As wild as the 2022 NFL offseason was at the quarterback position for many NFL teams, the 2023 offseason might even be crazier. It feels like nearly half the NFL will be looking to make a major change at the quarterback position, and it’s very possible we see over 2/3 of the league make some kind of substantial move at the position, whether drafting someone, signing a prominent backup, trading for someone, signing someone, or making a substantial financial investment in the guy they already have.
Buckle in for the 2023 NFL offseason and 2023 NFL free agency. Who will every team’s starting quarterback end up being this year? Let’s try and predict the chaos.
2023 NFL offseason: Predicting the starting QB for all 32 teams
Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
Backup option: Chase Daniel (replacing the retired Chad Henne), Carson Wentz
Everybody knows that the Kansas City Chiefs are going to be quarterbacked by Patrick Mahomes in 2023, and for many years to come. The league MVP, Super Bowl MVP, and likely future Hall of Famer at this point has become the greatest cheat code in the modern NFL, it seems. Mahomes works so well with Andy Reid, playing exactly as he needs to within the structure of the offense and making mind-boggling plays on his own and often out of thin air.
Behind Mahomes is the new question mark. Chad Henne walked off into the proverbial sunset after the Chiefs won the Super Bowl and now Mahomes needs a new backup. I’m sure the Chiefs will opt for someone rather boring like Chase Daniel, who was with the team from 2013-15, but what about a wild card like Carson Wentz?
Wentz may look for a better chance of playing, but being in KC with Andy Reid might actually increase his value without taking many snaps.
Las Vegas Raiders: Jimmy Garoppolo or Taylor Heinicke (replacing Derek Carr)
Possible backup option: Taylor Heinicke or Jarrett Stidham
Although the intrigue may not be there for the Kansas City Chiefs, it’s certainly going to be there for one of their rivals in the AFC West — the Las Vegas Raiders. Before anything, it’s important to discuss the fact that in his two opportunities as an NFL head coach, Josh McDaniels has found a way to jettison a Pro Bowl quarterback.
When he was with the Broncos, McDaniels promptly traded away Pro Bowl QB Jay Cutler. He waited a year in Las Vegas, but stayed on-brand by cutting Carr in 2023. It’s absolutely wild that McDaniels has found a way to do this multiple times.
At any rate, Carr is gone. A new era will begin soon for the Raiders franchise, and ownership has obviously signed off on McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler doing what they feel is best for the team. It feels almost inevitable, doesn’t it, that McDaniels is going to reunite with one of his former QBs in a free agency crop loaded with them?
Of course, Raiders fans are dreaming of a reunion between Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams, but I simply do not see how Rodgers and McDaniels would work out.
More likely, the Raiders will be playing for the QB class of 2024, and if that’s the case, it wouldn’t shock me to see someone like Jimmy Garoppolo come to Las Vegas. I’m certainly not the first person to suggest that. Garoppolo and McDaniels obviously have a prior relationship, and Garoppolo has proven himself to be one of the most effective “point guards” at QB in the NFL.
Behind or maybe instead of Garoppolo, names like Taylor Heinicke and Jarrett Stidham make sense. Stidham got himself an audition late in the season in 2022 and did well. Heinicke is connected to Scott Turner dating back to his time in Minnesota, and they’ve sort of been connected at the hip.
Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert
Possible backup options: Cooper Rush, Mike White, or Carson Wentz (replacing Chase Daniel)
The Los Angeles Chargers’ season ended in a very disappointing fashion, but somewhat shockingly, the team decided not to move on from head coach Brandon Staley. For all his odd decision-making at times, the Chargers passed on a chance to perhaps pair Justin Herbert with Sean Payton — or anyone from this coaching cycle, for that matter.
The vote of confidence in Staley certainly isn’t without merit. He hasn’t been a horrible head coach, by any means. But the Chargers did make major changes to the offensive staff, firing Joe Lombardi and bringing in Kellen Moore from the Dallas Cowboys.
There is undoubtedly intrigue here with the arrival of Kellen Moore, the potential marriage between him and Herbert, and how that all affects the Chargers’ offense going forward. As far as the question of who will be the Chargers QB in 2023? There is no intrigue.
But the backup spot is up for grabs. It might be someone slightly boring with Kellen Moore coming in and his prior connections, but this year’s free agent market is a pretty full group of guys that would be intriguing in Los Angeles.
Could Cooper Rush follow Kellen Moore to Los Angeles? Absolutely.
Mike White was also with the Cowboys for a spell before we saw him finally get some playing time with the Jets this past season.
Carson Wentz could also be interesting. We have seen Tom Telesco dip into the talent pool of the Dakotas before (Easton Stick, Trey Pipkins, Derrek Tuszka, Kyle Emanuel, etc.) so perhaps he has already, at some point, taken a liking to Wentz. Wentz is similar to Herbert physically and could work well in Kellen Moore’s offense.
Denver Broncos: Russell Wilson
Possible backup options: Jameis Winston, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield
The 2022 season was absolutely brutal for Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos. Fans had dreams (delusions?) of Wilson doing for the 2022 Broncos what Peyton Manning did for the 2012 Broncos — making them an overnight Super Bowl contender. That did not happen.
This Broncos team went from “let’s ride” in March to “how much longer is the ride?” in October. Expectations were not met. The Broncos fell so short that the new ownership group decided to fire Nathaniel Hackett before his first season with the team was over. They replaced him with longtime Saints head coach Sean Payton.
Payton’s arrival in Denver has once again renewed expectations as Wilson played horribly for most of the 2022 season, but finished rather strong. If anyone can get the best out of Russ, it’s Sean Payton, right?
Payton has routinely gotten the best out of his quarterbacks from Drew Brees to Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, and plenty of others. This might be one of his biggest undertakings yet.
It’s going to be fascinating to see how it works out with Payton and Russ, but perhaps even more fascinating will be whether he brings in a high-profile backup quarterback. We could see Brett Rypien simply return, or we could see Payton bring in one of his old pals like Jameis Winston.
I would love to see the Broncos bring in a reclamation project behind Russ like Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield, but we’ll see how much the Broncos are willing to invest in a contingency like that.
Predicting NFC West quarterbacks for 2023 before NFL Free Agency
Seattle Seahawks: Geno Smith
Possible backup options: Marcus Mariota (replacing Drew Lock), 2023 NFL Draft pick
Geno Smith ain’t write back to all the people who had written him off. You love to see it. One of the coolest stories in the entire NFL in the 2022 season was Geno Smith coming out of absolutely nowhere to win Comeback Player of the Year. A lot of people (wrongfully) complained about Geno winning the award because he didn’t come back from injury, which is a completely bogus reason to complain.
Geno Smith came back from being completely written off as a legitimate starting option. He came back from throwing about as many pick-sixes as he did total passes as a member of the New York Jets. He came back from being considered a draft “bust” even when he was only a second-round pick.
Geno Smith deserves all the flowers he can get for the way he played in 2022, especially considering he was in competition all offseason with Drew Lock for the starting job. That seems hilarious in hindsight.
And his “breakout” season at the age of 31 couldn’t have come at a better time. It’s going to make Geno Smith a very rich man in the very near future. I think the Seahawks will pay him, whether with an extension or a franchise tag. They will get him back somehow. There shouldn’t be a question of where he will play in 2023.
But who will back him up? I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone like Marcus Mariota head to the upper northwest if the price is right. He is going to be looking for a situation where he might be able to prove himself worthy of another starting job in the near future and if playing time becomes available in Seattle, that feels like a team he could really thrive with.
They have a strong running game, tremendous receivers, and great coaching.
If the Seahawks end up tagging Geno Smith instead of re-signing him to a longer-term deal, the 2023 NFL Draft might be their path to a backup, or someone way less expensive than Mariota might end up being.
Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford
Possible backup options: Baker Mayfield, Mike White, Sam Darnold
Things with the Los Angeles Rams right now are a little in limbo, at least that’s what it feels like. The Rams seemingly have a core of players they can win with right now, but after winning Super Bowl LVI, things kind of hit the fan with this team in 2022.
The Rams struggled badly with injuries. Matthew Stafford, specifically, only played in nine total games and had just 10 touchdowns along with eight interceptions in those games. Things did not click with free agent pickup Allen Robinson right away, Cooper Kupp got hurt, and the Rams offensive line was clearly missing players like Andrew Whitworth at left tackle and Austin Corbett at the guard position.
All of that being said, Stafford is going to be back this season after some rumors that he may hang up the cleats, and I think he’s a viable comeback player of the year candidate. Hopefully, the Rams’ core is able to stay healthy. We know general manager Les Snead is going to be aggressive in finding some upgrades for this roster, but another down year and we might see this team get blown up.
Behind Stafford, the idea of Baker Mayfield returning has plenty of merit. He got a little audition late in the 2022 season under Sean McVay and he looked solid. Perhaps that is the best spot to rehab his value. It also wouldn’t be shocking to see Mike White come out to LA along with his former OC in New York, Mike LaFleur.
Perhaps we see the Rams take a shot on another reclamation project like Sam Darnold to be on the roster behind Stafford. I think they need to have a backup plan they feel confident can help them win if need be, given the fact that Stafford is coming off of a year in which he missed eight games.
San Francisco 49ers: Brock Purdy/Trey Lance
Possible backup options: Sam Darnold, Brett Rypien
The San Francisco 49ers are both in an enviable position and stuck between a rock and a hard place. How does this team move forward at the QB position with clarity?
Jimmy Garoppolo played well for them this past season, but that ship is going to officially set sail in 2023. I think it was shocking enough to see him back with the 49ers in 2022, but both sides were lucky it worked out the way it did in terms of the 49ers getting Jimmy back on a reduced deal, and Jimmy actually getting the chance to play and increase his value in 2023 NFL free agency.
Moving forward, will it be Trey Lance or Brock Purdy? The 49ers traded a lot to move up and get Lance, who suffered a season-ending injury early on in 2022. Brock Purdy obviously was Mr. Irrelevant in 2022 and came on late in the season to earn some rookie of the year recognition. He was simply outstanding for this 49ers team down the stretch and led them to a playoff win.
I don’t know how you could pivot off of Purdy, but Lance is the guy they invested so much in. There’s an element of concern with both of these players in terms of their health as well. Lance had an ankle injury and Purdy had a UCL (elbow) injury that is common for baseball players.
There’s not a clear picture here for either player in terms of their health so the 49ers are really going to be counting on team doctors and trainers to get these guys right for the season. It’s possible both are healthy on kickoff weekend.
It wouldn’t be shocking, in the slightest, to see someone like Brett Rypien brought in as a backup here, or maybe the 49ers take a swing on a reclamation project like Sam Darnold. You can’t help but love the idea of Darnold with Kyle Shanahan and his staff.
If I were placing a bet on it right now, I would say Purdy opens the year as the starter.
Arizona Cardinals: Jacoby Brissett, Kyler Murray
Possible backup option: Gardner Minshew
The Arizona Cardinals will open the Jonathan Gannon era without their franchise quarterback, most likely. Unless Kyler Murray heals much faster than anticipated and comes back to the field earlier than he probably should, someone else will be starting the year off under center for this Arizona offense.
That someone could very well be Jacoby Brissett, who is a natural fit to follow new Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing. Petzing was the quarterbacks coach for Kevin Stefanski and the Browns this past year before jumping on board Jonathan Gannon’s very young coaching staff. Having someone like Brissett hold down the fort for Kyler Murray could be an ideal situation.
But don’t be shocked if the Cardinals go out and get someone else that Gannon is familiar with in Gardner Minshew, who might be a closer one-for-one when you’re talking about building an offense for Kyler Murray, specifically.
But Petzing may be tasked with building a couple of offenses initially or at least asking someone like Brissett to simply operate the base of the offense at a high level and then designing different packages for Murray that get installed whenever he is healthy. Quite the undertaking for a young offensive coordinator, no doubt.
Brissett showed this past year with the Browns that he is a capable starter on a year-to-year basis. He might have plenty of suitors this offseason, too, with Josh McDaniels in the market for a QB as well as Frank Reich. He’s very strongly connected to those two guys so the Cardinals may need to go a cheaper route like Minshew if there’s a bidding war.
AFC North quarterback predictions in 2023 NFL offseason
Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow
Potential backup options: Brandon Allen, draft pick
As far as the purposes of this post (which is meant to be a fun look at what could be), the Cincinnati Bengals are a snooze-fest. This team is in such a great spot at the starting QB position that most teams simply look on with envy.
For my money, I would put Joe Burrow on the same echelon as players like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Is he as dynamic athletically? No, but he doesn’t need to be. Burrow has the Tom Brady-like competitiveness that will give him an edge for the entirety of his career. When you watch Joe Burrow play, you can feel how much he hates losing.
That’s such a desirable trait in a quarterback.
Burrow spreads the ball around as well as any quarterback in the league. He turned around the Bengals organization as quickly as you will see any player make that big of a difference. Burrow’s ascent since the 2019 season began for him at LSU seems to be ongoing. It doesn’t feel like he’s plateaued — he’s simply getting better and better.
Behind Burrow, maybe the Bengals will bring back Brandon Allen. Maybe they will look to the 2023 NFL Draft to get someone else in the building and develop under Zac Taylor and Brian Callahan. Whatever ends up happening, the Bengals are in a great spot with Burrow.
Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson
Possible backup options: Tyler Huntley, Hendon Hooker
The public back and forth over Lamar Jackson’s contract situation with the Baltimore Ravens has been interesting, to say the least, but we’ll see if cooler heads will prevail the closer we get to March 7 (franchise tag deadline). The Ravens would have to put the franchise tag on Jackson at over $32 million this year, which would certainly put a dent in the rest of their offseason plans but would at least buy them some more time.
And time is exactly what is causing this situation to feel like it’s bleeding out. Lamar Jackson is self-represented (he doesn’t have an agent), but that’s not really a hindrance. It’s not common for NFL teams to hand out fully guaranteed contracts, and that seems to be what Jackson wants. If the Ravens won’t give him one, someone would.
If the Ravens don’t want to give him one, I proposed the idea of Jackson for Justin Fields and the no. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. Who says no? Add all the extra fluff picks you want, or swap Fields for extra 1st-round picks if need be, but we know how much Baltimore loves Alabama players and Bryce Young is sitting there at no. 1 overall if they want to make a deal.
At any rate, I feel like so many of the rumors at this point in time are pointing to a possible Lamar Jackson trade, and you can’t help but think the pendulum could swing back in the other direction as a deadline draws closer. The Ravens have such a dynamic player here. Starting over at the QB position is not impossible for them given the current state of the roster and they could get an absolute blockbuster deal trading Jackson away.
But as of right now, I’m not willing to say for certain that I think Lamar is getting dealt.
What wouldn’t surprise me? It wouldn’t surprise me if we saw the Ravens tag Lamar Jackson, don’t give him a long-term deal, and then draft someone like Hendon Hooker in round two or three.
Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson
Possible backup options: Kellen Mond, Taylor Heinicke, Andy Dalton, 2023 NFL Draft pick
The Cleveland Browns have made their bed with Deshaun Watson, and that’s that. They traded the world to get him. They paid him an unprecedented contract that will undoubtedly affect the quarterback market for years to come, and the early returns on all of that investment?
Not great.
Watson looked rusty, to say the least, in his return to the football field after missing all of 2021 with his ongoing off-field issues, completing just over 58 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and five interceptions. His touchdown percentage of 4.1 percent was the lowest of his career, even in a small sample size, and his interception percentage of 2.9 percent was the worst since his rookie season in the league (2017).
The Browns are banking on Watson returning to form in 2023, no doubt. They paid a hefty price and put a lot of eggs in that basket. As of right now, it’s hard to know what the team can really do as a backup option to Watson, but they need to have something decent in place.
Kellen Mond was acquired last year and he’ll be back in the mix in some capacity, but the Browns will have to probably go out and sign someone else like Taylor Heinicke, who knows Stefanski from their paths crossing in Minnesota.
Maybe the Browns convince Andy Dalton to come to town for a year as Watson’s backup. Certainly the team could spend a mid-late pick on the position as well.
Whatever the case, the Browns need to look for a financially flexible backup option with as high of a floor as possible, and maybe take a shot on upside in the NFL Draft.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenny Pickett
Possible backup options: Mitchell Trubisky
Most of the teams in this predictions post could make some type of change one way or the other, but I think if any team is likely to just roll with what they had (at least starter and backup) for the 2023 NFL season, it would be the Pittsburgh Steelers.
I think the Steelers are going to give Kenny Pickett another year to prove he can be the guy before they make their way to the QB market again in 2024.
Kenny Pickett wasn’t perfect as a rookie. His first game in the league was borderline disastrous as he threw an interception on his first pass ever and then proceeded to throw a couple more throughout the game (not all his fault). He ended up throwing just one interception over the course of his final seven games of the season (not including a game in which he left after throwing one pass).
It wasn’t other-worldly, but Pickett showed some things in 2022 and deserves a shot to see how much he can improve in 2023.
Behind him is Mitchell Trubisky, who played in seven games for the Steelers last year. The former top pick of the Chicago Bears certainly didn’t become the next Ryan Tannehill-caliber reclamation project for the Steelers, but he should be an effective backup for them.
With Mason Rudolph hitting free agency, maybe we see the Steelers go after a mid-late pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to fortify the QB position.
NFC North quarterback predictions for 2023 NFL season
Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love (replacing Aaron Rodgers)
Possible backup options: Brett Rypien, Case Keenum
As we get to the NFC North, we begin in Green Bay where Aaron Rodgers has finally emerged from his black hole retreat. Rodgers, the complicated fella that he is, may have played his last down as a member of the Packers when the team took a loss at home against the Detroit Lions. It would be a bitter way for things to end in Green Bay for Rodgers, but it might be time for all parties to move on.
It just feels like these two are at least a year overdue for parting ways. Rodgers has become somewhat of a distraction for this Packers team, and his play in 2022 wasn’t good enough to justify the hefty price they are paying him. Rodgers understands that his contract would need to be redone if he’s going to play for the Packers or anyone else in 2023, in all likelihood, and retirement may be a possibility for him.
Although he wasn’t playing at an MVP level in 2022, a dip in abilities would certainly not be the reason for Rodgers and the Packers parting ways. Jordan Love was a first-round pick of Green Bay back in 2020 and entering his fourth NFL season, it’s now or never if the Packers are going to see what they’ve got, right?
If the Packers keep Rodgers, Love should demand a trade. He was Matt LaFleur’s guy, though, so it makes sense that the Packers would want to see that investment through as Rodgers is very much at the end of his NFL career.
I think the Packers move on from AR12, move forward with Jordan Love, and then bring in someone like a Brett Rypien or Case Keenum as a steady backup who can also serve as a “player-coach” for them.
Minnesota Vikings: Kirk Cousins
Possible backup options: Nick Mullens, Carson Wentz, Draft pick
The Kirk Cousins era in Minnesota will roll right along. You like that?
Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings were one of the truly great stories of the 2022 NFL season. O’Connell left his job with the Super Bowl champion Rams to come to the midwest, and he found himself winning the NFC North as a rookie coach and proving to do a masterful job at managing the game in tight situations.
The Vikings were undefeated in one-score games until their playoff matchup against the New York Giants. This team found ways to galvanize at the most unlikely of moments throughout the season. We saw this team win on the road against Buffalo in a shootout. We saw them come back from down 150-0 at halftime against the Indianapolis Colts.
And we saw Kirk Cousins throw for over 4,000 yards again. This time, Cousins finished the year with eight fourth-quarter comebacks and eight game-winning drives in total. It was a tremendous season for him, individually, and he continued a near-decade of just remarkable consistency.
Kirk Cousins since 2015 (17-game average)
- 4,530 yards
- 67.5 completion rate
- 31 touchdowns
- 11 INT
Most teams would love to have that kind of production out of their QB position and Cousins has been doing it every year since 2015. But can the Vikings win it all with him under center? There’s another level Kirk must yet reach as an NFL QB. His stats are impressive.
Behind Cousins, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Nick Mullens brought back since the Vikings traded for him, but perhaps someone like Carson Wentz could be interesting, too.
Detroit Lions: Jared Goff
Possible backup option: Anthony Richardson (2023 NFL Draft)
I wrote about the Detroit Lions, specifically, in a recent post outlining why this offseason might be a tremendous opportunity for them to go after a high-upside option at QB in the NFL Draft. The 2023 NFL Draft class isn’t overly revered for its quarterbacks, not like the 2024 class will be. But this class has some serious intrigue and polarizing prospects, some of which will be available to the Lions.
For starters, let’s talk about the starter — Jared Goff.
Goff has done an incredible job in Detroit after being considered basically a throw-in in the Matthew Stafford trade. Although the Rams “won” that trade in terms of Stafford pushing them over the hump into Super Bowl champion status, it’s hard not to look at this trade as a true win-win from Detroit’s perspective as well.
Detroit got Goff, who has helped elevate this offense under Ben Johnson to truly being one of the best in the NFL. They also used the first pick from Los Angeles to move up for Jameson Williams, the talented receiver who should be a key part of the offense in year two.
They also have the 6th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft from that trade.
As good as Goff has been for the Lions, I wouldn’t be shocked if they used their 6th overall pick on someone like Anthony Richardson out of Florida, Will Levis out of Kentucky, or CJ Stroud of Ohio State. They could very easily justify picking a QB in that slot assuming they’re not going to be picking there for a while with the way things are trending.
It’s a dilemma for general manager Brad Holmes, but it’s a very justifiable move given the circumstances with that team. Having a rookie QB under contract would allow this team to reset when Goff’s contract is up (2025) or they could move off of his deal in 2024 with only $5 million in dead money.
Either way, drafting a QB at 6 overall — even with as well as Goff has played — is not a bad investment.
Chicago Bears: Bryce Young (replacing Justin Fields)
Potential backup options: Teddy Bridgewater, Taylor Heinicke
I promised that this post would take a look at some potential chaos, and the Chicago Bears might be right at the center of it. I’m just not 100 percent sold that this new regime in Chicago is going to pass on the chance at taking the QB it wants with the no. 1 overall pick in favor of Justin Fields, who is not a finished product as a passer heading into his third NFL season.
The Bears have the most cap space of any team in the NFL heading into the 2023 offseason. They have assets at their disposal to upgrade this roster pretty much any way they see fit. Trading Justin Fields seems counter-productive to so many Bears fans and understandably so — you’d rather not start over at the QB position when your guy showed some progress in year two.
It’s entirely possible that the Bears’ brain trust — who did not draft Justin Fields — go into this process with an open mind and come out of it in love with Bryce Young. If they feel like Young can become a more effective passer at the NFL level than Fields, then they should do what they feel is best for the franchise.
I think Chicago could get decent value for Fields and maybe even a high first-round pick at this point. They might be able to get more value for trading down from the top overall pick and then maybe even trading down again after that, but this is more important than just seeing how many picks they can get from trading down.
The Bears are in a unique spot, picking first overall with the chance at any QB in this class. We’ll find out in the coming months just how confident the Bears are in Justin Fields’ future with their franchise, at least compared to Bryce Young (or whoever else).
NFC South 2023 quarterback predictions before NFL Free Agency
Atlanta Falcons: Justin Fields (replacing Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder)
Possible backup option: Desmond Ridder
Since we moved on from Justin Fields in the previous page, we’ve got to tell you where he’s heading, right?
In this scenario, I could see the Atlanta Falcons being a top landing spot. This would be a homecoming for Fields, a Georgia native who started off his college career with the Bulldogs before ultimately transferring to Ohio State when Georgia decided to go with Jake Fromm.
Good times, right?
The Falcons spent this past year running an offense with Marcus Mariota the primary option under center, so head coach Arthur Smith already has the infrastructure in place to have a player like Fields succeed immediately upon his arrival. This kind of trade might cost the Falcons a good amount in draft capital, but the good news for them is they would get Fields, who has already done two years taking his lumps in Chicago, learning, failing forward, and showing a lot of improvement this past year.
Atlanta has been heavily connected to Lamar Jackson in rumors this offseason and they certainly might make a bold play to go and get him. If the Ravens don’t trade Jackson, though, I think trying to pry Fields from the Bears is another really good idea from Atlanta’s perspective.
You’ve got weapons in the passing game in Kyle Pitts and Drake London. You’ve got weapons in the running game in Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier. You’ve got assets to spend money in free agency and upgrade the defense.
This Atlanta team could thrive with a playmaker like Fields at the QB position.
Carolina Panthers: Ryan Tannehill
Possible backup options: Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, CJ Stroud, Hendon Hooker (2023 NFL Draft pick)
The Carolina Panthers are clearly putting together a plan to draft a quarterback at some point in 2023, the question is who?
Frank Reich was hired as this team’s next head coach. He brought in Jim Caldwell, Josh McCown, Duce Staley, and Thomas Brown on the offensive staff. This Panthers team is setting itself up to groom a young player at the quarterback position, and the final piece of the puzzle will be a quarterback to bridge that gap.
There shouldn’t be pressure from Carolina to get a rookie on the field immediately, but this team is going to obviously want to win right away. They can do that with Reich and the stellar staff he’s assembled. In order to do that, however, they’re going to need a veteran quarterback which is where Ryan Tannehill comes into play.
Is this the most enticing option available to the Panthers? No, maybe not. But he fits the mold of a veteran quarterback who can bridge the cap and not strap them down financially.
https://twitter.com/JustinM_NFL/status/1628426231090712576
It just so happens that the oddsmakers see this one happening as well. At least, as of now.
If Tannehill leaves the Titans this offseason, which feels very likely, it could be that we see him join Frank Reich’s group in Carolina, where he would keep the seat warm for whatever QB the Panthers fancy in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Or, they could punt to 2024. Whatever the case, I think this is the offseason plan for Carolina in some way, shape, or form.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Drew Lock (replacing Tom Brady)
Possible backup options: Kyle Trask, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers knew that it wasn’t going to be “forever” with Tom Brady, but for a minute there, you had to wonder a little bit if he was ever going to really stop playing…
Even with the paperwork filed to the NFL, I’m still not so sure. Even if Brady does decide to play again, as surprising as that would be at this point, I don’t think it would be for the Bucs. It’s going to be a new era in Tampa Bay and with a new offensive staff coming in, I’m not so sure it’s good news for Kyle Trask.
Trask was picked at the bottom of the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft, and the Trask offseason hype has already begun. The problem is, although the Bucs envision Trask as being a potentially strong “point guard” at the position, I think they might have been the only team that valued him as highly as they did in 2021. And that was a different offensive staff.
The Bucs now have Dave Canales in place as their offensive coordinator, and Canales comes over from the Seattle Seahawks where he recently coached Geno Smith and Drew Lock. Now, it could mean nothing, but it’s worth noting that Lock was included in that Russell Wilson trade last year. Was Canales someone advocating for that? The Seahawks had those two in a competition to the bitter end of camp last year, so perhaps Canales feels like he can still work well with Lock, if only for a season.
Bucs fans may be reading this and wondering why I hate them so much. Kyle Trask and Drew Lock? Really?
I think this team is playing the long game to get into the QB market for 2024. I’m not going to say the word “tank” but you can put the two and two together here.
New Orleans Saints: Baker Mayfield (replacing Andy Dalton)
Possible backup options: Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, Teddy Bridgewater, Hendon Hooker
New Orleans Saints fans are probably sick of building bridges at this point, but that’s where this franchise is at right now.
One bridge QB after the next.
Although the Saints have been in the reclamation and retread market for a few years now, I think we might see them go after someone in the 2023 NFL Draft with some upside. Someone like a Hendon Hooker who may not contribute immediately, but could work well in the future. Maybe you see them go after Stanford’s Tanner McKee, a name rising lately in the NFL Draft community.
Why don’t the Saints have a top-10 draft pick this year? Because of a horrendous trade made in the 2022 NFL Draft by GM Mickey Loomis. You know how you can buy gift cards at Costco for slightly less than the gift card is actually worth? That’s kind of what Mickey Loomis let Howie Roseman do last year. Except instead of getting a $50 Olive Garden gift card for $45, Howie Roseman is getting a top-10 pick in 2023. Hopefully that made sense to someone other than me.
Loomis traded a mid-first-round pick in 2022 and a 2023 1st-round pick for two mid-first-round picks in 2022. That 2023 pick ended up being 10th overall, which the Saints could now be using, obviously, to address this QB situation.
You get Baker Mayfield as a penalty.
But seriously, if the Saints don’t get Derek Carr, what are they supposed to do? They have to do something, and getting into the mix for 2024 QBs might be the long game. The question is — does Dennis Allen have that long of a leash? Kind of a bad situation for this team.
AFC South 2023 quarterback predictions before NFL Free Agency
Houston Texans: 2023 NFL Draft pick (CJ Stroud/Bryce Young/etc.)
Potential backup options: Davis Mills, Jimmy Garoppolo (as a bridge starter)
The winds of change are blowing in Houston.
After initially declining the chance to interview for the job (or at least, that’s what was reported), DeMeco Ryans not only interviewed but took the Texans head coaching gig after a couple of tremendous seasons coaching the San Francisco 49ers defense.
Because of his ties to San Francisco, and because he brought some of his 49ers buddies with him to the Texans such as new offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, it wouldn’t be shocking to see DeMeco Ryans and Nick Caserio — who both have substantial connections to Garoppolo at this point. Seeing him sign in Houston, even over a place like Las Vegas, would not be shocking.
The Texans are in good position with the no. 2 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft as well as a hoard of picks on top of that to get the QB they want unless the Chicago Bears somehow fall in love with Bryce Young…
…which could very well happen.
At any rate, I think Houston should give itself every chance to fall in love with a couple of QBs from this class and the staff in San Francisco was willing to take a risk on the talent of a guy like Trey Lance. Maybe Houston will fall in love with the talent of someone like Anthony Richardson or Will Levis…
One way or another, I think we’ll see the Texans come out of this Draft with someone at the QB position they can build around. I think they can take that worthwhile risk knowing they have multiple first-round picks to play with in 2024 as well. Davis Mills might still be a competent enough bridge starter for this crew to work with in the meantime, but I think Ryans is going to get a guy sooner rather than later to attach his name to.
Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson…My guess is one of those guys is starting significant games for Houston in 2023.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence
Backup: CJ Beathard (signed new deal recently)
There are only a couple of teams on this entire list where you don’t really have to say anything about the QB position as it relates to major changes being made. For the Jacksonville Jaguars, that is something new and very much welcomed.
Trevor Lawrence took a massive leap forward in his game in 2023, especially as the season went along. After the Jaguars came back from their London loss to the Broncos, something clicked in this offense and Doug Pederson had this team playing great on both sides of the ball.
Lawrence definitely needed a coach like Pederson to come in and be the stark contrast that he was to someone like Urban Meyer. Lawrence’s progression in year two has given Jaguars fans hope that things can be even better in 2023 with this team fresh off of a playoff win against the Chargers as well as a really hard-fought game vs. Kansas City on the road.
Behind Trevor Lawrence, there is no doubt about the fact that CJ Beathard will be the backup again in 2023. The Jaguars gave Beathard a new contract as this post is being written and the former Iowa Hawkeye will be in place to be an asset in the QB room for Lawrence.
Between Pederson, offensive coordinator Press Taylor, QB coach Mike McCoy, and passing game coordinator Nick Holz, the QB brain trust in Jacksonville is very strong. Maybe you throw a late-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft into the mix with such a healthy infrastructure in place.
Indianapolis Colts: 2023 NFL Draft pick (Will Levis? CJ Stroud? Anthony Richardson?)
Possible backup options: Gardner Minshew, Easton Stick
The Indianapolis Colts are poised to make a complete overhaul of their quarterback position in 2023, and it starts with the hiring of head coach Shane Steichen. What Steichen has done at the quarterback position in recent years really cannot be overstated.
Steichen worked with the Chargers as recently as 2020 when they were breaking in rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. He got hired by Nick Sirianni and the Eagles in 2021 as they were developing and designing an offense for Jalen Hurts. Those guys have both become MVP candidates in a hurry and both were developed, at least in part, by Steichen.
The Colts have got to feel pretty confident that he’s going to be able to put together a plan for any variety of rookie quarterbacks to succeed pretty quickly. They hold the 4th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft so they won’t exactly have their choice, but if they like all four of Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Will Levis, and Anthony Richardson?
Well, they’re in good shape, then.
There will probably be a bridge QB for the Colts this year, but I don’t think it’s going to be anyone that Steichen and his staff are going to feel obligated to keep on the field for a long period of time.
Gardner Minshew coming over with Steichen from Philadelphia makes a ton of sense, and so does Easton Stick from the Chargers. The Chargers drafted Stick in 2019 when Steichen was their QBs coach.
Tennessee Titans: Aaron Rodgers (replacing Ryan Tannehill)
Possible backup options: Joshua Dobbs, Malik Willis, Jordan Love?
Here’s a wild card possibility. All of the talk with Aaron Rodgers right now is pretty centered on the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Jets. Understandably so.
Rodgers has an obvious connection in Las Vegas with his old pal Davante Adams. In New York, the obvious connection is new OC Nathaniel Hackett. Rodgers was a huge advocate of Hackett during last year’s head coaching cycle, and many people thought there was a decent chance he would follow him to Denver. That didn’t happen, but the same rumors have come up now that Hackett is with the Jets.
But there is a connection for Rodgers in Tennessee as well. It might not be as obvious as the connection between he and Hackett, but the Titans hired Justin Outten in 2023 as their RBs coach and run game coordinator.
Outten was with the Packers’ staff from 2019-2021 and that connection could come up pretty big for the Titans as they pursue options outside of maybe Ryan Tannehill for the 2023 season.
The Titans’ new GM is Ran Carthon, who has worked for some highly aggressive general managers in recent years (Les Snead, John Lynch/Kyle Shanahan). Those two front offices have run a master class on making aggressive moves to get your roster in position to succeed quickly in recent years, so why should we think Carthon is going to operate differently in Tennessee?
A trade to the Titans would keep Rodgers out of the NFC, and Rodgers could frankly run the offense the way he wants with Mike Vrabel as the team’s head coach. He could probably do the same in New York with Hackett, but in Las Vegas, he and Josh McDaniels could clash.
With all due respect to Titans OC Tim Kelly, Rodgers would likely be able to run things his way in Tennessee, and the Titans have already begun clearing space that might be necessary to facilitate a move like this.
AFC East 2023 quarterback predictions ahead of NFL Free Agency
New York Jets: Derek Carr (replacing Zach Wilson, etc)
Possible backup options: Zach Wilson, Mike White, Brett Rypien
If you want to call it the Derek Carr “sweepstakes”, I think the Jets stand a pretty good chance of winning. The Jets may be holding out hope that they can trade for Aaron Rodgers, but they shouldn’t wait too long or they’re going to be in the Ryan Tannehill market quicker than they can blink.
The Jets have already hosted Derek Carr on a free agent visit. They’ve already done the courting and I find it hard to believe that Carr came away anything but impressed by head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Hackett is one of the most player-friendly coaches in the league, and although he was bad as a head coach in Denver, he should thrive as the OC in New York.
The Jets have one of the best head coaches in the league in Saleh. They have some nice pieces offensively in rookie of the year Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall. They currently have players like Elijah Moore, Braxton Berrios, and Corey Davis, although the wide receiver room could change with the recent hiring of Zach Azzanni as wide receivers coach.
Regardless, this team has an ascending defense and a player like Carr could be the missing piece.
This would allow the Jets to trade Zach Wilson or make him the backup. I love the idea of Brett Rypien following Hackett to New York and serving as a backup quarterback and player-coach. He’s an asset in the QB room.
New England Patriots: Mac Jones
Possible backup options: Bailey Zappe, Brian Hoyer
Is there some trouble at the quarterback position this offseason in New England? It doesn’t seem like the Patriots’ experiment on the offensive coaching staff sat overly well with young Mac Jones, who made the Pro Bowl as a rookie and had people thinking Bailey Zappe was a better option in year two.
The Patriots did the right thing for Mac Jones by bringing Bill O’Brien back into the fold as the team’s offensive coordinator. I mean, Joe Judge and Matt Patricia? Seriously?
The Patriots have also just generally done a really bad job of getting weapons at receiver for Mac Jones. Quite frankly, his group of guys at Alabama would out-class any of what the Pats have put on the field in the last two seasons. It’s just not been a strong area for this team, and now their top player (Jakobi Meyers) is set to hit free agency.
Entering the 2023 season, Mac Jones is the unquestioned starter for the Patriots and I really don’t think we see anything changing here for this position group, although the Patriots do like to invest draft capital in the position. More teams should do it, because the Patriots have benefitted greatly from doing that through the years.
Brian Hoyer could easily transition to the coaching staff as has become a trend in the NFL these days should the Patriots draft someone in rounds 3-7 to be a third QB on the roster behind Jones and Zappe, who have now both started games.
Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa
Possible backup options: Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton, Matt Ryan, Drew Lock, Taylor Heinicke
Year one of the Mike McDaniel era for the Miami Dolphins has to be considered a pretty resounding success. Although the team was a quick exit from the playoffs, a handful of things were accomplished:
- The playoffs were, in fact, made
- They beat every team in their division at least once
- Tua Tagovailoa took a huge step forward as a player
- Tyreek Hill’s presence changed the dynamic of the offense
- Top 5 passing team despite injuries at QB
McDaniel came into Miami and did exactly what the team hoped he could do. The problem is, Tua Tagovailoa’s injury issues are more than concerning — they are downright scary at this point. Tagovailoa suffered a couple of the more horrific injury scares in the league last year and people are wondering whether it’s the best choice for him to be playing football at this point.
How will that impact Miami’s offseason? Maybe they go out and get another top-flight backup like they did with Teddy Bridgewater last year, only maybe someone who doesn’t have the same types of injury issues. Maybe someone like Matt Ryan, Taylor Heinicke, or Andy Dalton could make some sense.
Heck, the way Tua played in Mike McDaniel’s offense, throw Drew Lock in the mix. On second thought, with Vic Fangio in the building, maybe not…
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen
Possible backup options: Case Keenum (free agent), Sam Darnold, Teddy Bridgewater
There’s no doubt about the fact that Josh Allen will be leading the QB room for the Buffalo Bills, but will they reset the position behind him on the roster?
Allen has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL over the last handful of years. Coming into the NFL out of Wyoming in 2018, I can’t stress this enough, Allen was a major wild card. The Bills took a massive risk moving up to get him and he was anything but a sure thing at the professional level. I was there in Mobile at the 2018 Senior Bowl, watching Allen struggle early in the practices and throwing the ball into the stands — literally — during red zone drills.
He’s grown so tremendously from his days at Wyoming and has worked hard to become one of the true game-changers in the NFL.
Allen is as dynamic as they come and he’s got the Bills in title contention annually right now.
Behind him last year was Case Keenum, who is a free agent coming up in 2023. It wouldn’t shock anyone to see Keenum come back, but could we see someone else join the fray? What about someone like Sam Darnold and his upside behind Allen? The Bills took on Mitchell Trubisky in a similar way a couple of years ago.
What about someone like Teddy Bridgewater who has worked with Bills QB coach Joe Brady pretty extensively?
There are plenty of options but the Bills might just opt for the safest option to ensure a high floor if anything happens to Allen, and out of those three, that would probably be Keenum.
NFC East 2023 quarterback predictions before NFL Free Agency
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott
Possible backup options: Cooper Rush, Baker Mayfield, Brett Rypien
The Dallas Cowboys are all-in on Dak Prescott, which is good for them. They landed Prescott in the fourth round of the 2016 NFL Draft after trying and failing to trade up for Paxton Lynch.
Sometimes, it’s the deals you don’t make…
The decision to select Prescott has been fortuitous for the Cowboys at least from a team-building standpoint. He’s proven himself to be a true franchise QB and Dallas looks like a contender with him under center. Does this team need to take the next step? Yes. Is Prescott going to be the one to elevate them to that next step? I would say so.
Prescott is a very good QB, and he needs to learn how to be great in January. We’ll see what happens as time progresses.
There’s a changing of the guard in Dallas this year as Kellen Moore will no longer be calling the plays. Brian Schottenheimer is replacing Moore as the offensive coordinator in Dallas and that could lead to some interesting questions about who will be the backup behind Prescott.
Cooper Rush could stay on. He certainly proved himself a worthy backup early last season. The only thing is, will he price himself out of Dallas’ range? Will he follow Kellen Moore?
Someone like Brett Rypien could make a lot of sense for Dallas as an inexpensive replacement for Rush and, oddly enough, maybe even Kellen Moore over the long term. Rypien has the makings of a future OC and maybe head coach as well.
You never know if Dallas is going to mix it up, either. Maybe they bring Baker Mayfield back to the state of Texas on a one-year deal as Prescott’s backup.
Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts
Possible backup options: Gardner Minshew (free agent), Marcus Mariota, Taylor Heinicke
The Philadelphia Eagles were one of the most well-oiled machines in the entire NFL in 2023. Jalen Hurts took a step forward in the 2021 season, but he leaped into the MVP conversation in 2022. The Eagles were obviously NFC champions this past year and Hurts played one of the best games you will ever see in a Super Bowl.
Unfortunately for the Eagles, it was in defeat.
But this team has its franchise quarterback, there’s no doubt about it. Hurts is smart, dynamic, and since he was benched in the national championship a few years back at Alabama, it feels like all he’s done is improve consistently.
It will be interesting to see how he does without Shane Steichen in the building, but my guess is he’ll be just fine. In fact, with the trajectory he’s been on, maybe he’ll be even better.
What will the Eagles do behind Hurts? That’s a good question at this point considering Gardner Minshew is slated for free agency and may be looking for opportunities to actually play somewhere else. He is a candidate to return for the right price, of course, but I think Marcus Mariota could make a lot of sense given the current operation the Eagles are running. He did well with Arthur Smith this past year and if anything were to happen to Jalen Hurts, it feels like the offense wouldn’t need to change much at all with Mariota under center.
Taylor Heinicke is another name to watch in that regard, as he’s much better as a runner than he’s often given credit for. The dude is a true RAS warrior.
Washington Commanders: Sam Howell (replacing Carson Wentz)
Possible backup options: Taylor Heinicke (free agent), Sam Darnold, 2023 NFL Draft pick
When you think back a couple of years ago, it wouldn’t have been crazy to predict Sam Howell as the future starting QB of the Washington Commanders. As a matter of fact, there were probably plenty of people who felt like the Commanders would be in decent position to get Howell in the 2022 NFL Draft, but there was a time when most everyone thought he was a lock to go in the first round.
The Commanders got him in the fifth.
Even after we saw Sam Howell broaden his game in his final year at North Carolina by becoming more of a runner, the NFL still apparently wasn’t sold on his overall makeup as a possible franchise QB. It seemed like getting Howell in the fifth was a major steal, however, and now as we enter the 2023 offseason, he’s penciled in as the QB1 of the Commanders.
The Commanders, who now have Eric Bieniemy leading the offense as their new coordinator, have got to be feeling pretty good about the future of the franchise. Bieniemy is coming over from Kansas City where they play offense seemingly on another level compared to everyone else. The personnel in Washington is outstanding and Howell is set up really well for success in his second NFL season.
It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Commanders try to bring in someone else at the QB position but I don’t think they have to be super aggressive here. Maybe a reclamation project, maybe bring back Taylor Heinicke, or maybe go after someone like Hendon Hooker in the 2023 NFL Draft.
New York Giants: Daniel Jones
Possible backup options: Case Keenum, Tyrod Taylor
The New York Giants find themselves in an interesting situation right now. The team decided to decline Daniel Jones’ fifth-year option on his rookie contract, a rather wise decision considering how the first three years of his NFL career had gone. The former top-10 pick out of Duke ended up having a nice season in year one under Brian Daboll, but was it good enough to warrant potentially $30-45 million per season?
That’s a pretty broad number right there because a lot of numbers have been floating around the rumor mill, but it doesn’t seem like Jones is about to play in 2023 for the New York Giants for less than that. That’s such a bizarre thing to think about.
Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen aren’t in good position this season to really just say they’re going to move on. They haven’t jumped into the Derek Carr mix, which might tell us all we need to know about where this team stands on Daniel Jones. He might end up getting franchise tagged and a lot of money in 2023, but I find it hard to believe that the duo of Schoen and Daboll came to New York with the intent of building around Jones for the long-term.
Behind Jones, the Giants have Tyrod Taylor but maybe they opt for another option with a high floor like Case Keenum. This team did surprisingly well in 2022, winning a playoff game and inspiring hope in not only the future of the Giants but the present as well. Winning that playoff game likely bought Daniel Jones another season as the starter but it will cost the Giants in a big way.
That franchise tag for the QB position is over $32 million this year and the Giants currently have just under $44 million in space. That wouldn’t leave them a ton of room to make other important moves to upgrade the roster. This plot could thicken quickly.