It feels weird to even type it out, but the first month of the 2024 NFL season is in the books. And we've had plenty of big surprises already throughout the month of September setting us up for an exciting second "quarter" of the 2024 NFL season here in Week 5.
As is typically the case, NFL picks and score predictions are a little more hit or miss early in the season as you continue to try and get teams figured out, but this season as a whole has been pretty unpredictable each week, which adds to the fun. Most teams have at least one win at this point and two-thirds of the league has at least two wins in the first month of the year.
Who is winning in Week 5? We're going through every game on the Week 5 schedule and making our NFL picks and score predictions.
Week 5 teams on BYE: Lions, Eagles, Chargers, Titans
2024 NFL picks and score predictions for Week 5 games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (2-2)
Thursday, October 3 (8:15 PM ET)
The last handful of weeks have been extremely impressive for the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons just won on a late 58-yard field goal from one of the team’s MVPs so far this season – kicker Younghoe Koo. They nearly upset the Kansas City Chiefs last week and the Falcons had a nice come-from-behind win the week before that against the Eagles.
I like what we’re seeing from the Falcons overall, but the offense is still taking some time to truly click. We saw some evidence of struggle against the Chiefs and again against the Saints. But the Falcons managed to sore 26 points without having a single touchdown on offense, as crazy as that may seem. They are going to need to continue to be opportunistic as the Buccaneers come to town on a short week.
The Bucs were absolutely rocked at home in Week 3 against the Broncos but came out with a chip on their shoulders in Week 4 against the Eagles. Baker Mayfield finally got some good help from his running game in Week 4 and Bucky Irving may truly be hitting a stride. As encouraging as the Falcons have been overall the last few weeks, the Bucs are just too dangerous offensively in this one.
The Falcons are 1.5-point favorites at home here but I’m taking the Bucs by at least four.
Prediction: Buccaneers win 27-23
New York Jets (2-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (4-0)
Sunday, October 6 (9:30 AM ET); Game being played in London
To say it’s been a weird couple of weeks for the New York Jets might be an understatement. We saw the Jets get on the board with a win in Week 2. We saw them absolutely dominate the New England Patriots in Week 3, especially offensively as it looked like vintage Aaron Rodgers was back out there on the field.
But it wasn’t to be in Week 4. With rainy conditions, the Jets’ offense mustered up only nine points against a rather dominant Denver Broncos defense and Aaron Rodgers was limping around late in the game after being hit a whopping 14 times by the Denver pass rush. The Jets have a rough turnaround after a loss in Week 4 with a trip to London and a matchup against the Minnesota Vikings on deck.
Sam Darnold has played like a legitimate MVP candidate for the Vikings so far this season and that continued in Week 4 with another hat-trick of touchdown passes. Darnold has thrown a whopping 11 touchdown passes through the first four games of the year for the Vikings so far and he’s got his skill players out there playing really well.
The Vikings are 4-0 this season and even though they’ve had some tighter games, they absolutely have the weapons to go out to London and get to 5-0 against the Jets, who looked rough this past weekend.
Prediction: Vikings win 26-23
Carolina Panthers (1-3) @ Chicago Bears (2-2)
Sunday, October 6 (1:00 PM ET)
When the NFL schedule was released, there was at least a little bit of hope that this game would be a matchup between the last two #1 overall picks in the NFL Draft.
That wasn’t meant to be, apparently.
The Carolina Panthers have come to life a little bit the last two weeks offensively, including a win back in Week 3 against the Las Vegas Raiders, with Andy Dalton at the helm. That will continue in Week 5 as they now travel to Chicago to take on 2024 #1 overall pick Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears, who are coming off of a win at home in Week 4 against the Los Angeles Rams.
The Panthers are going to be going up against a very underrated Chicago Bears defense this coming week, and as good as that Bears defense has been, I actually think the Panthers could possibly go into Chicago and get an upset win this week. The Panthers have been one of the most blitz-heavy teams in the NFL so far this season (3rd-highest blitz rate in the league) and although they don’t have the best pass rush win rate in the NFL, Caleb Williams has taken at least three sacks in each of his last three games.
The Bears are going to need their playmakers to make plays in this one. The offense can’t fall flat after getting the running game going with D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson in Week 4.
If Chicago comes out and plays more efficient offensively as we saw in Week 4, then they should be able to outlast the Panthers even in a bit of a low-scoring game. But if Chicago’s defense has any issues or breakdowns this week, the Panthers are going to cover the 3.5 points the Bears are currently favored by with relative ease.
I want to pick Andy Dalton and the Panthers on the road here, but I just don’t have the courage to do it. I’m going to take the Bears in a low-scoring affair at home.
Prediction: Bears win 18-15
Baltimore Ravens (2-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)
Sunday, October 6 (1:00 PM ET)
After a couple of narrow losses to start the 2024 season, I think a lot of people were pushing the panic button on the Baltimore Ravens a little prematurely. Losing on the road to the Chiefs in Week 1 (by an inch) was understandable, but starting off 0-2 has historically not been good for really anyone.
The Ravens have bounced back the last two weeks with tough wins on the road against the Cowboys and at home against the Buffalo Bills, who were previously maybe the hottest team in the entire league. With the addition of Derrick Henry and the emergence of players like Isaiah Likely, the Ravens’ offense has added dimensions and Lamar Jackson has been operating really well.
Defensively, however, the Ravens are coming off of maybe their most impressive effort yet. Can they keep that going in Week 5 on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals? The Bengals finally got a win in Week 4 with their backs against the wall, but are they going to be able to sustain that in Week 5?
The Bengals couldn’t be getting the Ravens at a worse time, as if there would be a convenient time to face them. This is going to be a tough game, even with Cincinnati playing at home. The Ravens are 2.5-point favorites on the road.
Prediction: Ravens win 24-21
Miami Dolphins (1-3) @ New England Patriots (1-3)
Sunday, October 6 (1:00 PM ET)
As we expected in Week 4, the New England Patriots came out as flat as you can possibly look against the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers welcomed the Patriots into their house gladly on Sunday and systematically kicked them to the curb, leaving the Patriots with so many more questions going forward.
But the answer to the quarterback question is still Jacoby Brissett, according to head coach Jerod Mayo, who has dug his feet in favor of Brissett. The Patriots allowed another six sacks on Sunday against the 49ers. They converted just five of a whopping 16 third-down attempts. The Patriots can’t run the ball effectively, they can’t throw the ball effectively.
Even for a team like the Miami Dolphins that is obviously struggling without Tua Tagovailoa at the helm, this could be a “get right” game on the road in Week 5.
Even with some of the best playmakers in the NFL, the Dolphins just don’t have enough at the quarterback position to be favored in a game like this. Tyler Huntley didn’t even reach 100 yards passing in the Dolphins’ Monday night loss against the Tennessee Titans, who looked like one of the worst teams in the league coming into the week.
The issue is, the Patriots really have a lot to get going. They have struggled keeping Jacoby Brissett clean, they’ve struggled to run the ball, and they might have the worst set of offensive skill players in the NFL right now.
This is shaping up to be a barn-burner.
Prediction: Patriots win 13-12
Cleveland Browns (1-3) @ Washington Commanders (3-1)
Sunday, October 6 (1:00 PM ET)
As easy as it will be to pile on the Cleveland Browns after what we’ve seen the first month of this season, we have to start off by talking about the outstanding job the Washington Commanders have been doing so far.
I personally felt like there was just way too much “new” for the Commanders this year for them to have early success like we’ve seen. New ownership, a new GM, a new head coach, a new offensive system, a new roster, and a new young quarterback coming in through the NFL Draft. That’s just so much to take on, but hat’s off to Dan Quinn and his staff for the job they’ve done so far.
Jayden Daniels is playing like a legitimate MVP candidate. The Commanders have scored a whopping 80 points in their last two games, and Daniels has almost as many total touchdowns as he does incomplete passes in that timeframe.
The Commanders are in position to really take a commanding lead in the NFC East this week with a win at home against the Browns, and that fan base is going to be hyped unlike any other time in recent memory.
The Browns, on the other hand, have been one of the NFL’s biggest disappointments through the first month of the year. Deshaun Watson has been horrible for much of the year, but he’s not getting enough help from Amari Cooper, who has led the NFL in dropped passes so far. The Browns are 1-3 despite that tremendous defensive talent and it just felt like they were in for a major letdown after outkicking their coverage and winning 11 games last season.
The Commanders’ offense is, dare I say, too dynamic for the Browns to keep up with them right now.
Prediction: Commanders win 27-19
Indianapolis Colts (2-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)
Sunday, October 6 (1:00 PM ET)
Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson took exception to having to answer questions about whether or not he was on the proverbial hot seat after his team’s latest loss, putting the Jaguars in an all too familiar position at the bottom of the NFL at 0-4 through the first month of the season.
Frankly, Pederson should be on the hot seat. After we saw the Jaguars look like one of the NFL’s hottest young teams in 2022, they came out swinging at the start of 2023, but whizzed a golden opportunity down their legs and missed the playoffs completely. This season, we expected them to turn things around with a healthy Trevor Lawrence, but that’s been anything but the case.
Jacksonville needs a bounce-back game in the worst possible way but they are only 2.5-point favorites at home against the Colts in Week 5.
The Colts are coming off of a much-needed win to get to 2-2 and keep some pace with the Houston Texans right now in the AFC South. They can get a meaningful divisional win this weekend but is it going to be Joe Flacco or Anthony Richardson under center for the Colts?
Either way, they have a running game they can lean on and we saw this offense put up some nice numbers against a top-flight Steelers defense. The Colts have a defense that can force turnovers, and if they can cause havoc for Trevor Lawrence, the cries for Doug Pederson to get fired might be even louder.
Prediction: Colts win 23-19
Buffalo Bills (3-1) @ Houston Texans (3-1)
Sunday, October 6 (1:00 PM ET)
The final game on the 1:00 slate for this week of games is arguably the best of them all, and it may not even be all that close.
The Houston Texans were projected as one of the best up-and-coming teams in the AFC before the start of this season, but it’s difficult to say – even with a 3-1 record – that they have validated some of the claims out there. Not that the Texans would have to just go out and dominate every single week in order to be taken seriously, but this team hasn’t looked as sharp as it did at its best last year, by any means.
Finding a way to win is the mark of a good team, and the Texans have found a way to win three of their first four games. You can’t argue with that. But they are going to get a great test this week with the Buffalo Bills coming to town.
And the Bills are going to be out to prove that they made the right decision moving on from Stefon Diggs, or rather that he made the wrong decision trying desperately to get out of Buffalo.
The Bills are coming off of a rather rough loss to the Baltimore Ravens on the road, but that kind of loss can wake a team like this up. I don’t expect Josh Allen is going to struggle nearly as bad in this game against Houston, and the Texans could be in a little bit of trouble here in Week 5. Vegas seems to agree considering the fact that Houston is just a 1.5-point favorite at home in this one.
I think Buffalo is going to come out and make a statement after getting blown out by the Ravens.
Prediction: Bills win 31-21
Las Vegas Raiders (2-2) @ Denver Broncos (2-2)
Sunday, October 6 (4:05 PM ET)
Believe it or not, you’re looking at two of the best teams in the NFL so far this season in terms of overall pass rush win rate.
The Denver Broncos have had one of the best defenses in all of the NFL so far this season, especially the last three weeks with just 22 total points allowed. The Broncos have allowed just two touchdowns in their last three games, which has helped them win two in a row as they head back home after a two-week stay on the East Coast.
The Broncos are coming off of nice wins against both the Buccaneers and the Jets, two teams that have been routinely in the top 10 of our NFL Power Rankings each week so far this season. The issue for the Broncos right now is not the defense, but the offense, which broke out against the Bucs but struggled with the elements against the Jets in Week 4.
It’s tough to get a beat on what we should expect going forward based on the fact that the rain was so bad against the Jets, but the Broncos have a big opportunity this week against the Raiders at home.
The Raiders didn’t have a number of their “star” players on Sunday against the Cleveland Browns, but they still got home for three sacks against Deshaun Watson and they were opportunistic on offense. They’ll need to force Bo Nix to make mistakes again this week if they’re going to go into Denver and get a win against what has been one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL.
For the first time this season, the Broncos are actually favorites in a game. They are early 2.5-point favorites against the Raiders and I think they can cover that.
Prediction: Broncos win 23-16
Arizona Cardinals (1-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-2)
Sunday, October 6 (4:05 PM ET)
It’s safe to say after the absolute drubbing the Arizona Cardinals took this past weekend against the Washington Commanders that they are heading to San Francisco at a horrible time.
The Cardinals need a get-right game after their offense showed so much promise just a couple of short weeks ago, and going on the road to face off against the San Francisco 49ers is not exactly the recipe for success. The Cardinals are a team that was always going to have to outkick its coverage to be relevant this season. They have improved talent and Jonathan Gannon coached them well last year, but they haven’t been as competitive so far this season.
Certainly not against the Commanders this past week.
Even as the Cardinals throw the film from that game away, they shouldn’t expect things to get easier in Week 5. The 49ers have been moving the ball pretty darn well despite the fact that they’ve been missing some playmakers offensively, and they got back on track in a big way this past weekend against the New England Patriots.
Given the talent discrepancy here, it’s no wonder the 49ers are 7.5-point favorites at home this week against a division rival.
It will take a herculean effort by the duo of Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. to figure out a way for the Cardinals to go on the road and beat the 49ers. It would also require the 49ers really making a lot of mistakes. I could see this being one of the top locks of the week.
Prediction: 49ers win 31-20
Green Bay Packers (2-2) @ Los Angeles Rams (1-3)
Sunday, October 6 (4:25 PM ET)
It’s been a weird start to the 2024 season for the Green Bay Packers in 2024. The Packers have won both of the games in which they were forced to start Malik Willis due to an injury to Jordan Love back in Week 1. They have lost both of the games in which Jordan Love has played, and Love has thrown a combined six touchdown passes in those two games.
You just never know in the NFL. The NFL can be very, very odd.
With that in mind, the Packers are heading on the road to face off against the Los Angeles Rams this weekend after the Rams just dropped a road game against another NFC North opponent – the Chicago Bears.
The Packers have so many weapons offensively and they found their stride especially in the second half of that loss to the Vikings. I think we’re going to see a vastly improved team this week against the Rams but how can you just discount the veteran presence of Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay?
The answer is – you can’t.
The problem facing the Los Angeles Rams right now is purely injury related. This team just has so many injuries that it’s hard to see a path for them on a week-to-week basis right now barring a hard-fought game in which they score at least 24 points and force multiple turnovers. Is that possible for them against a team like the Packers? Sure, but I wouldn’t be staking much on it.
This is a game the Packers can go on the road and get their first win of the 2024 season with Jordan Love in the starting lineup.
Prediction: Packers win 27-21
New York Giants (1-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
Sunday, October 6 (4:25 PM ET)
The New York Giants came close against the Dallas Cowboys last week, but they just couldn’t make one or two more plays down the stretch to complete the comeback win.
Daniel Jones actually played one of the better games we’ve seen from him in matchups against Dallas, and I would go so far as to argue that he wasn’t the primary reason why they lost that game. Especially late, his receivers really let him down.
The Giants have found their formula for offensive success, which is just to force-feed the ball to Malik Nabers. Nabers has cost them a couple of times with drops (in the close loss to Washington as well as late against the Cowboys) but he’s also been the source of offense keeping them in games.
He’s going to provide a great test for Mike Macdonald and that Seattle Seahawks defense in Week 5, provided he passes concussion protocol…
And could things really even get that much tougher for Macdonald’s Seahawks? They just gave up one of the most flawless quarterback performances we’ve literally ever seen as Lions QB Jared Goff went 18-for-18 against them with two passing touchdowns.
Heck, Goff even caught a touchdown pass against them.
The Seahawks are going to take out their aggression after the tough loss to the Lions out on the Giants in Week 5. We know Seattle can score a lot of points and I think they will have no problem handling the Giants at home, even if Malik Nabers puts up numbers.
Prediction: Seahawks win 30-20
Dallas Cowboys (2-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)
Sunday, October 6 (8:20 PM ET)
Is this the week we’re finally going to see Russell Wilson for the Pittsburgh Steelers?
I think it would be a shame if the Steelers pulled the plug on Justin Fields after just his first loss of the 2024 season, a loss in which he threw for over 300 yards. The Steelers might have a viable longer-term option in Justin Fields if he continues to play well and progress, and we’ve seen him do some nice things so far this season in Arthur Smith’s offense.
The Steelers were actually victimized a little uncharacteristically on defense this past week as Jonathan Taylor had himself a game for the Colts and then Joe Flacco came on in relief of the injured Anthony Richardson and threw a pair of touchdown passes for the Colts.
I mean, maybe Flacco can really still sling it?
The Steelers didn’t have an answer for Flacco and the Colts late in that game, and they’re going to have even more to deal with this week with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and the Dallas Cowboys coming to town.
But the book on the Cowboys right now might be a little too easy. The Cowboys are not exactly playing dominant defense so far this season. They’re not playing dominant offense, either, but at least on that side of the ball they have the playmakers. The Dallas defense is likely going to be without both DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons after they both went down against the Giants with injuries.
The Cowboys have no running game to speak of, and the Steelers are going to be extra motivated playing at home and coming off of a loss. Pittsburgh is only a 1.5-point favorite at home against the Cowboys this week but I think they can cover that and win by a field goal unless that defense struggles again.
Prediction: Steelers win 20-16
New Orleans Saints (2-2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
Monday, October 7 (8:15 PM ET)
The Kansas City Chiefs are somewhat of a living embodiment of that Will Smith scene from Fresh Prince of Bel Air when he’s alone in the empty room.
Marquise Brown was injured in the preseason. Isiah Pacheco is on injured reserve. Now star receiver Rashee Rice has gone down with what appears to be a season-ending knee injury. The Chiefs’ skill position groups are kind of down bad at this point.
Despite it all, the Chiefs find themselves in a great position at 4-0 after their 17-10 win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 4. It hasn’t been all pretty to start the season, but the Chiefs did something similar last year in terms of struggling in the regular season before absolutely turning it on in the playoffs when it mattered the most.
I don’t think it’s unfair to say this team looks like it’s on autopilot right now. They make just enough plays to win games, and they’re obviously good enough to overcome mistakes, injuries, and shortcomings with their big-game experience and defense.
The lack of playmakers offensively might be a bit of an overblown narrative as Xavier Worthy has been great this year for KC, and Travis Kelce led the team in receiving against the Chargers after a lot of people started talking about whether or not Kelce was cooked (or whatever the kids say these days).
In the end, the Chiefs are just inevitable. We should all accept it until they prove otherwise.
They’re taking on the New Orleans Saints this week, and the Saints have struggled the last two weeks after absolutely dominating their first two games of the season. New Orleans scored 91 points in its first two games but is a 5.5-point underdog against the Chiefs on the road in this one.
The Chiefs, playing at home, in prime time? I think that’s a recipe for certain disaster if you’re the Saints.
Prediction: Chiefs win 27-20