? Even with news about Murray, Vegas is holding firm at the Falcons as 1.5-point favorites. I might change my projection for fun.

Prediction: Cardinals win 21-18

Detroit Lions (6-2) @ Los Angeles Chargers (4-4)

Sunday, November 12, 4:05 PM ET

The Detroit Lions are looking to make it a third straight win against an AFC West opponent as they take on the Los Angeles Chargers, the third AFC West team on the docket for them this season after already beating the Kansas City Chiefs in the season-opener and the Las Vegas Raiders in their most recent game on Monday Night Football.

The Lions are playing some really good football right now and they're winning in a variety of different ways. They have a top-10 offense, once again, but the Lions are getting off the field on third down defensively as well. They are the 3rd-best 3rd-down defense in the NFL so far this season. After putting up nearly 500 yards of offense against the Raiders, you can't help but wonder if this game against the Chargers will be a shootout.

With that being said, the Chargers' offense didn't exactly give off "shootout" vibes with their offensive performance against the New York Jets. Robert Saleh has taken pride in "embarrassing" opposing quarterbacks this season, and he kind of did the same to Justin Herbert...

The Los Angeles Chargers' defense was almost more effective offensively than the offense. Does that even make sense? It is what it is.

At any rate, I just don't think the Chargers are the better team here, even playing at home.

Prediction: Lions win 26-24

New York Giants (2-7) @ Dallas Cowboys (5-3)

Sunday, November 12, 4:25 PM ET

Easily the biggest spread of the week right here. The Dallas Cowboys are favored by 15.5 points against the New York Giants, and this feels like a game in which you might be likely to see Cooper Rush at some point.

The Dallas Cowboys played one of their better games of the season so far in terms of hanging with a great team in a tight situation, but they ultimately made a few too many mistakes and fell short. Despite having three losses this season, I still think Dallas is one of the best all-around teams in the NFL and I don't think there's really any chance of this team not getting back in the win column at home against the Giants.

The Giants just lost Daniel Jones for the season with a knee injury, but frankly, even with Daniel Jones, they weren't playing well anyway. This team is in need of being gutted, and unfortunately for them, the entire brain trust was hoodwinked last year by the team overachieving and winning a playoff game.

I think long-term changes are needed for this Giants team at the QB position, they need to figure out the offensive line, and they're going to have to reset their offensive playmaker arsenal.

But that's a conversation for another day. Cowboys by a hundred.

Prediction: Cowboys win 34-9

Washington Commanders (4-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (5-3)

Sunday, November 12, 4:25 PM ET

This game between the Commanders and Seahawks has turned into a rather critical game in short order for both of these teams.

The Seahawks are coming off of an absolutely brutal loss this past week in Baltimore, which is unfortunately to be expected. Going from the West Coast to play on the East Coast in the 1:00 PM ET window is brutal for those teams, especially when you look at Baltimore's historic home record.

Seattle will gladly take a return to Lumen Field this week to face off against the Commanders, and this should be a fascinating matchup that could turn into the shootout of the week.

The Commanders were sellers at the NFL trade deadline and, of course, came out against the Patriots on the road and gutted out a tough win. With an over-under of 44.5 points in this game, the betting experts are expecting this to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week overall and I could definitely see that happening.

These two teams feature so many weapons at the receiver position, but are you going to get the best version of either QB? Both Geno Smith and Sam Howell have shown they will put the ball into harm's way at times, and Smith was particularly lost on Sunday against Baltimore.

I'm banking on him coming back home this week and playing it safe, with the Seahawks getting back on the board.

Prediction: Seahawks win 26-23

New York Jets (4-4) @ Las Vegas Raiders (4-5)

Sunday, November 12, 8:20 PM ET

The Las Vegas Raiders had the vibe of a miserable class that finally got a substitute teacher for a day in their win over the New York Giants on Sunday.

As much dysfunction as we've seen from the Raiders this season, how is it possible that this team has four wins already? Honestly, good for the Raiders, I guess.

This week, they welcome the New York Jets to town and Robert Saleh's defense has done a number on some of the better quarterbacks in the league so far this season. How did he put it? He said he's "embarrassed" the gauntlet of QBs the Jets have faced?

I don't know if Aidan O'Connell is going to be shaking in his boots, but you can't help but keep that in the back of your mind as you go about predicting this game. The Jets have been surprisingly resilient thanks to the way their defense has played, and the folks in Vegas like them to come away with a win in this one, favoring them by 2.5 points.

I tend to agree that you've got to favor the Jets ever so slightly, even with the Raiders playing at home and coming off of a really strong offensive performance against the Giants. You're going to see a much different look when you face off against the Jets this week. I have confidence that Robert Saleh's defense is going to make O'Connell look like a rookie, but this game ultimately will come down to which side can run the ball better and make fewer mistakes.

Shockingly, I might take the Raiders right now.

Prediction: Raiders win 19-16

Denver Broncos (3-5) @ Buffalo Bills (5-4)

Monday, November 13, 8:15 PM ET

This Monday Night Football matchup doesn't look as good on paper as it probably will be. The Denver Broncos won two straight games as they headed into their Week 9 bye, including their first victory over the Kansas City Chiefs in over eight years.

Eight years...

It was an emotional win for all of Broncos Country, and it will be emotional against Buffalo on Monday night with Von Miller, a Broncos legend, suiting up for the Bills in his first-ever game against Denver.

Can the Broncos keep that winning feeling going? When the schedule came out, this game against Buffalo on the road seemed like you could almost put it in pen as a loss. Playing on the road against a contender? That's tough. But the way the Broncos have played lately on defense and the way we've seen the Bills go up and down all year, you can't help but wonder if there might be an upset in the works.

We've just seen Buffalo lose yet another game this season, a tough loss on the road to the Bengals. The betting experts are not riding the Denver Broncos wave, favoring the Bills at home by 7.5 points with an over-under of 47 total points. So they're not really expecting Denver's defense to keep momentum going, either.

Dating back to his last 13 years in New Orleans, Sean Payton teams were 10-3 coming out of the bye week...Could this be an upset?

Prediction: Broncos win 27-24

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