Every single year in the NFL, there are teams that shock the world and win way more than most expected, and, on the flip side, teams that just do not win as much as some people thought. Two great examples from the 2025 season would be the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs.
New England was largely irrelevant before the 2025 season, but won 14 games in the regular season and advanced to the Super Bowl. Kansas City, on the other hand, was coming off its third Super Bowl appearance in a row, and there was no indication that the Chiefs were primed for a regression.
Here in 2026, there could be teams primed to regress after a major 2025 campaign. Let's power-rank the most likely regression teams, with the No. 1 team being most likely to regress.
Power-ranking the most likely regression teams for the 2026 NFL Season
4. Philadelphia Eagles
Yet another year with a new offensive coordinator, and it being likely that AJ Brown gets traded at some point, the Philadelphia Eagles might actually be at risk of not winning double-digit games, which is something this team has done ever since the 2022 season. Philly does have a very good roster, but some limitations at quarterback and yet another new offensive scheme could bring things down even further than before.
And sure, the Brown trade has not happened yet, but with the plethora of other wide receiver moves this team made in the offseason, Brown might be as good as gone. Philly could struggle to hit that 10-win total, as the amount of change that's been made and will continue to be made this offseason could be too much to overcome.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers might re-sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers for another year, but even if he does, the Steelers winning 10 games again could be a stretch. Rodgers wasn't good in 2025 and was every bit of a 'dink and dunk' quarterback.
He's also a year older, and long-time head coach Mike Tomlin is no longer in the picture, so this weird, obsessive trend the franchise had of 'non-losing seasons' could also be out the window. Given how much more talented Baltimore and Cincinnati are, and the major quarterback question mark, Pittsburgh could fall flat on its face.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars won 13 games in the 2025 NFL Season and were one of the most shocking teams last year. First-year head coach Liam Coen quickly cemented himself as one of the more encouraging young coaches in the league. Trevor Lawrence also ended the year as an MVP candidate, and even the defense was quite good.
However, the Jaguars lost Travis Etienne and Devin Lloyd in free agency, and the Jags 2025 season could line up with the type of season that the 2024 Washington Commanders had - much of the reason for the success could simply be due to the fact that there just wasn't anything out there to contain the Jaguars.
A brand-new coaching staff does bring a lot of unknown, and that unknown could actually benefit the team. Now that there's an entire year of film out on the 2025 Jaguars, opponents will have more things to look at to prepare for.
The roster isn't anything special, either. The Jags were quite good in 2025 and won 13 games, but that feels like a reach in 2026, especially with the Houston Texans getting a lot better.
1. New England Patriots
The New England Patriots had an insanely easy schedule in the 2025 season, but now for 2026, the team is projected to have among the toughest slates in the league. It could not be more of a change, and last year, the Patriots rode that schedule all the way to the Super Bowl.
Kudos to them for getting that far, but we have to be honest here - the opponents New England sees are going to get significantly better, and, like the Jags, there is now an entire year of film out on the Drake Maye-led Pats offense, alongside Josh McDaniels as the offensive coordinator.
The Patriots do have the infrastructure for long-term success, but the franchise will take a step back in 2026.