Another week of the 2023 NFL season has already come and gone. In Week 4, I undoubtedly got a little too cute with a handful of picks, trying to call a New England Patriots upset over Dallas (which was the worst pick of the week for me) as well as trying to call a Packers upset over the Lions on Thursday night. So it goes with NFL picks and predictions, right?
We always encourage a grain of salt with every single one of these picks because the NFL has been about as unpredictable as you could expect through the first month of action. Heading into Week 5, we’re starting to figure out some teams that are worse than we thought (sorry, Bengals) and teams that are way better than we thought (Texans, Rams).
We’re looking to bounce back with our Week 5 NFL picks and predictions. Let’s waste no more times and get to this week’s slate of games.
2023 NFL picks and predictions for Week 5 games
Week 5 byes: Browns, Chargers, Seahawks, Buccaneers
Chicago Bears (0-4) @ Washington Commanders (2-2)
Thursday, October 5, 8:15 PM ET
The Chicago Bears and their fans have to be absolutely heartbroken after what transpired on Sunday against the Denver Broncos. The Bears held a 28-7 lead over Denver in the second half. Justin Fields threw for 300 yards for the first time in his NFL career (335, to be exact). Fields had four touchdown passes. Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson led a Bears rushing attack which ran for 171 yards on the Broncos.
Chicago had it all clicking against the porous Denver Broncos defense, which allowed 70 points the week before to the Miami Dolphins, only to watch their lead slip away in the second half.
The Bears’ defense – not the greatest in the league itself – gave up two second-half touchdowns and Justin Fields got the ball stripped from him by Nik Bonitto, and the Broncos took it back for a touchdown.
Chicago has to have a very short memory because they go to Washington in Week 5 on Thursday night to face off against a Commanders team that took the reigning NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles to the brink in Week 4. The Commanders have had some clunkers this season, but when their offense is hot, they are one of the most exciting offenses in the league.
I think we see the Commanders take this one on Thursday night.
Prediction: Commanders win 27-24
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) @ Buffalo Bills (3-1)
Sunday, October 8, 9:30 AM ET (London)
If this has ever happened before, someone is going to have to correct me. I don’t think I’ve ever seen the Jaguars – or any other NFL team, for that matter – play two straight games overseas. The Jaguars have sort of made London their home away from home in recent years but this is technically a “road” game for them. The way the NFL organized it is very odd.
How can this be a “home” game for the Bills when the Jaguars are the resident team in London, and they were just there the week before? It seems like a massive competitive advantage for the Jaguars to have already been in London for a week, and for the Bills to have a home game against a quality AFC opponent taken away from them.
But I digress.
The Jaguars and Bills both won in Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season, and they both got impressive showings from their defense. Buffalo’s defense managed to slow down a Miami offense which scored 70 points the week prior. The Jaguars’ defense got a touchdown on a pick-six off of Falcons QB Desmond Ridder.
Buffalo might be getting pass rusher Von Miller back for this game as well, as Miller is eligible to come off of IR.
Regardless, the biggest storyline in this game will obviously be the quarterback matchup of Trevor Lawrence and Josh Allen, two of the bright young stars at the position in today’s NFL. We saw Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense firing on all cylinders last week against the Dolphins, and I think they’re going to keep things rolling in London.
The biggest question I have is how badly affected the Bills will be with the Jaguars having the advantage of an entire extra week in London.
Prediction: Bills win 31-23
Houston Texans (2-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (2-2)
Sunday, October 8, 1:00 PM ET
Through the first month of the season, the Houston Texans are unsurprisingly one of the more surprisingly good teams in the league. Okay, that doesn’t make sense. What I mean is this – before the season, you could have seen the Texans showing their talent and youth at the same time. Meaning, we might have seen them play well in games, but likely still lose.
Through four games, they are playing well and winning more games than expected. That’s a testament to the job being done by new head coach DeMeco Ryans and his staff as well as the progression of rookie quarterback CJ Stroud.
Through four games this season, Stroud has been sensational. He has thrown for over 1,200 yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions so far. Stroud is spreading the ball around, Nico Collins is finally living up to the potential many saw in him, and the Texans look quite good after a big win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 4.
The Atlanta Falcons seem to be on a different trajectory entirely despite having the same record as Houston up to this point. A nice 2-0 start to the season has really turned bitter quickly for the Falcons, who have lost games to the Lions and Jaguars consecutively, and in unimpressive fashion.
I’m liking this Texans bandwagon right now. CJ Stroud is playing really well, but the Falcons have shown this season that they are quite a bit tougher than we’ve seen the last couple of years. In games like this, for NFL picks and predictions, I look to the oddsmakers to find out what they’re thinking. They have the Falcons at home at -1.5 favorites.
I could be sold either way, but I’m going to ride the wave the Texans are on.
Prediction: Texans win 24-23
Carolina Panthers (0-4) @ Detroit Lions (3-1)
Sunday, October 8, 1:00 PM ET
Everyone was really excited to see the Detroit Lions this season after the way they finished the 2022-23 campaign. I was worried that too many in the media were overhyping the Lions and that they weren’t going to be able to match or even come close to expectations, but they have.
Not only did the Lions start off with a signature in on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs, but they are currently 3-1 and sitting in first place in the NFC North. They are looking good both offensively and defensively, and substantially improved in the latter area.
Defensive improvement was essentially out of the gates for the Lions this season, as their defensive struggles for the first half of last season likely ended up being the difference between the team making the playoffs and watching them from home.
Playing at home this week against the Carolina Panthers, the Lions have a chance to prove how good of a team they truly are. Good teams beat the bad ones, especially when they’re playing at home. Carolina has been bad this season, evidenced by their 0-4 record, but they’re going to be hungry to get that first win of the Frank Reich/Bryce Young era.
Detroit just has too many ways to beat you right now. Offensively, they can be dynamic as a passing team or running team. They have a strong defense. They have one of the best offensive lines in football. To me, I think the Lions are clearly the right choice for NFL picks here in this game, and oddsmakers agree.
The oopening lines have the Lions at 8.5-point favorites to start the week.
Prediction: Lions win 31-19
Tennessee Titans (2-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (2-2)
Sunday, October 8, 1:00 PM ET
Are we going to see Jonathan Taylor this week for the Indianapolis Colts? That would be fascinating given the team’s current state, and Taylor will contractually be obligated to play in the game. Maybe he can catch some of the good vibes right now with the Colts, who have been one of the more exciting 2-2 teams in the NFL so far this season.
Rooke quarterback Anthony Richardson has the Colts playing really well offensively, or at least, they are fun to watch on that side of the ball with him out there on the field. Richardson is one of the most dynamic players at the quarterback position in the NFL right now, and the potential addition of Jonathan Taylor is really exciting.
But Taylor obviously has to want to be out there. And the Colts obviously stand a much better chance of getting a divisional win at home with Taylor in the lineup than without him.
The Titans, meanwhile, are once again such a difficult team to figure out. They are coming off of a win against the Cincinnati Bengals this past week, but what are we supposed to make of that? It looks like the ghost of the Bengals out there this season and I don’t think anyone is really willing to stake their reputation on making definitive statements about the Titans right now.
With that being said, this game feels like a bit of a toss-up. We could see Mike Vrabel’s defense make life difficult for a rookie quarterback, or we could see Anthony Richardson join forces with Jonathan Taylor to push the Colts to 3-2.
Prediction: Colts win 27-22
New York Giants (1-3) @ Miami Dolphins (3-1)
Sunday, October 8, 1:00 PM ET
The NFL is crazy, isn’t it?
The Miami Dolphins scored a whopping 70 points against the Denver Broncos in Week 3. They came out against the Buffalo Bills in Week 4 and allowed 48 points in a loss. You just never know what you’re going to get week-to-week in this league, do you?
The Dolphins are still one of the best teams in the NFL. A little butt-kicking courtesy of the Buffalo Bills isn’t going to sway my opinion of the Dolphins this season, especially not with a home matchup coming up against the New York Giants. Unfortunately, this is one of those NFL picks that I almost feel overly certain about.
I feel like the Giants don’t stand a chance against the Dolphins in this one, going on the road, playing against one of the most high-octane offenses in the NFL. If this game gets to a shootout, I don’t think the Giants can keep up. Even if this game ends up being a defensive battle, I think the Dolphins simply have too much offensive firepower.
We have seen so many weapons emerge for the Dolphins this season, whether we’re talking about rookie running back Devon Achane or the resurgence of Raheem Mostert. The passing game for Miami has so many weapons and so much speed for teams to have to deal with.
I think you almost have to pencil in the Giants for a loss in this one. I don’t think they’re giving up 70 points, but if they turn the ball over early in this game, we’ve seen how games can get out of hand for this New York team already in 2023.
Prediction: Dolphins win 33-16
New Orleans Saints (2-2) @ New England Patriots (1-3)
Sunday, October 8, 1:00 PM ET
This might be the NFL’s true clunker of the week on the Week 5 schedule. The New England Patriots are coming off of a very bad loss against the Dallas Cowboys in which quarterback Mac Jones was benched. Why was he benched? Well, he threw a pair of interceptions and barely completed 57 percent of his passes.
It was a horrendous showing against Dallas for the New England Patriots offense, which has been horrendous most of the year in general. They are averaging 13.8 points per game through the first four weeks of the season, and although the New Orleans Saints haven’t exactly been a juggernaut offensively (15.5 points per game), they have arguably been a lot more explosive than the Patriots.
The opening line on this game is a projected over/under of 39.5 points, which seems rather generous for the way these two offenses have played thus far in 2023. It’s certainly not a vintage Drew Brees vs. Tom Brady type of showdown that’s about to go down in New England on Sunday.
This game could come down to which team can make fewer mistakes offensively, and after what we saw in Week 4, I’m not sure which way to lean. I think any game that is played in New England, you tend to lean toward taking Bill Belichick and company. They have been obviously one of the NFL’s best home teams under Belichick, but most of that was done with Tom Brady and that dominant 20-year dynasty.
I still think the Patriots have a good enough defense to win a low-scoring game at home here. It’s hard picking them coming off of the type of drubbing we saw them take against Dallas in Week 4, but I’ll back the Pats at home in Week 5.
Prediction: Patriots win 17-13
Baltimore Ravens (3-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)
Sunday, October 8, 1:00 PM ET
The Baltimore Ravens will have done something pretty impressive by the end of this game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. By the end of this game, win or lose, they will be done with divisional road games in 2023. So there’s at least that. The Ravens have already gone on the road and beaten the Bengals. They went on the road and beat the Browns.
Can they complete the AFC North tri fecta and go on the road and beat the Pittsburgh Steelers?
With the way the Ravens defense has been playing so far this season, I don’t see why not. Especially with the way the Steelers’ offense has been sputtering this year, and the passing game has been particularly atrocious. Somehow, their 737 passing yards in four games doesn’t rank dead last in the NFL.
The Ravens’ pass defense has been pretty great so far this season as well, and Baltimore will have a chance to feast in Week 5 against yet another divisional opponent. Lamar Jackson will present the Steelers with their most difficult task yet. He’s got eight total touchdowns through four games and is completing over 74 percent of his passes.
If anyone can do it, I guess it would be TJ Watt, right? He has six sacks and 13 QB hits in the Steelers’ first four games. But I just don’t know if Pittsburgh can hang with the Ravens the way they’re rolling right now.
Prediction: Ravens win 22-13
Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) @ Los Angeles Rams (2-2)
Sunday, October 8, 4:05 PM ET
We really can’t get a good beat on the Los Angeles Rams right now. The Rams, at times, have looked like they are back to playoff contending form. At other times, they look like a really young team missing a couple of pieces. What are we going to see when they come home to face off against the reigning NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles in Week 5?
I will say, the Eagles look a little bit more vulnerable than anyone probably expected coming into this season. They just got taken to the wire in Week 4 against the Washington Commanders and they’ve had some close calls besides that in Week 1 against the New England Patriots and then Week 2 against the Minnesota Vikings.
Don’t get me wrong – the Eagles are still a great team and a potent offense capable of going off at any moment, but do they have what it takes to keep up with a Rams offense that has also been quite explosive this season?
We know they have the pass rush to get the job done, which could be the biggest key in this game going in Philadelphia’s favor. The Rams need to protect Matthew Stafford, who is dealing with a hip injury after their Week 4 win against the Colts. He’ll play against the Eagles, but how many hits will he be able to take?
He’ll have to get the ball out quickly to rookie sensation Puka Nacua, and the Eagles will not only have to deal with the star rookie, but also the return of Cooper Kupp to the Rams’ offense.
I like the Rams to pull off the upset at home and remind everyone that they are contenders in the NFC.
Prediction: Rams win 34-31
Cincinnati Bengals (1-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-3)
Sunday, October 8, 4:05 PM ET
This is a game between two of the most surprising teams in the NFL so far this season, but for very different reasons. First, we need to talk about the Cincinnati Bengals, and what a disaster they have been so far. It sounds like Joe Burrow is going to play in this game and continue to play. I don’t think the Bengals are going to put Burrow on IR until they absolutely have to, or if they are eliminated from contention.
But Burrow could probably use some time off the field. The Bengals’ offense just doesn’t look right, and they are averaging 12.3 points per game, dead last in the NFL through four weeks. That’s not going to play well against an Arizona defense that has been playing with its collective hair on fire so far this year under new head coach Jonathan Gannon.
The Cardinals are 1-3, just like the Bengals, but I would say they are much more impressive so far this season. Arizona has Josh Dobbs operating their offense quite well at this point, and they have shown more fight in the first four weeks than I think anyone expected. They obviously ended up getting beat pretty handily by the 49ers this past weekend, but the Cardinals were competitive throughout and they are very well-coached.
Now, heading into Week 5, Joshua Dobbs seems to have found a true WR1 to get the ball to in rookie Michael Wilson. Wilson was outstanding in the Cardinals’ Week 4 loss, but they’ve obviously found another go-to target besides Marquise Brown.
I have been projecting the Bengals to find a way to get back on track for a handful of weeks, but at this point, I’m just not sure it’s going to happen. I kind of like the Cardinals in this one, even with the Bengals favored by three.
Prediction: Cardinals win 23-20
New York Jets (1-3) @ Denver Broncos (1-3)
Sunday, October 8, 4:25 PM ET
The New York Jets almost pulled off an upset against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night, but they fell just short and couldn’t quite make enough plays offensively. But perhaps the most shocking aspect of the Jets’ loss to the Chiefs was the play of quarterback Zach Wilson. Wilson was hitting throws, completing 28-of-39 passes with a pair of touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 105.2 QB rating.
It was genuinely one of the best performances we’ve seen from him in a Jets uniform, and perhaps it’s a sign of things to come. Maybe he’s turned a corner. I guess we’re fixing to find out with the Jets traveling to Denver in Week 5 for the Nathaniel Hackett Bowl.
The Broncos have given up an unbelievable amount of offense to their opponents in the last three weeks, including over 1,200 yards of offense in the last two weeks. The Broncos had better hope that players like Justin Simmons and K’Waun Williams are available in Week 6, even against a Jets offense that has struggled some, because they need all the help they can get.
The Broncos made Sam Howell, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Fields look like they should be on the Mount Rushmore of all-time great quarterbacks. They simply aren’t doing anything well enough defensively. Offensively, however, the Broncos have been worlds better than they were a season ago. Russell Wilson, in particular, has been outstanding.
Wilson has nine touchdown passes in four games this season, and only Kirk Cousins (11) has more. I think the Broncos can find a way to build on their big comeback win against the Bears in Week 4 and get a much-needed win at home against the Jets here.
Prediction: Broncos win 27-21
Kansas City Chiefs (3-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-3)
Sunday, October 8, 4:25 PM ET
The Kansas City Chiefs lost the season opener, but they find themselves having won three straight games heading into their road trip to Minnesota to face off against a struggling Vikings team that just won its first game of the season. The Chiefs struggled a little bit with the Jets on Sunday night and that was perhaps to be expected, at least a little bit.
Robert Saleh’s defense gives even the best offenses in the league fits.
The Chiefs found a way to win with their running game kind of leading the charge against the Jets. Isiah Pacheco made some huge plays and Kansas City was able to do just enough to beat the Jets by three. But their explosive passing attack is likely going to need to make more appearances against the Vikings, who are capable of scoring at will.
Don’t let the 1-3 record fool you – the Vikings can light up the scoreboard, and the Kansas City Chiefs don’t have anyone (nor does any team, really) that can hang consistently with Justin Jefferson.
Minnesota is no longer in desperation mode with a win under their belt, but they are going to be in a really tough spot if they can’t find a way to beat the defending champs at home in Week 5. The problem is, even if Kansas City’s offense is struggling a little bit, they seem to have a legitimate top five defense this season. The return of Chris Jones has been so crucial for Kansas City, to no one’s surprise, and the Vikings – who have struggled on the interior offensive line – will have their hands full there.
After grinding out a tough win against the Jets, I think the Chiefs find a way to beat the Vikings by at least a touchdown.
Prediction: Chiefs win 33-23
Dallas Cowboys (3-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-0)
Sunday, October 8, 8:20 PM ET
Here it is, the NFL’s game of the week. The San Francisco 49ers are such a well-oiled machine at this point, and the Cowboys’ shocking loss in Week 3 to the Arizona Cardinals is the only thing standing between this matchup being a battle between two teams that have virtually dominated every game they’ve played in this year. The Cowboys are fresh off of yet another blowout win in Week 4 against the New England Patriots, and they are getting it done in every phase of the game. It’s going to be fascinating to see how Dallas’s defense is able to hold up against the unreal playmakers the San Francisco 49ers boast.
The 49ers have it all. They have speed, they dominate on the offensive line, they have depth, they can make big plays downfield, they make big plays after the catch, and they have been dominant on defense. For my money, the 49ers have the most well-constructed roster in the entire NFL right now and they are averaging nearly a 20-point victory every single week.
The consistency has been impressive. They have scored 30-plus points in every single game this year. They allowed 20 points only once, and it came against the Los Angeles Rams back in Week 2.
The 49ers and Cowboys are such an interesting matchup right now but it’s going to be up to the Dallas pass rush to create havoc in this game. They need to get Brock Purdy out of rhythm, or force him to make plays off-script. I don’t know if there’s really any “stopping” the 49ers’ offense, but if you can cause Purdy to make some mistakes, you get those extra opportunities for your offense and give yourself a chance.
I don’t want to sell Dallas short in this game. They have the no. 1 defense in the NFL right now. I’m just not sure they can hang with the 49ers on the road without a more dynamic passing attack.
Prediction: 49ers win 31-24
Green Bay Packers (2-2) @ Las Vegas Raiders (1-3)
Monday, October 9, 8:15 PM ET
It might not be the highest-profile reunion matchup of the week, but Davante Adams facing off against his old team is at least a little bit interesting. The biggest question at the time of this writing is whether or not Jimmy Garoppolo will be healthy enough to play in the game, or whether that will matter at all.
The Raiders obviously gave the Chargers a tough game in Week 4 despite the fact that Khalil Mack had six sacks for the Chargers, and despite the fact that Aidan O’Connell was making his first career NFL start.
O’Connell ended up making a critical mistake late against the Chargers that cost them the game, but at least we know that he can’t possibly face more pressure than what he saw against the Chargers on Sunday, right?
The pass rush of the Green Bay Packers is this team’s calling card right now. They have ways to bring pressure from the interior, from the edge, blitzing – you name it. They have one of the best and fastest defensive front seven groups in the entire NFL. So whether it’s O’Connell out there or Jimmy Garoppolo, someone is going to be under pressure.
The oddsmakers have the Packers as favorites in this game, but not by much. With the Raiders playing at home, this game is very much a toss-up and the one area of the Packers’ defense that we’ve seen get gashed a little bit this season is against the run. Against the Lions, David Montgomery was able to have a ton of success, just wearing that defense down.
The Raiders need to feed Josh Jacobs the ball in this one and limit mistakes offensively. If they do that, I think they can win a low-scoring game at home. The more opportunities they give Jordan Love, the more I like the Packers.
Prediction: Raiders win 23-20