For some NFL teams, overachieving in 2022 could lead to massive disappointment for fans in 2023. Not every team that seemingly got better on paper is going to come out and have a better record in 2023, but which teams fit into that category?
There are some teams in 2022 that, at least objectively speaking, played well above expectations or got a little luckier than is typical of an NFL season. That’s not to say that every overachieving team in 2022 is going to be bad in 2023, but some teams didn’t quite pass the “eye test” in 2022 and we’ll explain that throughout this article outlining a few teams that may have gotten better on paper in 2023 but may have a worse record than they did a year ago.
3 NFL teams that got better on paper in 2023, but will have worse records
1. New York Giants (2022 record: 9-7-1)
The New York Giants showed last year to be one of the most improved teams in the entire NFL. General manager Joe Schoen came over from the Buffalo Bills and brought Brian Daboll with him as the team’s next head coach. What Schoen and Daboll were able to do together last year was nothing short of outstanding and they were properly recognized for it. Daboll was named NFL coach of the year and the Giants went to Minnesota and won a playoff game against the Vikings, champions of the NFC North.
When you look at this team on paper heading into 2023, they look largely the same at many spots and certainly better at others.
Daniel Jones was re-signed this offseason to a relatively hefty contract after he proved under Brian Daboll that he was, in fact, capable of not turning the ball over every other play. Saquon Barkley was given the franchise tag. The wide receiver position got a slight makeover with Parris Campbell and Jalin Hyatt coming in as well as Darren Waller at tight end.
Perhaps most notably, however, the Giants took a step forward last season on the offensive line and they added John Michael Schmitz to that group in 2023.
Defensively, the Giants managed to get a round-one steal with Deonte Banks in the later portion of the first round after adding guys like Bobby Okereke and A’Shawn Robinson in free agency.
Despite all of these moves, I just have a really hard time buying into Daniel Jones when you consider the whole of his first four NFL seasons. The Giants turned the ball over less in 2022, and Jones was obviously doing a better job of protecting the ball, but in a division that includes legitimate Super Bowl contenders like Dallas and Philadelphia, I don’t know how it’s reasonable to expect the Giants to duplicate their success of winning nine games last year, and only losing seven.
Even if it’s a marginal decline in wins, the Giants have the fourth-toughest strength of schedule in 2023. They play in a brutal division where I would argue the Commanders also got better along with both the Eagles and Cowboys reloading.
No matter what you think about the Giants’ roster improvements in 2023, I think this is a team that overachieved in 2022 and is poised to take a step back record-wise in 2023, even if it’s just to 7-8 wins.
2. Minnesota Vikings (2022 record: 13-4)
It’s tough to look at the Minnesota Vikings in 2022 and not see them as low-hanging fruit for this kind of category. I think it’s pretty safe to say that the Vikings are the most likely NFL team to regress record-wise in 2023 compared to their 2022 record. The Vikings were easily the luckiest team in the NFL in 2022, but to their credit, you don’t just accidentally or luckily win 13 games.
It took the Vikings closing out 11 one-score games to earn that record. They were 11-0 in the regular season in one-score games, an impressive feat and accomplishment that should undoubtedly be celebrated. It certainly got Kevin O’Connell some coach of the year consideration.
But it can also serve as a warning sign that regression is on the horizon. Winning 11 one-score games is simply not common in the NFL.
The Vikings’ four regular season losses were absolutely ugly, and that was largely thanks to the play of their 28th-ranked scoring defense. The Vikings were 31st in total yards allowed, 31st against the pass, and 20th against the run.
They set out to combat those issues in 2023 by adding players like defensive end Marcus Davenport and cornerback Byron Murphy, but are the additions they made defensively going to be enough? The biggest move, arguably, was adding Brian Flores as the team’s new defensive coordinator.
The loss of Adam Thielen in free agency was quickly covered up by the drafting of first-round receiver Jordan Addison, giving the Vikings a great young trio of receivers for Kirk Cousins to spread the ball around to.
But despite this team looking better on paper in 2023, I think it’s clear after their miraculous 11-0 record in one-score games last year that they’re going to lose at least five games in 2023, if not a handful more.
3. Los Angeles Chargers (2022 record: 10-7)
The Los Angeles Chargers are, annually, a difficult team to try and project or even just “figure out” in any sort of way. Some weeks, they look like a true contender in the AFC. Other weeks, and as we saw in the second half of their epic collapse in the playoffs against the Jaguars, the Chargers look like they are just another bump in the road for someone else.
This team has been far too talented throughout the years to have the reputation that it does, and I’m not sure things are going to be any better in 2023 despite the roster looking really strong in Los Angeles.
A roster that won 10 games in 2022 and made the playoffs returns largely intact with Justin Herbert, of course, leading the charge at the quarterback position. Herbert, now in line to start getting some rather hefty contract offers, has shown pretty consistent improvement in each of his first three NFL seasons. The Chargers got him another new weapon this offseason in TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston, and they have seemingly revamped the offensive line to a competent level over the last couple of years.
Despite a trade request, Austin Ekeler remains on the Los Angeles roster as of mid-May, and the defense is — for the time being — fully healthy.
The issue with the Chargers right now is this — they are changing offensive systems in Justin Herbert’s contract year. Should they simply have pulled the plug on Brandon Staley at the end of the year and gone after Sean Payton like everyone thought? I guess we’re fixin’ to find out with how well Payton does in Denver.
The Chargers did not end last season on an inspirational note, coasting into the playoffs and losing in Denver in Week 18 before ultimately getting embarrassed by the Jaguars in the playoffs. I could see Los Angeles ending up with 8 or 9 wins this season, out of the playoffs, and searching for a new head coach.