The 2025 NFL schedule has been released and every team now knows their official path to Super Bowl LV. While some teams have reason to be more optimistic than others, this is the time of year when everyone has a clean slate, an undefeated record, and a lof ot new additions to be excited about.
But we all have to live in the realm of “realism”. Not everyone is going to be 17-0 and not everything is going to go according to plan. As we look at how every team has assembled its rosters on paper, we’ve got to call our shot on what each team’s record could be.
Who is taking that proverbial step forward and who is going to be taking a step back in 2025? How many teams can legitimately contend for playoff spots in 2025?
We’re not predicting every individual game on the schedule here, but giving you a feel for what we think teams look like on paper. This is going to be a somewhat optimistic forecast for each NFL team right now based on what we saw last year and what they did this offseason to improve.
Way-too-early 2025 NFL record predictions for all 32 teams
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles: 13-4
The Philadelphia Eagles are obviously one of the best and most well-rounded teams in football right now, even after some losses in the trenches defensively in the 2025 offseason. With Vic Fangio calling the shots defensively, we shouldn’t see much of a dropoff if any, and the Eagles are always replenishing with young players on the defensive line. The real challenge will be for this team offensively to repeat or even come close to duplicating last year’s success.
2. Washington Commanders: 11-6
The Commanders were clearly a year ahead of schedule last year but that doesn’t mean they will have a huge dropoff in year two of the Dan Quinn/Jayden Daniels era. This team is being run by an absolute mastermind in GM Adam Peters, who has had success everywhere he’s been. I want to put the Commanders on top of the NFC East but that’s too hot of a take, even for May. We’ll see where we’re at after the first couple weeks of the preseason.
3. Dallas Cowboys: 9-8
A fully healthy Dallas Cowboys team is probably good enough to win the NFC East, but this team is just an injury or two away from being in a really bad spot yet again. Even if the Cowboys are healthy, they’ve also got to get the version of Dak Prescott that isn’t throwing picks left and right. I think this team has to be one of the toughest to peg right now and I could see them being as high as 11 or 12 wins and as low as 6 or 7.
4. New York Giants: 7-10
The New York Giants could be a significantly improved team in 2025, but not necessarily because of the offense. Anytime you can dominate in the trenches on one side of the ball, you immediately raise the floor of your team, and the Giants are really good on the defensive line. If they can even get decent contributions from Russell Wilson, they should be able to win seven games. In fact, seven wins might become the new floor for this team after the way the offseason turned out.
AFC East
1. Buffalo Bills: 13-4
The Buffalo Bills have added a number of key pieces to an already loaded roster this offseason and continuity is their best friend. Or is it? The Bills have the league MVP in Josh Allen, and he makes everyone better around him. With the upgrades they made to the defensive side of the ball in 2025, the Bills should be able to coast to a fantastic regular season.
2. New England Patriots: 10-7
I am buying the Patriots as one of the top up-and-coming teams in the NFL this season. I think Mike Vrabel was one of the top hires on the coaching cycle this year, and the Patriots have the makings of a team that could jump up to double-digit wins if Drake Maye progresses the way many of us in the football media world assume he will. There is a lot of work left to be done on this roster but the Pats could be a fun team.
3. Miami Dolphins: 8-9
Major question marks on the offensive and defensive lines, huge losses in the secondary, Tyreek Hill going off the rails off the field…There are a lot of reasons to be low on the Dolphins right now even before you get to Tua Tagovailoa’s injury history and the risk he runs of further injury every time he steps onto a field. I don’t think this Dolphins team will bottom out, but it could be another disappointing year for them.
4. New York Jets: 5-12
The Jets look like a team that is poised to be a seller at the NFL trade deadline. They are a roster and franchise in flux with a number of key players coming up on contract years as well as a shaky quarterback situation. That’s not to say they can’t put it all together and make some noise in the AFC East this year, but I wouldn’t be putting money on it or anything.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers: 12-5
I don’t know that the Green Bay Packers are the most impressive roster in the NFC North right now, but they might have the best shot at winning the division due to the circumstances surrounding the other teams. The Packers have the most dynamic quarterback in the division, and they’ve reloaded on weapons, but are they one edge rusher short at the moment? I still think the floor for this team is 10 or 11 wins.
2. Detroit Lions: 11-6
I have a sneaking suspicion that this season is going to be a lot tougher on the Lions than a lot of people are expecting. The loss of Aaron Glenn on the defensive side is one thing, but the loss of Ben Johnson offensively? That could hurt. The Lions also may not be getting the same Aidan Hutchinson that they had on the field last year as he looks awful in recent rehabilitation videos. For someone who was adamant he would be ready for the Super Bowl if the Lions made it, Hutchinson looks behind schedule. The talent level is so good in Detroit that this team should have an 11-win floor.
3. Chicago Bears: 10-7
The Chicago Bears have to be one of the most improved teams in the entire NFL this offseason. But can Ben Johnson prevent Caleb Williams from taking so many sacks? Williams needs to show progression on his internal clock in year two, regardless of the additions the Bears made on the offensive line. This team already had a good defense so they should be able to take the leap to 10 wins if Williams is up to the challenge.
4. Minnesota Vikings: 9-8
I hate to be this disrespectful of the Vikings and NFL Coach of the Year Kevin O’Connell, but the clock’s got to strike midnight at some point. I don’t want to be the one constantly doubting the Vikings while they continue to put a good product on the field but we saw this team crumble in the playoffs before Sam Darnold walked out the door in free agency. I’m going to project a winning season in the first year of the JJ McCarthy era, which is fair optimism at this point.
AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens: 15-2
The Baltimore Ravens are going to coast to the NFL’s best regular season record in 2025. I’m almost certain of it. The question is, what’s going to happen to this team when we get to January? If ever there was a year for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to capitalize on the window they’re in, it’s got to be this one, right? I’ve been saying that for a couple of years, though. This team is stacked.
2. Cincinnati Bengals: 11-6
There is still drama in Cincinnati right now with Trey Hendrickson but if the Bengals can solidify the defensive side of the ball and even be just a middling unit this year, they’re going to win 10 or 11 games at a minimum. They almost won a bunch more games last year just thanks to Joe Burrow and the offense being able to score 40 points seemingly at will. The defense has to improve, but 11 wins is reasonable to expect from this Bengals team right now.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-8
I’m going to project the Steelers to win nine games again because it seems inevitable under head coach Mike Tomlin, but this is really hanging by an Aaron Rodgers-sized thread right now. If Rodgers doesn’t come aboard, then the Steelers need to quickly pivot to Kirk Cousins. And if Mason Rudolph ends up starting games this season, I’m saying six wins is the max.
4. Cleveland Browns: 4-13
I think the Browns will be lucky to win these four games I’m projecting here. This isn’t the worst overall roster in the league, but the defense of Cleveland is doing some seriously heavy lifting here. The Browns are one Myles Garrett injury away from winning one or two games this year. Anything more than four wins this season would be a masterclass from Kevin Stefanski of putting guys in positions to succeed despite the roster malpractice committed with the Deshaun Watson trade.
NFC South
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10-7
I want so badly for someone to step up in the NFC South this year. It just feels like no one is quite ready to break past that seven-loss barrier, and that includes the reigning division champion Buccaneers. There are weeks when this team looks exceptional, and weeks when they look exceptionally average. The offense seems like it’s reached the ceiling of what it can be with Baker Mayfield at the helm, which is good enough to do some damage in the playoffs if he’s on top of his game. The Bucs just have to hope to stay healthy defensively (a challenge last season) and that Mayfield gets hot at the right time.
2. Atlanta Falcons: 10-7
The Atlanta Falcons have all of the pieces in place offensively, but the investments they made on the defensive side of the ball in 2025 will be critical in determining whether this team can get to 10 wins in 2025. And you would think 10 wins would be enough to punch a ticket to the postseason for Atlanta. This is a crucial year for GM Terry Fontenot, who has done a pretty solid job of assembling talent for his roster. It’s up to Raheem Morris and his staff to put it all together and bring the vision to life in 2025.
3. Carolina Panthers: 7-10
I think seven wins for the Carolina Panthers is optimistic as of right now. The Panthers got some progress last year from Bryce Young, so they brought in Tetairoa McMillan as a new weapon for him in 2025. The defense, however, still lacks star power and the roster lacks the quality depth required to sustain any sort of injury issues throughout a regular season. The Panthers could overachieve and win nine games, but that feels like their ceiling if they are one of the healthiest teams in the league.
4. New Orleans Saints: 3-14
Three wins for the Saints is being generous at this point, and the quarterback situation is a big reason why. I think if you have the Saints on your schedule in 2025, you’re almost penciling that in as a win. The Saints might be able to upset a division rival or two since you play those teams twice, and they might catch another team on a bad week or a backup QB at some point this season. I just don’t see this team being overly competitive with Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shough.
AFC South
1. Houston Texans: 12-5
The Texans had a bit of a regression last year but I think we’ll see them get back on track in the 2025 season. CJ Stroud has a couple of new weapons in the passing game with the arrival of second-round receiver Jayden Higgins and third-round receiver Jaylin Noel. The real development to watch with this Houston roster will be the offensive line. Are the Texans really going to be better off with the devil they don’t know vs. the devil they did know?
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-9
That second-half surge for the Jaguars back in the 2022 season feels like it was just yesterday, but it was really a lifetime ago when you look at how much has changed with this team. Everything was shaping up for the Jaguars until the middle of the 2023 season when they just took a nosedive with no end in sight. A shock to the system with new GM James Gladstone and the arrival of two-way star Travis Hunter could put the Jags back on the map this season, even if it’s only to the tune of eight wins.
3. Indianapolis Colts: 7-10
A team as talented as the Colts is unfortunately only going to go as far as their quarterback situation will take them. The question at this stage is whether we’re going to get a Sam Darnold-like resurgence from Daniel Jones or a breakthrough year for former 4th overall pick Anthony Richardson. There’s a lot to like about this Colts team, including an absolutely stellar collection of skill talent offensively, but I see that QB situation holding this team back.
4. Tennessee Titans: 5-12
The Titans are likely going to continue reshaping this roster as NFL trade deadline sellers in the 2025 season. New general manager Mike Borgonzi got his quarterback of the future in Cam Ward, and while the Titans would love to be this year’s version of what the Commanders were last year, I have a hard time seeing that happening. The Titans are not going to just pack this season in, but they could be in line for the top non-QB in the 2026 NFL Draft.
NFC West
1. Los Angeles Rams: 12-5
At some point, it’s actually going to be the last dance for quarterback Matthew Stafford. The threats of retirement and injury issues being discussed are too loud at this stage. Still, the Rams have not made any definitive plans for the future at quarterback and Stafford has been committed to this franchise since winning them a Super Bowl in the 2021 season. With a revamped defense thanks to stellar drafting from Les Snead, as well as the addition of Davante Adams this offseason, this Rams team looks poised for a big-time run in the NFC.
2. Arizona Cardinals: 10-7
The Cardinals put their whole focus in the 2025 offseason on improving Jonathan Gannon’s defense, and they made some high-impact additions. If the pass rush doesn’t improve with the free agent signing of Josh Sweat and 1st-round pick Walter Nolen, I don’t know what will do it. If Arizona can get a breakthrough year from Marvin Harrison Jr., this could be one of the most improved all-around teams in the league.
3. Seattle Seahawks: 8-9
Count me in as one of the ones not buying the makeover for the Seahawks this offseason. I also didn’t love the idea of Seattle continuing to spin its wheels with Geno Smith, but the trade of Smith plus the trade of DK Metcalf? Replacing him with Cooper Kupp? I just don’t love it. As impressive as Sam Darnold was last year, how will he do without Kevin O’Connell in his corner? I don’t have the guts to call five wins for Seattle so I’m saying 7 or 8.
4. San Francisco 49ers: 7-10
When you look at what San Francisco has lost this offseason, it’s hard to see this team not taking another step back in 2025. It’s also extremely tough for me to bet against Kyle Shanahan with Robert Saleh on his staff. Those guys are always going to elevate the players they have, regardless of how good they may look on paper. But losing Deebo Samuel, Talanoa Hufanga, Dre Greenlaw, Javon Hargrave, Charvarius Ward, and others? It hurts.
AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs: 13-4
The Kansas City Chiefs may have gotten really lucky last year in some of their one-score games, but this team is still just flat-out good. I don’t know if they are 13-win good, but are you going to project their downfall? The Chiefs feel like a team that sort of sleepwalks through the offseason and just pulls out wins whatever way they need to at the drop of a hat. I could see Kansas City dropping to 11 or 12 wins but dropping from 15 to 13 seems like a pretty reasonable projection right now.
2. Denver Broncos: 12-5
The Denver Broncos have substantially improved since Sean Payton took over as their head coach, to the surprise of absolutely no one. This team won nine games last year by nine or more points, but struggled to finish one-score games (1-6). They now have an even better defense which ranked 3rd in the NFL last year and Bo Nix had a historically good rookie year. This team won 10 games with $90 million in dead cap working against them. Another jump is likely.
3. Los Angeles Chargers: 11-6
The Jim Harbaugh era got off to a solid start as the Chargers made it back to the playoffs and were awesome all year defensively. Sadly for them, they stunk it up in the playoffs again and Justin Herbert played the worst we had seen from him all year on the biggest stage. The Chargers found a way to Charger. I’m skeptical this team has made the changes necessary to truly compete for an AFC West title but Jim Harbaugh’s teams are always tough.
4. Las Vegas Raiders: 9-8
How much can Pete Carroll do to change the losing culture with the Raiders? Well, he’s got himself a quarterback in Geno Smith and one of the best weapons in the 2025 rookie class in Ashton Jeanty. The Raiders still are a work in progress defensively, but with Maxx Crosby, it’s like they’ve got 12 guys out there anyway. I think they’re going to be one of the most improved teams in the league but still rough around the edges.