NFL picks and score predictions for Week 6 as the 2021 season continues.
Believe it or not, we’re already a third of the way through the 2021 NFL season. Five weeks of action are in the books, and we’ve got another round of gridiron greatness coming up that figures to deliver even more excitement, sadness and fantasy frustration.
Luckily, we’ve got you covered with the Week 6 edition of NFL picks and score predictions. Just as in years passed, I’ll never claim to know what the future holds. As it turns out, odds are high at least a few of my picks will be completely wrong. I will, however, make my selections based on research, experience and careful consideration.
The record wasn’t quite as impressive as I was hoping for, but at least I’ve been fairly consistent this season. After Week 5 was all said and done, my NFL picks had culminated in a 10-6 record, the same record I managed in Week 4. That brings my overall record on the year to 53-27, which is still solid all things considered.
Just remember that making picks is not a science. Plenty of research goes into it, but there’s no crystal ball — craziness occurs every Sunday. Then again, isn’t that part of the fun of it all?
Now that we’ve gotten all of that out of the way, here are my NFL picks and score predictions for Week 6. Just keep in mind that I assume no responsibility if you choose to place wagers based on my picks — that’s your decision, not mine.
Week 6 Byes: Atlanta Falcons (2-3), New Orleans Saints (3-2), New York Jets (1-4), San Francisco 49ers (2-3) | All point spreads and odds are courtesy of WynnBet.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)
Thursday, October 14, 8:15PM ET
Based on what we’ve seen from these two teams, it’s hard to imagine the Philadelphia Eagles coming away from this one with a win. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing some outstanding football, while the Eagles are playing, well, football.
Jalen Hurts is doing just enough to keep Philadelphia competitive. The Philly defense stepped up in Week 5, but hasn’t exactly been a reliable group for the season as a whole. As talented as the roster is on paper, the Eagles have failed to live up to their potential this season.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are everything we expected them to be. Tom Brady is still slinging it like the GOAT, and his bevy of offensive weapons are making plays when called upon. While the Tampa Bay defense has been giving up a ton of yards through the air, they’re more than capable of making stops when they matter.
Hurts tries his best to keep the Eagles in it, but this one gets out of hand by the fourth quarter. The Buccaneers run away with another win, while Philadelphia begins to wonder if it’s time to turn their attention to next year (or another quarterback).
Prediction: Buccaneers win 36-17 | Spread: Buccaneers (-7)
Miami Dolphins (1-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5)
Sunday, October 17, 9:30AM ET
Trevor Lawrence is going to get his first NFL win eventually, right? I thought the Jacksonville Jaguars were going to pull it off last week, but they fell short. Now up against the Miami Dolphins, it feels like their best chance yet to get that first victory under their belts.
And yet, I’m not sure I’m ready to give it to them. With Tua Tagovailoa potentially returning to the lineup this week, the Dolphins are going to be eager to end their four-game losing streak. If Tagovailoa can get back on the field, I’m thinking Miami finds a way to win it.
Plus, it’s not like the Jaguars possess an explosive offense capable of overloading the scoreboard. Lawrence has been inconsistent at best this season, and his eight interceptions have only hindered Jacksonville’s competitiveness. Miami’s defense is above average, and I anticipate them making life difficult for the rookie.
The Dolphins don’t seem like a real threat to make the playoffs, but they manage to keep their hopes alive for one more week. Meanwhile, the Jaguars ownership gets one step closer to ending the Urban Meyer experiment much sooner than expected.
Prediction: Dolphins win 18-13 | Spread: Dolphins (-3)
Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) at Washington Football Team (2-3)
Sunday, October 17, 1PM ET
Who on Earth would have guessed that the Kansas City Chiefs would be sitting at 2-3 five weeks into the season? If you’re raising your hand, you’re a liar. It’s crazy to see where the defending AFC champs sit, but that’s how it goes sometimes in the unpredictable NFL.
Luckily, they pull a much easier matchup this week — at least compared to what they’ve faced in the last three weeks. While the Washington Football Team is no pushover, they certainly don’t pose nearly as daunting of a threat as the Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers, or Buffalo Bills. Patrick Mahomes can breathe a quick sigh of relief.
Yes, the Washington defense is formidable, but it’s been beatable in 2021. And considering Mahomes’ talent and the talent of those around him, I can’t imagine one of the league’s best quarterbacks allowing his losing streak to extend to four games.
Taylor Heinicke does his best to keep things close, but the Kansas City defense comes up with a few big plays of their own and forces the young, inexperienced gunslinger into too many mistakes. The Chiefs finally get back on track with a much-needed win.
Prediction: Chiefs win 35-19 | Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)
Los Angeles Rams (4-1) at New York Giants (1-4)
Sunday, October 17, 1PM ET
I’m warning you now — this could be one of the ugliest games of the early 2021 campaign, at least on the New York Giants’ end. After an injury-riddled Week 5, their bare-bones offense could fail to do much of anything against the Los Angeles Rams’ elite defense.
This just isn’t the Giants’ season, as we’ve already seen. Saquon Barkley came back timid, and now is dealing with an ankle injury that could keep him out for some time. Then there’s Daniel Jones, who suffered a nasty concussion this past Sunday and might not be able to go against the Rams. If that’s the case, that means Mike Glennon will be under center. Yikes.
And seeing as the New York defense has underwhelmed this season, the Rams should have a field day on offense. Matthew Stafford is having an outstanding campaign, the ground game is getting rolling, and Cooper Kupp has been one of the league’s best receivers in 2021. Don’t be surprised if this one is out of hand by halftime.
The Giants looked like they had playoff potential coming into the season, but that idea has gone out the window. Let’s just hope New York can escape this one without suffering any additional injuries.
Prediction: Rams win 34-10 | Spread: Rams (-11)
Houston Texans (1-4) at Indianapolis Colts (1-4)
Sunday, October 17, 1PM ET
The spread seems a bit excessive considering both of these teams are 1-4, but it’s also fairly obvious that the Indianapolis Colts are the superior team. With that said, both the Colts and Houston Texans have flashed upside at times in 2021.
That’s why I’m hesitantly picking the Colts to win this one. Yes, they nearly took down the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night. They also blew a 22-point lead, and the Ravens have proven to be a fourth-quarter team. Carson Wentz has had an up-and-down season, so here’s to hoping it’s time for an up week for Indianapolis’ bipolar quarterback.
Plus, the Colts defense should be able to handle anything the Texans can throw at them. Assuming Davis Mills is still the starter, the Indianapolis defense should be prepared to keep Houston out of the end zone. Their secondary is beaten up, but they’ve got enough talent across the board on defense to avoid a complete meltdown.
Both squads desperately need a win heading into Week 6, but the Colts are the only one of the two that has any legitimate playoff potential this season. Indy gets the win and keeps their thinning postseason hopes alive.
Prediction: Colts win 23-16 | Spread: Colts (-10)
Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Detroit Lions (0-5)
Sunday, October 17, 1PM ET
The Detroit Lions have to get their first win eventually, right? I think they will, because they aren’t as bad as some of the other teams in the league that have already notched their first win. Unfortunately, I don’t think they get that initial W in Week 6.
The Cincinnati Bengals have been one of the biggest surprises of the 2021 campaign. With the Joe Burrow-JaMarr Chase connection paying immediate dividends and the Cincinnati defense exceeding expectations, the Bengals will remain relevant in the AFC playoff picture throughout the season.
I don’t see a scenario in which Jared Goff and the Lions keep up with Burrow and Co. Even if the Detroit offense plays well (which it has done at times this year), there’s no way their defense can provide enough support to keep the Bengals from pulling away.
The Lions keep it interesting, putting up a nice amount of points. Unfortunately, the well-rounded Cincinnati offense is too much for them to handle, resulting in an extended stay on the winless list for Detroit.
Prediction: Bengals win 31-23 | Spread: Bengals (-3.5)
Green Bay Packers (4-1) at Chicago Bears (3-2)
Sunday, October 17, 1PM ET
Since Aaron Rodgers took over as the starter for the Green Bay Packers, he’s gone an impressive 22-5 against the Chicago Bears. Their last win came at home, but it was back in December of 2018. It feels like Rodgers almost always has the Bears’ number.
Chances are that’ll continue to be the case in Week 6. Rodgers has been playing lights out this season as the Packers are riding a four-game winning streak. Although they nearly choked against the Bengals this past weekend, I believe they’ll be up to the task of slowing Justin Fields and the Bears offense.
Actually, the bigger problem will be the Chicago defense, which nearly nullified the Las Vegas Raiders offense in Week 5. However, as I’ve already indicated, Rodgers is no stranger to besting the Bears, as he’s done for pretty much his entire career.
With weapons like Davante Adams, Aaron Jones and Robert Tonyan to work with, Rodgers seems primed for a big day against Chicago. Look for him to light it up on Sunday, leaving Fields and the Bears wondering where they’d ever conjure that much offense from.
Prediction: Packers win 34-20 | Spread: Packers (-5)
Los Angeles Chargers (4-1) at Baltimore Ravens (4-1)
Sunday, October 17, 1PM ET
If you’re looking for a game to watch in Week 6, this needs to be it. These are two of the hottest teams in the NFL, both of which have made it a habit of setting off fireworks on Sundays. This could end up being one of the best matchups of the 2021 season.
And while I’m impressed with what the Baltimore Ravens have accomplished so far, I have to give the edge to the Los Angeles Chargers. Lamar Jackson is electric, but Justin Herbert may just be the next elite arm in the NFL. He’s already near the top of the MVP conversation, and has the Chargers looking like an unstoppable force in the AFC.
The Ravens simply can’t continue to dig themselves into holes in the second half. Because, as we saw in Week 5, Herbert and the Chargers offense is more than capable of burying any team, no matter who potent of an offense they possess.
Despite both clubs having exceptional defenses, this one could be a scoring bonanza. The Ravens yet again get off to a slow start, and the Chargers build a big enough lead to maintain it until the final whistle. Herbert’s MVP campaign continues in Maryland this upcoming Sunday.
Prediction: Chargers win 39-34 | Spread: Ravens (-3.5)
Minnesota Vikings (2-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-2)
Sunday, October 17, 1PM ET
Upset of the week? This seems like an upset, although even the Carolina Panthers probably aren’t convinced they’re the favorites in this one. Their early wins came against inferior competition, and now they’re coming off an ugly loss to the Eagles.
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings have been extremely hard to peg this season. They’re a couple of field goals away from being 4-1. They’re also a couple of fields away from being 0-5. The talent is there on paper, but they haven’t been able to put together a complete performance on both sides of the ball.
The reason why I’m giving this one to the Vikings is their reliable running game (even without Dalvin Cook) and their outstanding defensive front. I know the Panthers have their own impressive front seven, but Minnesota should be able to move the ball just enough to at least find the end zone a couple of times on Sunday.
I can’t say the same for the Panthers, who are dying without Christian McCaffrey in the lineup. Sam Darnold will have a tough time with the Vikings’ terrific pass rush, and a last-minute turnover drops Carolina to 3-3.
Prediction: Vikings win 25-23 | Spread: Panthers (-1)
Arizona Cardinals (5-0) at Cleveland Browns (3-2)
Sunday, October 17, 4:05PM ET
I’m sorry, but there’s no way the Cleveland Browns are going to contain the Arizona Cardinals. They couldn’t keep the Chargers from putting up 49 points, and might give up even more to one of the most dangerous and explosive offenses we’ve seen in years.
I know the Cardinals were relatively quiet in Week 5, but that was against a quality San Francisco defense. As we also saw in Week 5, the Browns don’t possess anything resembling that. In fact, it’s one of their biggest weaknesses and one of the reasons people aren’t quite buying Cleveland as legitimate contenders.
Look for Kyler Murray to have another career day for the Cardinals offense, finding his many weapons early and often on the way to copious yards and points. If you’ve got any of Arizona’s top offensive players on your fantasy team, you’d be wise to start them in Week 6.
The Browns will keep it from becoming a blowout with the help of their own talented offense, but they don’t have the talent to slow Murray. The Cardinals light up the scoreboard and continue their winning ways, remaining the only undefeated team in the league.
Prediction: Cardinals win 41-27 | Spread: Browns (-3)
Las Vegas Raiders (3-2) at Denver Broncos (3-2)
Sunday, October 17, 4:25PM ET
After a 3-0 start to the season, the Las Vegas Raiders have fallen back down to Earth with two straight losses. It’s not a good look for this squad, especially given the abrupt drama that has befallen them and their now-former head coach Jon Gruden.
Overcoming the Denver Broncos was already going to be tough enough, but now they’ve also got to withstand the off-field nonsense following Gruden’s resignation. Especially with their momentum already wavering, I don’t see them mustering enough courage to get the victory in Week 6.
Plus, it’s not like it’s going to be easy to score against the Denver defense, which has been outstanding this season. The Broncos figure to get after Derek Carr early and often, making it difficult to keep drives alive and put points on the board. We saw in Week 5 what happens when they run into a tough defense — the results weren’t pretty.
Teddy Bridgewater delivers for the Broncos, leading a steady Denver offense to another tough win against a quality opponent. The defense gets most of the credit, but the win against a division rival is the important takeaway.
Prediction: Broncos win 26-17 | Spread: Broncos (-3.5)
Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at New England Patriots (2-3)
Sunday, October 17, 4:25PM ET
The wins just keep coming for the Dallas Cowboys, who spanked the division rival Giants in Week 5 to move to 4-1. Now set to face the New England Patriots, I’m fairly confident they’ll walk away with yet another W as they enjoy their spot atop the NFC East.
Up to this point, I just haven’t seen enough from the Patriots. Mac Jones has done a decent job under center but has yet to be a game-changer for Bill Belichick’s group. The New England defense looked great to start the year, but got run over last week by a miserable Texans offense. I’ve lost what respect I had for that unit.
If they couldn’t handle Mills, they don’t stand a chance against Dak Prescott. Easily the leading candidate for Comeback Player of the Year, the outstanding Dallas quarterback has done everything anyone could have expected from him and then some. He’ll shred the New England defense on the way to plenty of points.
It’s just not the Patriots’ year, which is slowly losing its oddity in the post-Brady era. The same cannot be said for the Cowboys, who have quickly asserted themselves as one of the teams to beat in the NFC.
Prediction: Cowboys win 34-16 | Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)
Seattle Seahawks (2-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3)
Sunday, October 17, 8:20PM ET
If the Seattle Seahawks had Russell Wilson, this would be a different story. But while Geno Smith held his own after stepping in for Wilson in Week 5, there’s no way he’s going to shine against one of the best defenses in the NFL.
It’s going to be a big game for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who could use an additional confidence boost after finally snapping their three-game losing streak. It won’t be easy with JuJu Smith-Schuster now done for the year, but Ben Roethlisberger will make it work — he’s got one of the league’s most exciting young running backs to lean on.
Furthermore, the Steelers have an outstanding defense that can easily keep Smith in check. That’s not to say he won’t make a few plays and throw a touchdown or two, but he doesn’t pose the threat that Wilson does. T.J. Watt and Co. will bottle him up and keep the scoring to a minimum.
I’m still not sure if the Steelers are a contender this year — I’m leaning towards “not so much.” And while the long-term outlook for the Seahawks is more positive, the loss of Wilson may be too much to overcome against an elite defense. Pittsburgh gets the win and improves to 3-3.
Prediction: Steelers win 27-20 | Spread: Steelers (-4.5)
Buffalo Bills (4-1) at Tennessee Titans (3-2)
Monday, October 18, 8:15PM ET
Right now, the Buffalo Bills are among the most dangerous teams in the NFL. After thrashing three teams in a row, they took it to Mahomes and the Chiefs in primetime and have proven they can beat a quality team. I’m sure doubters remain, but I’m buying Buffalo.
Even more so against a Tennessee Titans team that, let’s be honest, hasn’t lived up to their 3-2 record so far. Their defense has been abysmal at times, their offensive line is a mess, and they could probably be as bad as 0-5 if it wasn’t for Derrick Henry. To say things haven’t gone as planned in Tennessee would be an understatement.
On Monday night, we’ll see just how bad things have gotten for the Titans. The Bills are going to run them over, throw in reverse, and run them over again while burning rubber on their flatten confidence. It’s going to be an ugly game.
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Josh Allen might even be on the bench by the time this one is done. The Tennessee defense is going to learn firsthand how hard is to slow down the Bills, while their offense meets a brick wall. Henry might have some success, but there won’t be many points for the Titans.
Prediction: Bills win 38-13 | Spread: Bills (-5)