Which NFL players will fall off the proverbial cliff in the 2020 season?
The age range in which NFL players begin their decline, whether gradual or swift, varies by position. In recent years, quarterbacks have thrived into their late-30s and early-40s. Well, some have flourished, mainly the good ones. Tom Brady won a Super Bowl at age 42 just two seasons ago; Drew Brees was second in the NFL in passer rating in 2019 at age 40.
Running backs are prone to the most abuse as their primary job description is to get handed the ball and be bludgeoned — about 25 times per game, in at least 16 games per season. Generally, tailbacks see a physical decline in their late-20s. Once they approach that brink, it’s close to a done deal.
Exceptions, of course, exist. The quintessential reason rushing king Emmitt Smith can wear his crown to this day is because he was raking in 900+ yard seasons after the age of 30. All told, Smith notched over 900 rushing yards a whopping five times after his 30th birthday.
On the defensive side of the football, the range of age drop-offs vary. Clay Matthews, for example, is 34 years old, was serviceable in 2019 for the Los Angeles Rams, and is now a free agent. Is this the end of the line for Matthews? Maybe so.
There will not be any kickers or punters in the proceeding rankings as those gentlemen are largely non-contact personnel. Kicker Adam Vinatieri played in 12 games last season for the Indianapolis Colts and he is older than most of your fathers.
Overall, this “cliff-diving” process is inevitable as many of the adages insinuate. Here are five players that have a high probability of careening off that cliff in the 2020 NFL season.
Note: All stats are courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
5. Danny Amendola, WR, Detroit Lions
This is not an indictment of Danny Amendola’s past, current team, or quarterback. Amendola has won two Super Bowls (2014, 2016) and his addition to this list hardly takes that away from him.
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Amendola is just currently squished on a depth chart stuffed full of young, hungry wide receivers. As it stands, he will battle Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Geronimo Allisom and rookie Quintez Cephus for the third wide receiver spot on the Detroit Lions depth chart.
There is no earthly pathway for Amendola to dethrone Golladay or Jones for their respective one and two spots on merit, so that leaves him in a tussle with Allison and Cephus.
The soon-to-be 35-year-old does have some attributes that give him a puncher’s chance to land the third wideout position on the depth chart. He is renowned for outstanding hands, and he has come up big in clutch moments throughout his 11-year career. Amendola is not a fledgling old pass-catcher.
He is, though, well into his mid-30s and only a select few wideouts remain viable pass-catchers beyond this point. Matthew Stafford will look to hurl the ball over the field per usual, but Amendola’s prospects of being the bonafide third-guy have dwindled with the emergence of younger men on the Lions depth chart.
4. Jimmy Graham, TE, Chicago Bears
This one is a little muddled because Jimmy Graham has not been that threatening to defenses since 2016 with the Seattle Seahawks. He is the type of player that joins a new team, fanbases get overly excited, fantasy owners think they are getting a sneaky sleeper — and then his production is largely underwhelming.
However, Graham has been an effective football player in his decade-long professional adventure. Remarkably, no tight end anywhere has more receiving yards since 2010 than Graham. This is impressive because he’s accounted for more yards than players like Rob Gronkowski and Jason Witten. Graham even has the second-most receiving touchdowns by a tight end in the last decade; only Gronkowski has more.
Graham will be 34 years old in November, so that’s one strike against him. The other colossal indicator of decline is the quarterback(s) he will receive passes from in 2020. He signed a free-agent deal with the Chicago Bears this offseason and figures to have Mitchell Trubisky or Nick Foles feeding him the pigskin. Neither are known as prolific volume passers. Each man has notable moments (some prolonged) of success but neither has successfully anchored a franchise for longer than one year, at least not successfully.
And then there’s the Bears selection of tight end Cole Kmet. The Bears spent a second-round draft pick on the large tight end from Notre Dame and the direction will likely be to incorporate him into the offense. As a result, Graham’s targets will dip, and so will his production.
3. Philip Rivers, QB, Indianapolis Colts
This is the end of the line for probable Hall of Famer Philip Rivers. He’s certainly not inept or washed but his game has shown serious indicators of mediocrity.
In 2019, Rivers finished the year with a QBR of 48.6. This was worse than Joe Flacco, rookie Daniel Jones and interception aficionado Jameis Winston. Strangely, the man that is currently the reserve quarterback on the Colts, Jacoby Brissett, had a better 2019 QBR than Rivers (50.1).
The feel, so to speak, of this roster tandem at quarterback is one that hints of Brissett reclaiming his job should Rivers falter. Brissett is also not a set-the-world-on-fire type of signal-caller, but he is moderately efficient and protects the football. Last season, Rivers did the opposite. He tossed 20 interceptions–another tell-tale sign that the gasoline tank is near empty.
Nevertheless, Rivers has plenty of hooks to hang his hat on. He ranks sixth all-time in both passing yards and passing touchdowns. He’s a seven-time Pro Bowler. And he owns the 10th-best passer rating of all-time. He has the career accolades, unquestionably.
But beginning this year, he will find his cliff and look downward. We will soon be having discussions about where Rivers ranks among the best quarterbacks never to visit a Super Bowl. Perhaps he and Tony Romo can chat about this together in an announcing booth.
2. Mark Ingram, RB, Baltimore Ravens
This three-time Pro Bowler will be 31 years of age in late-December. Now, Mark Ingram very well could replicate the Frank Gore-Adrian Peterson-Emmitt Smith ilk of playing into his 30s. But that is more of a possibility than a probability.
Age is the first strike against him. Only 22 running backs in NFL history have had over 800 rushing-yard seasons at the age of 31. About 32 percent of those tailbacks are now in the Hall of Fame. Ingram’s candidacy into the Hall of Fame is an extreme longshot unless he does otherworldly things in the next few seasons. The odds are that Ingram will follow the trajectory of thousands of other running backs and be close to done at age 31.
The second strike against Ingram this season is depth chart positioning. He is still a reliable runner of the football but the Ravens backfield is increasingly crowded. How so?
The Ravens have the following running backs slated to compete for playing time this season: rookie J.K. Dobbins, Justice Hill and Gus Edwards. That does not even take into account the enormous percentage of rush attempts quarterback Lamar Jackson will allot for himself.
A sensible working theory is that Dobbins will emerge as the most capable tailback on the squad, Jackson will do his thing, and Ingram, Hill, and Edwards will fight for the breadcrumbs. Sure, Ingram could pick up those breadcrumbs around the goal line and be a short-yardage specialist. Yet, his days of serving as a bell-cow tailback are likely finished.
1. Thomas Davis, LB, Washington Football Team
The longtime playmaker and tackling machine for the Carolina Panthers will wind down his playing days with the Washington Football Team. What a year for it.
Thomas Davis has followed his former boss to the District of Columbia. Head coach Ron Rivera was hired by the Football Team on New Year’s Day 2020 and has already encountered a whirlwind of unparalleled events. The shunning of a racist team nickname, the odd failure to immediately replace said nickname, and explosive reports of a misogynistic team culture are a few of the notables. At least he has a friend in Thomas Davis by his side.
As for the football outlook, Davis has had an illustrious career. But it has to end soon. We do not see old linebackers in the league with much frequency. The collision-based nature of their jobs generally has linebackers out of the game by age 35. Davis will soon follow suit.
Even if Davis conjured more late-career magic, the likelihood is that it will not amount to much team prosperity with the Football Team. Washington is deficient in too many core areas of its roster to flirt with playoff aspirations.
When Davis closes down shop this year or soon after, he can do so knowing that from the moment he entered the league until this snapshot in time, he ranks fifth in the NFL in most total tackles. That will accompany First-Team All-Pro selection from 2015 and his three Pro Bowl nods.