The NFL just gets better and better by the week, doesn’t it? During Week 11 action, we may not have seen a game quite as great as Week 10’s matchup between the Bills and Vikings, but it was yet another weekend full of twists and turns around the league and our NFL picks from last week are reflective of that. Coming off of a pretty brutal week of picks in Week 10, Week 11 needed to be a bounce-back week.
How did we do? Heading into Monday Night Football, we’re sitting here with a 6-7 picks record banking on the 49ers to get us back up to .500 for the week. What in the world happened to the 11-5 streak we had going a few weeks back? Some of the upset picks are not working out, so instead of making picks that go with the gut instead of the head, we’re going to pick a little less emotionally here in Week 12.
Thanksgiving Day has a full slate of entertaining matchups starting with one game that could end up having some serious offensive fireworks in Detroit. Let’s get to our Week 12 NFL picks and predictions.
2022 NFL picks and predictions for Week 12
Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Detroit Lions (4-6)
Thursday, November 24, 12:30 PM ET
Not to just come right out and kick things off with some hyperbole, but the first game of Week 12 of the 2022 NFL season could end up being the most entertaining game of the entire week.
The Detroit Lions have been one of the most fun teams to watch all season long, even when they were losing games early. This team has been scoring a ton of points all year and their offensive production is coming from a variety of players, which has been great to see. One week it’s Jamaal Williams (okay, every week it’s Jamaal Williams), another it’s D’Andre Swift. One week it’s Amon-Ra St. Brown, the next week it’s Josh Reynolds.
The Lions are an exciting offensive team, playing at home, and enjoying a really fun three-game winning streak. The Buffalo Bills have been slightly volatile this season and oddly enough, just played a home game this past weekend in Detroit while the Lions were out winning in East Rutherford.
Could Detroit actually do this thing? Could they come out on Thanksgiving and extend their winning streak to four games? I said I wasn’t going to pick games from a place of emotion this week, but maybe for this one, I’ll make an exception. It would be a ton of fun to see the Lions win on Thanksgiving against a great team like Buffalo, so I’m going to try to manifest it.
Prediction: Lions win 31-29
New York Giants (7-3) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
Thursday, November 24, 4:30 PM ET
At this particular point in time, I think the Dallas Cowboys are validating all the nice things I said about them during the offseason and preseason, which is that they are one of the more complete teams in the entire NFL. Having the added benefit of continuity on a coaching staff that is great for the player personnel is a major advantage for Dallas this season, and we’re seeing the fruit of everything coming together with the team going on a nice winning streak when Dak Prescott was out, and now playing its best game of the season in Week 11.
The Cowboys went into Minneapolis and absolutely destroyed the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have seemingly been due for a letdown for a few weeks and nobody really saw this past weekend’s outcome coming after the Vikings won in overtime against Buffalo two weekends ago and the Cowboys lost a stunner to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
Dallas took advantage of every possible opportunity they were given in Minnesota, and they might have just scored again even as I’m typing this. They were firing on all cylinders on both sides of the ball.
On the other side of this matchup, the New York Giants have come crashing down to earth in the last handful of weeks. The Giants were one of the hottest teams to start the 2022 season, but things have since cooled off for them and they are now even with the Cowboys at 7-3 heading into Thanksgiving.
This is a matchup that I think just drastically favors the Cowboys. Coming home off of a dominant win, the offense playing as well as it is with the defense causing problems all year. The Giants simply don’t have the firepower offensively, in my mind, to keep up with the version of Dallas that we saw on Sunday.
Prediction: Cowboys win 27-20
New England Patriots (6-4) at Minnesota Vikings (8-2)
Thursday, November 24, 8:20 PM ET
Capping off the Thanksgiving slate of games is a really intriguing matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots. Let’s look at the recent stretch of games for the Vikings first and foremost.
The Vikings have been winning on a regular basis this season. Before Sunday’s absolute debacle against the Dallas Cowboys, the Vikings were just riding that winning feeling. Kirk Cousins was celebrating shirtless on the team plane, the Vikings got a road win against Buffalo of all teams, and head coach Kevin O’Connell was looking like a three-point shooter that simply couldn’t miss out there.
The Vikings’ winning feeling came screeching to a halt on Sunday when Dallas came to town and like a 90s movie villain took the Vikings’ lunch money, gave them a wedgie, and shoved them into a locker. The Vikings got beat up, embarrassed, and smacked to the ground against Dallas, and they don’t have very long to lick their wounds. They’ve got Bill Belichick’s defense coming to town and that defense has put forth some impressive performances of late.
New England Patriots key defensive numbers in 2022
- 5 wins in last 6 games
- 38 points allowed in those five wins
- 2nd in NFL in scoring defense (season as a whole)
- 87 passing yards allowed in last 2 games COMBINED
The last statistic seems like a typo, but it’s not. The Patriots have allowed 87 passing yards in their last two games, wins against the Colts and Jets.
Can Justin Jefferson — probably the best receiver in the league this year — get the better of Bill Belichick, or is the Master going to school the rookie NFL head coach on his own home field in this one?
Prediction: Patriots win 23-16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) at Cleveland Browns (3-7)
Sunday, November 27, 1:00 ET
To say it’s been a difficult and dramatic year for both Tom Brady and the Buccaneers would be arguably the understatement of 2022. It’s been a borderline devastating year for both Brady and his team since his decision to return to football, but on the field, the Bucs have seemingly turned things around of late.
They have won two straight games and even at 5-5 this season, they are in first place in the very weak NFC South. The Panthers and Saints are currently right on their heels — believe it or not — but the Bucs are currently in control. Heck, even the Panthers aren’t too far off at 3-7 right now.
The Bucs have business to take care of this weekend in Cleveland and coming out of the bye week, you typically expect a very focused Tom Brady-led team. The Browns haven’t been able to just run over every team with Nick Chubb this season, go figure, but they have had some impressive offensive outputs throughout the season, albeit inconsistently. Even with spurts of strong offensive production, I don’t know how you can trust the Browns — even playing at home — in terms of NFL picks for this week.
Even if you’re just betting on Tom Brady over Jacoby Brissett, I think you know where this one is heading.
The Browns could end up having a huge game on the ground and the Buccaneers could falter as they have a number of times this season. With that said, it does look like this Tampa Bay team may have turned the proverbial corner at least to a degree, and I’m banking on Brady here as the Browns go one more week without Deshaun Watson under center.
Prediction: Buccaneers win 22-17
Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) at Tennessee Titans (7-3)
Sunday, November 27, 1:00 ET
There haven’t been any rumors of this particular game getting flexed into the Sunday Night Football slot for Week 12, but this is certainly one of the top NFL games on the schedule for Week 12.
The Cincinnati Bengals got off to a slow start again here in 2022, much like they did in 2021, but they have found their groove much quicker in 2022 than they were able to in 2021. The Bengals have been an unstoppable force lately in terms of scoring points. Let’s take a look through this team’s recent stretch of winning, which includes four victories in their last five games.
- Week 6: 30 points
- Week 7: 35 points
- Week 9: 42 points
- Week 11: 37 points
A bizarre loss to the Browns on Halloween and a bye week are mixed in that timeframe, but the Bengals’ offense has shown to be one of the most potent in the league in recent weeks. Now, let’s look at the Tennessee Titans, who have been on one of the quietest streaks of their own in the last month or so.
- Week 7: 10 points allowed
- Week 8: 10 points allowed
- Week 9: 20 points allowed (to Kansas City, in overtime)
- Week 10: 10 points allowed
- Week 11: 17 points allowed
This is best on best right now, as good as it gets in the NFL. Which is going to win out — The Titans’ defense playing at home, or Cincinnati’s white-hot offense playing on the road?
Prediction: Titans win 24-23
Houston Texans (1-8-1) at Miami Dolphins (7-3)
Sunday, November 27, 1:00 ET
Through the first 10 games of the 2022 NFL season, the Houston Texans have pretty much been as-advertised, at least in terms of how a lot of people saw them coming into this season. Houston was obviously taking on a lot of change in the offseason and rolling with Davis Mills at the quarterback position, rightfully giving the young QB a shot after he showed pretty well in the team’s second half of 2021.
So far this season, the evaluation on Mills has clearly proven that Houston needs to go a new (better) direction at the QB position. They are now well-equipped with draft picks thanks to a blockbuster trade with the Cleveland Browns involving quarterback Deshaun Watson. For the longest time, many people thought it would be the Miami Dolphins getting Watson, sending Tua Tagovailoa back to the Texans.
Instead, the Dolphins stuck with Tua, even to the point that they fired Brian Flores to stick with that decision, and the former top pick out of Alabama has responded by playing legitimate MVP-caliber ball through the first 10 games of 2022.
Tua’s progression along with the progression of Jaylen Waddle and the addition of Tyreek Hill have made this offense — led by head coach Mike McDaniel — an overnight success. The Dolphins have legitimately one of the best overall operations in the NFL right now and they are torching teams, ranking:
- 6th in points per game
- 3rd in total yards
- 2nd in passing
- 10th in 3rd down efficiency
- 6th in red zone efficiency
The Dolphins need only to show up in this game, right?
Prediction: Dolphins win 32-17
Chicago Bears (3-8) at New York Jets (6-4)
Sunday, November 27, 1:00 ET
The Chicago Bears have had a really frustrating month or so on top of the frustrating 3-8 record they “boast” at this point in the 2022 season. Over the last four or five weeks, the offense led by coordinator Luke Getsy and quarterback Justin Fields has made some impressive strides. Fields has become a dynamic weapon and is improving as a passer, but despite the increase in offensive productivity and points scored, the Bears are still losing games.
What’s weird is that early in the season, this was a team that was grinding out some tough wins despite poor offensive production. Now that the offensive output is there, the defense has been letting the team down.
Chicago Bears last five weeks, offensively
- Week 7: 33 points (win vs. Patriots)
- Week 8: 29 points (loss)
- Week 9: 32 points (loss)
- Week 10: 30 points (loss)
- Week 11: 24 points (loss)
A lot of teams would kill to have 29 or more points in four of their last five games. Just ask the Denver Broncos or Indianapolis Colts. The Bears have the offense moving the ball and scoring, but they can’t stop the other team from doing the same.
Fortunately for them, they are about to take on one of the most incompetent offenses in the NFL and one of the league’s worst quarterbacks in Week 12 with a road matchup against the New York Jets. Wilson has been bad enough in recent weeks that a lot of people are thinking the Jets would be better off with Joe Flacco right now, and given the fact that the playoffs are on the line, that’s hard to argue. Wilson has truly been that bad.
If the Jets make a switch and go with Flacco this week, I think they are probably going to win this game by a field goal. But at the time of this writing, it’s Justin Fields vs. his 2021 classmate Zach Wilson. Given how well the Bears’ offense has played the last five weeks, I’m taking the Bears on the road, even against Robert Saleh’s strong defense.
Prediction: Bears win 25-19
Atlanta Falcons (5-6) at Washington Commanders (6-5)
Sunday, November 27, 1:00 ET
Washington Commanders quarterback Taylor Heinicke is putting together a pretty impressive collection of Air Jordan sneakers these days.
https://twitter.com/nicekicks/status/1594455830673358848
For the sneakerheads out there, seeing Taylor Heinicke get a bonus for winning and spending some of his bonus check on a pair of Jordans is one of those “living vicarious” feelings, especially with the Travis Scott Jordan 4 that he just secured after beating the Houston Texans on Sunday.
If the Washington Commanders can go ahead and beat the Atlanta Falcons, perhaps the Jordan 1 “Lost & Found” will be making their way to Heinicke’s closet in the near future. The Atlanta Falcons are going to do everything in their power to keep that from happening, and they certainly have the offensive firepower to do it.
Although, their job got a little harder on Monday with news that Kyle Pitts, one of the team’s top offensive weapons, would be unavailable for at least the next four weeks after going on IR with an MCL injury. The Commanders and Heinicke have a better shot at those red and black Jordans with Chase Young making his 2022 debut on Sunday, chasing after Marcus Mariota and — for their sake — hopefully forcing him to stay in the pocket and throw.
Will Taylor Heinicke be coming away with the original “Chicago” colorway of the Jordan shoes this week? Will he go for the “Breds” instead? Or will the Falcons go on the road and spoil all of the sneakerhead fun in Washington?
I’m riding this wave with Heinicke and the Commanders right now, especially with their already tough defensive front now getting the chance to see Chase Young in action for the first time this season.
Prediction: Commanders win 24-20
Denver Broncos (3-7) at Carolina Panthers (3-8)
Sunday, November 27, 1:00 ET
Looking around the NFL, there’s probably not a matchup of two teams in the league this coming weekend that are more in “evaluation mode” than this game between the 3-7 Denver Broncos and the 3-8 Carolina Panthers.
While some expected the Panthers to be bad this year given their QB position, most people expected the Denver Broncos to be much better for the same reason. For the last couple of years, the Denver Broncos have been just a “quarterback away”, but as it turns out, it’s a bit more complicated than that. The Broncos hired Nathaniel Hackett away from the Green Bay Packers in the offseason, and Hackett has not been impressive as a head coach.
He’s already given up game management duties and now has relinquished play-calling duties to quarterbacks coach Klint Kubiak. What exactly do you do around here, Nate?
The Broncos enter this week’s road matchup against the Panthers as one of the NFL’s most pathetic offenses in the modern football era. They are barely averaging two scores per game right now and have still somehow been involved in one-score games every single week.
For a while, I was anticipating some “get-right” games for the Broncos but that hasn’t happened. Thankfully for Denver, the Panthers are kind of just as big of a mess right now. They have no long-term solution at QB, they traded Christian McCaffrey, they fired their coach in-season, and their present roster is going to look a lot different in the next five or six months.
Still, just like Nathaniel Hackett said before his team’s loss to the Raiders on Sunday, “somebody’s got to win this game.”
Prediction: Broncos win 22-16
Baltimore Ravens (7-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)
Sunday, November 27, 1:00 ET
Capping off the early slate of games, we have the Jacksonville Jaguars returning from their bye week to take on the Baltimore Ravens, who have been pretty hot as of late. The Ravens are now 7-3 after winning four straight games, five of their last six overall.
Somewhat quietly, the Ravens have risen to the top of the AFC North after 10 games and they rank in the top 10 in scoring offense as well as scoring defense. The trade they made for Roquan Smith before the NFL’s trade deadline with the Chicago Bears has been paying off as Smith has 12 tackles, a tackle for loss, and a sack in his first two games as a Raven.
Smith is going to have to play a big game against Jacksonville to slow down one of the top breakout players of the entire 2022 NFL season, Jaguars running back Travis Etienne.
Etienne has been downright dominant at times this season, averaging 7.6 yards per carry from weeks 5-8. Unfortunately, Etienne’s dominance in the running game hasn’t translated to many wins for the Jaguars, though they were able to get their third win of the season a few weeks back against the Las Vegas Raiders thanks to Etienne running for 109 yards and scoring a pair of touchdowns.
Can Etienne carry the Jaguars’ offense coming out of the bye week against a hot Ravens team? This may not be a “trap” game for Baltimore, because their next two games after this are against the Broncos and Steelers, but this certainly has the feel of a potential speed bump for a team that is on a nice winning streak.
It might be a little bit bold to not just take the better team outright here, but the Jaguars coming off of a bye week against a Ravens team that ranks 27th against the pass this season seems like it could be a recipe for the end of their current winning streak.
Prediction: Jaguars win 27-23
Los Angeles Chargers (5-5) at Arizona Cardinals (4-7)
Sunday, November 27, 4:05 ET
Over the course of Justin Herbert’s career, the former Oregon Ducks star has 11 game-winning drives in the 4th quarter. Unfortunately, at this point in his career, so much of what he’s done on the field is being defined by failures in the fourth quarter. Whether it’s on him or someone else on the Chargers, this team simply cannot close out games.
That’s likely going to get Brandon Staley canned if the Chargers can’t find a way to make the playoffs with one of the best quarterbacks in the league for three straight years. Herbert is the kind of guy most NFL general managers would sell their souls for at the quarterback position. He’s absolutely a “create-a-player” out there but it hasn’t really mattered for the Chargers.
This is year three. There’s no more “next year” for this team. There’s no more time to be patient or let things develop. Yes, injuries happen and things like that, but the expectations for any team with a quarterback at the level of Herbert are understandably high.
And the Chargers are falling short, but they have a chance to get things right when they travel this coming week to take on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals are another team right now just simply failing to live up to expectations, in a similar boat to the Los Angeles Chargers. Kliff Kingsbury was brought in and Kyler Murray drafted specifically to run his offense. At this point, there seems to be a lot of friction between the Cardinals’ brain trust, but stringing together some wins could cure all. The NFC West is still wide open right now and Arizona has a chance to beat a really good QB and get back on track in the NFC West.
Prediction: Cardinals win 28-24
Las Vegas Raiders (3-7) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
Sunday, November 27, 4:05 ET
The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-7 this season with two of their wins coming at the expense of the Denver Broncos. The duo of Davante Adams and Derek Carr has been productive statistically, but this team is missing the mark in so many other ways. If they play like they did against the Denver Broncos every single week, the Raiders would be a really tough out for any team.
Derek Carr made clutch plays down the stretch. Josh Jacobs was looking like vintage Adrian Peterson out there. Davante Adams was getting the better of maybe the best corner in the game in Pat Surtain. The Raiders’ defense led by Maxx Crosby was playing fast and smart, making plays and changing the game with timely sacks and a blocked field goal.
Things looked really great for Josh McDaniels’ team on Sunday against Denver but will it continue this coming week as they take on Russell Wilson’s old team in Seattle? I’m not so sure.
The Raiders have to go back on the road again and take on one of the NFL’s best stories of 2022. Seattle has seen an incredible rise this season from former backup quarterback Geno Smith, who went from being in a camp competition with Drew Lock to being one of the better QBs in the NFC.
Before their bye week, the Seahawks got beat in Germany by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Was that more of a stumbling block or a sign that this team is headed into a downward spiral? At least for one more week, I’m still buying the Seahawks as a legit contender in the NFC West and I think we’re going to see them — led by star rookie running back Kenneth Walker — squeak out a win against the Raiders, though this is one of the tougher NFL picks of the week for me.
Prediction: Seahawks win 28-26
Los Angeles Rams (3-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-2)
Sunday, November 27, 4:25 ET
At this particular point in time, I’m not sure how you can possibly bet against the Kansas City Chiefs.
This is the NFL, so there are bound to be some stumbling blocks along the way, but they are truly the most well-oiled machine in the NFL right now, even if they do have some flaws. The duo of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce is as good and as strong as ever. Isaiah Pacheco has emerged as a legitimate weapon for this team. They are getting production from different receivers every week. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is opportunistic.
Although the Chiefs lost Tyreek Hill in the offseason and everyone (including me) made a big deal about it, they look as good as they ever have.
The same cannot be said of the Los Angeles Rams right now. The Rams are kind of a mess, actually. With Matthew Stafford going down with a concussion in Week 11 and Cooper Kupp on IR, how much of a chance do the reigning champs really have in this game?
You hate to be overly negative, but this one seems kind of like a 16 seed vs. a 1 seed in the NCAA basketball tournament every March. Could something crazy happen and the Rams win even if they don’t have Kupp and possibly Stafford?
Sure, but stopping Mahomes and Kelce for four quarters at home and outlasting them for 60 minutes? That’s a daunting task for anyone, much less a struggling team like the Los Angeles Rams. I think this is the easiest of the NFL picks this week.
Prediction: Chiefs win 34-20
New Orleans Saints (4-7) at San Francisco 49ers (6-5)
Sunday, November 27, 4:25 ET
The New Orleans Saints have been such an odd team so far in the 2022 NFL season. One week, they can go out there and put forth a really impressive offensive performance like we saw this past weekend against the Rams. Another week, they go out there and barely eclipse the 10-point mark, like we saw the previous two games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
The San Francisco 49ers have been one of the more resilient teams in the NFL so far this season. They overcame the loss of starting quarterback Trey Lance thanks to the fact that they couldn’t find any NFL team to trade for Jimmy Garoppolo while he was still injured this offseason. That turned out to be a blessing in disguise and this team’s title hopes were renewed because of it.
Not only that, but the 49ers have proven they can win in a variety of ways. They have so many playmakers on offense, and they added another dynamic piece at the NFL trade deadline by trading for Christian McCaffrey. Having Kyle Shanahan calling plays with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, and Brandon Aiyuk headlining your arsenal of playmakers?
The 49ers have luxuries offensively, and defensively, Demeco Ryans’ group has been tremendous this year. They not only rank 6th in the league in points allowed but they are number one in yards allowed this season, one of the stingiest defenses in the entire league. A big reason for that is the 49ers make teams one-dimensional by dominating against the run. They are tops in the league in yards per carry allowed to opposing teams.
The Saints are going to have to find ways to break off big plays in the running game and stick to a balanced attack if they’re going to win this one. I just don’t know that I see it happening.
Prediction: 49ers win 24-20
Green Bay Packers (4-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)
Sunday, November 27, 8:20 ET
What more can be said about the Green Bay Packers this season? It’s just been so disappointing to see how predictable this team’s downfall was after they decided not to be more aggressive in replacing Davante Adams.
It was barely understandable in the first place for them to just give in to Adams’ request to be traded to the Raiders so he could play with Derek Carr instead of putting a blank check in front of one of the league’s best receivers. Aaron Rodgers is not getting any younger, and the Packers had decided to give Rodgers a $150 million payday at $50 million per year, roughly. The fact that they drew a line in the sand on Davante Adams and then didn’t appropriately replace him at one of the game’s most important positions?
Especially considering guys like Tyreek Hill were available, the Packers simply made a massive mistake.
Now, they are feeling the effects of that as they have stumbled to a 4-7 record, the worst we have seen them basically throughout the entire Aaron Rodgers era. At least that I can actually remember.
They are now going on the road to face a Philadelphia Eagles team that has been flirting with disaster in recent weeks. They lost their first game two weeks ago against a really scrappy Washington Commanders team. Then they almost went on the road and lost to the Indianapolis Colts this past week. After a loss and a very close call, are the Eagles on upset alert this week against the Packers?
Yes, yes they are.
Prediction: Packers win 27-24
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) at Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1)
Monday, November 28, 8:15 ET
Normally, NFL fans are happy to take any game they can get when it comes to football. In the offseason, this is the kind of game fans say they would rather watch than not have any football at all.
This is a brutal prime-time matchup between two teams who have been two of the league’s worst on offense in the 2022 season. What will be interesting in this game is to see which defense can score one or two touchdowns.
The Pittsburgh Steelers, if they have nothing else, at least have TJ Watt, who has been his usual self since coming back from an injury suffered early on in the season. He’s not only been putting pressure on the QB, but he’s now picked off another pass this season, both coming against the Bengals.
Against the turnover-prone Colts, Watt could end up having a field day.
The Colts, to their credit, have been pretty tough and competitive the last couple of weeks with the shocking decision to make Jeff Saturday the interim head coach. Not that Saturday doesn’t know football, but the fact that he’s never been a head coach at the college or pro level certainly made that an unprecedented move, even on an interim basis.
The Colts gave the Eagles all they could handle this past week and they are playing really well defensively. I think this game comes down to which QB makes fewer mistakes and for the purposes of NFL picks and predictions, I’ll go with the veteran Matt Ryan.
Prediction: Colts win 17-16