NFL picks and score predictions for Week 12 as the 2021 season keeps rolling.
It’s starting to come down to the wire here. There are still seven weeks left before the 2021 NFL season comes to a close, but we’re quickly watching the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders. For now, though, let’s focus on making NFL picks for the upcoming week of action.
As usual, we’ve got you covered with the Week 12 edition of NFL picks and score predictions. Just as in years passed, I’ll never claim to know what the future holds. As it turns out, odds are high at least a few of my picks will be completely wrong. I will, however, make my selections based on research, experience, and careful consideration.
After a miserable Week 10, the results of my picks for Week 11 certainly played out much better — relatively. Following Monday night’s matchup, my Week 11 NFL picks had culminated in a 10-5 record. That bumps my overall record on the year to 108-56-1. I’ve had a few hiccups throughout the season, but I’m still pretty happy with the results thus far.
Making NFL picks and predictions for Week 12
Just remember that making picks is not a science. Plenty of research goes into it, but there’s no crystal ball — craziness occurs every Sunday. Then again, isn’t that part of the fun of it all?
Now that we’ve gotten all of that out of the way, here are my NFL picks and score predictions for Week 12. Just keep in mind that I assume no responsibility if you choose to place wagers based on my picks — that’s your decision, not mine.
Week 12 Byes: Arizona Cardinals (9-2), Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) | All point spreads and odds are courtesy of WynnBet.
Detroit Lions (0-9-1) at Chicago Bears (3-7)
Thursday, November 25 12:30PM ET
As if things weren’t already bad enough for the Detroit Lions, they managed to lose their already underwhelming quarterback and replace him with another awful option under center. That won’t do them any favors on Thanksgiving Day against a decent Chicago Bears defense.
More than likely, the Bears defense is going to have a field day against whoever the Lions have at quarterback — it’s looking like Tim Boyle will get the call. Assuming that is the case, it would be wise to pick up the Chicago defense in fantasy.
As for the Bears’ offensive approach, they’ll just be looking to conjure enough points to outscore what will be an abysmal Detroit offense. It’s unclear whether it’ll be Justin Fields (injured his ribs in Week 11) or Andy Dalton starting, but chances are they’ll still prove far more effective for the Bears than Boyle will be for the Lions.
Odds are the Chicago defense gets the job done in this one, and the Bears rely on the running game to drain the clock. This ends up being a low-scoring affair that shows just how rough the bottom half of the NFC North is in 2021.
Prediction: Bears win 17-9 | Spread: Bears (-3.5)
Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
Thursday, November 25, 4:30PM ET
Apparently the Kansas City Chiefs are back, because they put a real hurting on the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11. Holding the top-ranked offense to only nine points is certainly impressive. Still, I don’t think the Cowboys are going to stay down long after taking that punch to the gut.
It also helps that they’ve got the Las Vegas Raiders coming to town. In case you missed it, the Raiders have been a bit out of sorts as of late. They’ve lost their last three games, and continue to crumble in pressure situations. The off-field drama may have just been too much for this franchise to handle in 2021.
Either way, the odds of the Raiders upsetting the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day seem long at best. Dallas’ offense will be revving for a chance at redemption, and their defense isn’t going to give Derek Carr an inch. More than likely, this could be an ugly game for Las Vegas that sees fans turning the channel before the third quarter is over.
Despite the ugly loss, the Cowboys are still one of the best teams in the NFC. We’ll see evidence of that on Thanksgiving, when they stuff the football down the Las Vegas defense’s throat and send the Raiders packing like a bunch of bloated, over-full relatives.
Prediction: Cowboys win 41-17 | Spread: Cowboys (-7)
Buffalo Bills (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (5-5)
Thursday, November 25, 8:20PM ET
The Buffalo Bills may be one of the NFL’s most bipolar teams in recent memory. They’ve got the talent to come out and smoke just about anyone on any given Sunday, but they also possess the potential to deliver a pitiful performance like the one they mustered in Week 11.
For now, though, I’m going to assume that was a rather significant (but inconsistent) hiccup. They’ve been great at times this season, often looking like the cream of the crop in the AFC. If they can string together some more consistent efforts down the stretch, there’s no reason to believe they couldn’t be among the conference’s favorites to go the distance.
The New Orleans Saints will do their best to stop that train before it leaves the station, but I don’t see that happening. Their offense takes too long to get going with Trevor Siemian under center and Alvin Kamara still working his way back from injury. The Bills defense is too good, and the Josh Allen is too dangerous — when he wants to be.
New Orleans will do enough to keep this one from getting out of hand. In the end, though, the Bills will play some of their best football and avoid another meltdown like they suffered at the hands of the Colts. Then again, maybe Indianapolis is just that good…
Prediction: Bills win 34-23 | Spread: Bills (-4.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) at Indianapolis Colts (6-5)
Sunday, November 28, 1PM ET
I think now is as good of a time as any to designate the Indianapolis Colts as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. We knew they had the pieces coming into the season, but a slow start turned them into a sleeper. Well, they’ve woken up.
Over the last few games, we’ve watched Jonathan Taylor blossom into one of the NFL’s most dynamic talents. He’s running through, around and over any defense that’s put in his way. As if that wasn’t enough, Carson Wentz is playing well and the Indianapolis defense is playing like the dominant unit they appeared to be heading into 2021.
While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the defending champs and have their own claim to contender status, they haven’t been nearly as dominant down the stretch. They won this past Monday night, but couldn’t come up with wins in their two previous outings.
It’s time to admit that Tom Brady can’t help the Buccaneers overcome everything. That’s not to say they won’t be one of the NFC’s best by season’s end, but they aren’t invincible. Neither are the Colts, but Taylor is doing everything in his power to make it seem that way.
Prediction: Colts win 32-26 | Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)
New York Jets (2-8) at Houston Texans (2-8)
Sunday, November 28, 1PM ET
It’s absurd how unpredictable the 2021 NFL campaign has been. I don’t think anyone expected the Houston Texans to take down the Tennessee Titans this past weekend, but it happened. Now, the Texans may actually be able to start a winning streak — as weird as that may seem.
We all knew the Texans offense is dangerous when Tyrod Taylor is running the show. While he’s no superstar under center, he’s more than capable of taking advantage of a suspect defense. That’s exactly what the New York Jets have, which leaves me to believe the Texans stand a legitimate shot at winning in Week 12.
It doesn’t do much for them besides hurt their positioning in 2022 NFL draft order, but it’s a morale win at least. Houston isn’t going to be making a run at the playoffs this late in the season, but it’s a sign that they’re capable of being competitive. Now they just need to focus on making upgrades this upcoming offseason.
The Jets suffer another setback, as what once appeared to be a promising season has gone up in flames. New York will just be hoping to escape this one without completely melting down and giving up an avalanche of points to their opponent.
Prediction: Texans win 26-20 | Spread: Texans (-2.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (5-6) at New York Giants (3-7)
Sunday, November 28, 1PM ET
It’s true — the Philadelphia Eagles are far from perfect. Heck, for much of the season, they looked like a heavily flawed club that relied solely on Jalen Hurts‘ legs and the occasion big play on defense to stay competitive. Now, I’m thinking they may actually be a quality team.
It’s all come together for the Eagles. Their defense seems to get better every week, and its shown itself to be one of the most opportunistic bunches in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks can’t afford to make mistakes against the Philadelphia D, and Daniel Jones isn’t exactly the best at keeping the ball away from the opposing secondary.
Also, Hurts is coming into his own as the leader of this Eagles offense. He may not be the superstar quarterback every team longs for, but he wins with grit, athleticism and tenacity. As long as the score isn’t completely out of hand, Philadelphia seems to have a shot with him at the helm.
The New York Giants have underwhelmed this year, and time is running out for them to change the narrative. Unless they pull out a victory in this NFC East showdown, it’s looking like their attention may soon be turning to 2022.
Prediction: Eagles win 30-21 | Spread: Eagles (-3)
Carolina Panthers (5-6) at Miami Dolphins (4-7)
Sunday, November 28, 1PM ET
After their hot start to the season, I don’t remember having much confidence in the Carolina Panthers. It’s almost as if their early string of wins was all a fluke, and we’re now seeing the real Panthers squad. What we’re seeing isn’t all that pretty.
Meanwhile, with the Miami Dolphins, it appears to be the opposite. After a 1-7 start the campaign, the Dolphins have rattled off three consecutive victories and appear eager for more. Although I wouldn’t go considering them a sleeper playoff team just yet, the pieces are falling into place for Miami to keep the wins coming.
It starts with Tua Tagovailoa, who’s getting back to full health and making the most of his playmakers. Jaylen Waddle has emerged as a dangerous threat in the passing game, and even the Miami ground game and get going at times. Tie in the Dolphins’ constantly improving defense, and you’ve got a recipe for some late-season success.
As for the Panthers, they’re only staying afloat because of their defense. Even with Cam Newton taking over for Sam Darnold, it hasn’t been enough. Christian McCaffrey will do everything in his power to guide Carolina to victory, but the Dolphins squeak out the W.
Prediction: Dolphins win 23-21 | Spread: Panthers (-1)
Tennessee Titans (8-3) at New England Patriots (7-4)
Sunday, November 28, 1PM ET
It’s clear at this point that the Titans offense is struggling to keep them in games. They’re coming off against an embarrassing defeat at the hands of the Texans, and now go on the road to face one of the hottest teams in the NFL.
I find it hard to imagine the Titans coming out on top against the New England Patriots. Their defense is easily one of the best in the league, and their offense hasn’t been too shabby either. Watching Ryan Tannehill throw four interceptions in Week 11, the Patriots secondary has to drooling at the potential opportunities they could see in Week 12.
And if Taylor and Co. can score 22 points against the Tennessee defense, Mac Jones should have no problem hanging at least 30 on that defense. Between his passing abilities and New England’s diverse, efficient ground game, the Patriots seem destined for a big game on both sides of the ball.
The Titans looked like a clear frontrunner in the AFC, but the injury to Derrick Henry has tanked their stock. We’ll see it fall even further in Week 12 when the Patriots deal them a whooping.
Prediction: Patriots win 34-16 | Spread: Patriots (-6)
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)
Sunday, November 28, 1PM ET
This could end up being one of the most exciting games of the week. Not only is it a battle for positioning in the AFC North, but it’s also a showdown between two teams trying to build momentum heading into the final stretch of the season.
We’ve seen promising performances from both the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers this year. We’ve also seen letdowns from both squads, but when AFC North rivals go head-to-head, rarely do we see letdowns. More than likely, this one will be full of fireworks.
Expect to see plenty of Joe Mixon in this one, as the Steelers defense has had a surprisingly hard time slowing opposing rushers in 2021. That, however, doesn’t mean we won’t see Joe Burrow put up big numbers the same way Herbert did against Pittsburgh in Week 11. Then again, the Steelers will rack up plenty of yardage as well between Ben Roethlisberger and Najee Harris.
When the final whistle blows, though, the Bengals will hold a slim lead that helps them keep pace with the Ravens in the division. It’ll be another epic showdown between two rivals that’s sure to have AFC playoff positioning implications.
Prediction: Bengals win 37-34 | Spread: Bengals (-3.5)
Atlanta Falcons (4-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)
Sunday, November 28, 1PM ET
All season long, I’ve been saying that the Atlanta Falcons were better than their record indicated. However, after that miserable shellacking they suffered in Week 11, my confidence in their ability to beat even subpar teams is nearly depleted.
That’s why I’m picking the Jacksonville Jaguars to pull off the upset victory in Week 12. Yes, they’ve been similarly miserable for much of this season. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t quite lived up to the hype, the offense struggles to get going more often than not, and the Jacksonville defense hasn’t been much better.
Unfortunately for the Falcons, I don’t think any of that will matter this upcoming Sunday. Instead, I think they’ll be so demoralized from last week’s beating that they won’t be able to bounce back — at least not yet.
The Jaguars get their third win of the season, and the Falcons’ faint playoff hopes take a near-fatal blow. It’s time for both of these clubs to go back to the drawing board, but at least Jacksonville can bask in its third win of the season. Who knows, it may even be enough to save Urban Meyer’s job for another year.
Prediction: Jaguars win 18-16 | Spread: Falcons (-1)
Los Angeles Chargers (6-4) at Denver Broncos (5-5)
Sunday, November 28, 4:05PM ET
It’s been a rollercoaster ride for the Los Angeles Chargers. Just when I think they’re starting to hit their stride and emerge as one of the AFC’s top dogs, they stumble. Maybe they’ll actually be able to keep their momentum rolling this week against the Denver Broncos?
It’s possible. Sure, the Broncos boast an exceptional defense that’s sure to give Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler all they can handle. At the same time, I’m not sure if the Denver offense has enough firepower to outscore the Chargers, even if they don’t score as often as they’re capable of.
Can Teddy Bridgewater keep up in a shootout? It’s not impossible, but unlikely. And while the Los Angeles defense has been suspect at times this season, they’ve done a decent job of making big plays in the clutch. Even when they do give up big points, it’s usually against dangerous offenses. I wouldn’t put the Broncos in that category.
This one will be close, as many AFC West battles are. In the end, though, the Denver offense isn’t capable of keeping up int he scoring department as the Chargers come away with their third win in the last four weeks.
Prediction: Chargers win 23-17 | Spread: Chargers (-3)
Los Angeles Rams (7-3) at Green Bay Packers (8-3)
Sunday, November 28, 4:25PM ET
We all knew the additions of Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. weren’t suddenly going to turn the Los Angeles Rams into a super team, right? It takes time, even for stars, to shine bright in new situations. Maybe it’s time for this Rams team to unlock its potential?
The Green Bay Packers are already reeling after a surprise upset at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings. Sure, the Packers held their own and took it down to the final seconds before being handed a defeat. And yet, we got another reminder that this Green Bay squad isn’t perfect.
Then again, neither are the Rams. However, on paper at least, they’re the superior team. They’ve got one of the most talented defenses in the league, and an explosive passing game capable of lighting up the scoreboard. We’ve seen dominant performances from Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and the rest of the Rams offense already this season.
Is more coming? We’ll see on Sunday, but it seems like it. The Green Bay defense isn’t as dominant as it appeared to be, especially after giving up 34 points to the Vikings. If the Rams have their way, they’ll be back on track and avoid extending their losing streak to three games.
Prediction: Rams win 37-32 | Spread: Packers (-1)
Minnesota Vikings (5-5) at San Francisco 49ers (5-5)
Sunday, November 28, 4:25PM ET
Is it finally time for the Minnesota Vikings to be taken seriously? Then again, is it finally time for the San Francisco 49ers to be taken seriously? It’s as if both of these clubs decided it was getting late in the season so why not finally play up to their potential.
The Vikings have won two straight games and are squarely in the hunt for an NFC Wild Card slot. They just knocked off the NFC-leading Packers and are riding high, with Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson all playing integral roles in their recent success. If the Minnesota defense can continue to up its play as well, the Vikings could be dangerous.
The same can be said for the 49ers, who are finally starting to get healthy after an injury-riddled start to the season. San Francisco’s offense is firing on all cylinders, as the return of George Kittle seems to have spurred them to sudden success. As long as Jimmy Garoppolo can continue to rely on Kittle and Deebo Samuel, the going should be good for the 49ers.
This one will, as all Vikings games have this season, come down to the wire. My guess is Minnesota makes a clutch stop in the final seconds to keep San Francisco in check and tally their third win in as many weeks.
Prediction: Vikings win 28-26 | Spread: 49ers (-3)
Cleveland Browns (6-5) at Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
Sunday, November 28, 8:20PM ET
Right now, the Cleveland Browns aren’t okay. They’re banged up, and Baker Mayfield isn’t playing like his usual self. It’s clear that injuries have taken a big bite of this squad, and it’s going to hurt their playoff hopes as we work our way through the final few weeks.
It doesn’t help the Browns’ odds that the Baltimore defense is still playing some solid football. They’ve done a good job of bailing out the Ravens when the offense isn’t clicking, and playing an integral role in their Week 11 win. Now it’ll do the same in Week 12, creating key turnovers and limiting the Cleveland offense to minimal success.
The Ravens will be even better off if Lamar Jackson can get back on the field after missing their Week 11 game due to illness. Injecting his dynamic talents into the gameplan will further Baltimore’s goal of knocking off this divisional rival.
Even if Jackson can’t go, I still think the Ravens get the job done. They’ll rely on their defense and running game, with Tyler Huntley doing just enough to get them over the hump. It’s not looking good for the Browns as the losses continue to pile up.
Prediction: Ravens win 23-17 | Spread: Ravens (-4.5)
Seattle Seahawks (3-7) at Washington Football Team (4-6)
Monday, November 29, 8:15PM ET
I hate to say it, but I think it’s time for this Seattle Seahawks squad to shut it down. They’re bruised up, injured all over the place and failing to win games — both those they should and shouldn’t win. It’s clear that 2021 just isn’t their season.
Russell Wilson may have made an early return from injury, but he hasn’t been the same since. In the two games he’s been back on the field for, he’s thrown zero touchdowns and two interceptions, and has completed just a smidge over 50 percent of his passes. In that same timeframe, the Seahawks have been outscored 40-13.
It’s great that he’s back, but it’s clear he’s not ready to help this team win. And with the defense struggling, Chris Carson done for the year and the offensive line having a tough time keeping Wilson protected, it’s almost better to pack it up and avoid further damage.
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But that’s beside the point of this piece. So all I’m going to say is that the Washington Football Team gets the win, relying on Taylor Heinicke and their defense to stay relevant in the hunt for the final NFC Wild Card spot.
Prediction: Washington wins 27-17 | Spread: Seahawks (-1)