Tua Tagovailoa showed he’s an above-average starter in the 2023 regular season; staying healthy and putting up fantastic numbers, which comes off the back of his 2022 season where he threw for 3,548 yards and 25 touchdowns, showing glimpses of brilliance. But the Miami Dolphins don’t seem to be in a rush to extend the former No. 5 overall pick. The Fins are at a bit of a crossroads with Tua Tagovailoa, debating whether to lock him into a long-term deal. The buzz is that Tua’s extension could be worth $50M annually.. After he allegedly turned down a contract extension, those rumors might be true.
In 2023, he continued to impress with 4,312 yards and 28 touchdowns. Those stats scream franchise QB, but the Dolphins shouldn't rush this decision. His injury history and inconsistency are red flags that can't be ignored. While the NFL Media, like ESPN's Unsportsmanlike are hyping up the idea that Chris Grier is trying to justify drafting Tua ahead of Justin Herbert, so paying the former No. 5 overall pick does that. While Tua has the potential, Miami needs to weigh its options carefully before committing to a massive contract.
3. Offensive Line Woes
There’s a theme when it comes to the Miami Dolphins franchise, and that’s the lack of offensive line play. There’s an argument to be made that Tua’s success was in spite of the offensive line. He gets rid of the ball quicker than most quarterbacks in the NFL. However, that’s due to Mike McDaniel’s one read scheme. While Tua is one of the better quarterbacks for such a system he hasn’t shown he could take the next step and do more with less.
The Dolphins’ offensive line situation is a bit of a head-scratcher. Sure, they grabbed Patrick Paul in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft, but let’s be honest, he’s more of a backup plan for the often-injured Terron Armstead than an immediate upgrade. Armstead’s injury history has been a thorn in Miami’s side, missing chunks of the season and leaving Tua vulnerable. Patrick Paul is a promising tackle, but his role is largely seen as an insurance policy rather than a definitive solution.
And what about the center position?
Aaron Brewer has stepped in, but the position remains a significant question mark with Brewer's inconsistencies. The interior line, which includes guard Lester Cotton and others, hasn’t been dominant either. By not aggressively upgrading the offensive line, especially the interior, the Dolphins might be testing Tua’s ability to perform under pressure. Can he shine without a perfect setup? That’s a big question mark and perhaps a sign that Miami isn’t ready to lock in a massive contract just yet considering they need help up front.
2. Tua’s Performance Against Top Teams and Playoff Struggles
Are wins and losses a quarterback stat? If you ask all of NFL media and social media, the answer is a resounding yes. What does that say about Tua’s potential big deal?
Look at is stats from the 2023 season. Sure, they look great on paper—over 4,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. But let’s dig deeper. His record against teams with winning records wasn’t exactly stellar. Take the Buffalo Bills game: Tua threw for just 205 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in a 34-17 loss. Against the Kansas City Chiefs, he completed 21 of 38 passes for 231 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in a close 27-24 defeat.
The playoff performance against the Chiefs was the most telling. Tua completed 18 of 33 passes for 205 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception, and the Dolphins managed just seven points. It’s clear he struggled to elevate his game when it mattered most. It’s hard not to look at the end result and not have doubts about his readiness to lead the team deep into the playoffs. We’ve seen in other contract talks that winning plays a major role when considering a $50 million per year contract.
1. The Franchise Tag Option
Here’s the thing: the Dolphins don’t need to be bullied by NFL media narratives into paying Tua top dollar right now. They’ve got options. With the fifth-year option in 2024 and the franchise tag for the following year, Miami can take a “wait-and-see” approach.
Using the franchise tag buys them more time to evaluate Tua’s performance and durability without committing to a long-term deal. Plus, it keeps their financial options open. They can also consider drafting a quarterback in 2025. Imagine having Tua on the franchise tag while grooming a new, mobile QB like Jalen Milroe from Alabama or KJ Jefferson from Arkansas. These guys have different skill sets from Tua and could learn a lot from sitting behind him for a year or two.
As much as this may hurt, the Fins have Mike White. No, he’s not an elite starter at quarterback, but he’s shown he can win games when he suited up for the New York Jets. He can play until Tua and his camp decide it’s time for the No. 5 overall pick to come back. If they decide it’s best for him to sit out, well, they’ll be doing so for two seasons.
So, no, there’s no rush to sign Tua to a long-term deal. The Dolphins have a strategic plan in place, and they’re sticking to it. They’re in control, and they’ll make the decision that’s best for the team’s future, regardless of outside pressure.
It’s nothing wrong with the Dolphins taking cautious and strategic approach with Tua. They’re making sure they have all their bases covered before making a massive financial commitment, and that’s a smart play.