With the schedules now out and official for the 2026 NFL Season, it marks another notable milestone that we've crossed this offseason. There is still a long way to go, as there are about four solid months before the regular season.
In 2025, we saw the AFC turn into one of the more competitive conferences, and it ended up fielding some shocking results. The New England Patriots winning the AFC East was something that not many of us saw coming, for example.
And with some lesser-thought-of teams slowly on the right track, and there being a chance of regression from the top teams, the AFC could again look crazy in 2026. Let's make some ceiling and floor record predictions for each team in the conference for 2026.
Ceiling and floor record predictions for every AFC team for the 2026 NFL Season
Baltimore Ravens
Ceiling: 13-4
Floor: 9-8
You almost wonder if the Baltimore Ravens regret letting Mike Macdonald leave the team, as hiring Jesse Minter as the head coach feels like the franchise trying to correct that mistake. Minter is a defensive mastermind, and it's not like the Ravens haven't won a ton of games before.
The ceiling is obvious - Lamar Jackson stays healthy, the offense is electric, and the defense plays top-5 football. On the flip side, Minter's tenure starts off pretty rocky, and making the jump from coordinator to head coach feels bigger than expected.
Buffalo Bills
Ceiling: 14-3
Floor: 10-7
Another top AFC team with a new head coach, the Buffalo Bills promoted Joe Brady to replace Sean McDermott, and the argument here for Buffalo's ceiling and floor feels largely similar to what we just said for the Ravens. There should be a high floor here, given how good the Bills have been, but if Brady figures this thing out early on, the Bills don't miss a beat.
Cincinnati Bengals
Ceiling: 13-4
Floor: 9-8
The Cincinnati Bengals overhauled the defense in a series of excellent moves that the front office simply had to make, period. Dexter Lawrence highlights the many moves that also included a 2026 NFL Draft emphasis, and Boye Mafe and Bryan Cook in free agency
On paper, this Bengals team is the best it's been in the Joe Burrow era, but this team has also missed the playoffs three years in a row now. Cincy can't seem to get out of their own way for whatever reason. Part of it might actually be due to Zac Taylor, the team's head coach who isn't necessarily thought of as one of the better coaches in the league.
Given the roster talent, though, and that Taylor already has two 9-8 seasons to his name, a 9-8 season wouldn't be a total shock, but it could be in this instance, given how talented the roster suddenly is. If the Bengals stay healthy, and the defensive moves were the right ones to make, Cincy is going to stack a ton of wins and could earn the top seed in the AFC for the playoffs.
Cleveland Browns
Ceiling: 8-9
Floor: 3-14
The ceiling and floor predictions here really boil down to Deshaun Watson. Assuming he wins the starting job, Watson could be competent enough to help the Cleveland Browns be a rather average team, as Watson has played excellent football in prior seasons, but it's been years.
But if the total opposite happens, which people might find to be more likely, Watson and the Browns are going to be a 'get right' game for so many opponents. First-year head coach Todd Monken could also struggle to find his own rhythm as a head coach.
The Browns may end up coming in around five wins when it's all said and done.
Denver Broncos
Ceiling: 14-3
Floor: 10-7
The Denver Broncos went 14-3 in the regular season last year and came within one game of reaching the Super Bowl. It would have been rather easy to see Denver advancing to the big game had Bo Nix not broken his ankle, but the past is the past.
The Broncos added Jaylen Waddle in a trade this offseason and finally gave the offense a legitimate, No. 1 wide receiver that they've been missing for years now. Defensively, many of the key contributors are back into the mix, and we have seen this franchise get better each year of the Sean Payton era.
However, it's quite hard for a team to win any more than this in the regular season. We have yet to see a 16-1 regular season team in the 17-game era, and even 15-2 is rather uncommon. Given how talented many teams are across the league, the Broncos ceiling might again be that 14-3 record from 2025.
But a slight regression could be on the table, as Denver won a plethora of one-score games in 2025, and some have wondered if the team's late-game heroics would be able to sustain itself in 2026.
Houston Texans
Ceiling: 13-4
Floor: 9-8
The Houston Texans shored up the offensive line this offseason and added help at running back. This could very well be the best roster in the NFL, but the ceiling of CJ Stroud has come into question over the past two seasons. Stroud playing closer to his rookie season self would have the Texans near the top of the AFC, but if he's again average or even continues to regress, Houston could be fighting for a playoff spot.
The team also started 0-3 in 2025, so we can't pretend like they haven't played bad football before. Finishing around 11-13 wins does feel realistic.
Indianapolis Colts
Ceiling: 11-6
Floor: 6-11
At one point in 2025, the Indianapolis Colts were 7-1, and it felt like everything was working. The team collapsed down the stretch and won just one game after that. Daniel Jones also tore his Achilles, so his status for Week 1 is in question.
However, this team did get out to a 7-1 start for a reason, so there is still a chance the Colts are able to find that magic again. On the flip side, though, this team then proceeded to play some pretty sloppy football, and much of that was due to a Jones' regression right before the injury.
The Colts' ceiling for 2025 is a modest 11-6. Jones would have to get on the field rather immediately, and the Colts would also likely not get off to as strong of a start, but the roster talent is absolutely good enough for this team to get into the playoffs.
The floor, though, is when things, for the most part, fall apart big-time. Jones plays a lot like he did after the 7-1 start, and the defense, which isn't necessarily star-studded, can't pick up the pace.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Ceiling: 12-5
Floor: 9-8
The Jacksonville Jaguars won 13 games in the regular season and captured the AFC South title. Given how new everything was for the team last year, it might not be that likely for Jacksonville to capture that kind of success in 2026.
There is now an entire season of tape out on Liam Coen's offense, and two big losses of Travis Etienne and Devin Lloyd in free agency will hurt this roster. On paper, the Jaguars are good, not great, and need another strong offseason of adding players before becoming a legitimate contender.
The ceiling is a bit lower than 2025 for those reasons, and the floor might actually be more likely. A regression back to the mean could be on the table, and if Trevor Lawrence can't play as he did in the second half of the 2025 season, the Jags won't be that special of a team.
Kansas City Chiefs
Ceiling: 11-6
Floor: 7-10
The Kansas City Chiefs won six games during the 2025 season for a reason. Yes, Patrick Mahomes got hurt, but what we saw from 2024 into 2025 was that the already razor-thin margins disappeared. The Chiefs won all of their one-score games from the prior season, and that just doesn't really carry over into the following season.
For the Chiefs in particular, much of that was and is still due to the overall lack of high-end roster talent. This front office hasn't drafted that well in recent years, so we did begin to see Mahomes have to 'carry' the team way more than usual.
Things just went off the rails in that regard in 2025, and suddenly, the Chiefs are having an uphill battle just to finish with a winning record. This front office had gotten them into that mess, so why should we believe that the changes made this offseason were the right ones?
Maybe they were, and if the right moves were made, a winning record is in view. If not, 2026 could go a lot like 2025 - not being able to close out close games and just simply not having enough roster talent on either side of the ball to hang with the big-guns in the conference.
Las Vegas Raiders:
Ceiling: 9-8
Floor: 3-14
Klint Kubiak is in as the Las Vegas Raiders head coach. At best, the Raiders get competent quarterback play from Kirk Cousins, and likely Fernando Mendoza, and shock the NFL world with a winning record.
This front office did add a good bit of talent this offseason, especially on defense. Cousins would need to play like his initial tenure with the Atlanta Falcons, and if Mendoza gets a shot to start, he'd also have to play rather well.
Even if both things come true, the ceiling is rather low. Offensively, the talent just isn't that great outside of Brock Bowers. The floor is rather self-explanatory - Cousins and Mendoza are both below-average, and Kubiak takes some time to adjust to being a head coach in the NFL.
Los Angeles Chargers
Ceiling: 12-5
Floor: 9-8
The Los Angeles Chargers have gone 11-6 in both of Jim Harbaugh's seasons as head coach, and each year has also ended with an embarrassing Wild Card Round loss. Through two seasons, the ceiling is quite obvious with this team.
And the Chargers biggest needs this offseason were also quite obvious. Somehow, General Manager Joe Hortiz didn't seem to make enough substantive moves along the offensive line. Tyler Biadasz was signed in free agency, but both guard spots are rather unknown, and there is no guarantee that either Rashawn Slater or Joe Alt stay healthy.
Losing Minter to the Ravens head coaching job is also going to be a huge loss, but Harbaugh wins wherever he goes, and there is always a chance that new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel is able to figure this offense out.
The ceiling could be a slight improvement over the past two seasons. The floor, however, would likely come with a regressed defense and an offense that struggles up front, yet again, and a quarterback that again takes a pretty substantial beating.
Miami Dolphins
Ceiling: 6-11
Floor: 1-16
The Miami Dolphins might be a bottom-3 team in the NFL this year. They'll have an uphill battle for just one with. With an unknown at quarterback and a first-year head coach, there just isn't much to like with the Dolphins right now.
Still though - Jeff Hafley could surely figure out how to unlock the defense, and there is always a chance that Malik Willis plays well. Those two things coming together could lead to a moderately successful 6-win season. If not, the Dolphins are going to cruise to earning the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, where the front office could absolutely snag a future franchise quarterback.
Miami is going to struggle this year.
New England Patriots
Ceiling: 12-5
Floor: 8-9
With a 14-win season in 2025, the New England Patriots shocked the NFL world. Sure, the team did have an insanely easy schedule, but 14 wins is 14 wins, no matter how you slice it. It was clear, though, that this team arrived onto the scene a year early, so talks of a regression are valid.
The schedule gets a lot tougher, too. Replicating that 14-win season in 2026 just does not feel likely unless everything on that roster takes a giant step forward, which is always possible.
However, our ceiling predictions for the Patriots is 12-5. Quarterback Drake Maye continues his high level of play, and the defense remains stout, but a tougher slate sees the Patriots dropping two more games from last year’s total.
The floor is 8-9, and this would be a serious indictment on the franchise. New England would struggle to hang with the juggernauts, and the true talent of this team would definitely get exposed. There is always a chance that 2025 was legitimately because of the easy schedule, and not because of this team actually being good.
New York Jets
Ceiling: 6-11
Floor: 3-14
The New York Jets trading for Geno Smith was a choice. It’s clear that the Jets are hoping that Smith returns to his Seattle Seahawks days, which is absolutely possible, but Smith was horrendous in 2025, and he’s not getting younger.
Head coach Aaron Glenn also seemed to be in way over his head, so the underwhelming head coach/quarterback duo is going to cap this team at six wins. The roster, while improving, isn’t quite there, and the Jets clearly aren’t trying to win a ton of games.
The floor is going to look a lot like 2025. Finishing 3-14 would be on the table if the Jets simply can’t get out of their own way and if Glenn can’t find any sort of improvement as a head coach in year two.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ceiling: 10-7
Floor: 5-12
Well, it's official - Aaron Rodgers is back with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the 2026 NFL Season. This does make things a bit easier to predict for the team as well. With Rodgers in the picture last year, the Steelers were able to go 10-7 and won the AFC North.
However, they won the North largely because of a missed field goal by Ravens kicker Tyler Loop, so it's not like this was some awesome 10-win team. Pittsburgh's ceiling is 10 wins, and it's been that way for a while now - that seems to be the standard for the franchise.
The floor, however, would be a bit more brutal, as Rodgers' return doesn't guarantee that he'll be even modestly efficient in 2026. This is someone who is into his 40s, so he could hit a wall in 2026 and maybe even look rather unplayable.
Pittsburgh could finish somewhere around 8-10 wins, though, and no one would really bat an eye, to be honest.
Tennessee Titans
Ceiling: 9-8
Floor: 3-14
Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward really made some big-time throws down the stretch in 2025, so the Titans ceiling would be a winning record if Ward hits his year two stride under Brian Daboll, a sharp offensive mind who has worked well with young quarterbacks before.
The Titans still need another strong offseason of adding talent, so the ceiling isn’t going to be any higher than barely over .500, but this would present a massive step in the right direction. However, the floor would likely show us that head coach Robert Saleh truly isn’t cut out to be a head coach in this league.
He fizzled out with the Jets, but many had wondered if Saleh was even given a fair chance. Tennessee would see Ward also fail to develop further, and the entire direction of the franchise would come into question.