The NFC was most certainly a shocking conference in 2025, and there is no reason to believe that it won't be something similar in 2026. Beyond that, there's also going to be some solid, perhaps even winning teams that miss the playoffs.
Even with the NFL having gone to a seven-team playoff format years ago, the amount of competition in this league leaves some competent teams on the outside looking in, and given how many players are on an NFL roster, building a winning team is incredibly difficult.
Let's make our ceiling and floor record predictions for each team in the NFC for 2026, as we recently did for the AFC.
Ceiling and floor record predictions for each team in the NFC for 2026
Arizona Cardinals
Ceiling: 5-12
Floor: 0-17
Not only may the Cardinals already have six losses set to come thanks to being in the loaded NFC West, but this team might also sport the worst roster in the NFL. They have a first-year coaching staff and no competent quarterback situation in sight. This could be a brutal, long year. At best, things come together, and the Cardinals find a way to win a handful of contests.
Atlanta Falcons
Ceiling: 10-7
Floor: 5-12
The Falcons should be hoping that Michael Penix Jr wins the starting job and breaks out in a major year three, as the team does sport enough talent to win the NFC South. Tua Tagovailoa is also in the quarterback room, and getting slightly-above-average quarterback play is really the ceiling here, as neither Penix nor Tagovailoa are trending in the right direction.
Carolina Panthers
Ceiling: 10-7
Floor: 3-14
The Panthers won just eight games in 2025 and won the NFC South. That won't happen again, but quarterback Bryce Young taking another step in the right direction could have the Panthers flirting with double-digit wins, but a clear ceiling present with the player does give the Panthers an obvious limitation.
Young and the coaching staff regress big-time in a potential 3-14, 'floor' season.
Chicago Bears
Ceiling: 14-3
Floor: 8-9
The Bears offense takes a massive step forward, and the defense enjoys a similar fate in a major 14-3 season, which would likely be enough for the top NFC seed in the playoffs. However, the defensive changes not coming together and Caleb Williams not progressing in the right direction could have the floor in sight.
Dallas Cowboys
Ceiling: 11-6
Floor: 6-11
The Cowboys have totally remade the defensive side of the ball, including bringing in a new coordinator in Christian Parker. Those defensive changes elevate the unit to at least an average status, and that, coupled with an already top-10 offense, has Dallas breaking the 10-win barrier and earning 11 wins, also likely shoring up the NFC East title in a massive step in the right direction.
Detroit Lions
Ceiling: 15-2
Floor: 9-8
The Lions won 15 regular-season games in the 2024 NFL Season, so they have the roster talent to do it again. The defense comes together, and the offense remains potent in a throwback to 2024 with a 15-win season in 2026.
The floor, however, while high, would make for another disappointing season, as the defense continues to struggle, and the injuries keep piling up at the wrong time. The Lions should be able to finish with 11-12 wins in a much more efficient, well-rounded 2026 season.
Green Bay Packers
Ceiling: 12-5
Floor: 9-8
The Packers simply have a lot of 'good' on the roster, but not much great. This will continue to make the team a low-ceiling, high-floor club. Winning 12 games would be the ceiling here, as both the offense and defense likely each settle into a top-12 standing.
The floor, though, is similar to last year - injuries still hurt the club, and the team's lack of high-end talent makes the playoffs a stretch once again.
Los Angeles Rams
Ceiling: 16-1
Floor: 10-7
The Rams have what it takes to become the first 16-win team in the 17-game era. All would have to go right - Matthew Stafford is still playing out of his mind, and the secondary is much-improved. The floor, though, could be some unfortunate injuries plaguing the quarterback, as he's dealt with some bumps and bruises for years and is also approaching 40 years old.
Minnesota Vikings
Ceiling: 11-6
Floor: 8-9
Kyler Murray flirts with playing the best football of his career in a breakout first season with Minnesota, helping the team to a double-digit win season and, likely, a top Wild Card seed in the NFC. The talent on this team is quite good, but it's not overwhelming.
This should also make for a very high floor, as Kevin O'Connell is a rock-solid head coach, and, if nothing else, there is a history of modest production that Murray should bring to the team.
New Orleans Saints
Ceiling: 10-7
Floor: 5-12
The Saints won four of five games to end the 2025 NFL Season, so this team is on the right track. A year two breakout season from Tyler Shough and the defense taking another step forward has the Saints reaching 10 wins at best. The overall roster talent still needs some finishing touches, but the potential is there.
The floor would see Shough not get much better from his rookie season and the defense would remain in this middle tier, leading to a disappointing 5-win season.
New York Giants
Ceiling: 11-6
Floor: 5-12
Jaxson Dart is a legitimate dual-threat quarterback and could shock the NFL world in 2026 - he was quite productive as a rookie, and with a veteran coaching staff in place, a breakout is on the table. However, Dart's reckless method of playing could remain with him in 2026, leading to the offense failing to hit its potential.
The defense is solid on paper, but it's likely not going to be good enough to pick up the pieces if Dart and the offense can't improve.
Philadelphia Eagles
Ceiling: 12-5
Floor: 9-8
Philadelphia does have the roster talent to again be among the better teams in the NFL, but another new offensive coordinator and a quarterback with some clear limitations could hamper this team's ceiling. With some other teams on this list, though, there is a high floor with Philly, as the roster talent is excellent, and this team still manages to win a lot of games despite not coming off as the most stable team.
San Francisco 49ers
Ceiling: 14-3
Floor: 6-11
The 49ers again struggled with injuries, but the team managed to win 12 games in 2026. All of those injuries add up and can add another win or two onto any team's total. San Francisco enjoys a healthier year and a 14-win season, as this roster and coaching staff can both hang with the best in the league.
But, like a couple of seasons ago, the injuries can get so bad that this team just kind of falls off the rails a bit, leading to another shocking losing season under Kyle Shanahan.
Seattle Seahawks
Ceiling: 14-3
Floor: 9-8
The Seahawks could repeat the 2025 regular season in 2026 if things remain the same, and if nothing drastic impacts the team, but with a new offensive coordinator in place and quarterback Sam Darnold already having struggled with turnovers in 2025, the floor could be a fringe-playoff squad.
Many of the same players were on Seattle in 2024 when this team missed the playoffs at 10-7 - keep that in mind.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ceiling: 10-7
Floor: 7-10
Tampa Bay's ceiling is quite low, but they've been able to win the NFC South almost yearly at this point. The Bucs won't threaten in the playoffs, but if the offense and defense are stable, both units are just barely above-average but good enough for a 10-win campaign.
The floor might look similar to 2025 - injuries and inconsistencies lead to the second losing season in a row and another non-playoff campaign.
Washington Commanders
Ceiling: 12-5
Floor: 6-11
Washington could throw it back 2024 with a 12-5 ceiling record in 2026. All of the added talent comes together for Dan Quinn and his coaching staff, but the newness of everything prevents the Commanders from tapping into that top tier.
The floor, though, could be another year where injuries plague the roster, perhaps even at quarterback again, leading to the second non-playoff season in a row and two in three years in the Jayden Daniels era.