The NFL Draft is an inexact science, but some disasters can be seen from a mile away. The reality of the NFL Draft is that only a certain percentage of picks are going to actually work out. It's always unfortunate to see guys become "busts" but some situations are brought on by the players themselves.
Others are brought on by the team and the circumstances they've thrust players into. Let's take a look at the last decade of the NFL Draft and try to pick the 10 worst selections made. Some of these players simply never contributed to their teams, or never contributed in a positive way. Other players were selected before far better options. Some of these picks embarrassed the franchises that drafted them. Whether it's a lack of statistical production, off-field issues, or over-drafting by certain teams, let's rank the absolute worst first-round picks over the last 10 years.
1. Isaiah Wilson, OT, Titans (2020)
It's pretty insane to think that a first-round pick only appeared in one career game, and it didn't have anything to do with injuries. Isaiah Wilson came into the NFL with some warning labels for his lack of experience, but it turned out to be a general lack of care for the game and inability to carry himself as a professional that would be his downfall.
The 2020 NFL offseason was tough for everyone, but clearly prevented the Tennessee Titans from getting a beat on the person they were drafting here in Wilson, and he ended up making a series of very poor choices as an NFL rookie. He was cut in just his second offseason with the Titans. He got chances with both the Dolphins and Giants, but hasn't stuck with any team and was suspended three games by the NFL in 2023.
2. Damon Arnette, CB, Raiders (2020)
The Las Vegas Raiders made Damon Arnette a shocking first-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft after most people expected him to go in the second or third round at the earliest. He didn't have a good pre-draft process and his lack of athleticism and refinement as a prospect showed up in a big way over his first two years with the Raiders.
Which ended up being his only two years with the Raiders. Arnette was cut after he posted video on his social media carrying firearms and making death threats.
He's somehow gotten multiple chances in the NFL since then (Dolphins, Chiefs) but has been cut by both and has been arrested multiple times since he posted that video in 2021, including as recently as January 2024.
3. Trey Lance, QB, 49ers (2021)
It's tough to lump Trey Lance in with the first two guys mentioned on this list because he hasn't worked out for vastly different reasons. The San Francisco 49ers traded a king's ransom to get up into the 3rd overall slot of the 2021 NFL Draft in order to select Lance, who was one of the biggest risk-reward options in that particular class.
By the time he was drafted into the NFL, Lance hadn't played any real stretch of football in almost two calendar years. Due to the pandemic, he only played one exhibition game at NDSU in 2020 and had just one year as a starter before that in 2019.
Now, Lance is trying to keep his NFL dreams afloat. He was supposed to be the starter for the 49ers in 2022 but suffered an injury early in the season, an injury that started a domino effect leading us to the Brock Purdy era. He was traded last offseason to the Cowboys for a 4th-round pick.
4. Paxton Lynch, QB, Broncos (2016)
The Denver Broncos moved up a handful of spots in the 2016 NFL Draft in order to select Paxton Lynch, the strong-armed QB out of Memphis. The Broncos were spurned by Brock Osweiler in free agency that year. They were denied by Colin Kaepernick after agreeing to a trade with the 49ers because Kaepernick wouldn't agree to a pay cut to fit under Denver's decimated cap.
The post-Super Bowl 50 era for the Broncos began with Trevor Siemian, Mark Sanchez, and Paxton Lynch battling it out for the right to start.
Lynch ended up playing just five games in Denver and was the only first-round pick John Elway had made -- at the time -- to be cut before the end of his rookie deal.
5. Josh Rosen, QB, Cardinals (2018)
Josh Rosen didn't have a great situation with the Arizona Cardinals when he was drafted in 2018, but he was put in a couple of better situations with both the Dolphins and 49ers and still couldn't find a way to stick around in the NFL more than three years.
Rosen was the starter for Arizona in 2018 and things couldn't have gone worse. He threw 14 interceptions, fumbled 10 times, and was sacked 45 times in just 14 games. The 2018 quarterback class was supposed to be a can't-miss class for teams in need, and the Cardinals felt like they had gotten a steal in the former UCLA star.
He was traded after one season with the team when the Cardinals pivoted to Kyler Murray.
6. Johnny Manziel, QB, Browns (2014)
If Johnny Manziel would have loved the grind of football, he probably would have been one of the best picks of the last 10 years. But as we all saw and heard in his Netflix documentary, Manziel really just didn't love the game enough, not in every aspect.
The Browns have been a disastrous team through the years, but Manziel didn't do himself or the franchise any favors for the way they believed in him enough to draft him in the first round. The former Heisman Trophy winner will always be one of the tragic "what if" stories of the NFL. The Browns cut him after just two years with the team.
7. Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Bears (2017)
Mitchell Trubisky had his 15 minutes of fame with the Chicago Bears, somehow earning a Pro Bowl nod during the 2018 season as the Chicago Bears had some nice team success. Trubisky was the 2nd overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft in which the Bears originally held the 3rd overall pick.
They chose Trubisky over Patrick Mahomes, which no one has let them live down in the years that have followed this pick. Trubisky has only ever played above replacement level for a handful of games in his NFL career, and proved this past year with the Steelers that he's not even really a reliable backup option.
8. Kenny Pickett, QB, Steelers (2022)
Speaking of Steelers quarterbacks, how about Pittsburgh's 2022 first-round pick Kenny Pickett?
Pickett's NFL career got off to a rough start with his first-ever pass being picked off by safety Jordan Whitehead. In 25 career games, Pickett has only managed to throw 13 touchdown passes. It's remarkable inefficiency considering Pickett has played on a team with a dominating defense that is constantly giving him chances with extra possessions.
Now, after two disturbingly bad years of QB play, the Steelers are resetting and traded Pickett to the Eagles. They're onto Russell Wilson and Justin Fields instead.
9. Kevin White, WR, Bears (2015)
Kevin White was the 7th overall pick of the 2015 NFL Draft and was expected to come into the NFL with his combination of height, weight, and speed, and absolutely dominate. White was the prototype at the position and was exceptional at West Virginia.
But his collegiate success didn't translate to the NFL, to say the least. White played 30 NFL games in total, and never once scored a touchdown. As a matter of fact, he caught just 28 passes over the course of his NFL career. Even though he was still bouncing around the league as recently as 2022, White is one of the biggest NFL Draft disappointments in recent memory.
10. Justin Gilbert, CB, Browns (2014)
The 2014 NFL Draft wasn't exactly kind to the Cleveland Browns. We already talked about the colossal bust that was Johnny Manziel, but the Browns used a top-10 pick on Justin Gilbert that year and he was almost just as bad.
Although Gilbert showed some promise in his rookie year, he was also suspended by the team late in his rookie season and only played nine games in year two. He was traded within the division to the Steelers in 2016 and Pittsburgh got almost nothing out of him in 12 appearances (3 total tackles).
Gilbert was suspended by the NFL in 2017 for violating the league's substance abuse policy. He's now playing professional football for the Sioux City (Iowa) Bandits of the National Arena League.