Kirk Cousins is going to be one of the top free agents in the entire class of 2024, and the likelihood of him leaving Minnesota seems pretty low. But when it comes to free agency and the NFL, you just never know, and this is a massive decision for both Cousins as well as the Vikings about what to do regarding the present and future.
Cousins has become much more widely respected in recent years as his consistency has been ongoing now for almost an entire decade. He suffered a season-ending injury in 2023 but the veteran quarterback was well on his way to another huge year statistically, averaging over 291 yards per game (most in his Vikings career) as well as 18 passing touchdowns, which still hold up as one of the best numbers in the league entering Week 13.
If Kirk Cousins hits 2024 NFL free agency, I think there's no question he would be one of the most sought-after players in the league, but which teams make the most sense?
1. Minnesota Vikings
Let's start with the most obvious. The Minnesota Vikings are Kirk Cousins's team. This is a team right now that looks like it can legitimately compete in the NFC when Kirk is healthy, and their alternatives right now aren't great. As fun as "The Passtronaut" Joshua Dobbs has been, I don't think there's really any way the Vikings are going to move off of Kirk Cousins just to have Dobbs as a bridge in 2024.
The question here is really about price. Can the Vikings afford to bring Cousins back? They have to pay Justin Jefferson, Danielle Hunter is hitting free agency, and the Vikings need starters at multiple other positions.
I do still think that this team can manage to keep Cousins and finesse the salary cap. For that reason, I view the Vikings as the most likely team to sign Kirk Cousins, putting them at about 80 percent.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What old people don't like retiring in Florida, am I right?
Kirk Cousins was a free agent back in 2018, and one of the big rumors at the time was that he was going to become the starting QB of the Jacksonville Jaguars because some of his family is in that area (his dad a pastor). The Jaguars chose Blake Bortles over pursuing Cousins, so you win some and you lose some, I guess.
Now, six years later, Cousins might have the chance to return to the idea of moving to Florida where his likely massive contract will then be income tax free. This is a major reason why so many big-name free agents flock to the Florida teams. Although Cousins has made a boatload of money in his career, you certainly can't argue with the idea of potentiall signing a fully guaranteed 2-3 year contract worth upwards of $100 million with no state income tax there in Florida.
And the Buccaneers are a unique team to look at right now. They obviously have some good skill players but no one knows how much longer they're going to have them all. The thinking right now is that the Bucs could make wholesale changes in the offseason, but this is a team that could hire a veteran head coach and sign a veteran QB like Kirk Cousins and probably easily win the NFC South in 2024.
3. Las Vegas Raiders
Kirk Cousins would seem like a complete fish out of water in the city of Las Vegas, but football-wise, this is a really interesting pairing.
The Raiders have arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL in Davante Adams. They have one of the league's best running backs in Josh Jacobs. They have so many pieces on this roster but someone like Kirk Cousins could likely come in and elevate the entire program.
Just like the Buccaneers, the Raiders are a team that could be looking to make wholesale changes this offseason and we know they are already going to have a change at head coach with Josh McDaniels getting fired in-season. Kirk Cousins coming to the Raiders in 2024 would be sort of like a re-do of the team wanting to sign Tom Brady in 2023.
Not that Cousins is Tom Brady, of course, but you get what I'm saying. Bring in a veteran to really raise all boats in the harbor, give you a potent passing attack, and be a critical voice in the locker room. I think the Raiders would be another intriguing option for Cousins because, once again, there's no income tax in Vegas. They could offer him a massive, tax-free deal.
4. Atlanta Falcons
I think Kirk Cousins has a really good thing going right now in Minnesota with the weapons he has in Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, and Jordan Addison (among others). There are not many NFL cities that can rival that lineup, but I think the Atlanta Falcons have a trio that would at least get Cousins excited if he left Minneapolis.
Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts are three players the Atlanta Falcons have invested premium draft capital in, but with no franchise quarterback to speak of. It's like the Falcons are living in an old apartment, and they bought themselves a Tesla, a theater projection system, and a marble dining table.
You've got all these nice pieces, but you're missing a house.
The Falcons should be one of the most aggressive teams in the NFL this offseason when it comes to acquiring a quarterback, and I think they have a lot of pieces offensively to really be an attractive landing spot, even for an established veteran like Cousins. If Kirk Cousins is going to leave Minnesota, he's going to want to go to a situation where he can thrive, not just be paid a lot of money. He's late in his career and has to find a place where he can win.