Predicting every significant end-of-season NFL award winner before Week 1.
Short of winning the Super Bowl, the greatest achievement an NFL player can receive after a long year is an end-of-season award. These awards go to the league’s most outstanding players and coaches and can be unpredictable. No one saw Lamar Jackson or Stephon Gilmore taking home hardware last season, but both players won major awards as the league MVP and Defensive Player of the Year, respectively.
Despite the unpredictable nature of the end-of-season NFL awards, looking at the contenders and predicting which players will be in the mix and win the award is valuable. It gives us an idea of where some of the best stand coming into the year.
Subsequently, we’re going to make predictions for every major NFL award in the 2020 season, starting as we should with MVP.
NFL MVP: Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks
I bet you were expecting Patrick Mahomes. While the reigning Super Bowl champion is one of the favorites to win the NFL MVP, Wilson is the best active quarterback without one. Drew Brees also has a legendary career but the 41-year-old isn’t winning any end-of-season hardware. Meanwhile, Wilson is in his prime and consistently hears his names in MVP debates.
The Seahawks recently retooled their team, but Wilson continues carrying the organization to ten-win seasons and playoff appearances. While Mahomes and Jackson both put together spectacular performances, no player means more to his team than Wilson. If the Seahawks win the NFC West this season, toppling the San Francisco 49ers, Wilson deserves the MVP.
At this point, no one expects a running back or wide receiver to win the MVP. As Adrian Peterson proved in 2012, it would take at least a 2,000-yard performance to steal the award from quarterbacks. Despite the stardom of players like Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott, Derrick Henry, and Christian McCaffrey, I don’t see a running back matching Peterson’s career year. No wide receiver has ever won the Associated Press MVP.
Outside of the main quarterbacks competing at the top of the pack, Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson deserve some attention. Brady is playing in a loaded offensive system with a quarterback guru at head coach. Meanwhile, Watson is knocking on the doorstep of the league’s elite quarterbacks.
NFL Coach of the Year: Frank Reich, Indianapolis Colts
A few coaches are in advantageous positions for winning Coach of the Year. Of that group, Frank Reich’s name jumped out to me. Reich cut his teeth as an offensive coordinator in San Diego (2014-15) and Philadelphia (2016-17). During those four years, he worked directly with Philip Rivers and won a Super Bowl under Doug Pederson.
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The Colts fell apart because they didn’t have a stable quarterback last season. Now, Rivers is at the helm, and DeForest Buckner joined a defense that already featured Justin Houston and Darius Leonard. On the backs of the NFL’s best offensive line and an elite backfield, the Colts seem primed for a playoff run.
If Bill Belichick wins nine or ten games with the depleted New England Patriots, he automatically deserves this award. However, I can’t imagine the Patriots reaching that mark after all of their opt-outs and free agent losses. John Harbaugh is one of the NFL’s best coaches, but he won the award last year and his team went 14-2. It’s hard to improve on that.
Andy Reid could win the award for a second time, especially if the Kansas City Chiefs dominate like everyone expects. Bruce Arians could take home the award for the third time with his third different team. Arians previously won while coaching in Arizona and Indianapolis. His Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature a loaded offense and dominant defensive front.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
Sadly, the Comeback Player of the Year is usually the most competitive award. So many fantastic athletes drop every year, leading to stacked races. Of course, the headliner this season is Alex Smith. Many people are skeptical about Smith’s chances of ever playing in a game again despite getting cleared by team doctors, but Washington’s quarterback pool is extremely weak.
I would’ve loved to pick Smith here, but Ron Rivera already named Dwayne Haskins as the starter for Week 1. According to ESPN’s John Keim, Smith “has yet to take any snaps while in full pads during a full-team situation.” A comeback is still a long way off for Smith, but keep a close eye on him as the season progresses.
While Smith fights for playing time in Washington, Stafford should resume his role as the starter in Detroit after missing the team’s final eight games last year. Stafford paced 4,998 yards, 38 touchdowns, and ten interceptions through the first half of 2019. If he even comes close to matching those marks in 2020, the 32-year-old should win Comeback Player of the Year.
Other intriguing comeback cases include A.J. Green, Rob Gronkowski, Todd Gurley, Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, and J.J. Watt. Newton and Roethlisberger have the best chances since they’ll touch the ball on every offensive play. Sometimes volume can beat out quality.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
Quarterbacks usually dominate the end-of-season awards. Since the turn of the century, only four MVPs and 11 Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) awards went to non-quarterbacks. Since two single callers already earned awards in these predictions, I’m going with a non-quarterback at this spot.
Christian McCaffrey came close to winning the OPOY award last season. He became the third running back in history with 1,000 rushing and receiving yards in a single season, broke his own record for most receptions in a season by a running back, and led the NFL with 403 touches for 2,392 yards and 19 rushing and receiving touchdowns. Even with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, McCaffrey should remain Carolina’s offensive engine.
With Drew Brees returning to New Orleans, Michael Thomas remains a frontrunner for the OPOY award. Thomas set the single-season receptions record last year, despite playing five games without Brees. The league’s other top offensive threats include Saquon Barkley, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, George Kittle and Travis Kelce.
Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Stephen Gilmore won the Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) award last season, snapping a five-year streak of sack artists taking home the title. While Gilmore remains a threat in 2020, I think pass-rushers won’t get denied for a second year in a row. Out of the NFL’s greatest sack-artists, Watt possesses some of the best versatility.
Last year, Watt amassed 55 tackles, 14.5 sacks, 36 quarterback hits, 59 pressures, eight forced fumbles, four fumble recoveries, two interceptions, and eight passes defensed. Defensive ends can’t compete with that sweeping dominance. Even outside linebackers like Chandler Jones, Khalil Mack, and Von Miller don’t match those numbers.
Of course, Aaron Donald should receive some looks for his third DPOY award. Donald claimed the award in 2017 and 2018 before coming back to Earth last season. Bobby Wagner remains one of the league’s most accomplished active defenders without a DPOY award. The 30-year-old linebacker has four consecutive First-Team All-Pro nominations.
Jamal Adams, Joey Bosa, Nick Bosa and Myles Garrett are only a few years into their careers, but they possess talent on par with Watt. It won’t come as a surprise if any of those four win their first DPOY award in 2020.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Out of the four quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, only Joe Burrow plans on starting in Week 1. After destroying college football last season and winning a National Championship with the LSU Tigers, Burrow has his eyes set on making an immediate impact in Cincinnati.
Burrow isn’t just relying on the hype either. He has a legitimate supporting cast. Jonah Williams will make his debut at left tackle after missing his entire rookie season. Joe Mixon recently signed a four-year, $48 million extension, which he earned by rushing for 2,305 yards over the past two seasons. Rookie Tee Higgins joins a wide receiver corps already featuring Tyler Boyd, A.J. Green, and John Ross.
While the Bengals have almost no chance of making the playoffs in 2020, Burrow has the pieces around him to succeed. The only threats to Burrow’s position as the Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) come from the plethora of receivers who claimed starting jobs in training camp.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Arizona Cardinals
Simmons dominated at Clemson, filling stat sheets across the board. In his final collegiate season, Simmons recorded 104 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss, eight sacks, and three interceptions from his linebacker position. The future 18th overall pick won the Dick Butkus Award as the nation’s top linebacker and took home the ACC Defensive Player of the Year award.
Some teams questioned whether playing linebacker or safety fit Simmons best at the NFL level. While the Consensus All-American played safety early during his time at Clemson, Simmons thrived most when he played linebacker. Arizona wants Simmons at linebacker for now, but he’ll see some snaps at safety and in the slot throughout the year.
Unlike with the OROY, the Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY) award isn’t cut and dry. Simmons’ versatility gives him a leg up on the competition, but other rookies have reasonable cases for winning this award. Derrick Brown, Kenneth Murray, Jeff Okudah, Patrick Queen, and Chase Young all enter the NFL with significant upside and immediate opportunities to earn Pro Bowl selections.