We've finally crossed into July, which means NFL training camps are within sight. Just a couple of weeks from now, there will be no more breaks for football fans as teams will report for duty and the regular season will be in full swing. Our latest NFL power rankings are going to look a little bit deeper into what could be the "worst-case scenarios" for each NFL team.
As in, what is the potential floor for each team in 2024? Even though optimism should be high with every team having a clean slate, it's not a bad idea to start thinking about what could happen if things go poorly. Let's take a look at every NFL team's potential worst-case scenario in the 2024 season, but let's first address the obvious: Every team's worst-case scenario is a bunch of injuries derailing plans. We may mention injuries for a number of specific teams, but it's obvious that each team's best players getting hurt would be the worst.
We're talking mostly about on-field performance and what each team's "floor" can be as opposed to just great players getting hurt.
2024 NFL Power Rankings: Every team's worst-case scenario this season
32. Las Vegas Raiders: 2 or 3 wins, contend for #1 pick
Out of every team in the NFL, the Raiders are undoubtedly one of the toughest for me to figure out at this stage of the offseason. Are we supposed to buy into Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew? Are the Raiders going to be as good with Antonio Pierce as their full-time head coach as opposed to last year, when he was the proverbial savior from Josh McDaniels?
It’s hard to think about what a “best case” for the Raiders really is in 2024. Does Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew give this team a high enough ceiling to win nine games and sneak into the playoffs? Because of the floor at quarterback and because we don’t know how this team will look with Antonio Pierce as the full-time head coach, the Raiders’ floor this season has to be to potentially have the worst record in the league.
31. Carolina Panthers: 2 or 3 wins, contend for #1 pick
The Carolina Panthers had the worst record in the league this past season, and while Bryce Young has great potential if he can play the way we saw him play at Alabama, this team’s floor has to be considered as bad as it was last year. The Panthers have talent, but they are also breaking in a brand-new head coach in Dave Canales. They traded away arguably their best defensive player and maybe their best player overall in Brian Burns.
If the Panthers want to avoid the worst-case scenario in 2024, they need a breakout campaign from Bryce Young and a host of other players on this roster, and they will need a lot of good luck in the injury department. Otherwise, they might be in for a repeat of last season or marginal improvement in the win column. Maybe the worst thing that could happen for this team is Bryce Young not developing.
30. Tennessee Titans: 3 or 4 wins, contend for #1 pick
After spending a ton of money and resources to upgrade the roster in 2024, it would be beyond frustrating for the Titans as an organization to finish dead last in the AFC South and actually regress from what we saw last year. Six wins with the former NFL Coach of the Year, Mike Vrabel, wasn’t enough for this organization to consider rebuilding. They clearly believed this team was just a couple of pieces away from contention in their division, and we’ll see if they’re right.
Everything hinges on Will Levis taking a step forward, but if he’s erratic and doesn’t prove to be a franchise-caliber quarterback, this team could end up bottoming out with just a couple of wins. It might take injuries to some key veterans to drop that low, but if Levis stinks or Mason Rudolph has to play extensively, 3 or 4 wins might not be out of the question.
29. New York Giants: 3 or 4 wins, contend for #1 pick
Just two seasons ago, the New York Giants not only made the playoffs but somehow won a road playoff game against the white-hot Minnesota Vikings. The Giants were galvanized, they were playing complementary football, and they stayed healthy in key areas. Unfortunately, everything went directly south in the 2023 season for this team. The Giants went 6-11 and ranked 30th in the league in scoring offense and 26th in the league in scoring defense.
Brian Daboll’s offense struggled all season with injuries and the war on attrition, ultimately ranking 30th in 3rd down offense and 31st in red zone offense. This team will be one of the worst in the NFL if Daniel Jones can’t stay healthy and limit turnovers like he did in the 2022 season. Even though this Giants team has nice pieces defensively, the offense could cause them to bottom out in a worst-case scenario.
28. Washington Commanders: 3 or 4 wins, Jayden Daniels looks like a bust
Make no mistake about it – the mission for the Washington Commanders in the 2024 season is making sure they know beyond a shadow of a doubt at the end of the year that they’ve got a player in Jayden Daniels. This season is all about Jayden Daniels and his development, and wins are borderline secondary.
Incidentally, if Daniels turns out to be the franchise QB the Commanders hope, the wins will ultimately come. But if Daniels has a Bryce Young-like rookie season, it might be justified to push the panic button in DC. The Commanders have been searching high and low for a long-term answer at the QB position for a really long time and obviously, they believe they’ve got one here. They have to be hoping there’s some good luck in that #2 overall pick, where CJ Stroud fell last year and ended up being named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
27. New England Patriots: 3-5 wins; Drake Maye plays less than 8 games
The 2024 season will be a complete disaster and failure for the Patriots if this team only wins 3-5 games and Drake Maye doesn’t see the field for even half of a season. Absolute failure in that case. The Patriots might want to open the season with Jacoby Brissett as the starting QB because he gives them “the best chance to win” and they might be right about that.
But if we get to week 9 or week 10 and the Patriots only have two or three wins, they need to go to Drake Maye and get into evaluation mode. Yes, the Patriots have a strong defensive roster, but this team has a young core offensively that needs to grow together. If Jacoby Brissett is balling out and this team is winning, then Maye can afford to sit. But if the Patriots are losing and he doesn’t see the field, that would be the worst possible outcome for the team this season.
26. Minnesota Vikings: 4 or 5 wins and JJ McCarthy never sees the field
If the Minnesota Vikings let Sam Darnold play 17 games and they only win four or five of them, this coaching staff should be ashamed of itself. There is absolutely nothing wrong with teams deciding that rookie quarterbacks need to sit. There’s a huge problem if the team forces a guy to sit through losing or horrible quarterback play.
The Vikings have one of the best overall situations for a young quarterback to step into from their coaching to wide receivers and offensive line. If Sam Darnold fails to prove himself to be a worthwhile reclamation project, then the Vikings need to know when to leave that idea in the dust. For just about any team breaking in a young quarterback, leaving this season with major question marks at that position would be an absolute failure.
25. Seattle Seahawks: 4 or 5 wins, Pete Carroll’s absence is crushing
As wild as it is to think, the Seattle Seahawks might have a pretty low floor in 2024. Although he’s not inheriting a blank canvas, it’s also not like Pete Carroll is handing over the keys to the Legion of Boom to new head coach Mike Macdonald. Carroll instilled a culture in this franchise that won’t easily be replaced, even by a candidate like Macdonald who did tremendous work with the Baltimore Ravens.
The Seahawks were 25th in scoring defense last year. They allowed more first downs last season than any other team. They were 30th in yards, 30th in third-down defense, and just generally getting gashed every week on the defensive front.
Last year was last year, but if there aren’t major improvements defensively this season for the Seahawks, they could be in for a long year. Not to mention, there’s the possibility of a QB controversy with Geno Smith and Sam Howell.
24. Denver Broncos: 4 or 5 wins, Bo Nix looks bad
After winning eight games a year ago with Russell Wilson at the quarterback position, the absolute worst-case scenario for the Denver Broncos has to be cutting those wins in half and Bo Nix looking bad.
Sean Payton would have egg all over his face in that instance.
The Broncos are taking on a massive, unprecedented $85 million in dead salary cap over the next two years to be rid of Russell Wilson. They made a number of other massive changes to the roster besides cutting Wilson, and the pressure is really on Sean Payton for this team to perform.
If Nix looks bad and the Broncos only win four or five games, this season has to be considered a massive failure. They need Nix to prove, at the very least, that he can be a viable long-term option. Maybe winning 9 or 10 games is unfair even after they won eight last season, but Payton’s got to put his money where his mouth is when it comes to the QB change.
23. Arizona Cardinals: 5 or 6 wins; Kyler Murray hurt, young core doesn’t progress
The Arizona Cardinals are one team where I think you could legitimately say that injuries at key positions are the top fear for this coming season. An injury to Kyler Murray would pave the way for Desmond Ridder to play, and I don’t know how fair of an evaluation you’d get out of the young core of this team without Murray in the picture.
So in reality, the worst possible outcome this year for the Cardinals is Kyler Murray missing more time. It would create confusion regarding the QB position going forward and it would cost this team another valuable year of the young core on the roster developing properly.
22. Chicago Bears: 5 or 6 wins, Caleb Williams has Bryce Young-like year
The idea of Caleb Williams having a Bryce Young-like year? We don’t even need to speak like that, do we Bears fans? It’s not going to happen, right? Right?
But what if it does…?
The Chicago Bears seem to be in a really favorable spot. Justin Fields crawled so Caleb Williams could fly. The Bears went through some of the “dog days” of rebuilding over the last three seasons, and it’s time for this team to take the next step and progress. But there’s always a possibility that Caleb Williams struggles as a rookie.
Nobody can predict what the working relationship between he and Shane Waldron (offensive coordinator) is going to be like. No one can predict exactly how he’s going to respond to facing NFL defenses for 18 weeks. No one can predict exactly how this season will go, we can only hope that it doesn’t go as poorly as what we saw from Bryce Young and the Panthers last season.
21. Indianapolis Colts: 5 or 6 wins, Anthony Richardson misses 8+ games
If Anthony Richardson stays healthy, I feel pretty confident in saying that this upcoming season will be a relative success overall for the Indianapolis Colts. Unfortunately, we have no way of predicting what will actually happen. Richardson is obviously one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league. He’s an absolute unicorn physically and he’s got a tremendous coach in Shane Steichen helping guide him.
The biggest potential failure for the Indianapolis Colts this season is that we would see Joe Flacco playing more than half of the season. As fascinating as it was to see Flacco win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award last year, nobody wants to see him doing anything but standing on the sideline this season. If the Colts are forced to play Flacco, it’s the worst-case scenario for this team in 2024.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: 6 wins, mid-season QB benching
The Pittsburgh Steelers are going to be one of the most fascinating teams in the NFL in 2024. I have said this before in the 2024 offseason, but it’s worth repeating:
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a picture of the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object.
The unstoppable force is Mike Tomlin’s incredible run of non-losing seasons. The immovable object is Father Time, which has seemingly come for quarterback Russell Wilson. Which one will win out? Could this actually be the first losing season for Mike Tomlin? The Steelers view Wilson as a godsend after what they’ve witnessed at quarterback the last couple of years with Kenny Pickett. In reality, Wilson was cut by the Denver Broncos with $85 million in dead cap for a variety of legitimate reasons.
The worst possible scenario for the Steelers is another wasted year of a great defense, a losing record, and a QB change at mid-season.
19. New Orleans Saints: 6 wins, mid-season QB benching
Similar to the Pittsburgh Steelers, it’s not difficult to see a scenario for the New Orleans Saints that involves a mid-season quarterback change and a highly disappointing losing record in the midst of it all. The worst thing that could possibly happen to the New Orleans Saints this season is to have to bench Derek Carr due to performance reasons.
The Saints were pretty strong all throughout last season in most statistical metrics, but why did this team miss the playoffs? They went on a nice run at the end of last year against some bad teams, but they can’t rely on having that kind of stretch on the schedule every year when they are playing against teams with backup-level QBs (or worse).
18. Los Angeles Chargers: 6 wins, underachieve despite staying healthy
How ironic would it be if the Los Angeles Chargers upgraded their coaching situation as substantially as they have, going from Brandon Staley to Jim Harbaugh, only to win just six games and finish 3rd or 4th in the AFC West again?
Hey, Rome wasn’t built in a day, but the expectation with Jim Harbaugh coming into this program is that the Chargers are going to be instantly better. If this team stays healthy at key positions and still ends up losing a bunch of games, it’s going to leave the entire Chargers organization in a state of confusion. And frankly, they have every right to already be confused.
How could a team with a QB as talented as Justin Herbert be as bad as this team has been? They need Harbaugh to turn things around quickly.
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6 or 7 wins, Baker Mayfield regresses
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have invested a ton in continuity across the board on their roster and coaching staff this offseason, and the worst possible outcome for them in 2024 is not only to regress as a team, but to see quarterback Baker Mayfield regress as well. In fact, Mayfield regressing after the Bucs gave him a $100 million deal would be devastating for this franchise.
The Bucs could move on from Mayfield after this season but with a hefty dead cap tag and certainly a lot of question marks that come along with that. If Mayfield falls into old habits without Dave Canales around anymore, the Buccaneers could not only lose their hold on the NFC South but be left with even more pressing and concerning questions after this season.
16. Atlanta Falcons: 6 or 7 wins; Kirk Cousins signing is a flop and Michael Penix Jr. struggles
I think it’s pretty obvious what the worst-case scenario is for the Atlanta Falcons, right?
Kirk Cousins is a complete flop of a free agent signing (or gets hurt again). Michael Penix Jr. looks bad when given his opportunity. The Falcons go from competing to at least win a bad division under Arthur Smith to falling even further behind with Raheem Morris and his staff.
That would about do it, right?
The Falcons absolutely need to take a huge leap forward this year. That seems to be the general consensus expectation for this team, but seeing any of the above actually happening this year would be a disaster for this franchise.
15. Cleveland Browns: 6 or 7 wins, Deshaun Watson misses 8+ games
The Cleveland Browns have simply not gotten the most out of their investment in Deshaun Watson. Since he was acquired in one of the biggest blockbuster trades in league history, the Browns have given him $230 million in fully guaranteed cash and have only gotten 11 games and change out of him.
It’s awful.
The reason the Browns aren’t in the news for all the wrong reasons is thanks to their elite defense and the fact that they were somehow able to win 11 games last year despite cycling through a hundred different quarterbacks. Joe Flacco to the rescue.
The biggest failure for the Browns this year would be Deshaun Watson missing another 8-plus games and the Browns missing the playoffs, regressing considerably from last year’s 11 wins. Even if you think they overachieved last year, losing 8 or 9 games this season would be a horrendous regression for Cleveland. Losing more than that and not having Watson? Yikes.
14. New York Jets: 6 or 7 wins; Aaron Rodgers is injured/fails to meet expectations
Another injury-plagued year for Aaron Rodgers would be devastating to the New York Jets and their fan base. Anything short of this team ending its playoff drought – the longest active drought in the league right now – would be a disaster.
If Rodgers is hurt? It’s at least somewhat excusable. If Rodgers simply plays poorly? Well, that’s going to be a fireable offense for just about everyone involved. And frankly, why are we all expecting so much out of Rodgers? Maybe grading him on the MVP curve is unfair, but Rodgers wasn’t great in his final year with the Packers, and is no 40-plus and coming off of a major injury.
A disaster scenario – even for a roster this talented – is not hard to envision.
13. Green Bay Packers: 6 or 7 wins; Jordan Love regresses, new defensive scheme fails
One of the biggest changes the Green Bay Packers made this offseason was moving on from defensive coordinator Joe Barry and bringing in Jeff Hafley – the former Boston College head coach – to replace him. The worst possible outcome for the Packers is that we see the defense really take another step back this year along with the possibility of regression from quarterback Jordan Love.
Love had a breakout year in his first season as a starter, and it’s not like he was just playing with house money. The pressure was on, and Love stepped up to the plate big time. But if we see regression from him in 2024, an uptick in turnovers, and find out that Jeff Hafley is a poor fit as defensive coordinator? That would leave the Packers in a really tough spot heading into 2025.
12. Los Angeles Rams: 6 or 7 wins, team can’t stay healthy
I said earlier that we weren’t just going to use the cop-out of “injuries are this team’s worst-case scenario” because you can say that about literally any team in the NFL. But for the Los Angeles Rams, I think it’s fair. The Rams obviously said goodbye to Aaron Donald this offseason as the future Hall of Famer decided to retire, but the core of this team remains intact.
General manager Les Snead and head coach Sean McVay had taken the “F*** them Picks” approach in the past, but lately, it’s been the draft picks developing into the new core of this roster. The Rams have done such a great job of drafting the last few years, and the only way this team isn’t winning 9 or 10 games is if key veterans like Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp can’t stay healthy.
The Rams need their key veterans around, or you-know-what is hitting the fan.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars: 7 or 8 wins, miss the playoffs (repeat of 2023)
The Jacksonville Jaguars’ worst-case scenario in 2024 might just be a repeat of 2023, right? You don’t want to relive this, Jaguars fans, but how about starting off the season 8-3 and missing the playoffs completely?
How many times has that happened in NFL history? It can’t be many.
What if the Jaguars come out strong again this year, only to falter and give way to the Texans or Colts again? What if Trevor Lawrence looks like a bum after signing a $275 million contract? If the Jaguars can’t find a way back into the postseason this year with that pricey of a quarterback, you can’t help but wonder if the team might think about moving on from Doug Pederson…
10. Miami Dolphins: 7 or 8 wins, miss the playoffs
It’s not going to be enough for the Miami Dolphins just to make the playoffs again this year. They need to show some actual signs of life in January. This team can’t underachieve when it comes to the postseason with all of the talent they have on the roster. With that being said, the lowest the Dolphins could go this year is probably seven or eight wins. This doesn’t strike me as a team that’s really going to bottom out and be in the top 10 of the 2025 NFL Draft barring major injury.
The Dolphins losing 9 or 10 games, however, would be a bad enough downslide for this team to potentially warrant some big changes, whether we’re talking about head coach or quarterback…or both.
9. Buffalo Bills: 8 or 9 wins, miss the playoffs
It wouldn’t shock me if the Buffalo Bills took a step back in 2024, but it’s still hard to imagine this team really going on a downslide as long as Josh Allen is at the quarterback position. The Bills did reset a lot on this roster over the course of the last six months, and it’s going to be really interesting to see just how different things are for this offense without Stefon Diggs or Gabe Davis in the mix.
There’s a lot of pressure on Josh Allen, and for a gunslinger like that, sometimes the pressure to perform can lead to an overabundance of turnovers. And Allen has been able to succeed despite poor ball security at times, including last season. Even with all of the roster losses they’ve had to deal with this offseason, I still don’t see the Bills winning less than eight games in 2024. But if they do drop to 8-9 or 9-8, missing the playoffs is very much a possibility, which would be horrendous in a year of Josh Allen’s “prime”.
8. Dallas Cowboys: 8 or 9 wins, miss playoffs/lose in Wild Card round
Don’t sleep on the idea that the Dallas Cowboys could lose enough games this year to miss the playoffs completely. There’s a lot going on in Dallas, but you have to kind of expect that this offense led by Dak Prescott is going to be too good to miss the playoffs. And Mike Zimmer should have the defense ready to go, but let’s look at the facts here.
The Cowboys are replacing starting left tackle Tyron Smith, who was outstanding last year. They are changing defensive schemes and there’s a bit of a level of unpredictability at cornerback with Trevon Diggs coming back from injury. The Cowboys had to be frugal this offseason. Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb have lingering contract issues as of right now.
You can see where things might go wrong for this team. The worst-case scenario is once again getting knocked out of the playoffs early or even missing out on the postseason entirely.
7. Houston Texans: 8 or 9 wins, miss the playoffs
Given how high the expectations are for the Houston Texans this year, it would be stunning if this team didn’t make the playoffs…
Right?
The Texans have the reigning NFL Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year in CJ Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. They loaded up the roster on both sides of the ball this offseason, adding the likes of Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon to the offense while pairing up Anderson with Danielle Hunter off the edge in the pass rush department.
The pieces are all in place, so the only way the Texans don’t win 10 games is if CJ Stroud regresses or the team simply underachieves and can’t finish games. The Texans have substantially raised their floor in recent years but with a young quarterback, progression is not always going to be linear so you just never know. I feel like nine wins is a baseline for this team, but narrowly missing the playoffs seems to be their floor right now.
6. Cincinnati Bengals: 8 or 9 wins, team can’t stay healthy
The worst possible scenario for the Bengals this coming season is basically a repeat of last year. This team is in a competitive window right now, and given we’ve seen trade requests from guys like Tee Higgins and Trey Hendrickson recently – not to mention the departures of some key coaches and players in 2024 – the sand timer is running low.
The core is going to remain intact, but the Bengals are soon going to have to reset in certain areas and having another major injury to Joe Burrow would cause this team to miss a valuable year where they could otherwise be one of the best teams in the AFC.
If Burrow stays healthy, I don’t see the Bengals winning less than 10 games. But even if Burrow misses time, the Bengals have proven that they’re going to be tough and can still win eight or so games.
5. Philadelphia Eagles: 9 or 10 wins, lose in Wild Card round
The Eagles, like a number of other teams, have the benefit of the “worst-case scenario” sort of playing out last season. They know what not to do, so to speak.
The Eagles have made major changes defensively starting with adding Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator. They added a couple of top-tier prospects to their dreadful secondary in first-round pick Quinyon Mitchell and second-round pick Cooper DeJean. Are the additions going to be enough to fix one of the league’s worst defenses from a year ago?
Given the upgrades they’ve made, it feels like 10 wins will be the floor for the Eagles, but throwing young players into the fire…you just never know. For a team this talented, the worst possible outcome this season is going to be barely making the playoffs and then getting bounced quickly again. Fans are going to start to wonder why such a talented and well-paid roster is underachieving when it matters most.
4. Detroit Lions: 10 wins, lose in Wild Card Round
The Detroit Lions have undoubtedly built themselves into a contender in the NFC. This team was dangerously close to making it to the Super Bowl this past season, and the expectations being heaped upon them this coming season will be tremendous.
When it comes to this roster with this coaching staff, the true floor for the Lions has to be somewhere around 10 wins. The true worst thing that can happen to this team in 2024 is really an early exit from the playoffs. The Lions strike me as a team that’s probably going to win 11 games at minimum, and if they are able to win 11 regular season games only to lose at home in the Wild Card or Divisional Round?
Lions fans would be rightfully sick to their collective stomachs.
3. Baltimore Ravens: 10+ wins, lose in Divisional Round
Everyone assumes the Baltimore Ravens are going to be good again in 2024. Rightfully so. The Ravens are a well-oiled machine at this point and they were dominant just about all year last year.
That’s why it was so shocking that they played so poorly in their playoff loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. With the way the Ravens play defense and how dynamic their offense can be, it’s hard to believe they were shut down the way they were. If that happens again in 2024, it’s the worst-case scenario for this team. Of course, the Ravens have Super Bowl aspirations, but losing before the AFC Championship – at the very least – would be so frustrating for this franchise and fan base.
The pieces are all in place, so for the Ravens to underachieve again in the postseason would be a catastrophe.
2. San Francisco 49ers: 10 or 11 wins, lose in Divisional Round
The San Francisco 49ers are just one of those teams whose proverbial floor is enviable to most franchises around the league. The 49ers’ roster is loaded. They have a tremendous head coach in Kyle Shanahan who always builds a stellar staff. They have the type of depth to sustain injuries.
The 49ers just simply won’t be a “bad” team barring major injury. So the worst possible outcome for this team assuming everyone mostly stays healthy is another premature exit from the playoffs. The 49ers nearly suffered this fate in 2023 when they let the Green Bay Packers come into their house and nearly knock them out of the playoffs. Not reaching the Super Bowl – not winning the Super Bowl – would be a failure this year for the 49ers, but losing before the NFC Championship?
That would be grounds for some extreme possible outcomes in the 2025 offseason.
1. Kansas City Chiefs: 10 wins, lose AFC Championship
The Kansas City Chiefs are just this good, right? No one in their right mind is predicting the Chiefs to lose nine games and miss the playoffs. It truly feels like this team has reached a “floor” of being penciled in for the AFC Championship game.
Maybe the worst-case scenario is that they have to play that game on the road…
Must be nice. The Chiefs are a dynasty, a juggernaut – whatever you want to call them. They are the best team in the league and one of the best in league history. Of course, an injury to Patrick Mahomes would be a nightmare for the Chiefs, but we’re not talking about worst-case scenarios just in terms of injury. This team – on the field – has a floor of the NFL’s final four.
That’s a wild but likely true sentence.